Posted Thursday, April 30, 2009 01:43 AM
No sweatin' that Denver game. I welcome you guys back in this thread for some more easy cash. 3 games for Thursday and I extremely like one in particular.
Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 184
If there's anything to bet on in this game, it should be the UNDER total. Let's face it. Even if I ask my little cousin who knows little against the NBA would pick the 76ers to win upon knowing that Dwight Howard of the Magic is out. I know I shouldn't be over thinking this one so if there's anything to bet on the side, it should be the ML or no bet at all. It does feel like they're pushing this series to 7.
Anyway, with the Defensive player of the year out it should shake the total a bit but instead it even adjusted lower by 4 points (188 in game 5). I guess Philly will be missing Dwight's 24/15 and almost 3 blocks per game as well as Courtney Lee's offensive help.
As I said in Game 5, we'll see Turk back to his horrendous shooting and he was. I say, game 6 features the very same Turk. Philly will have easy coverage now as they don't have to worry about Gortat or Redick. Focus will now be on both Turk and Shard. Again, Magic still don't have any answer for AM#7.
We'll see a slow pace dictated by Philadelphia 76ers with the Magic putting up a fight. I say they would put up a fight as I already see refs into this game, pushing Orlando to keep up within the spread. As this would happen, hopefully we still log in and get that under. IMO, if th... [More]
Posted Wednesday, April 29, 2009 02:35 AM
1-1 yesterday. Laughed myself at the sudden change of pace in that Hou/Por game after the prolific scoring in the 1st Quarter. Anyway, Wednesday looks oh so damn good. Will be out for the rest of the day tomorrow so I'll leave you with my play tonight. I'm debating on whether play both unders but something's telling me something ain't right.
Denver Nuggets -10.5
Nuggets has that killer instinct. I know we've seen teams fight back after getting blown away in this season's playoff games but not in the West. New Orleans looks to salvage and try to extend their playoff life tonight with a win in Denver but I don't think they can. Denver is one of the best home team in the league giving out only 8 losses this season (25-17-1 ATS). I know 10 points would be so much and even to win by 11 against a New Hornets team but think again. After that demoralizing game, looks like the rest of the Hornets' roster has given up on this series. Denver has also won by more than 15 points at the least in this series. Denver rests for the next round after this one.
Posted Tuesday, April 28, 2009 12:05 AM
Special day today. I don't know why but I extremely like two plays today. Follow at your own risk as I've seen myself in bad water when playing two or three more games. The best is to really stick to a play and let it roll. I'll just let you guys decide which one you like best:
Philadelphia 76ers/Orlando Magic UNDER 188
Game 5. Orlando has really struggled in this series against this 76ers team that has upped their defense. Combined team total averages 184ppg and the game set total averages 192.25 and it is only now that the total is set to the lowest. I say 188 points is waaay sharp for the total and with almost a 4-point difference from the previous total I'd say there's some real value there.
Hot trends are all listed in favor of the over. Anyway, O/U records shows that Orlando is a much better defensive team (or more like they blow teams away at home right at the get-go) with a 16-27 o/u record. Although the visiting team plays a different tune at 24-17-2 o/u record. The whole season the Orlando-Philly matchup has shown 4 unders to 2 games going over and that is only when one team has broken the century mark.
We should see another long night with good peremeter defense from both teams and a lot of contested shots. IMO, Philly stays with Orlando all the way as they don't have a real answer for Andre Miller. Hedo has broken off his shooting slump with an 8 of 11 FG answer in game 4. I say Philly sinks their claws deeper and ups their Defens... [More]
Posted Monday, April 27, 2009 12:33 AM
Back to square one. Let's start a streak again with this one. Tonight we've seen defense being key into winning games. Let's go back to what we do best and play totals. I'll use stats again as it has been hot when we cap games with it affecting which play to bet on.
Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat UNDER 186
First let's talk about the numbers. The series already saw 3 games resulting to an average of 180 at with the game total averaging at 185.67. Line opened at 188 and now down to 186 with close to 57% on the OVER. Anyway, Heat averages 93 points in this series as to the Hawks' 87 points.
