Posted Monday, February 28, 2011 01:33 AM
Leans for now:
Phoenix Suns -1.5 - Aside from the fishy looking line and the Suns playing back to back, I don't see any reason why not bet on the Suns. They've won 7 of their last 10 and covered 6 of them. Deron Williams isn't there yet. His stat did look a lot like Devin Harris and will probably stay like that until they can get a decent player at 2 and/or 3. They will probably remain like that and perhaps get close to getting his first win against the Raptors when they play them twice at home.
Denver Nuggets -6.0 - Actually a play already. You all know how tough road games is and to play the second of a back to back in Denver means bad thing. Not to mention the Nuggets' morale are pretty high at the moment with wins without Melo and guys like Galo making decent impact right at the bat. Other than playing the second game of a back to back in Denver, they've been on the road for 7 days now and playing 5 games! Nuggies should easily run away with the OVER and the cover.
Boston Celtics -4.0 - Celts should've moved on with the Perkins trade. Line is just about right but it looks really easy. Deron barely made any difference in the 110-86 win by the Celtics and should be closer than their first game. Jazz still looking for who's who and will probably take two or three more game until they can establish a system on who to go to in offense. Jazz' D is still there but I'm still deciding whether to throw in the Under. Boston got pretty thin with their bench with ... [More]
Posted Saturday, February 26, 2011 11:54 PM
NBA YTD: 356-264-14
Phoenix@Indiana UNDER 213.5
Los Angeles Lakers +1.0
Golden State Warriors -2.5
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Dallas Mavericks -8.0
New Orleans Hornets -6.0
Miami Heat -8.5
Posted Saturday, February 26, 2011 12:52 AM
NBA YTD: 354-261-14
Dallas Mavericks -9.0 - This team did a terrific job not doing anything at the trade deadline. Wizards played hard last night and has kept it close for 3 quarters until they ran out of gas in the 4th. They're playing the 4th game in 5 nights after the break and most starters logged 35+ minutes in those nights. They should also run out gas. Dallas' next day game is in Toronto and shouldn't really be looking ahead.
Sacramento Kings +10.0 - Too many points laid against a team who still looking for itself with Rudy out. The win over Minnesota isn't as impressive and given the line, the Wolves could've covered with 10 points. Sacto has won over Grizzlies twice already. Both with Tyreke though (averaging 25.5ppg against the Grizz) then again, Grizzlies are will be without Rudy Gay (who averages 24ppg this season against the Kings) which pretty much level things up. What's scary is that Zach dominates the paint and has average of 28ppg and 17 rpg against the Kings. Kings are also playing the last game of a crazy long road trip.
New Jersey Nets +8.5 - Deron Williams should start getting used to losing games already. Don't get me wrong, that one game is pretty big for a new cast for the Nets compared to the Rockets' who'll pretty much move either Patterson or Budinger to the starting 5. They won't be getting much from the bench now after sending out Brooks who's 11.6ppg off th... [More]
Posted Friday, February 25, 2011 12:23 AM
2-1 so far with Boston pending. Will update the record later. Leans for now:
Phoenix Suns -3.5 - Fishy line but the Suns could be money. Good let down spot for the Raptors after a huge win. Sun's first road game before a lengthy one and should be important. No real look ahead spot for them either. Not really loving the OVER, actually cautious about it because Nash can't run the offense 48 minutes and Brooks isn't as adjusted yet.
Indiana Pacers -6.0 - Fading the Jazz at the moment. Devin Harris is good but it takes time to learn the Jazz playbook not to mention they'll be playing on the road. They were a so-so 14-14 with Deron and without him it should be worse.
Charlotte Bobcats -4.5 - Perfect let down spot for Sacramento. Couple in the 3 games in 4 nights and soon to be a 4-5 set up for the Kings also nearing the end of the road trip angle. Cats in a close one here. Cats D should limit the Kings again. Three things I believe is pretty close to a sure thing tomorrow with all the trades for the Cats. S-Jax will most likely play, Kwame Brown will play longer minutes (damn, Jordan is really vouching for this guy), and Diaw will be more involved in the Cats' offense with Wallace out (Henderson will most likely start).
