Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 12:07 AM
NBA YTD: 314-220-13
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5
Magic had a field day against the Cavs and has rested their starters almost looking forward to play a new team. Orlando is playing 3 games in 4 nights. They are 4-8 ATS on back to back games and is only 9-14-1 ATS on the road. The key here is that since the trade they are only 2-5 SU/ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record be it SU/ATS.
Posted Sunday, January 30, 2011 07:38 AM
NBA YTD: 314-220-13
Last Week: 24-8
All of 'em are plays already. Los Angeles Lakers -3.0Denver Nuggets -2.0Cleveland Cavaliers +17.0New Orleans Hornets +1.0
Posted Saturday, January 29, 2011 12:00 AM
NBA YTD: 312-219-13
This Week: 22-7
Friday: 5-2 (Bobcats still pending)
Atlanta Hawks@Dallas Mavericks UNDER 189.0Rest of the leans for Saturday:
- Toronto Raptors +4.5
- Washington Wizards +9.0
- Houston Rockets +8.5
- New Orleans Hornets -6.0
- Bobcats@Clippers UNDER 195.5
Posted Friday, January 28, 2011 12:50 AM
NBA YTD: 307-217-13
This Week: 17-5
Wednesday: 3-1Denver Nuggets -10.0
Cleveland? Really now. Nuggets is really picking things up and the Melo drama allowed a number of players from the bench to show case their stuff making the Nuggets even more scary offensively. The only way to stop them right now is have the size to keep them out of the lane or out shoot them, two things the Cavs doesn't have. Both teams should be pretty fresh with the Nuggets having a night off after every game to the the Cavs' 2 days off. Sure, Nuggets are horrible on the road but at the rate they're going, it's almost easy to not give much weight on that 7-13 SU / 8-11-1 ATS on the road card specially when you put it side by side with the Cavs' 5-14 SU / 6-13 ATS at home and has lost the game by 8 points or more in 9 of their last 10 games and 4 of their last 5 home games. Really bad for the Cavs who has dipped 25% in team sales.
Posted Thursday, January 27, 2011 01:02 AM
NBA YTD: 304-216-13
This Week: 14-4
Dallas Mavericks -5.5
Bad spot for the Rockets. Playing 3 games in 4 nights and actually playing 5 games in 7 days. They did played 3 fast paced games and fatigue should be a huge factor. Then, will be playing a Mavs' team who's 10th in defensive efficiency and 6th in points allowed with 94.4. Trends doesn't really mean much since both teams cancels each other out in some spots. Don't get me wrong, this one isn't a lock or anything. If the Rockets have a favorable schedule, I'd probably be on them instead. Dallas won 3 of their last 5 but those were ugly wins. Dirk is almost there with his numbers except his FG% is way down. They had a hard time against Jersey and had an ugly win against the Clippers. I think that one game should pretty much serve as a wake up game for them to keep things together. In the past, both teams splits their last two season series with only one game being decided by 6 points or less.
In their 11/29/10 matchup, Nowitzki and Butler came up big with key runs in the second and the fourth quarter. Mavs shot almost 50% from the field while limiting the Rockets to 36 which the Mavs could barely do the last 5 games. They were almost even in every other stat except for a 39-47 rebounding edge in favor of the Mavs. Again, the play is one against the bad scheduling and fatigue factor for the Rockets catching a rested Mavericks team who plays much better at home and even better with... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 26, 2011 12:32 AM
5-2 Tuesday (given the Cats ATS and ML win already and counted the Jazz as an L already. LOL). 9-3 for the week. 299-215-13 for the year.
Toronto Raptors +4.0
76ers is playing a lot better than they were in November. The Raptors, although win-less in 8 straight games, have played the better teams in the league pretty close and has never lost their drive in playing harder. In the two games the Raptors won, almost 3 quarters always end up tied in scoring with almost every other stat ending up equal. Stats and trends would tell us to play the 76ers because they are better but in this match up, the 76ers seem to always have a hard time against the Raptors dating even the two seasons.
