CrazyMilkMan's Blog

Posted Monday, December 29, 2008 10:52 PM

NBA Tuesday

Bad luck has caught up after going hot last week, I started 0-2 this week. Got two plays ready for you guys. First up is the 7pm game which is the Charlotte Bobcats -5. Larry Brown will be pitted against a run-and-gun team. Bobcats has been spelling Defense and it should notch them a win after that disappointing struggle in OT against the Nets.

Next one up is  Boston Celtics
-3.5. I'd careless if this looks like a trap or not. The Celts won't let one up on the road again. They'll roll over Roy and his boys late at 10pm.


BOL.


Posted Sunday, December 28, 2008 11:40 PM

NBA Monday

Phoenix has been terrible their past games and is barely covering the odds. They comeback to Oklahoma City where the Thunders almost pulled a fast one on them. Not really a revenge match, nothing really up for the Suns. The Thunders probably need as much win as they could get out of that 3-win hole. I like the Suns only because of how Shaq has been playing. With a young team pitted against an old team (yes I consider Suns old with Nash, Hill and Shaq out there) it'll surely be a different ball game from that 98-99 close call in their first meet. 

Pick: Phoenix Suns -9.

BOL.



Posted Sunday, December 28, 2008 10:05 AM

NFL Week 17

Det+11
Dal+1
NO+2.5
IND+2.5
PIT-11
NYJ-2.5
BUF+6.5
ARI-7
DEN+8.5






I feel pretty good I'd go on a plus side tonight.


Posted Friday, December 26, 2008 10:39 PM

NBA Saturday

On a 5-1 run so far, NBA recorded improved to a not to shabby 43-29. Thunders are on a 3 game slide. They've lost 9 of their last 10 but has covered 6 of its last 10. They are a very promising team and what like most young teams would find trouble in, is they can't close out games. They show tremendous athleticism and resilience in their past few games as 5 of that 10 games was decided by less than 7 points. Wizards is a team in the dark. They'd be desperate. Against a team who's maturing in every single I'd gladly take that much points. (Side: OKC is 6-2 ATS on B2B against the Wiz' 2-12 on games after a day of rest). Oklahoma City Thunders +7

BOL.


Posted Wednesday, December 24, 2008 09:21 PM

NBA Thursday

Everyone seem to be so fond of that 2008 NBA Finals rematch and I bet this one team has been flying under the radar for quite sometime now. I'm talking about Orlando Magic as they play host to the Hornets. Orlando is on a quiet run of their own as bigger names in the NBA are stealing the show which is quite nice. They're on a 5-game winning streak, winning 9 of their last 10 and covering the same number as well. The Magic-men are monster at home and they have a number of streaky shooters. I'm pretty confident that Jameer Nelson can cover CP3 quite well. I like the Magic's height and athleticism to match up well with the Hornets. This will be JN4 and D12's show even if Peja geared up tonight (I'm expecting him to play and even had him take a spot in my Fantasy League). Orlando Magic -4.5

BOL.


Posted Monday, December 22, 2008 11:56 PM

NBA Tuesday

You gotta love how the Lakers are doing. Not covering the spread for so long now and the line should start adjusting. Tuesday night should be a good preview of what should've have been the 2008 Western Conference Finals. Lakers should match the Hornets pretty good. Also, liking the over but I think my luck with totals run out already so going back with the side bet. D-Fish on CP3. Posey on KB24. West on Gasol. Peja on Radman. Bynum on Chandler. Can't get any better than a match-up like that. Jackson > Scott. Should be one hell of a game in New Orleans. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5.

BOL.




Posted Sunday, December 21, 2008 11:00 PM

NBA Monday

Going on a 2-day winning streak. Hope I don't jinx it.

