Rubah says:
I'd have to agree with u... but honestly.. the book has been giving away money the past few days. I make most of my wins from lines like this for the past few weeks... but the past 2 days I've been losing badly.... very badly... almost giving back everything that I've won from the past few weeks, well.. mostly cause of bad money management on my part... but still... this kind of crooked line have been going public's way for the past few days... example: New Jersey -2 yesterday...
That's why I have a feeling that the book is giving away money to public and will happen again for the next days... so I'll put extra caution on this line.
That being said... I will still take Toronto +3.5.. can't sway away from the playing style/system.

CheezeStack says:

Oh yea I forgot this...

  Nets -2 yesterday. The fuckers never had the lead once.

Rubah says:


Great info mach82... at least that gives a better reasoning to the line being set the way it is...

CheezeStack says:

Raptors today at +6.5*

CheezeStack says:

Turk's hip isn't near 80% but must play because when Bargnani gets 2 1st quarter fouls their offense becomes predictable.

I really think ORL can shoot 16/31 3PT today. They are insane from behind the arc.

Langer88 says:
 Ironic how everyone smells fish and assumes Raptors +3.5, this could be DD win for Orlando

rickydee says:
ORL are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Plus Adonal Foyle is not playing!

VGPOP says:


Wow. Magic are really short-handed.

The guy hasn't played this year!...

VGPOP says:
Let me give my opinion regarding this game and line.

We need to look at the current situation involving the teams in question.

When people see that this is the 2nd meeting between Magic and Raptors, and they see that Magic had already won in the first meeting without the services of Carter, Lewis, and Pietus. They now look at the line and Magic are laying less than this, they go crazy! and think they have an easy winner.

Again, I see we need to look at the current situation involving both teams.

When Magic faced Raptors on November 1st, it was the 3RD GAME of the season for each team. Magic were coming of a championship year where they won the Eastern Conference. They were 2-0, having won by double digits and Toronto was a team with a new identity coming off bad loss on the road against MEMPHIS after they just defeated Cavs at in their home opener.

Magic won by 9, and made 17 three pointers in that game. The line closed at -5.5.

And what do we have now?

Magic opened at -3 on the road (which is 2.5 less points than closing line from the first meeting)

What is the current situation?

Magic is 10-3, and Raptors is 6-7.

Magic is 4-2 on the road, and Raptors is 4-1 at home. And this means, the only loss Raptors have suffered at home has been against Magic.

So, Raptors have rebounded nicely with four straight home wins after that defeat.

First, This is a revenge game for them, and revenge games are huge in this sport. Line already indicated this. Magic could not open at a higher line than first meeting just because they have Carter, Lewis and Pietrus back. The revenge factor is already applied here and that is stronger than anything is the team in question has a good record (and I already pointed out that Raptors have won all four home games after facing Magic).

Second, this is a letdown game for Magic. And this also is reflected in the line. They just beat the Boston Celtics IN BOSTON and WITH Kevin Garnett healthy in the lineup, something they've had problems in the past. This is huge for Magic to be up 1-0 against Celtics and knowing they have a home Christmas meeting when they know they can take a 2-0 season series lead against them. I don't know if this worth half a point, 1 point of the line. Regardless, I personally believe when the sportsbooks started to give the line for this matchup , each and every individual who is responsible for making the line took this into consideration, as they always do.

Now, our job as bettors is to analyze the matchup.

Orlando is clearly the better defensive team of the two. They are both playing with a day rest. So, they are rested. Revenge game for Raptors. Letdown spot for Magic. Magic have Miami next, division matchup (not big of an issue, because Miami has returned to Earth after a strong start), while Raptors have Pacers at home. (No biggie).

maddencurse says:
I like the pick, I'm rolling with the raps too.

VGPOP says:
I forgot another important aspect. Jameer Nelson is not playing in this game. He had 30 points in the win against Toronto. This is another reason for the low line, this is huge aspect.

VGPOP says:

I was gong to answer him with something similar. I rather lose my play when I know I looked at every single angle, read all info available, analyzed head-to-toe rather than just go with "momentum"

In the long run, I will come ahead.

Canada_Chris says:

Sports betting is anything but momentum.  My play may have lost but at the end of year my "Too much thought" process always leads to profit.  Unlike the vast majority of clowns that are on this forum, I like to actually put some thought into my decisions rather than pin my hopes on "The Magic are a better team so they should win".

And what's this about get a life?!  Coming from a guy with 500+ posts in a month.

thatsagoodone says:

I love your threads Chris

165yds says:
Chris you are the best handicapper in the NBA forum, it's not even close.  TWolves ML today looks good.

Humbled2ManyTim says:

nbafan88 says:
i don't think the line could be made high enough on this game

public wins this one and gets killed by the knicks

TailingExpert says:
Canada_Chris - Keep the threads coming ... always appreciate your angle on games. 

karkeskam says:

Orlando is looking for a championship this year.  They won't get it most likely but they're in the hunt and a game like today is a statement game for this time of year.  Hate to say I said so but the better team prevailed easily in crunch time.

Zobb says:
i am staying away from this one.. GL Rap backers..