To get a better look let's examine each matchup in this game. At point guard it's pretty much even except for Calderon (I believe Calderon will be ready for this matchup) being able to hold his own and dictate the tempo of the game better than Holiday. Turner won't get the start he used to and won't have a better game like he did against Phoenix. This will be a huge plus for the Raptos because Meeks will probably have to guard De Rozan who's 3 inches teller and has shown explosiveness in his game since Bargnani fell to injury. At the Forward spot, it's either Iggy gets on his groove (he rarely have a good shooting night against the Raptors) or Wright gets all over him on defense. He'll probably have his average in this game and that's pretty much about it. I believe it's safe to sa... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 25, 2011 12:42 AM
Late win with the OVER in San Antonio 3-1 Monday. That's 4-1 for the week already pushing us to 294-213-13.
Denver Nuggets@Washington Wizards UNDER 211.0
Okay, now let's have fun with math: Wizards is playing 3 games in 4 night and is a 3-5-0 ATS team on the second game of a back to back night. On a 3-4 set up, they are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U as well. What's interesting is that they average almost 92 ppg on that area while allowing almost a 100 ppg which perhaps opens a case on a Denver play as well. That's an average of 192 ppg which is a comfortable 15 points below the set total.
Wizards are 6-16 O/U at home as to the Nuggets' 6-12 O/U on the road which gives us a bit of confidence with the trend backing us. Right now, using the average of both teams' game Washington (averging 198 per game) combined with Denver (211) easily averages 204.5 but that's just simple math. 202 points is taken from when you take their home-road production. Their last 5 on the other hand averages to 207. That's around 4 to 9 points discrepancy given both teams play up to it. Since both team seem to be trending on losing, Nuggets is 6-11 ATS on the road 5-13 SU and also 9-12-3 ATS after resting a day between games, we can expect say around 8 total point of error for the numbers we stated which leads us to concluding that it may be pretty close to the total at the end of the game.
Still going with the UNDER here given the trend and averages which ended up a couple of ... [More]
Posted Monday, January 24, 2011 08:20 PM
I was hoping this would happen. You know how the Detroit Pistons are.
Orlando Magic -12.0 2nd Half
Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 10:38 PM
Won Denver last night and good win by the Steelers. Only one play that I like for Monday.
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
Bad spot for the Suns. Last game of an already successful 5 game road trip (winning 3 already). Suns is a decent 10-12-1 ATS after a day of rest and is also fair with 10-11 ATS card on the road. Our ATS machine in Philadelphia is 13-7 SU/ATS at home and boasts a 12-2-1 ATS record after resting a day. 76ers are playing really well at home and has a bit of the upper hand here since they guard the pick and roll pretty well and at the same time having quick players to guard the weak side. This basically allows the 76ers to keep up with the Suns last season and gave them a 123-110 win in Phoenix late in December. It should be pretty close game since I don't see the 76ers doubling the same performance. Seriously, Spencer Hawes getting a double-double, Turner shot 64% from the field en route to 23 points and Nocioni playing a 22-12 type of game. Of course, no Iggy back then. Suns were their usual self, except for Pietrus scoring 15 in 25 minutes.
Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 10:11 AM
Denver Nuggets -8.5
Bad spot for the Pacers. Back to back games playing the second in Denver which is a pretty hard thing to do. Even tougher when you're playing the last one of a win less four game road trip where 3 of which are actually winnable. The only thing that worries me is Carmelo's motivation specially how hostile the fans are to his trade stance. Also the Pacers may be just a decent team going 4-5 ATS back to back but Denver is also 10-12 ATS after a day of rest. They also look pretty bad winning only 5 of their last 10. Good thing Pacers only managed 3 of their last 10.
Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 09:39 AM
Chicago Bears ML
GB@CHI UNDER 42.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
NYJ@PITS UNDER 38.5
Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 06:17 PM
5-4 last friday. Here's for Saturday:
Dallas Mavericks -4.5
Charlotte Bobcats -2.5
Phoenix Suns -1.5
Philadelphia 76ers -2.0
Posted Friday, January 21, 2011 03:49 AM
0-3 Thursday night. Going to playing two to three plays a day again. 280-208-13 for the year and 15-15-1 for the week but still offer my insight on games:
Detroit played a hell of a game against the Celtics only to lose in the 4th (again). Jersey settled down after the Melodrama and won against the Jazz which is quite huge after losing 6 straight. I like the Nets here because the home team usually gets the win in this matchup. The weaker nets team from last season even managed to win one game and keep the other two close. They're pretty much better now defensively and rebounds a lot better. Pistons isn't much of a team on the road and always find ways to lose the game. UNDER also seem to be a good total since the Pistons finds a hard time putting up points on the road. Nets is pretty good defensively and both teams are 3rd and 4th in the league with the slowest pace.