As much as I'd want to not play any NBA and just cash in on the Bears over in NFL. How could you let a Golden State game go by and not just bet on the OVER. This guys seem to not care with what's going on and could careless if they win or lose. They're Fantasy-stat machines. Jameer and Rashard are streaking and they are in the zone right now. D12 should be healthy now. Jamal Crawford is still unconscious and expect the scoreboard to light up. S-Jax should be good by tomorrow. All the more reason to take the over. Score-fest tomorrow night. Warriors/Magic OVER 218.5.

BOL.



Posted Sunday, December 21, 2008 08:30 PM

Monday Night is Bears Night

Chicago Bears -4
OVER 40






Posted Sunday, December 21, 2008 08:47 AM

CrazyMilkMan @ Week 16

Cleveland Browns -3
Miami/KC UNDER 38
Arizona Cardinals +9
San Fran 49ers -4.5
Buffalo/Denver OVER 45
Houston Texans -7
Philly/Washington OVER 37
Minnesota Vikings -3


BOL.



Posted Sunday, December 21, 2008 08:28 AM

NBA Sunday

Do you honestly expect Oklahoma to keep up with a Covering Machine like Cleveland? The Thunders seem to fall for teams that can push the ball and score with ease in transition. The Cavs is one of those team and they can stretch the floor with their streaky shooters. Big Z seem to be perfectly back in shape now. If you were robbed off that OVER in the Cle/Den game, time to get it back here. Cleveland blows this team up, good thing this young group doesn't give up even if down by 300 at any point in time. Cavs/Thunders OVER 191.

BOL.


Posted Saturday, December 20, 2008 12:07 AM

NBA Saturday

The Clips are coming from back to back games. Got in OT the game against Chicago then into 2OTs against the Pacers. This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights. They'll be playing against M.Redd and the Bucks. Clippers' starters played almost close to 50 minutes and this is why I like this line. Bucks and Clips will be jacking up shots early tomorrow. If the Clips showed tired legs, they'll gonna get eaten by the Bucks' hot shooting. I see a Golden State-esque type of game here with baskets coming left and right. Clips/Bucks OVER 192.

BOL.



Posted Wednesday, December 17, 2008 09:16 AM

Milwaukee VS. Philadelphia Pre-Game Analysis

Milwaukee and Philadelphia will be squaring off tonight at 7pm EST. Milwaukee is trying to save face and get to .500 (though still got a long way) starting with its most recent 2-game winning stint. Winning at an average of 16.5 points in those two games. Philadelphia 76ers has its first success with the new coach, Tony DiLeo. They just broke a 3 game slide with a 15-point win against the struggling Wizards.

Milwaukee as I've called them in the past is a freakin' ATS machine going for 17-8-1 ATS record. Horrible as they are on the road (5-11 SU card), they get most of its success perhaps as a live road dog which leads to a 10-5-1 ATS road card. They are a 4.5-point road dog tonight and pretty much this is why Bucks can be considered as a "live-road-dog" as they cover 63% of the time. They have played teams with above .500 records pretty well (5-3-1 ATS). They are 8-2 ATS on 1 day rest and has played Eastern teams quite well.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, is pretty decent at home. Well, they're pretty decent enough to cover the spread. They are 6-7 at home and their ATS home card standing pretty close at 5-8. Though I can say that they are very dominant at home as they have only manage to beat sub-par teams at home (NY, Sac, OKC, LAC, GSW, and Was) by pretty much an average of 18.67 or 19 points. 76ers is at an alarming 0-4 on 3 days of rest or more.

The Bucks looks to be a decent OVER team holding a 15-11 o/u record with a good 10-6 o/u road record. 76... [More]

Posted Tuesday, December 16, 2008 03:20 AM

New Orleans VS Memphis Pre-Game Analysis

Memphis is on an amazing 4 game winning streak. Hopefully, this explains why the line is set at 5.5 and most likely hit 6 or 6.5 by game time. New Orleans is also on its 3rd and last game on the road before playing host to San Antonio the next day.

Memphis is surprisingly has an average ATS record at home with 7-5. 8-7 ATS after a day of rest. New Orleans is decent with a 5-5 road ATS card and just as good as Memphis with the spread at 4-3 on games after 1 day of rest.