Miami is a monster at home as I've seen them erase double digit deficit in the 4th and still end up winning that game. The fans just love The Flash out there and he has been stellar for them on both ends of the court. J.O. looked like he turned the clock back with that 20/10 performance chipping in 3 blocks. Atlanta on the other hand is just a different team on the road. They've yet to get a road win in the playoffs for a long time now. They average 43.33% in FG% even after that blow out win in Game 1 (they only shot 46.2% in that blow out win). I see the very same defense going to be applied in Game 4 with the Heat on a slight advantage with their wild crowd behind them.
Posted Sunday, April 26, 2009 08:40 AM
Missed posting yesterday but the good thing is we managed to grab one win the other day with Cleveland. Anyway, let's get to it:Orlando Magic -4
I'll make this quick. Stats-wise it should almost be even with one team's advantage evening out with the other's own advantage. What I see in this game is that Hedo and Lewis is missing. They probably aren't 100% healthy and most likely has been running low on oil after running for almost 82 games to get them this spot.
Orlando went down twice down the stretch and even with Turk's atrocious playing they've managed to keep it tight. Both teams coming off bad stretched before heading into the play-offs and Philly looks like it's recovering but I tell you they're still half as good as they should be. Don't expect another Courtney Lee erupting to 20+ points here, nor another hitting the game winner in the dying seconds. Orlando out runs this 76ers team out of Philadelphia building and back at Orlando for the lead.
Posted Friday, April 24, 2009 04:32 AM
After going 4-0 we back down with a 0-2 the last 2 days. The OVER riders were brutally murdered with all those games going UNDER. And other than the Lakers-Utah game we saw two crazy-ass blow out game. I really can't decide which game to play. Anyway, here we go:
Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5
Totals looks pretty much a toss coin out there. I see the side having more potential than the total. Anyway, we've seen in the last two games that Detroit has given up on this series. Sure, they are one of the most pride-ful team in the league but their pride won't do them any good against LBJ23 and his boys.
No real point in comparing stats as it's an obvious lop-sided one for the Cavs. Point here is that Pistons are finished. They are lucky enough to have ended up in that 8th spot enduring that hell of a season. They've gotten what they wanted with the AI-Billups trade and I bet they wouldn't care being blown in the playoffs. Getting there with what they have right now is a huge consolation by itself.
Cavs outplays them in Auburn Hills. There's no stopping LeBron James out there. He'll rest after 4 and get ready for Playoff Round number 2.
Runner-Ups (more like leans):
Posted Thursday, April 23, 2009 12:00 PM
Running late for work. So can't really make much of a write up right now. I'll follow up with it. A play would do for now. Let's get back to playing totals where we've been hot.
San Antonio Spurs/Dallas Mavericks OVER 190
Posted Wednesday, April 22, 2009 01:33 AM
4 day winning streak with our big plays. We've been hot with totals and I bet a lot of you have been earning good money on them OVERs. A lot of good games going on Wednesday night and I'm actually leaning on a repeat of what had happened in each series' Game 1. Anyway, let's hope we get this a winner:
Atlanta Hawks -5
I was thinking of the UNDER again but what the heck. I feel this one's way better (and yes this play is quite close behind Denver ATS and Philly ATS). Let's break it down.
Hawks averages 85.6 ppg against the Heat as Miami averages 78.8 against Atlanta. That's an easy 6.8 points difference and an assuring 164.4 ppg for the OVER/UNDER people. Average margin of victory for the Hawks is 12.5 ppg in 4 games against Miami (Miami has won in 1/26/08 by 16). ATS-wise, Atlanta has went 44-38-1 to Miami's 40-41-2, going 23-18-1 at home against Miami's average 20-21-1 on the road.
Anyway, the big reason why we are playing Atlanta is because of D-Wade! In the 3 games he played against Atlanta in the regular season, he averages 25.7 ppg which which is a few points below his average. He's been allowed at an average of 4 trips to the line which means these Hawks has been playing stellar defense on him. I bet it's almost as if breathing as I tell you that Wade is the life and death of this team. He plays well they put up a good fight, if he didn't then they're screwed.
Atlanta doesn't need to look for anyone else in that Miami roste... [More]
Posted Tuesday, April 21, 2009 05:01 AM
Solid 3-day winning streak already. Hope we do not jinx it as we proceed to our 4th day. Another 3-1 day yesterday along with my other plays but what we got so far is our 3-0 record going one solid play a day.