Liking the Raptors here. They are playing really well and is a persistent team. They lack the front court to match Orlando but Bargnani could pretty much even it out with his offense. Last game, where they won by 4, he went to score 27 points and is a +8 when he's playing. DeRozan exploded to 26 and can pretty much follow it up scoring 25ish the last two games. I'm not expecting them to but I see them just enough to cover like the Spurs game. Orlando is tied at 5th in defensive efficiency and I bet not a lot of people gives them credit for it. Anyway, I like how they match with the Magic and should ... [More]
Posted Thursday, January 20, 2011 01:01 AM
Charlotte Bobcats -5.0
Dallas Mavericks +3.5
Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
Posted Wednesday, January 19, 2011 01:06 AM
NBA YTD: 273-198-13
This Week: 7-5-1
The Jazz@Nets game has a similar scenario to the PHO@NYK game. Nets coming back from a tough road stretch even and playing the first game at home. That one day off shouldn't be enough and players should still be feeling the fatigue playing for almost a week on the road. I know the Jazz didn't look good last time they opened their road trip in Washington and I'm guessing they're getting less from Paul Millsap. He was hustling early in the season and seem his energy faltered after getting hurt. Anyway, Jazz dominates the Nets in almost every other trend and so no point in putting it down. Matchup wise, Nets are in a disadvantage but not too much. As long as Lopez continues his steady play and pouring in the points plus the Nets keep on securing the rebound they should be able to match the Jazz' front court. The last time the both played this season, Anthony Morrow has to put up 20+ points to keep it within 10. I believe we'll see another similar performance from both teams with the Jazz edging them and securing the game and spread. Jazz looks like an easy pickem in this game which bettors should be careful. Utah Jazz -6.5.
Orlando just had a tough road trip winning only 2 of the 5 road games. Playing their first game back against a 76ers team who looked pretty decent in their last 6 games. In their last meet, Philadelphia was a 6.5-point dog and won the game SU. Revenge game? Nah. Orlando has beaten the 76er... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 18, 2011 01:20 AM
NBA YTD: 272-198-13
This Week: 6-5-1
Charlotte Bobcats played in OT last night and it most likely than not a good spot to fade them especially when they're playing the 4th game in 5 nights. Cats' starter played 40 minutes last night in the OT loss to the 76ers where the Bulls, although some of the starters logged 40, they did took the 4th quarter off. Bulls is playing 4 in 5 as well. Bulls is 12-7-2 ATS at home to the Cats' 8-9 ATS on the road (now 7-4 ATS with Paul Silas). This is pretty much the same setup as with the 76ers. Cats plays the Bulls pretty well and with Thomas back from a one game suspension expect that they can compete some more with them. Historically, the Cats fares well against the Bulls asking them to cover 8 points should be a tall task. I'm going with my gut here playing the Charlotte Bobcats +8.0
. Should be interesting 2nd half if ever the Cats caught them by surprise. It should be too many points for the Bulls to cover. As for the total, given the fact that both teams may be feeling a bit of fatigue now, it should affect both teams' game and shot pretty much around their average of 45%. Since Bulls plays way better defense I believe they limit the cats to around 40%. If I were to play I'm going with the UNDER 185.0
.Projected line for Atlanta +6.5 @ Miami 189.5
Posted Monday, January 17, 2011 07:39 PM
Boston Celtics -3.0
Portland Trailblazers -7.5
Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
Posted Monday, January 17, 2011 02:55 AM
NBA YTD: 268-195-12
What a let down with the Lakeshow. Anyway, I am getting a good amount of time for capping games now and so let's get that winning rate high up again. On to monday games...