Some trends to consider:
ATS Trends New Orleans Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Hornets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Memphis Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.


I don't really see much into going deeper analyzing the match-ups. The last time these two teams slugged it out. It goes like this:

Memphis at New Orleans [More]

Posted Monday, December 15, 2008 01:30 AM

First time I like the dogs in MNF

I think I'm still drunk when I say this but I think Cleveland can put up two touchdowns against Philly defense Monday night. I don't see them winning the contest and I know all about the trend on faves on MNF and TNF but this time I honestly gotta take a two-touch down worth dog and bark hard with them.

The Pick:

Cleveland +14
OVER 39.5







Posted Sunday, December 14, 2008 05:35 AM

NBA Sunday

Don't look now. I'm gunning for a very very profitable week starting with this Sunday play! Oklahoma City Thunders/San Antonio Spurs UNDER 198. San Antonio at home is almost close to an UNDER Machine going 3-9 o/u so far. Taking into account that the young Thunders is coming off against a loss in Dallas. San Antonio will be a tough spot for them. It's like the Old meets the New. With almost no good matchup for Mr.Fundamentals, look for the Spurs to slow it down and dictate the tempo early on.

Good Luck!






Posted Friday, December 12, 2008 11:21 PM

One Play a Day [Sat]

One play and I'm riding them till they lose. You guys might want to fade me as I'm on a really really bad week. I'm suppose to lay-off betting to recharge but I just can't seem to pass up on this one. I don't know why they are only laying 5 points against the Cavs. Fishy? I'd careless. The King will get it done in Atlanta tomorrow.

The Play: King James -5

 

NBA: 35-26







Posted Friday, December 12, 2008 01:25 AM

One Play a Day [Fri]

Not good Thursday. Good thing my NFL bailed me out. The week has been tough so far. Let's aim to get on 60% winning percentage before Christmas day. I'll be on a whole new streak starting with this one.

The Play: New Orleans Hornets/Boston Celtics OVER 188.5

Both teams barely broke a sweat in their last game. Boston off a back-to-back isn't a real biggie and New Orleans traveling to Boston shouldn't take much from them as they have a day of rest. I just feel that the line is set rather low for the two teams who has easily been erupting to 100 points per game. This is perhaps due to both team having players like Ray Allen and Peja Stojakovic heating up. I don't think this game will be a blow out. It's either one team besting the other out. As much as I'd like to take the road dog plus that hefty 7 points, I feel comfortable on the Over.

NBA: 35-25

Comments?




Posted Thursday, December 11, 2008 01:26 AM

One Thunderous Thursday Night Football Play for the Degenerates

Chicago Bears -3
OVER 44.5


New Orleans on the road is just one hell of a different team as they are in their own dome. Both teams facing elimination needs this win more than anything else. D.Brees is a different person playing away from his home soil and could only create close to a touch down a game on the road. He seem to also play sloppy handing almost thrice as much interceptions than one could see him at home. The plus side for them is their Rushing. Bush and Thomas looks pretty solid to me. The Bears on the other hand look revitalized with Matt Forte out there and Kyle Orton looks like he's getting healthier. When New Orleans are made as a 3 points or less underdog on the road they are an alarming 0-5 ATS. Seriously banking on how bad New Orleans are on the road.


Comments?




Posted Thursday, December 11, 2008 12:39 AM

One Play a Day [Thursday]

NBA: 34-23

Tough beat. New day, Thursday, let's get on a run and earn some more money! One winning streak coming right up! BTW, Go Bears and Over!

The Play: Dallas Mavericks -10.5
I can't remember the last time Charlotte won over the Mavs. I think this continues Thursday night. The Mavs finally looks alive after a slow start this season. I'm not sure if Gerald Wallace will be playing nor do I know if the newly acquired players are going to suit up but regardless, they won't have any quick impact so I have scheduled to fade Charlotte in their next three games. They should also have a really low morale after that beating they received from the Hornets. This looks like a tight spot for them to try and pull one in Dirk's home court.