Houston Rockets / Portland Trail Blazers OVER 184
Riding along the hot OVER trend in the NBA Play-Offs we get to see another one here. Okay so let's break it down again and use what's been working.
First let's talk about the numbers. Houston averages 98.5 ppg while allowing 94.3 ppg. That's an easy over when going at 192.8 ppg. On the road they play up to their average scoring 97.2 ppg again, allowing up to 97.4 ppg. That's an easy total of 194.6 ppg. Portlandgoes up to 99.2 ppg this season while allowing only 94.3 ppg. They rack it up to 103.4 ppg while allowing the visiting team 93.8 ppg. Both stat combines 193.5 and 197.2 ppg respectively. When you average both team's game total average we get 193. ppg and 195.9 ppg which is a couple of points above the set total.
We're not really moving out of the stats yet. This time we check out their Over-Under record. Let's begin with the visiting Rockets. Houston although thought to be a defensive team is a 41-42-0 O/U record, and is a decent 23-19-1 on the road. The young Portland team on the other hand is 39-42-1 but a nice 21-19-1 O/U record at home.
The last few games between both team has went over 4 of 4 times getting an average set total of 185.1. Game total on one hand avera... [More]
Posted Monday, April 20, 2009 04:33 AM
2-0 run with our solid plays this Play-offs. We're lucky to get to 3-1 with the rest of my plays yesterday. Really profitable. Anyway, only two games Monday night I got one for you guys all covered up. Let's see if we can get it to 3 in a row.
Chicago Bulls / Boston Celtics OVER 196.5
Damn, something ain't right with my web browser and ended up erasing my write-up. Anyway, I won't be reposting the stats I came up in Game 1 for this series(If you're interested just check out my space and look at it in my blog post).
Okay, I'm gonna make this one quick. Bulls and Celts has shown play-off intensity basketball in the first game of the series. Thus the reason for the somewhat decreased FG%. Players like John Salmons (Bulls) and Ray Allen (Celtics) weren't really into the game. I see players like them bouncing back. Rebounding has been costly for the Celts without Garnett to also jam the middle. They've been allowing a lot of points lately and I believe this will continue on heading into tonight's contest.
Boston seem to have forgotten to play DEFENSE with the Big Ticket sidelined. They've totalled to 197.7 ppg in their last 10, 203.0 ppg their last 5. Well Chicago games has been running around 200-213 ppg their last 5 to 10 games. With that said, even with a play-offs atmosphere, there'd be a great chance for another score fest and so the OVER play. We were lucky for an OT but it shouldn't need one the next one.
Forget about Boston D. Forget... [More]
Posted Sunday, April 19, 2009 04:31 AM
Wow. Yesterday's well written analysis on that OVER really paid off. Let get another one out there. I'd post my other plays if you're interested later on. But mind you, one a day is still the best even if it's Play-off time. Let's see how long we could have a streak going on with our "one-play-a-day." Okay, next up....
New Orleans Hornets / Denver Nuggets OVER 194.5
First let's talk about the numbers. New Orleans averages 95.8 ppg while allowing only to 94.3 ppg. That's a combined to 190.1 ppg which is a little below the set total. On the road they play up to their average scoring 96.9 ppg again, allowing up to 95.3 ppg. That's a total of 192.2 ppg again just a little below the set total. Denver, scores 104.3 ppg this season while allowing as much as 100.9 ppg. They rack it up to 107.8 ppg while allowing the visiting team close to their average which is 100.7 ppg. Both stat combines as high as 205.2 and 208.5 ppg respectively. When you average both team's game total average we get 197.6 ppg and 197.1 ppg which is a couple of points above the set total. Again, we are following the same statistics capping style as we successfully managed to win yesterday in the Chi/Bos game.