New York's last game against Sacramento was brutal. First game back home after a tough western road trip. Anyway, I love the Knicks in this spot. First up, Knicks are generally better at home. They are 10-8 SU and 9-8-1 ATS which almost translates to them either covering or losing SU. Suns stands at 6-12 SU and 7-10-1 ATS on the road and is 0-3-1 on 2 days of rest to the Knicks playing waaaay better at 6-2 ATS. It is also not a secret that Mike D'Antoni do know how to get around his then prized guard Nash and the Suns' game. With not much talent in his disposal in the past matchups, the Knicks are always able to compete against them. Another plus side is that Danilo Gallinari will be back in the lineup against the Suns. He'll be a better perimeter threat and can spread the floor better for Amare to operate. The new look Suns will be on their 10th game with the new guys (they played the Knicks on their 5th game together) so they won't be much of a task to figure out. With that I'm playing New York Knicks -6.0. Passing up on the total since this is an afternoon game (which most often than not ends as an UNDER game) and so it's hard to guage how the energy would be not to mention both teams can turn their offense ON anytime.
The Wizards have been home do... [More]
Posted Sunday, January 16, 2011 10:17 AM
Posting this via mobile so can't chat much.
LAL OVER 196.5
Spurs UNDER 211.5
Posted Saturday, January 15, 2011 01:11 AM
NBA YTD: 262-190-12
This Week: 23-18
Horrible friday. Played a lot of faves and dogs barked hella loud tonight. Writeup to follow.TOR@WAS OVER 209.5
HOU@ATL UNDER 204.0
Houston Rockets +7.5
Charlotte Bobcats +1.0
Detroit Pistons -5.0
Denver Nuggets -15.0
NJN@POR UNDER 183.5
Posted Friday, January 14, 2011 01:05 AM
New thread for Local Hoops in the Philippines. This thread will be
covering the January 14, 2011 Friday, Philippine Basketball
Projected Line for January 14, 2011:
5:00pm Game: Talk N Text vs Derby Ace +6.0 184.5
7:30pm Game: San Miguel +3.0 vs Ginebra 176.5
SU Prediction: 62-23
Talk N Text 91 - 89 Derby Ace
San Miguel 85 - 86 Ginebra
Posted Friday, January 14, 2011 12:45 AM
NBA YTD: 259-182-12
This Week: 20-10
Thursday: 3-1 (MIA AND UNDER pending which looks done already.)
Shouldn't have winged that MIA bet. LOL. Went on with a break even night.
Iggy came back and now I hate backing the 76ers. I do like the UNDER 187.0 since both teams are a combined 33-41-0 O/U and averages to score around 92ppg. I believe this is the better bet than the side bet. Milwaukee is known to be that defensive team and it's not a secret that they can put up with the better team coping with injuries (they had a really nice shot at the Spurs last time). 76ers will be back being bad with Igoudala's horrendous FG and definitely score less than they are scoring. Him eating up precious minutes from other players is a good thing for the UNDER as well. A caution though is that 76ers are putting up the numbers their last 5 games (that means they are better offensively without Iggy). Bucks isn't offensively challenged having a couple of streaky shooters and if the 76ers allows them, they can race the numbers up. A side bet would easily be the Philadelphia 76ers -4.0. Even though I rip them with Igoudala playing, you can't take the fact that the 76ers have the Bucks' game pretty much (looking at their past match ups) since both teams barely made any significant changes.