Comments?




Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2008 12:59 AM

One Play a Day [Wednesday]

NBA: 33-21

Cleveland at home is easy money and that's all there is to it. I got three plays and still can't narrow it down. I believe they're as good as a play but we can't just have more than one real good one do we? Anyway, here we go:

The Possible Play #1: Indiana Pacers +4
I know the Pacers is so bad on the road with that 2-8 record but against the Toronto team now? You gotta be kidding me making them the dog here. Indiana will most likely get this as the Raptors is nowhere close into playing real basketball at the moment. Again, I'd always take a cohesive team over a team full of talent but is confused on how they'll be playing. Indiana has been playing teams pretty close down to the wire and they've shown resilience even if they're down double digit. Other than Daniels and Granger, Rasho Nesterovic is the man to watch here tonight. Indiana is a 5-5 ATS team on the road playing the 2-7 ATS record of the home team. Expect one or two sloppy quarter for the Raptors. I'm going to fade the Raptors until they show a sign of life.


The Possible Play #2: New York Knicks/New Jersey Nets UNDER 217
This line is waaaaay too high even if both teams showed small interest in playing any defense. The Knicks off a back to back game and now that they don't have a Jamal Crawford type of player, the Knicks wouldn't be having too much OVER games in their belt. Surprisingly, the Nets (home record) and the Knicks (away record) hold a combined 6-12-0 over/under rec... [More]

Posted Tuesday, December 09, 2008 01:40 AM

One Play a Day [Tuesday]

NBA: 32-21

And I thought we're in for a moose in that Orlando game. I definitely love Tuesday as the cards are looking extremely promising. I got a coupe of plays, 4 actually but somehow I managed to narrow it down to just two and still find it hard to eliminate one. Again, I'd have to ask you guys on what you think/feel about the plays. So here we go with two of the league's ATS machine.

The Possible Play #1: Cleveland Cavaliers -11
ATS Machine # 1, King James and the Cavs. He's no King at home, he's a demon. Toronto should pretty much be used to their coach's new system but they still won't do well against a very very very confident Cleveland team at home. LBJ23 and his gang is 16-4 ATS and holds a 9-2 ATS card at home. Past results won't have good implications that the Cavs will cover this game. But with how this Cleveland team played so far and taking into consideration that the Raptors are still in "transition" of getting used to a new basketball playing system. I'd have to say this will go pretty well for the Cavs. On a side note, I am pretty confident with the OVER in this one, then again I have this invisible bond with this Cleveland team that when I bet on one total they just find some magical way to go the other side.


The Possible Play #2: Milwaukee Bucks +7
ATS Machine # 2, with a fiery looking 15-6-1 ATS record. 9-3-1 ATS Road Record playing against Phoenix' 3-7 ATS Home Record, this should say a lot. With a streaky shooter in Mich... [More]

Posted Monday, December 08, 2008 03:10 AM

One Play a Day [Mon]

Horrible day for the favorites both in the NBA and NFL last night. Let's take our cash back from the Man. I can't tell which one is a better play between Orlando -4 and Houston -7. I seriously can see both teams playing well on the road tonight. Instead, I think I'll have to parlay or tease them to get good number but then again, gotta have that discipline before we totally hand everything back to the Man. Also got Carolina-3 over in football.

The Play: Orlando Magics -4

I'm still not convinced with the Clippers. They're starting to come around but I don't think they can be considered a serious unit now. I like this situation with the Clippers coming off a long road trip taking only 1 win out of the 4 games (though covering 3 of its last 4). Magics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific with a 6-2 record on the road playing the 2-9 (home record) Clippers. I have no real assessment as to how the matchup would end up as they the Clippers has went major changes. I'm banking on the fact that they have yet to come together to play and they are playing one solid team - the Orlando Magics.

NBA: 31-21

Comments?






