Chief-Starks's Blog

Week 8 Value Plays

By Chief-Starks | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 19, 2009 01:03 AM   18 comments

10-24 Week 8 NCAA Football

Record Posted YTD: 5-3

On the lines early this week, definately going to be watching the movement...I'll be putting plays/thoughts here through the week. Here we go..

Maryland @ Duke (-6)

Lean: Duke - 6 ... I really like them in this spot here. Coming off a bye week so they've had extra time to prepare for the Terps. Looks like it opened @ -7 and now is down to -6 so hopefully the public stays on Maryland and gets this even lower. Duke's QB Lewis is a stud over 1600 passing yds 12td 2 int very effective, doing it quietly though. Duke scoring 32 a game and has the stingier defense here. Duke averaging 41 ppg their last 3. Terps giving up 47 ppg and 520+ yds away. Maryland's leading rusher also out for season..

The Play: DUKE - 6

More to come..

18 comments
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Chief-Starks says:
10/19/09 01:10AM

Oregon ST (+21) @ USC

Lean: Letdown spot for USC here. They dominated Notre Dame last week but failed to cover -- I was on the Trojans. Again I love the Beavers coming off the bye, Oregon St is a quiet 4-2 and will do their best to knock off USC, like last year. Oregon ST is still in the Pac 10 title race, I think this one is closer than everyone thinks.

The Play: Oregon ST (+21)

nostradamus12 says:
10/19/09 09:52AM
I think USC will be motivated this week after last year, whether it's enough or not for 3 TDs is another question, GL
1bajalife says:
10/19/09 09:57AM
Revenge will not be a factor for USC this week, just survival and keep winning. Oregon St +3 TD's
topperchris says:
10/19/09 01:19PM
Like the Duke Play...Please keep updating the picks GL
Chief-Starks says:
10/19/09 05:29PM

 

Right I think SC's will be in a tough one, hopefully Ore ST has a few wrinkles to throw at em.

Adding...

Georgia Tech @ Virginia(+ 4.5)

Lean: Virginia +4.5 ... Virginia has played quality opponents all season and still in the race for the ACC, I want to say they are 2-0 in confrence play. Groh will have the defense ready to go, just like two years. Sewell the QB for Virginia is questionable but I think he goes. Virginia SU

The Play: VIRGINIA + 4.5

Chief-Starks says:
10/19/09 05:54PM
Adding..

 

Idaho (+13.5) @ Nevada

 

Lean: Idaho +13.5...This one is a gift here. Huge misconception on Nevada, they are a solid team and I do like Caepernick at QB, they looked alright against Mizzou and LA Tech on national tv. I was on them last week against Utah St and got bit. They NEVER shouldve won that game Utah St controlled the game 3 and a half quarters and let it slip away.

 

Line keeps going up which just shows me people have no idea about Idaho, 6-1 SU 7-0 ATS. Both these teams average 30 apiece with Idaho having the stingier defense here. They haven't beaten these boys since '99 but they've got the team to get it done this year.

 

The play: Idaho +13.5

Ch33z says:
10/19/09 05:57PM
i think OSU is a really good bet..sanchez couldnt do anything last year so what makes you think a freshman qb can do anything?
Chief-Starks says:
10/19/09 06:11PM

Yeah the Rodgers brothers will keep Ore ST in this one, they're a solid team just lost a few tough ones. Still in it though, hopefully they'll take some things away from teams that have beaten SC. Either way this one is well within 21.

kittsd says:
10/19/09 06:17PM
Like Oregon St and will stick with Idaho untilthey don't cover - 
Chief-Starks says:
10/19/09 06:53PM

Adding..

Auburn @ LSU - 7.5

Lean: LSU -7.5 is another gift here. Opened at 11 and since then looks like you guys are on Auburn because it just keeps going lower lol.. Auburn off two SU loses, a thrashing at the hands of Arkansas and a SU loss vs Kentucky..hunh? Auburn should've also lost @ home to WVA who dominated them that entire game, and on the road to Tennesee. Very well could be 3-4 here. LSU off a bye week and that SU loss to Florida snapping their 31 night game winning streak @ home.

QB play for LSU sometimes is a problem, but I think the running game will get it done. Auburn will soon be the Iowa St of the SEC you will see. lol LSU resolidifies itself in the SEC here and Auburn shows you who they really are. Cyclone power lol..