I've given up on the Pistons so I'm betting the Toronto Raptors -4.5 even if I haven't checked the stats and all. Raptors are a lot better at home anyway. A good money making trend wou... [More]
Posted Thursday, January 13, 2011 12:31 AM
NBA YTD: 254-181-12
This Week: 15-9
Wednesday: 6-3 (LAC and OVER pending)
Orlando got exposed against New Orleans but really you have to give respect to Monty Williams' game plan totally limiting the Magic's offense. Orlando will definitely have problems against teams who are good at home. Orlando, following the loss to New Orleans is 9-1 the last 10 games, looks like an easy bet again tonight giving a point to the Thunders. In every area, they look like a red flag. 3-7 ATS on the second game of a back to back and 6-11 ATS on the road. They seem to struggle against teams on upper tier teams in Defensive Efficiency. Good thing the Thunders isn't one of those and has allowed their opponent to score past the century mark against them. Anyway, the first one that pops up is the OVER 205.0. It's no secret that the Magic can score and with them playing the Thunders at home (15-5 O/U) you can expect them to make this a quite a high scoring game. Thunders has score past 100 points nine out of the last ten home games and has allowed their opponent 101ppg at home. I see the Thunders running the score up to 100 with the Magic scoring the same way. As for the side, I'm rolling with the Magic since they OWN the Thunders. That's about it. So Orlando Magic -1.0 while it's still fresh.
I'm really not sure how fellow 04 draftee would take this first visit from 3 guys in the same batch. It's either he tries to showup and scores hard on them playing for pride or he lays down... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 12, 2011 12:29 AM
NBA YTD: 248-178-12
This Week: 9-6
Horrible Tuesday. Will make the write up early today here are the picks.
Atlanta Hawks -3.5
Charlotte Bobcats +3.5/ML
Detroit Pistons +1.5
Milwaukee Bucks +3.0
New Orleans +3.0/ML
ORL@NOH UNDER 190.5
Utah Jazz -6.0
MIA@LAC OVER 194.0
Posted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 11:39 PM
New thread for Local Hoops in the Philippines. This thread will be
covering the January 12, 2011 Wednesday, Philippine Basketball
Projected Line for January 12, 2011:
5:00pm Game: Ginebra vs San Miguel pk 177.5
7:30pm Game: Derby Ace +4.5 vs Talk N Text 181.5
SU Prediction: 62-21
Ginebra 88 - 87 San Miguel
Derby Ace 86 - 84 Talk N Text ... [More]
Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 11:13 PM
NBA YTD: 247-174-12
This Week: 8-2
Detroit messed a perfect looking day anyway on with Tuesday games.
First up, the UNDER 194.0 in the IND@PHI game looks like the best play on the board. They are a combined 27-44-0 O/U and has went under the total for most of their matches. Both team easily averages to 90 points and we should see a total of around 180ish in tomorrow's game. Philadelphia is the only threat for it to go OVER if they decide to gun against their opponents as seen in their last 3 games. Then again, I like the Pacers' defense and their size to make it hard for the 76ers' bench to score. Again, the 76ers are better without Iggy allowing more bench production and time for the rest of the bench. Pacers never really held its own outside their home court and the 76ers are pretty competitive at home. I'm taking the Philadelphia 76ers -5.0. Pacers also have a possible look ahead to hosting the Mavericks at home the next day. It will be a pretty important game for both teams since it will determine the outcome in case a tie breaker for a playoff spot. I like Elton Brand to again dominate his way against the Pacers averaging 18 points / 11 boards / 3 assists and 2 blocks against them and some how help in shutting out the Pacers' bigs.
This should be a tough schedule for the Knicks. They'll travel to Salt Lake right after this game and playing the Suns and Lakers in their last two road games should have taken a bit of fatigue from them... [More]
Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 12:25 AM
NBA YTD: 245-173-12
Paul Silas have made the Cats feel good again winning 4 of their last 6 games but will be in for a test in their next few games against good teams (MEM, CHI, BOS and NO). Memphis, on the other hand, had a couple of problems but managed to win games here and there. Their tallest task has been consistency and winning games on the road. At 6-14, they seem to be very beatable on the road losing to bad teams likes of Washington (as a 3.5 road dog), Cleveland (as a 1.5 road fave), and even Sacramento (as a 4.0 road fave). They have only been set as a favorite of 4 point or less 7 times this season and covered only 2 of them. Now they'll be looking to face a Charlotte team who developed playing defense under Larry Brown and is currently running to master Silas' up tempo game. The play here is Charlotte Bobcats +2.0. I'm also looking deep with the stats but with both teams easily combining to a home-road O/U record of 14-24-0 and with both teams easily scoring 95 a side. A total of 192 isn't a safe number with either the over or the under. So no play there.