Posted Sunday, December 07, 2008 03:27 AM

Week 14: Sunday Night Football

NFL: 4-2-1

NYJ -3.5   
NE -6.5    
TEN -14
PIT -3   
GB -6   
NYG -6.5   



I know you guys like these cards too.

Comments?





Posted Sunday, December 07, 2008 02:58 AM

One Play a Day [Sunday]

NBA: 31-19 (62%)

Got out of yesterday night with a 2-1 card which is better than nothing. Got a hefty sum out of my 3 huge plays over in boxing (Thank You Pacman!). I'm going over to Sunday Night Football after this one. So far, I'm feeling really good at the start of this week. Let's go with this one:


The Play: Portland Trailblazers -2
I could have easily chosen the Lakers and the rest of the faves for Sunday night but I just think this one has the best potential. Anyway, Portland is playing its 5th game (the last of its eastern road trip) in 8 nights and so far they've managed pretty well winning 3 of its last 4 games on the road. On the other hand, the Raptors is a mess with their new coach, Jay Triano. They are 0-3 in their 3 game road swing coming from the west and is going to host the blazing Blazers (pun not intended).

As rod_steel pointed out, Eastern conference teams that have played at least 3 or more successive road games are now 2-8 ATS in their first home game back from the road trip. The last two victims were New Jersey (by the Wizards) and Chicago (courtesy of the Sixers). Toronto just fits the bill and I believe they won't get any better with the new head coach as they're seriously lost in that Utah game. 2 days of preparation isn't enough to counter a cohesive team such as what Portland have now. Toronto's twin tower isn't really much of a threat with Aldridge and Oden out there. I think this game will be pretty close all through... [More]

Posted Saturday, December 06, 2008 12:50 AM

One Play a Day [Sat]

I admit it. I suck in playing totals. I'll stick to where I'm more comfortable at and that's playing the side. Good thing Milwaukee Bucks bailed me out of a possible losing day. I got three plays that pretty much looks like winning cards but I just can't pick out the best of them. Do drop me a line which one you think is the best one. Arranged in no particular order:


The Possible Plays:

Denver Nuggets -5

Before you start creating another thread asking whether this line is a trap line or not, let me tell you it's not. Sacramento has played the Nuggets pretty well in their past meetings. In their last 10 games, there has been only 3 games that one side won by double digit, 2 of them are won by the Kings. The Kings are getting healthy and they are slowly getting their key players back in the lineup. Denver on the other hand is far different from the Nuggets that fell to Kobe Bryant in the playoffs. Billups alone has made this team a whole lot better. Other than a highly possible high scoring game, I see the Nuggets out rebounding the Kings and being able to keep up with them in transition. Key match up here is how the Nugget's front court control the board over the likes of Hawes and Miller down there.

Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5

The King is still on a rampage. I don't know if I should even have a write up for this one. If Larry Brown can shackle LBJ then Charlotte ML has pretty a lot of value. Gerald Wallace is pretty much up to the cha... [More]

Posted Friday, December 05, 2008 03:49 AM

One Play a Day [Fri]

I know I should be all over the Lakers-11 and Boston -7.5 but I just can't pass up on this gem. Anyway, it was a good thing I passed up on Thursday night games because it seemed it went horrible for most. I'm no totals person so you guys might to reconsider very well before playing the same bet with me.


The Play: Indiana Pacers/Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 208


Cleveland at home is an automatic 100+ points per game at home. They've went to score more than 105 points in their last 6 games at home. The King just loves thrasing their visitors like they're not welcome in his place. I can really see 3-pointers raining left and right in tomorrow's contest. Indiana on the other hand is just as competetive as they could get. They can easily erupt to the 90ish level and could go beyond depending on how the game will turn out. They've played them play-off caliber teams quite competitively on the road and I just can't not think of them to give up till the very end in LBJ's house. This should go to something like 112-97 at worst or a 120-103 type of game.

NBA: 28-17



Comments?




Posted Thursday, December 04, 2008 08:46 PM

December 6 Dream Match: Fearless Bet !