Miami Heat -14.5 - Fading the Wizards on the road.
Oklahoma City Thunders +7.0 - The Perkins trade should translate to more minutes for Ibaka (possibly a starting role even) which means the offense will be (a couple more) heavily... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 23, 2011 11:20 PM
NBA YTD: 351-257-14
Good thing that 2nd Half Hawks mailed it in. Could've hit the full game if they played 48 minutes. Anyway, two plays for Thursday:Miami@Chicago OVER 192.5
Boston Celtics -3.0
Posted Wednesday, February 23, 2011 01:35 AM
NBA YTD: 348-255-14
Again, leans for now. Keep the thoughts coming.
Philadelphia 76ers -9.0 - No way 76ers is this much of a home fave right? That's exactly what I'm thinking. It kinda make sense since the Wizards loses at an average of 13ppg on the road.
Chicago Bulls -8.0 - Bulls limit the Raptors to around 90 and come away with a double digit win. Noah is expected to return and all the more reason to back the Bulls. So far this season Bulls has won an average of 18ppg over the Raptors (in two games). Red flag here is that the square the next day against the Heat.
Indiana Pacers -7.5 - Pacers is hot and Detroit sucks last night. They always seem to find a way to lose a winnable game themselves.
San Antonio Spurs -7.5 - Old team at home with the decent rest, not to mention they have the best record right now. It kinda makes you wonder why OK City is this much of a road dog. Then again, the last 2 head-to-head resulted to an average of 20 points win for the Spurs. Durant and Westbrook could barely get to their average against this team. Spurs' D should be sharper with the rest. OKC should have a slight advantage having the slight rust from the break chipped off with the win over the Clipjoint.
MEM@MIN UNDER 205.0 - I may actually make this a play. Head-to-head averages 192ppg and with a Beasley hampered with injury and Rudy Gay out, it should most likely end up around that average. Memphis looked lost last night agai... [More]
Posted Monday, February 21, 2011 06:58 PM
NBA YTD: 348-255-14
Will be back early in the morning for the write up. Leans for now:TOR@CHA OVER 195.5
- The rest greatly benefits both teams. Raptors and Cats will most likely run the total on fresh legs. No lean for the side yet, Raptors can easily cover 7 when they're fresh. Thing is that Cats have no business laying 7 points.Detroit Pistons +2.0
- Pistons is 4-0 on 3+ days of rest that just translates to this team performing better when rested. Pistons have the size to keep up with the Rockets and can score with them as well.BOS@GSW OVER 199.0
- Again the rest factor is good for this old Boston team, Warriors are on a roll before the break winning 7 of the last 10 games. Boston averages 95 on the road but playing Warriors who allows almost 105 points should mean that they'd break through 100 at the very least. Warriors game averages 190 at the very least the last 10 games, 203 the last 5. That 10 points should easily come by with both teams not having any to play up next.
Posted Sunday, February 20, 2011 08:20 AM
I could go on and on with predictions, analysis, etc.. but let's face it. Predicting the outcome is as random as flipping a coin so I used a couple of system and here's the closest you could get to predicting this game:
Todd Redden's Decision Maker Coin Toss System:
To take away human error in flipping coins I went to a website and used a Todd Redden's Decision Maker Coin. Flipped it 7 times with the "Do It" side for the East and the "The Hell with It" side fort the west. Came out: 4 - East, 3 - West.
The Verdict: East
Magic 8-Ball System:
To again remove human error I went to an online magic 8-ball and run a question 3 times:
"Will the East win tomorrow?"
Without a doubt
Count on it
"Will the West win tomorrow?"
Without a doubt
Not in a million years
The Verdict: East - Again by a hair. 3 yes to 2.