I'm playing the Detroit Pistons +10.0 because again they love showing up against good teams especially rivals from the East. The undersized forwards for Detroit doesn't really give away too much advantage since the Bulls doesn't have much size with Noah out. I also like the Bulls off an 11-point win against the defending Eastern conference champs that would increase people's... [More]
Posted Sunday, January 09, 2011 01:26 AM
NBA YTD: 239-172-12
This week: 21-22-4
Horrible way to end the Week. Saturday was brutal. Hopefully we get that mojo back and start winning again. Only posting my picks for Sunday. You guys may want to stay away from my plays as I see a chalky Sunday.Toronto Raptors -4.5
Los Angeles Clippers -3.5
Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5
Miami Heat -5.0
Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5
Denver Nuggets -5.5
Los Angeles Lakers -6.5
Posted Saturday, January 08, 2011 10:44 PM
New thread for Local Hoops in the Philippines. This thread will be
covering the January 9, 2011 Sunday, Philippine Basketball
Projected Line for January 9, 2011:
PBA4:00pm Game: Talk N Text vs Derby Ace +4.5 182.5
6:00pm Game: San Miguel +1.5 vs Ginebra 177.5
Posted Saturday, January 08, 2011 01:30 AM
Seattle Seahawks +10.0
Indiana Colts -2.0Baltimore Ravens -3.0Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Posted Saturday, January 08, 2011 01:21 AM
NBA YTD: 237-167-12
This week: 19-17-4
Another laptop crashing. Going to just make the writeup quick.
IND@ATL UNDER 191.0 and it should still go down a point. Home-Road O/U Trend points to the UNDER and two teams are playing good defense their last few games. This has the Spurs@Pacers pace written all over. I see the Hawks hitting 95ish and Pacers could barely put up 90. The total should hit around 180-185. As for the side, I dislike playing the Pacers at this spot since they're playing back to back and the Hawks are capable of scoring in bunches at home.
UNDER 188.0 is the play here. Pretty tricky line here. Cats will be without Wallace and S-Jax is pretty much out for the game (even if he does, having fluids off your knees would hamper your movement). I believe Tyrus Thomas will most likely play and perhaps be another focal point of attack for the Cats. Outside Thomas and Diaw, Washington has advantage with their height and size as displayed when they clamped down on Defense against the Nets. With not much offensive players on an uptempo squad, the scores would definitely be scattered like their game in Minnesota. I doubt they'd get it done again tonight with a limited squad then again it's the Wizards we're talking about who's 0-17 at home and still made a 4.5 road dog. I was expecting them to be at pk or +2 at most but now I think I'd give it a long thinking. Right now the total is the way.
I'm taking the New Jersey Nets -1.0... [More]
Posted Friday, January 07, 2011 02:34 AM
New thread for Local Hoops in the Philippines. This thread will be
covering the January 7, 2011 Friday, Philippine Basketball
Projected Line for January 7, 2011:
PBA5:00pm Game: Ginebra +2.0 vs San Miguel 172.57:30pm Game: Derby Ace +4.5 vs Talk N Text 182.5
SU Prediction: 59-20
Ginebra 84 - 81 San Miguel Derby Ace 94 - 98 Talk N Text
Posted Friday, January 07, 2011 02:23 AM
NBA YTD: 231-163-12
This week: 13-13-4
I never really like betting on two bad teams. Anyway, the first one that stands out is the UNDER 189.0. New Jersey is performing really well in the defensive end and it won't be too surprising to see them end up around the same total in their first meeting (186). Wizards can barely get around 95ish with Arenas (though Lewis is a decent substitute putting up almost the same numbers) and against teams who plays defense, they hardly get past around 85. I see both teams scoring around 85ish and that's around an easy 170 for both teams. 19 points should be enough just in case one team gets excited and score around 30 in a quarter (I see either team scoring 23-25 per quarter). Both teams home-road O/U is a combined 13-21-0. Last season, it's either the point total go 10 points over or way under so with that I believe if ever the total is in some trouble there's the second half to get out of. As for the sides, I like the Washington Wizards -5.5. Washington is pretty much better in most positions than the Nets. The last time they played, Blatche was out and the Nets were able to dominate the paint. Now that they have both Blatche and Lewis, they have the height (plus the crowd) and size to close out the driving lane and not get out rebounded by 15.