I've been following Manny for quite some time now and he's been terrific source of income. Going big on a couple of bets:


 Manny Pacquiao +150

Pacquiao to win by KO, TKO or Dq +400

Total Rounds - Oscar de la Hoya vs Manny Pacquiao: UNDER 9.5 +150







Posted Wednesday, December 03, 2008 10:14 PM

One Thursday Night Football Play

NFL: 3-2-1

The Play: OAK/SD UNDER 43

This will beone long Thursday Night Football.







Posted Wednesday, December 03, 2008 12:25 AM

One Play a Day [Wed]

Horrible! Going back to my natural style and just playing one good card everyday. I got a little carried away the past few days but it should be a wake up call for me. We're still up by a couple and hopefully no more looking back when we go on a 4-0 run to end the week.


The Play: Los Angeles Lakers -7


Last night was quite a sham. Not only I am  hopping on the train again but I just can't get any better play than the Black Mamba and his crew. Both teams playing back-to-back and the Lakers is the toughest in this instances. They are 3-0 on b2b against the 76ers 2-3 ATS. With the 76ers off an OT win over the Bulls, they should somehow display the sort of performance from a tired team like New Jersey (Tuesday night against the Wizards). Phil Jackson won't take anything other than a blow-out win in this game after presiding over that horrible defeat in Indiana. I see the LA Train is about to start the ride! Definitely be the first one to hop on!

NBA: 27-17


Comments?







Posted Tuesday, December 02, 2008 03:10 AM

Rare FOUR NBA Plays [Tuesday]

NBA: 26-14
Last night was one hella crazy night. We first went 2-2 before coming back with a 5-1 play on that Heat/Warriors game alone. It was dope I tell you! Anyway, I think I still have a hang over from that Miami/Golden State play and so I'm pushing my luck with this lot:


The Play:
Los Angeles Lakers -7.5
Why not? They're effin' 14-1 and 4-1 ATS on the road. I'd suggest you get yourself first dibs on this one as it will go to 8 or 8.5 anytime soon.


New Jersey Nets -5.5
Yes! I blame LeBron James for traumatizing the very promising Washington Wizards in that last play-offs. Look what happened to them, they are playing one of the best ATS teams in the league and the line looks like its not going to help. The Wizards is a 0-6 ATS team on the road against the Nets who's looking to improve that 10-6 ATS record. Anyway, don't get so messed up with the numbers. It'll be all Devin Harris putting up All-Star performance. I'd continue to fade the wizards like how we all fade the Heat and Knicks last season.


Portland TrailBlazers -6.5
A young team riding on a four game winning streak (also have won 7 of its last 10) means that you have a very confident group right there. They've also covered 7 of their last 10. New York on the other hand has been struggling internally and I must say that D'Antoni has been doing terrific job with whatever crap thrown at him. Portland should be able to hold off the fast-paced Knicks with their defense ... [More]

Posted Monday, December 01, 2008 09:17 AM

I see Unders going in NBA Monday!

I feel like takin some breather but I think I'm liking these plays on Monday night.

Recent Trends | In Depth

  • Under is 6-2 in MIN last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.
  • Under is 6-2 in CHAR last 8 vs. Western Conference.
  • Over is 11-4-1 in CHAR last 16 Mon. games.



Recent Trends | In Depth

  • Under is 17-5 in ORL last 22 road games.
  • Over is 9-3 in ORL last 12 Mon. games.
  • Under is 20-7 in BOS last 27 Mon. games.
  • ORL are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
  • Home team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.






Posted Monday, December 01, 2008 08:55 AM

One MNF Play

NFL: 2-2-1


The Play: Jax/Hou UNDER 48

Picking sides are rather difficult so I'm trying out the totals. I thought 48 is too big between this two teams (yeah, I know that OVER trend looks hot). This game could go to anyone and I'm quite confident that it's an easy blow out. I do like the Home team in this game but I'd hate to just put my money against the dogs in MNF.


Comments?