The Jedi System:
Pretty similar to the magic 8-ball but 100x better!!! Because it's a talking Yoda.
"Will the East win tomorrow?"
Simple Question you ask, No, I answer.
Asking the future, there's is a disturbance with the force.
The answer you seek is... Yes.
"Will the West win tomorrow?"
Yes, I feel this will be.
The Force is strong on this one... Yes
Clear your mind of the question, only then the answer you will see.
The Verdict: West - Can't argue with those capping skill.
Paulee the... [More]
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 06:37 PM
Let's face it. You (We) guys are in this forum looking for any possible action for tonight's game because we're hella degenerates. Here's what I think about the game:
Rookies +6.0 vs Sophomores 253.5
Eric Bledsoe, L.A. Clippers, G
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento, C
Derrick Favors, New Jersey, F
Landry Fields, New York, G
Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers, F
Wesley Johnson, Minnesota, G
Greg Monroe, Detroit, C
Gary Neal, San Antonio, G
John Wall, Washington, G
Milkman Thinks: Last year I wrote off them Rookies thinking they will have to match up against that years' Sophomore front court which oozes in size and athleticism but ended up yielding to them street ballers. This year you have a very talented Rooks team that has a guard who has insane speed and can pass the ball at the same time having two guys who can finish and later on watch the clip on youtube. I notice a lot of people are talking about Blake Gri... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 16, 2011 11:53 PM
Last day before the break and just had a painful 0-5 Wednesday (given the Blazers doesn't cover). Not in a really good betting form the last two weeks so feel free to fade away. Looking forward to this game:
Chicago Bulls -1.5
Chicago got beat bad by one quarter and that pretty much cost them the W in their last head-to-head. Rose were crazy good as usual and they were without Boozer to boot. Spurs were on their 8th win streak that time and the Bulls are struggling in form with a 6-4 card. It was basically a game of runs where Chicago loses out in the end.
Both teams are pretty even in trends except for ATS on days of rest. Bulls are 14-7 ATS after a day of rest to the Spurs' 5-6 ATS on 2 days. Spurs are almost away from home for a month now and is 1-2 ATS on the last game of a 3 game road trip or more. Last season, they went 8 road games and came out 4-4 SU 2-6 ATS. Not to be written off, they were 5-3 ATS/SU two seasons ago and three seasons before that they went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS (then again none were situated before the break, they are however 6-4 ATS in the games before the break since 00-01 season).
Anyway, the bet is mostly based on the matchup based on their last meet. It will pretty much be a matchup between Parker and Rose here. Manu's point production is canceled out by Deng as to Duncan is to Boozer. Bench is slightly in favor of the Spurs having guys like George Hill, Neal who can knock down jumpers. Good thing Bulls have a decent ben... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 16, 2011 12:40 AM
Running a quick list for tomorrow. Given up on the Hornets. Only four games I see really nice.
Miami Heat -9.0
Indiana didn't gave up against the Heat. Raptors suck and Heat will pretty much look forward to go into the break on a winning note. OVER will probably Heat as well. Raptors has allowed all teams to drop 100 on them already.
Indiana Pacers -1.5
They're playing really well and that's about it.
Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5
Lakers is already looking forward to the break. I may end up not playing this one since they're the Cavs. I'm looking at the Cavaliers' pride if they'd allow another lopsided win for the Lakers. Jackson publicly announcing his disappointment should somehow wake them up a bit.
Houston Rockets -4.0
Philadelphia looks tired from last night's game against the Grizzlies. They should have a hard time later in the game with the way the Rockets' pace themselves at home.
Posted Tuesday, February 15, 2011 10:17 PM
Who you got?
I got Hornets +2.5 and ML.
Really like them matching up against the Warriors. Them being a good team defending the perimeter and having a guard who can dictate the pace of the game.