The Bulls at 23-11 looks to act up on the road and feel that they have the luxury to rest up players. I'm just speculating but it seems like they are tryin... [More]
Posted Thursday, January 06, 2011 02:04 AM
NBA YTD: 229-163-12
This week: 11-13-4
Struggling this week. You guys may want to think twice tailing me at the moment.
So far, I got the Denver Nuggets seem a lot better to bet on than the Sacramento Kings. Denver sucks on the road but the Kings are way worse. They have this uncanny way to get the lead at some point and still lose the game.
What worries me here is that it has the very same setup as the Chicago@New Jersey game from last night. Bulls were -10.5 at home then went to New Jersey as a 5.5 road favorite. Denver is -10.5 last 1/1/11 and now a 5.5 road favorite as well. Both happened in 2011. We saw what happened in New Jersey. Chicago were out of sync but still managed to make it a game.
Denver against the Clippers were the usual team they are on the road except that they shot only 37% and were out muscled by the Clippers' front court. Sacramento has the makings of a team that can make it hard for Denver (on the road). They have the front court who can score on the Nuggets and speedy guard to keep up with them. The only thing is they lack consistency and maturity. They are also turnover prone and usually sleeps on one quarter which makes it a tough task to even bet money on them.
I'm making an assumption that Kenyon Martin will be out in this game. Regardless if he suits up or not, he won't make much of a difference anyway since they are so used to play without him. Melo still produced his usual output but ... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 05, 2011 01:13 AM
NBA YTD: 226-158-10
This week: 8-8-2
Horrible Tuesday. Again, I think I'm betting on a lot of public plays here and there.
I'm having bad feeling about this line. Earlier this season, Bulls were a 10.5 road favorite against them where they won by 9. Bulls are streaking and it's really hard not to bet. They rested Rose and Boozer in the 4th against the Raptors so they're almost good to go against the Nets. Another huge public play here so those who are weary of this should stay away. I'm taking Chicago Bulls -4.0. Another caution is the Bulls are looking to rest up in the following days since they'll be playing below .500 teams. My mind is telling me to stay away but with an almost identical home-road ATS record plus the Bulls only a 8-7 road team, my gut tells me that it's the right play. As for the total, I believe the Nets keep this UNDER 185 if they look for a chance to cover or win it. They are pretty decent defensively and this should end quite near the spread.
I'm fading the Wizards on the road. 0-16 SU and 5-11 against currently the best ATS team this season. I'll save my time talking and you guys better read scal's big writeup
. What's weird is that the 76ers is no team to be made a 7-point home favorite. Then again, if that happens, the other team definitely sucks. Philly has only been ma... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 04, 2011 11:09 PM
New thread for Local Hoops in the Philippines. This thread will be
covering the January 5, 2011 Wednesday, Philippine Basketball
Projected Line for January 5, 2011:
5:00pm Game: Derby Ace +5.0 vs Talk N Text 185.5
7:30pm Game: San Miguel vs Ginebra +1.5 175.5
Official League Count:
(arranged in alphabetical order)
SU Prediction: 58-19
Derby Ace 86 - 78 Talk N Text
San Miguel 79 - 82 Ginebra
Posted Tuesday, January 04, 2011 12:17 AM
NBA YTD: 224-154-9
This week: 6-4-1
Here's a no brainer. San Antonio Spurs -5.0. And probably the UNDER 208.5 because the Spurs are so used in containing Amare's offensive production. As long as the man does not score 30+ the total goes under. That's probably the insight you need here.
