Charlie111's Blog

An inside look at the Ole Miss / S Caro game

By Charlie111 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2009 05:04 PM   16 comments
It is currently Ole Miss -3.
I could see this game moving back to -4, but who knows.  A lot of people think Ole Miss is the easy play, but lets look at this matchup a little closer.
 
S Carolina is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS. 
They won their first game 7-3 against NCst.  I agree it was an ugly game, but it was the first game of the year and on the road in front of a hungry rowdy crowd.  They had 16 first downs to NC's 11, and they outyarded NC 256 to 133 (+123 yards).  An ugly win, but a deserving win.
 
They then played another tough road game at Georgia in a game they lost 41-37.  But they could have won this game.  They had 26 first downs to Georgia's 16.  SC had 427 total yards to Ga's 308, a difference of 119 yards.  Georgia was lucky to win this game.
 
SC then played Fl Atlantic and was favored by 20.5.  They won 38-16 so they got the ATS cover.  SC and Fl AT both had 21 first downs, but SC outyarded them 516 to 307 (209 yards)  Oh, I'm sure many will say that Fl AT got killed by NEB 49-3,  But in that game, FL AT and Neb both had 22 first downs and Nebraska out-yarded them by 135 yards.  A little closer game than the score suggests.
 
Let's look at Ole Miss.  They are 2-0 and I'm only counting the Memphis game as a real game.  In that game, the Rebs won 45-14, but this game was 24-14 with 7 minutes left in the game.  Ole Miss had 22 first downs to 19 for Memphis.  Total yards were 349 for Ole Miss and 269 for Memphis (only a 80 yard difference.)  Snead is a solid QB, but he did not look good against a poor Memphis defense.  I will admit that Ole Miss probably didn't want to show their whole playbook against Memphis, so there is an unknown here.  But still this was a showcase game for Ole Miss and I'm sure they wanted to be more impressive early in the game.
 
So we have a top quality matchup in my opinion.  Ole Miss has to be favored as per their ranking and last year's wins over Florida and Texas Tech.  Plus you have the ol revenge factor in that S Caro beat Ole Miss in Oxford last year. 
 
My opinion:  Ole Miss is going to face a VERY much improved S Carolina team that will be excited about having a highly ranked team coming to their place.  S Carolina has played a better schedule and could be 3-0 instead of 2-1.  The SC defense is going to play well, the crowd is going to loud, and Ole Miss is going to be inconsistent and make mistakes. The Gamecocks is going to pull the upset and win by a TD.  I don't think this game will be high-scoring.  Something like 27-20 is my prediction.
 
 
16 comments
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lowlifedave says:
09/23/09 09:37PM
Is Miss overrated, we'll certainly see thursday night. I personally think they are way overrated. I believe the old football coach will give them a game at home. Also, is Alabama overrated? Being Crimson Tide Alumni I could be a little bias, but to be honest Alabama scares me. I'm not quite sold on the offensive line yet. There defence speaks volumes, but to beat LSU, and even Tennesee they will have to score points. As long as they can run the ball and control the clock they will be seeing Florida in the SEC championship. Again to run the ball and control the clock your offensive line has to be complete, and I really don't think they are there yet..we'll see.
oilfieldt says:
09/24/09 08:37AM
Don't under estimate Ol Miss this year.
Charlie111 says:
09/24/09 09:31AM

This should be an excellant exciting game.  Making a regular play on the home dog.

 

S Carolina +4 (1 unit)

 

Season YTD after Week 3

3 units (4-1) +8.7 units

2 units (6-4) +3.8 units

1 unit (7-2) +4.8 units

YTD +16.7 units

Beaver90lb says:
09/24/09 09:32AM
Don't under estimate the Thursday night home underdog...

I also like the upset win here.

bookillr says:
09/24/09 09:36AM
I like it Charlie....Good luck....I'm laying off as I'm a South Carolina grad, but I like the write up and I can't argue...Seems like a trap to me with the line being so low and the majority of the nation being up Ole Miss' rearend....
bigsam0316 says:
09/24/09 09:49AM
GOOD JOB BROTHER LOVE THE UNDER
Wizerguy says:
09/24/09 09:54AM
Like the writeup GL   

 

Im on SCar.

dalec says:
09/24/09 09:56AM
Nice notes dude !! However there is no doubt that Ole Miss will cover this one !! Geo def and ole miss def is two totally different teams ! S.C. will learn that the hard way tonite !
mpigpen16 says:
09/24/09 10:21AM
Charlie111:

 

Nice write up, very valid points.  Has anyone taken into account that UM is playing their first quality opponent on the ROAD, on THURDAY night?  UM was traveling yesterday while USC got to sleep in their beds.  USC has had more time to prepare during this short week of practice.  USC will be more prepared for this game. 

 

Also, why does everyone think UF and TENN was so close last week?  Because UF opened to Charleston and Troy and it took them a quarter to catch up to the speed of Tenn's D.  Same thing will happen to UM.  They have played two horrible teams and will struggle early to catch up to the speed of USC.  Meanwhile USC has already faced a decent test in Georgia and a mediocre test in NC ST.

 

Take the points at home on Thurday night!

Jimmag says:
09/24/09 10:22AM
Good info and you make strong points to take the dog tonight.

Good luck Charlie
Jonzy92000 says:
09/24/09 10:22AM
The under is the play. 
maitr3 says:
09/24/09 10:34AM
anyone who has actually capped this game will tell you that it can go either way.  if you're a solid capper you would pass on this game.. no questions asked. 
metbill says:
09/24/09 11:23AM
Don't forget, USC also gets Ladi Abijoye, big time DE back from a three game suspension as well as CC Whitlock, back for tonights game.  Ladi is a big difference maker and will help USC to stuff the run.  Snead will have no other choice but to win it with his arm, as the big boys minus Peppers are on the Dline tonight.
Charlie111 says:
09/24/09 11:24AM
Maitr3

 

You are probably right.  I think this line is about right for the game and I should probably pass.  But I do have some degenerate in me, even though not as much in years past.  There's no way I could go 2 units or higher on this game. 

 

And, Bateman, I agree that nothing is easy.  This is a tough hobby, but an fun one. 

gkastanza says:
09/24/09 11:34AM
GL2U 
eliminat0r85 says:
09/24/09 05:26PM
GL man. I feel this can go either way as Snead has been average at best in the first games and this is his chance to prove why he deserves a Heisman on national television. As well as south carolina is overrated on this upset based on a game where Georgias defense played horribly on top of the fact that South Carolina pretty much has Georgias number every time they've played lately. The X factor that i think people are forgetting which you touched on is last year after ole' Miss stunning upset of florida as people were going is ole miss for real, they lost to south carolina at home, as well as Bama a week later. So I see this match kind of being revenge for last year, I'm sure its on all of Ole Miss players of last years minds what could have been if we would have beat south carolina and bama. So I see ole' miss to actually come out on fire and make a statement in this game early. Of course they could easily look terrible till the half like they have their first few games and lose to south carolina again. Im taking ole' miss but not betting huge.
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