Posted Monday, February 14, 2011 11:47 PM
NBA YTD: 343-252-14
Crazy Monday. Be back later for the fade-able plays. Leans for now.Miami Heat -5.0
Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
Charlotte Bobcats +9.0
Projected lines for the two other games:
SAC+5.5 @ OKC 205.5
UTA @ PHO pk 203.0
Posted Monday, February 14, 2011 06:48 PM
For Tracking only. Trying out some new capping thing.02/14/11
No.Carolina A&T +2.5/ML
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 10:42 PM
NBA YTD: 342-244-14
for now. Will be back later:New Jersey Net+8.0
- Crazy road trip for the Spurs. They obviously don't seem tired or anything against the Wizards. Nets play better defense at home and should at least keep within covering distance.
Charlotte Bobcats ATS
- Lazy Lakers Looming. Road scheduling for the Lakers. Fatigue should get to them.Denver@Houston UNDER 223.0
- Too many points for a tired Nuggets team. Houston is scoring near the century mark the last few games but still plays decent defense. This should barely go over the total. I see a 105-116 type of game here like their last 3 head-to-head. Look for one team to have one scoring lapse that should cost the total.
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 06:51 AM
3-2 last Saturday. Will update when I get back this evening. Here're Sunday's plays:
Boston Celtics +2 / ML (POD)
Los Angeles Lakers +1 / ML
Washington Wizards ML
Oklahoma City -1.0
Posted Saturday, February 12, 2011 12:14 AM
Won't be around for tomorrow so I guess I'm putting this up way early. Average week so far.
New Jersey Nets +3.0
Knicks are back to their losing ways. They should have a hard time on the road with Brook Lopez set to go off against Amare (like most dominant big would against him). Nets plays way better defense at home, the ability to keep the ball better (at least better than the Knicks) and a better bench should spell the difference. It seems like the league has figured them out after going on a run early this season.
Atlanta Hawks -6.5
Cats are awful playing back to back games. Hawks needed the 3 game lay off after a tough schedule with the travel and coming back home for January. Al Horford should also be good to go against the Cats which makes it even better. Also a good spot to take the Hawks after another embarrassing offensive game. Last time they were made look so bad like this, they unleashed their game against their next victim. That memory was way back two weeks ago against the Hornets only being allowed 59. Their next opponent after which was... wait for it - the Cats. They should exhibit the same thing again here.
Chicago Bulls -2.5
Last game of a long road trip angle versus 3 games in 4 nights angle. I like the Bulls here closing their 5 game road trip on the plus side. Hornets logged in heavy minutes last night against a rather up tempo team (and that OT game against Jersey). Ariza coming back is huge but this is when they'll need O... [More]
Posted Thursday, February 10, 2011 11:53 PM
NBA YTD: 338-242-14
This Week: 19-13-1
Finally, a sweep for the day. If anyone is keeping tabs, Acela Angle in effect on the LAL@NYK game tomorrow. Here's the leans for Friday:Philadelphia 76ers +3.5Toronto Raptors MLCharlotte Bobcats -6.5New Orleans Hornets +9.0Los Angeles Clippers -3.5Miami Heat -7.5
Will flip coins later and post them in big italicized verdana
Posted Thursday, February 10, 2011 01:04 AM
I've seen one thread before and seem to can't find it anymore. Remember when one thread starter creates a thread calling one play a lock and other posters will surely come in and bash the thread after it registers an L in the w/l column. Anyone interested in keeping tabs on those "lock" plays? LOL. I'll try and give it a shot starting today.
Should be interesting.
Posted Thursday, February 10, 2011 12:02 AM
Los Angeles Lakers +3.0 / ML
"Because when I flipped a coin thrice it said that the Lakers is the play. Can't argue with that and italicized Verdana fonts look hella cool and dramatic."
Posted Wednesday, February 09, 2011 08:17 PM
Cleveland Cavaliers -3.0 2nd Half
This thread titles always goes off.
