CarluchyH's Blog

HEDGE this parlay? All opinions please...

By CarluchyH | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, November 16, 2008 11:47 PM   39 comments
Just so you have an idea where I'm coming from...
 
Current Roll - $2,300.00
My average straight wager is 100-200 per.
 
 
Parlay / 2CFE9... 2008-11-16 15:53 $200.00 $2667.14 -- Placed
NFL/G- (Arizona @ Seattle) Arizona Point Spread -3 (-110) 2008-11-16 16:30 Win
NFL/G- (St. Louis @ San Francisco) San Francisco Money Line -285 2008-11-16 16:30 Win
NFL/G- (Tennessee @ Jacksonville) Tennessee Point Spread -2.5 (-105) 2008-11-16 16:50 Win
NFL/G- (Dallas @ Washington) Dallas Point Spread -1.5 (-115) 2008-11-16 20:20 Win
NFL/G- (Cleveland @ Buffalo) Buffalo Money Line -240 2008-11-17 20:35 Placed

Cleveland is +180 on the ML.  I was thinking of laying 600 on the Browns ML to get back 1,080.  More?  Less?  Will more money be coming in on Buffalo???

I've never been in this situation and I actually think Cleveland has a chance tomorrow night.  All comments good and bad will be much apprecciated...

Report Abuse
 
39 comments
comment Post A Comment
vanzack says:
11/16/08 11:49PM
I would hedge that avatar.

 

Vols1120 says:
11/16/08 11:51PM
Maybe play CLE..or wait until HT, and make a 2H wager..that way maybe you could double up..or middle and make more..that's what I have done in the past..GL though..that's a good play you have there..well done so far..
DiscoD69 says:
11/16/08 11:51PM
"I actually think Cleveland has a chance tomorrow night"

 

If you think so, then hedge it for sure.

 

as per the amount idk...adjust the amount by the chances you think each team has of winning....(I like the Bills myself)

 

PS - unreal all those public plays hit....

 

BOL on Monday night

BryGuy247 says:
11/16/08 11:51PM
place $1,000 on browns +5

and hope for bills to win from 1-5

easy decision in my opinion

CarluchyH says:
11/16/08 11:52PM
Nolan_Blake says:
11/16/08 11:53PM
DON'T HEDGE....If you didn't believe strongly that they'd win it shouldn't be on your card
Rickerbockers says:
11/16/08 11:55PM
Why not bet Cleveland +5 for $1,000????  That way, either way, you win money.  And, you could even hit the jackpot if Buffalo were to win by 3 or something.
BKING says:
11/16/08 11:57PM
Stay with the Buffalo play
BryGuy247 says:
11/16/08 11:57PM

 

prescisely what I had said!

good thinking ricker

CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 12:00AM
That actually sounds better than Cleveland ML
BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 12:05AM

that way you're guaranteed $1,000 and hit big with a buffalo win by less than 5

again,its a no brainer

Leroy-Bombers says:
11/17/08 12:07AM

FUCK that. Anything you do your in the . Personally In these situations i like to teaser the last leg with a SOLID teaser.  The +190 ML is so juicy. You bet 1.2k on the ML your either a $1000 or $1400 winner, which is about 50% increase in your bankroll either way. Money management.

Great Job on the parlay either way bro.

 

CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 12:09AM
Leroy - Makes sense...thanks for the backup!!
BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 12:09AM
taking + 5 still gives you a chance at winning $1,000 on that bet and still hitting your parlay

maximize expected value with a play on cleveland +5

BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 12:11AM

this is not to be debated

but take the same $1,200 and put it on cle +5

cleveland wins, you win $1,200

buffalo wins by more than 5 you net $1,400

buffalo wins by 1-4 you win $3,800

buffalo wins by 5, you win $2,600

this is by far the right way to go

you must see this by now

BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 12:12AM
sorry, I haven't factored in the moneyline odds in taking cleveland straight up

still think +5 is the way to go

NeverMind says:
11/17/08 12:13AM
I had $1500 this Sunday morning and was in a similar situation and I HEDGED my bet, resulting in doubling my account to $3655.65

