3-1 Monday. Should've rolled with my instinct with the Lakeshow but got screwed by Ye Old Folks. Then again you can't win them all, good thing Dallas came crawling back against the Warriors. Here's what I think for Tuesday:
Indiana Pacers -1.5 and
UNDER 202How bad could the Pacers get? Anyway, I've circled this game for the Bulls to win but seeing Tyrus listed as probable due to a suspension and Noah sidelined due to his foot injury, I don't see it happening (Deng is nursing a hurt shoulder going to Tuesday's game). They did played without both big men against the Heat but Miami is just in shambles and came close to covering. Anyway, Indiana's next game will be after the all star game and they'll definitely put up a show at home before taking a vacation. The Bulls on one hand will be hosting the Magic the next day in Windy City and IMO a possible look ahead angle here. Not much stat to back my Indiana lean but matchup-wise tells me that the Pacers' size get the best of this Bulls team. Not pulling the trigger on the side yet though I like the UNDER here instead. Bulls could barely get to 90+ points on the road with a 10-15-1 O/U record. Pacers is not much of an UNDER team as they look but is actually a 10-13-2 O/U at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5Now I'm scared of this game. Both teams have been hot and streaking. Philadelphia manages to get 4 wins on a row with 3 of those wins on the road and to count they caught the streaking Bulls, Hornets and the Rockets on the road. Wolves bested the Grizz on the road and headlined the Dallas' newspaper with an upset win (although it isn't really an upset IMO). Here's the deal, Wolves are only 4-21 on the road this season but is surprisingly a 12-13 ATS road team. They went 4-3 ATS on 2 days of rest. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has won 8-16 SU at home but has only covered 6 of those 8 wins and is so-so on 2 days rest with a 5-5 ATS card. If you also look at the past matchup, Wolves managed to edge the 76ers at home in OT but then that was when they had Iverson on the floor for Philly. Flynn uncharacteristically dropped 29 against them in that game. Anyway, with Love and AJ finally getting to play well together I don't see any reason why they lose by more than 6 points. I think the books are giving too much respect on the 76ers here tonight.
New York Knicks -5 and OVER 212.5Both teams barely knew of the word "Defense" and that's probably all the write up I could whip up for the total. Not much writeup on this game either, it could go either way easily as this game looks like nothing more than a game of runs. Knicks could be up double digit for a quarter and it could be gone in the next 5 or 6 minutes. I'm banking on the Knicks here for having the better record at home with 12-15 and seeing Sacto-Town on a downward spiral. Knicks also playing the last game at home before hitting the break. Kings have the Pistons the next day before taking a break (which sets them up on a 3 games in 4 nights stint).
Milwaukee Bucks -7.5These boys are a lot more serious than the this sorry Detroit team. Bucks has been playing well thanks to Redd's early season exit due to his injury. Bucks are pretty awesome ATS-wise 15-8 at home, 8-3 on 2 days of rest against Detroit's 9-13 ats road record and 6-4-1 on 2 days of rest. They've split the season series so far with the home team getting the best of the matchup. Taking the home team here who is a hell lot better ATS-wise in this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder -1The only reason I can think of for the low line is that Rose Garden is a tough place to play in. At first, I thought isn't this line rather low? I was expecting somewhere around 4 or 5 with the way OK City has been reppin'. Portland is actually on shambles winning only 4 of its last 10 games and covering 5 of them. OK City is riding a mile high momentum going to this game on a 5 game winning streak raking in 7 wins in their last 10 and covering the same amount as well. They've been a blessing on the road with a 18-7 ATS record to the Blazers' 13-14 ATS at home. OKC is 7-2 ATS on 2 days of rest to Portland's 4-3-1 who'll be playing in Arizona the next day. Taking KD35 here looking to end the first half of the season with a bang.
Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 / MLCan someone tell me why the Clip-joint is only a 4.5 point dog against the red hot Jazz team who has won 8 in a row and 13 of its last 14 games and recording a 7-1-2 ATS the last 10 games. Then again we only saw 3 road games in that 10 games stretch and we all know that the Jazz isn't playing good music on the road as much as they can at home. Sure that may be a good reason for such a line but tell me this, Clipjoint has won 3 of its last 10 games and only covered 5 of the 10 games. They'll be fielding a new head coach and you guys know too well that such situation makes of a good fade material. Both teams will be having a game the next day with the Jazz looking to play at home against a
possibly Kobe/Bynum-less Lakeshow, and the Clipjoint playing the Warriors in The Bay the next day. ATS stats tells me that the Jazz is the better play here but like what happened in LA against the Spurs today, I think I'm reconsidering and playing my gut feel with the Clipjoint!
BOL.