Posted Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:27 PM
Two locked in for Wednesday already:New Orleans Hornets -2.0
Orlando Magic -1.0
Posted Tuesday, February 08, 2011 12:58 AM
Leans for Tuesday. Still testing out how things are. Looks like another night of tough capping. Leaning on the following:
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
Detroit Pistons +6.5
Memphis Grizzlies +7.0
Houston Rockets -8.5
Posted Sunday, February 06, 2011 10:47 PM
Had a blast watching Superbowl. Anyway, here are the leans for now. Going back to confirm plays later. One thing seem to be working and that's public bets.
Los Angeles Lakers -3.5
MIN@NO OVER 201.0
Cleveland Cavaliers +15.0
Chicago Bulls -1.5
Utah Jazz -2.0
PHO@GSW OVER 220.0
Posted Sunday, February 06, 2011 01:14 AM
Posted Sunday, February 06, 2011 01:06 AM
Saturday card looks spot on. Here's my leans for Sunday:
New York Knicks -4.5
Indiana Pacers pk
Los Angeles Clippers +12.0
Boston Celtics -4.0
Posted Saturday, February 05, 2011 01:22 AM
Not really picking anything but thought to put these thoughts out.
Atlanta Hawks -3.5 looks really good despite playing 3 games in 4 nights and on the road for Washington. They had to fashion an ugly win over the Clippers. Anyway, Washington looked like Atlanta's bitch in their head to head matchup. Hawks always winning and covering most. Horford, Crawford and Johnson usually shows up with the points. Washington lost twice to the Hawks in Atlanta early this season and it looks like they'll make it three. Wall can't dougie his way out of this one and still shows that he got a long way to go before being able to settle down in the league (shows great promise though). The only way the Wizards win this one is if they can out play the Hawk's front court and keep Joe Johnson from getting his points. Hopefully Horford keep himself together after that hard foul he received from Griffin.
The line is just right for the Mavericks and I believe neither is a good play and the game could go either way easy. Both teams playing 3 games in 4 nights with the Cats finally able to play back at home after a 6 game road trip. They lucked out only to face the Heat after that one. The second of a back to back should remind them of the fatigue despite playing at home now. Dallas should be good to go and is currently playing well averaging 108ppg their last 5 on almost 50% shooting! Crazy numbers, I know and even is rebounding even better now which makes them even scarier. Terry, Kidd, C... [More]
Posted Friday, February 04, 2011 01:29 AM
The Acela Angle
February 12, 2007
By Ed Meyer
The most talked about road trips among NBA handicappers are the trip through the Texas Triangle of Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, the trip through Florida to face the Heat and Magic and the trip through Utah and Denver.
However, perhaps the trip with the most interesting and profitable results involves a trip you can take on the Acela, the high speed train that goes between Boston and New York, with the round trip taking under four hours. The Celtics’ and Knicks’ franchises have a wealth of basketball history and success associated with them. They are in the “club” of past NBA champions. As such, these two have a certain amount of respect for each other. This respect is not manifested when they play each other – the respect is apparent when another team is trying to sweep the storied franchises on the road, back-to-back.
It seems as if New York and Boston have a pact – unspoken or other otherwise – that no team will sweep them consecutively. If a team beats the Knicks in New York, the Celtics go all out to prevent the 2-0, New York – Boston sweep.
Similarly, if a team beats the Celtics in Boston, the Knicks “pick them up” by playing significantly above the linesmakers expectations. This “agreement” has been going on for quite some ... [More]
Posted Thursday, February 03, 2011 02:06 AM
NBA YTD: 319-229-13
This Week: 6-12
Horrible week. Will probably play Thursday and take the rest of the week off.
Miami Heat +1.5 @ Orlando Magic 195.5
In the first meeting between two of the East's top teams, Wade led the Heat with 26 points outscoring the Magic 28-10 in the 3rd en route to a 96-70 win. This was the Heat's first home game as well. Fast forward, say almost a month later, Orlando jumped on the Heat and controlled major minutes of the game with a 15-6 spurt in the last 4 minutes of the pay off round to seal the win 104-95.