The pick: LSU -7.5 (and going lower..)

Also...

Florida @ Miss St (+ 23)

Lean: Miss ST +23. Way too many pts here for Florida to be laying on the road after the down-to-the-wire game with Arkanasas. Bulldogs are off a bye here with some revenge in mind..Home team has won and covered the past 4 games in this matchup. Florida has played 4 conference games this year, 3 of those were won by 10. In other words Florida is not scoring many points this year and they have a number of questionable players on defense. Florida also plays GA next week in the largest tailgating party..I know GA isnt spectacular this year but something to take into consideration. Miss St averages 220 on the ground they'll be able to run a bit and manage the game to the point where they WILL have a shot. I'll take Miss St @ home with the points.

The play: MISSISSIPPI ST (+23)

topperchris says:
10/19/09 07:37PM
I think Mullins knows Flordia offense from being on staff at Flordia... I like the 23...

Miss St +23 looks good.. I thought the line would be 14...Are we missing something

Chief-Starks says:
10/20/09 02:25AM
Loving what Im seeing so far in the line movement as far as the Duke vs Maryland game..

 

Duke opened @ -7 and now its down to - 4.5. Huge misconception here on Maryland and people not understanding how improved the Duke program is.

 

Duke SU  

 

Alot of more value plays im capping a few now..BOL to all

Chief-Starks says:
10/20/09 02:32AM
topperchris - I dont think we're missing anything. Like you said Mullins will incorporate his knowledge of Florida and it looks like ppl are biting on FL, seen it at 23.5 in a place or two..hope that continues to rise 24.5 is a hell of a gift lol..

BOL Bro we'll clean up this weekend.

Chief-Starks says:
10/20/09 11:17AM

Adding

Connecticut (+7) @ West VA

Lean: UCONN +7...First RIP to the cornerback Jasper from the Huskies. If you dont know what happened there you live under a rock. UCONN has also covered their 6 games going 6-0 ats and there ground game is actually just about equal to WVA. Both defenses defend the run pretty good, which is both of these teams strenghts. I'll take a very efficient Cody Endres (4td/1int, 900+ yds) over Geno Smith, who doesn't have much experience at all. They will be able to move the ball and score points on WVA, averaging 37 ppg over their last 3 contests. Jarrett Brown the QB for WVA is also doubtful with a concussion. WVA's won the past 5 meetings but there's no better time for UCONN to get their first win of the series in a long time. They get it done here

The pick: UCONN (+7)..if it gets to +8 pound it harder.

Chief-Starks says:
10/23/09 07:59PM

Plays..

Idaho +15.5
Oregon St +21.5
Mississippi St +23.5
Texas -13.5
Duke -5.5
LSU -7.5
Air Force +9.5
Washington St + 35.5
UCONN +7.5
TX Tech -21.5
Arizona -7.5
Iowa St +20.5
Minnesota +17.5
Pitt -6.5
Virginia +5.5
Boston College +7.5
BYU -1.5
Arizona St +6.5
LA Tech -1.5
Michigan +4.5

Leans on..

Buffalo +5.5
Vanderbilt +12.5
Bowling Green +7.5
Miami -4.5
Syracuse -10.5
Louisville +18.5

BOL

Mikado says:
10/23/09 09:44PM
Really like your picks.  I might be the only one on this forum that may agree with your UVA pick.  I'm waiting until gameday to see how high the line goes.  Watch out though with Duke.  I agree Lewis is completely underrated but he carries this team right now.  With the heavy rain forecast for Durham this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if if both teams have to resort to pounding the ball through the ground (which translates to a UMD win in the trenches battle).  I'm liking the Under in both the UVA and Duke games.  I see GT fumbling the ball all over the place.  Watchout with Miami, Clemson has the ACC's best offensive weapon in CJ Spiller.  Jacory Harris will be under pressure all day by Clemson's line.  Hit that Miss St line hard!


buckeye34 says:
10/23/09 10:05PM
 gl
Chief-Starks says:
10/25/09 05:09PM

You were right on with both of the warnings, Duke did come out on top but only by the 4, the rain did slow them down with fumbles, etc. Same with Miami, let Clemson get loose on them. Appreciate the advice. Good week overall though.

What i learned from week 8 momentarily...

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User: Chief-Starks
Joined: October 2009
Location: Nebraska
Team: Nebraska Cornhuskers
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