This time we check out their Over-Under record.Let's begin with the visiting Hornets. New Orleans stands a solid 34-46-2 O/U record, only 18-21-2 on the road. The Nuggets on the other hand is a decent 42-40-0 and 23-18-1 O/U record at home. There won't be much of a dif... [More]
Posted Thursday, April 16, 2009 11:12 PM
Let's get this started. We'll make lots in this stage of the NBA. Let me hear what you think with these plays:
Chicago Bulls / Boston Celtics OVER 196.5
First let's talk about the numbers. Chicago averages 102.2 ppg ranking
8th in the league in PPG while allowing up to 102.5 ppg. That's easily
combined to a 202.7 ppg. On the road they play up to their average
scoring 100 ppg again, allowing up to 104.7 ppg. That's an easy total
of 204.7 ppg. Boston, ranking 10th in PPG scores 100.9 ppg this season
while allowing only 93.4 ppg. They rack it up to 104.6 ppg while
allowing the visiting team 94.4 ppg. Both stat combines 194.3 and 199
ppg respectively. When you average both team's game total average we
get 198.5 ppg and 201.9 ppg which is a couple of points above the set
We're not really moving out of the stats yet. This time we check out
their Over-Under record.Let's begin with
the visiting Bulls. The Bulls stands a solid 43-37-2 O/U record, only
20-20-1 on the road. Boston on the other hand is 41-40-1 but a nice
26-14-1 O/U record at home. Kevin Garnett's injury is nothing but an OVER total blessing. Boston has gone 7-2 o/u in their last 9 games without him. In both teams last 3 games. O/U went 2-1 with two games going for more than 220 points.
John Salmons and Ben Gordon are two OVER totals machine who knows nothing but to score the ball. This young Bulls team will be constantly driving the lane and dishing... [More]
Posted Wednesday, April 15, 2009 12:25 PM
LA Clippers +1.5
Posted Monday, April 13, 2009 11:13 AM
3-1 the last few days. If you're looking for a lot of NBA action it's not here. Anyway, I got three plays for mondays. Not really my style but I can't decide which should be the best play out of them. That's also the reason why I have Arizona (MLB) as my Survivor play of the day. Okay, so what's scary here is two of them are double digit home faves and huge road dogs has been money lately (well even huge home dogs). Hell, I say both these teams finish strong. I don't see a young team such as Portland sleeping up on a lowly Oklahoma team. They get it done carrying a momentum which they need to jump start heading into the play-off. I'm just throwing out Detroit there because of a really good gut feel. I think them MoTown boys stop these kids from rolling.Detroit -3.5
Posted Monday, April 13, 2009 10:55 AM
Posted Sunday, April 12, 2009 10:42 AM
New Orleans -3.5
Chandler or No-Chandler. Nawlins take this one. They were 7.5-point road dog two nights ago now they're set up as a 3.5 home fave. Then again, they are on a serious free fall. I don't really count that OT win against Miami as a winner there. Something not just right here. Purely a gut feel here so do fade away if you feel it's the best.
Posted Sunday, April 12, 2009 10:22 AM
NBA has done me well. Looking to get on the right track over here in MLB. Let's do this, as usual, playing just one play a day.
St. Louis Cardinals -132
Posted Saturday, April 11, 2009 06:41 AM
How you doin fellas? I took quite a nice break and thought of sharing wins with you guys again so we have a nice sum to throw around when the NBS Play-offs starts.
Orlando Magic -6
These boys shouldn't really be playing ball right now and look to rest them big guns for the big day. I say these boys go and tie for the franchise's season best 60 wins. Although both teams are decent against the spread, Orlando own the New Jersey SU/ATS-wise this season. Magic, perhaps the best ATS team has yet to go 0-4 ATS this season. The last time they were set to get a 4th loss was when they were set as a 12-point favorite against the short-handed Milwaukee team just a couple of weeks ago. The "disgusting" loss they receive from New York should just add more fire to them playing well, bouncing back tonight
Phoenix / Minnesota UNDER 225.5
Crazy shit here. I think Phoenix has officially given up on their season and I still don't trust my money on the Wolves so let's play the totals. Minnesota is 0-2 O/U when they are given a total of 220+ and that are both against Golden State. Phoenix should be tired coming off a 3 games in 4 nights on the road scenario again. I see this game going near 210 but won't get to the 220 mark. As much as I'd like to take Phoenix as a side bet. My instinct is telling me not to as the line suggests the other way. I say this goes somewhere near the GS@MIN total as well.
Milwaukee Bucks -6
Oklahoma travelling to Milwa... [More]
Posted Wednesday, April 01, 2009 03:52 AM