Bucks has kept it close against the Heat in their first game. They will again keep the game from going fast paced and so I feel that they may actually have a chance here. Then again, the Bobcats were in a pretty much same situation with a key player out and still managed to keep the Heat from destroying them in the 3rd quarter. I'm also worried that the Heat are more complacent at home and is not really into blowing out teams (6-12 ATS at home). I'm taking my chance on the Miami Heat -10.5. Notice that with Brandon Jennings out of the lineup (for 6 games now), the Bucks has dropped 3 games at an average defeat of 18 points (13 against Chicago, 15 against Atlanta and 26 to Portland). The most the Bucks were able to score was 98 against the Lakers and 99 against the Mavs. Heat defensive efficiency is 3rd in the league and only allowing 93.1ppg at home. I believe we'll see more like a MIA@CHA scoring where the Heat wins less than 14 or 15 and have the total at around 178ish. Bucks is number 6 in defensive efficiency allowing only 92.5ppg and a stingy 86.0ppg their last 5. The UNDER 183.5 is not so bad if you look at those numbers.[More]
Posted Monday, January 03, 2011 12:58 AM
NBA YTD: 223-152-8
This one is an easy one. Miami Heat -9.0. Thea heat is showing bad signs of slowing down and is a bit complacent nowadays knowing that they can turn around ball games whenever they want. You never want to bet on teams like that (and yes Lakers are that very same team). Good thing they are playing a supposedly uptempo team. Charlotte Bobcats has the makings of an uptempo team but seem to not be able to sustain it after the first 2 quarters. With the way they are playing, it's almost impossible for them not to get caught up with the Heat tempo which is very dangerous. The Cats' D is still there but them running with the Heat is not gonna be healthy. Miami and Charlotte combines for 11-22-0 home-road O/U. I see the game going to hit 180+ easy. Miami is bound to get to 90-100 points in this game and Charlotte given their current pace plus the Heats' defense I say they score 80-90 points. With the steady drop from the opening line at 192.0 total it seems like a lot of people is shooting the UNDER. I personally like the OVER here but will probably wait for a good line. Right now, get the Heat before they go up by a point.
It was refreshing to see the Warriors up and running again against the Heat but somehow they ended up laying an egg in the second half and stop running like they should have. The combined home-road O/U for both is 15-20-1 which isn't saying a lot. Orlando right now is scoring 107 ppg in their last 5 games/wins. ... [More]
Posted Sunday, January 02, 2011 06:59 PM
St. Louis Rams -4.0
Posted Sunday, January 02, 2011 01:58 AM
NBA YTD: 218-150-8
Last Week: 32-15-1
Wasn't able to post my SAS and UNDER pick but still managed 4-3. Ended
the Week with a winning rate of 68%. Hope the new year treats us better.
NBA Overall is at 59% and whenever you are above 55% you know you're
winning. On to the games..
Indiana is struggling that is mainly due to their offensive struggle.
Knicks on the other hand dropped 5 of their last 7 games after their
record winning streak. I believe it's their inability to sustain the
lead or keep their run going. With that, seeing them a combined 13-18-0
O/U and averaging a combined 204.0 ppg with their averages not to
mention the game will be played 1PM EST, I'm almost certain that the UNDER 209.0 is the best play here. I'm also taking Indiana Pacers +6.5
purely on gut feel. I know Pacers are bad road dogs not to mention you
give them 6.5. That's like expecting them to get beat and getting blown
out won't be far from happening. Knicks are pretty competitive at home
but the play takes into consideration the way they let down on afternoon
games and the Pacers to backdoor isn't far from the equation either.
For the Clippers to actually win, they have to get the scoreboard running as fast as possible. Sustain the momentum and hold out with their defense. They've done this successfully in 5 games that they've won out of their last 10 games. Atlanta will be a tough nut to crack and they have the defense to keep the Clip... [More]
Posted Saturday, January 01, 2011 09:07 PM
The run ended at 16-3 let's start another one shall we?New Orleans Saints -7.0
TB@NO UNDER 47.0
Cleveland Browns +5.5
PIT@CLE OVER 37.5
Houston Texans -3.0
Minnesota Vikings +3.5
San Diego Chargers -3.5
New York Giants -3.5
Chicago Bears +9.5
Posted Saturday, January 01, 2011 12:38 AM
NBA YTD: 215-147-8This Week: 28-12-
Happy New Year everyone! Will be spending the last day of the week with the family so just the picks! I'll see if I can come around to do one and discuss games with you guys. Cheers to another profitable year and hope that we keep on rolling!GSW+12.0
GSW@MIA UNDER 204.0