This is my first NFL Wager blog and it has been prompted by a very prosperous 2008 and Playoff season. I had an eight week winning streak with a couple dips in the beginning and end but the good has been much better than the bad.
The key to my success has been staying away from all props, placing only straight wagers on the NFL, and keeping a consistant per week wager amount. I would vary my weekly per play wager amount from 100-500 chickens depending on my personal monthly budget and feelings toward the games. For 8 straight weeks my winning percentage was over 60%. I stayed focused on what I labled strong games.
The Super Bowl is a different monster. Typically the game is a blowout. This year I can't see the Steelers defense being trampled by anyone in the league, including the three headed attack of Fitzgerald, Warner, and Boldin. I'm not even worried about James. So I believe it will be a Steeler game. Smart money should be on the under of 47. 500 chickens is my jump off point for Super Sunday.
If I was a nail biting broke kid looking to turn the corner I would stop here with only holding action on the under but since this is the Super Bowl and I have a winning season on my hands I am looking to pad the wallet.
I typically do not touch moneylines unless I'm looking for an easy favorite win. In otherwords I don't try to turn a nickle into a dollar. It's not for me. I feel like you could litterally flip a coin with the current points spread. While I truley believe the Steelers will win Super Bowl 45 the Cardinals have a different plan. To hedge my under wager I will lay an additional/even 500 on the Cardinals.
Here's my thought process. I believe the Steelers will make this their game which includes a total under 47 points. (+500). If the Cardinals do "Shock the World" then the +7 will do the trick. (+500). For the Birds to cover I risk losing the under but I don't expect to lose both. While my logic may be tainted, I feel as if I'm risking the vig of 50 chickens to win 1,000. I truely do.
Right now the Cardinals are recieving 7 points, this should increase as the game comes near. I will wait till game time to take advantage of a Steeler happy country and am already locked into the under. I hope to gain an additional 1/2 - 1 point for free.
Yes the Steelers will win this game but the Cardinals can cover. I love the under and will take the Cardinal points for security. The moneylines are foolish in this game but hey, somtimes it's better to be lucky than good. GOOD LUCK!