Both games have contrasting feel to it with Miami winning the 3rd Quarter SU/ATS as the only thing that is consistent. Bosh and James barely made scoring impact in Game 1 and doubled it up on the second game. Outside Dwight, Orlando could barely get anyone going in the 1st game after being allowed only 30% in FG. The second game went very well with JJ Reddick and Brandon Bass responding well en route to a team FG percentage of 51. Miami shot 40% in both games which tells you more about the Magic's team defense.
The more I look at both games, the more I'm enticed to play the UNDER 195.5. Miami plays better defense against the better teams in the league. They are two steps better at home but can't be denied that they are still a force on the road. Let's check the numbers.
Miami is 10th in the league with the least Pace Factor at 93.2 to Orlando's 93.9 (13th). Pace is the number of pos... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:29 PM
Playing the Los Angeles Clippers +2.5
tonight for a nice little sum. Ex-Bulls coach should have the formula to stopping his old guys and Blake Griffin is just too exciting to watch. I'd love to see the Clipjoin extend that home game winning streak to 10.
Posted Wednesday, February 02, 2011 01:20 AM
NBA YTD: 317-225-13
This Week: 4-8
Don't even get me started on those loses. LOL.
Indiana Pacers -5.5
Fading the Cavs till they win. Not really a tricky line. Pacers are 6-16 SU on the road and have lost 5 road games in a row. They're also not in good form winning only 3 of their last 10 games and barely showed much promise in that win against the Raptors. Both teams had one day off with the Pacers having a slight edge ATS wise at 12-7-2 to the Cavs' 3-11-1. They also played each other thrice already with the Pacers winning at an average of 11 points with an average total of 193.
Of course, the key stat in all these is that Danny Granger shows up in 3 games averaging 29 points per game. Hopefully he uses the new found momentum from the coaching change (and the win) and use it to keep on rolling. Pacers are just a game behind the Cats for the 8th spot and they'd need wins from easy teams as they can. Matchup wise it should be very interesting with Hibbert and Hickson squaring off. The only thing that worries me here is that the Pacers will surely get pounded against a Cavs team that has nothing to lose.
Honorable mention (leans):
Philadelphia 76ers -1.5Detroit Pistons -2.5Dallas Mavericks +1.5/MLMEM@MIN UNDER 210.5Portland Trailblazers +8.0CHI@LAC UNDER 194.0
Posted Tuesday, February 01, 2011 01:39 AM
NBA YTD: 317-221-13
This Week: 4-4
New Orleans Hornets -10.0
Earlier in January Hornets were a 1-point road fave in Washington. They were down 5 at the half before limiting the Wizards to only 34 points in the 2nd half en route to a 92-81 win. You gotta love fading the Wizards in this spot. 6 games packed in 9 days and to make it even worst the last 4 games was scheduled on the road against Oklahoma, Memphis, and Dallas before completing the trip in New Orleans. Hornets on a pissed state losing their last two games to the Kings and the Suns. With fatigue going against the Wizards, the rested Hornets will surely jump on them and take advantage of it. The only problem I see is that the Hornets, if ever they have any reasons to, would look ahead past the tired Wizards team and on to the game against the Thunders up next. Wizards are 3-7 ATS on back to back games, 6-18 ATS on the road which doesn't make them look any better.
Boston Celtics -6.5
I can't remember the "after beating LA" trend is at now. Was it 12-3 now after the Kings won over the Hornets? I believe it should still be in effect here. Coast is clear to play the Celtics since they're not playing back to back. Only thing that the Celtics may look forward to is resting back at home after a scheduled 4 road games in a 6 days span. No reason not to like Boston here either, they have the size to give the younger Kings team some trouble and well KG will always be KG.