My advice would be to HEDGE your bet, take the "for sure" money. I know Buffalo is the favor and the 2K sounds nice, but I would settle for the sure money bro. Good luck whichever you decide to do.
TRAIN69 says:
11/17/08 12:16AM
you must try to middle...also, wait and you may get +6......

i would also take the browns +whatever and parlay it with some ncaa favorites on the ml (8-12 point favs witha ml of -400 to -500....take 5 or 6 favs and put 100 on each 2 team parlay....it makes each parlay +100 or better....

gl


redwally says:
11/17/08 12:17AM
bryguy!! This is one of the reasons I've been on this site so long!!
maxdreamer says:
11/17/08 11:55PM
smart hedge
gmitran says:
11/17/08 01:08AM
In this case, your first thought is Buf winning game but not cover the spread then stick w/ that and bet $1K Cle +5 per prev suggestion and hope for middle OR play it safe and wager $1050 on Cle ML for guarantee ~$1700 win and not sweating out game at all.  Given your payroll and unit bet, I'd go w/ option 2 and take the nite off.  75% payroll increase is a successful yr, much less weekend.

Greek has Cle +200 ML now BTW.
----------------
Separate issue - Another advice I'd give is don't include MNF in any  parlays.  Parlay

the other Sun games then you can always add MNF after a day of thinking

it over. It's no lose situation as you will still have exact same

option as you do now but w/o the stress of how or if to hedge.  Hedging

also requires money in account now and sometimes one do not always have

enough.


Only way I may add MNF in parlay is if I know the lines will move negatively on side I'm picking.

gmitran says:
11/17/08 01:17AM


Not disagreeing w/ your choice but it's +900 if Cle wins.
JB2275 says:
11/18/08 05:10AM
i want to hedge that ass on that avatar!
Rickerbockers says:
11/17/08 12:27AM

 

Taking CLE +5 is the way to go.  Good minds think alike.  You win money either way.  Plus, the opportunity to win both bets is very realistic.  It's a no-brainer like my man bryguy says. 

The CLE ML is not a bad bet.  But, I believe CLE +5 is better due to the opportunity of winning both bets . . . . the parlay and the str8 CLE bet.

Good luck w/ whatever you do.

BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 12:32AM

i'll be cheering for you man

another note

supposed to be bad weather

this means potential close game

bills by 3

let's do this

BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 11:49PM
you shitting yourself yet carluchy?
what an insane ending for you
BryGuy247 says:
11/17/08 11:54PM
that was horrible
ibra_inter8 says:
11/18/08 12:11AM
Wow if he hits that field goal you woulda won them both...that woulda been sweet
Johnboy85 says:
11/17/08 11:52PM
Good luck dude, this kick will be big.
Johnboy85 says:
11/17/08 11:53PM
Well that sucked, but something is better than nothing!
CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 12:22AM
CarluchyH says:
11/18/08 12:16AM
Yeah I know...

 

Oh well, at least the hedge worked out.  Thanks guys!

CarluchyH says:
11/18/08 12:03AM
Thank God for the hedge!!
CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 12:38AM
Yeah I was just looking into the weather.  You think it might drop to 4 or 4.5 by tomorrow afternoon?  Should I take the 5 now??
CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 12:30AM
I'm thinking Cleveland and the points is what I'm gonna do.  Thanks guys!!
CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 01:49AM

Just wanted to thank everyone for all the suggestions!!

Good luck to all of you!

CarluchyH says:
11/17/08 07:48PM
I went ahead and put $1200 on the Browns +5...

 

Thank you all and best of luck to everyone!!

 

dillon24 says:
11/17/08 07:51PM
depends on how much you want to win...hedge the middle and you are guaranteed half...hedge the original bet and its all or nothing.. its all up to how you feel,,, somethings better than nothing...but nothing, is better than a negative
BigHans says:
11/18/08 12:06AM
I was in the exact same boat as you man, went for the middle as well.  Thank God for Hedging.
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: CarluchyH
Joined: July 2008
Location: California
Team: San Francisco Giants
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

Recent Posts

Archive

open2010
open2009
open2008

Categories

Advertisement