DA_BOYS's Blog

Posted Tuesday, January 03, 2012 01:27 PM

For the life of me I can't figure out why Michigan is favored by 3

Michigan's strength is their run.  They do not want to force Robinson to pass.  He completes only 56% and has 18/14 td/int.  Those are not great numbers.  VT also had 15 int's this year (21st)
Michigan has only faced 2 teams with decent (top 50) rush defenses this year.  Illinois(25th) and Michigan St(9th). They scored 31 and 14 vs those teams. In the Illinois game Michigan scored 14 points in the 4th quarter because of an int on the Illinois 23 and a failed onside kick. 
Michigan does have a much larger O-line than the VT D-line but VT has the 15th ranked rush defense and are tied for 10th in sacks.  I also believe they will stack the box and force Robinson to throw nullifying their benefit from size up front.  VT defensive ends are pretty fast and should be able to get after Robinson and at least contain him to the middle for short gains.
Mich D-line line is about the same size as the VT O-line so I believe VT will be running Wilson a fair bit to the outside and Thomas up the middle on QB draws.  VT also has a much better passing attack with Thomas and has a much deeper receiving corps.
I see this as a 24-21 game for VT.
Playing VT+3.5  - 2 unitsTeaser VT +10.5 and U59.   - 4 unitsI would play the under but I'm afraid of a last second td would cause it to hit 52 and lose.  I tend to get moosed a lot especially on under wagers.

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Posted Sunday, December 25, 2011 12:00 AM

Anyone know a website that keeps track of wager %

I know of pregame.com sportsbook spy but I want to check back at games already played and I don't think you can do that there.

I am curious as to how many times in these bowl games that the under 30% of wagers placed are winning.  Seems to be awful lot of them hitting.  Only the Boise game I believe did the majority on boise and the over hit.






Posted Tuesday, November 22, 2011 12:39 PM

Miami/Ohio Weather impact...

If the field is soaked and it continues to rain it has to be a clear cut advantage for Ohio.  Wet and rainy conditions generally means a lot more rushing of the ball.
Miami are worst (120th) in rushing at 75 yards per game.  They had 3 decent rushing games this year vs Akr, Army, Buf who rank 109th, 88th, 93rd vs the run and in those games they still rushed for 50 yards, 25 yards and 60 yards less that the other team's average against.  2 of those games were blowout victories and they focused on the run once they were way up.  In Akron Dysert had only 19 attempts and in Buf he had only 25 where typically he has about 35-40 attempts per game.  So even when they focus on running they stink.
Ohio ran for over 200 yards in all their games except for 3.  Rutgers who are a completely different caliber team who sit atop the Big East.  Kent St who are 26th ranked rush defense and Ohio ran for 115 vs their 123 average against.  Miami ran for 41 vs Kent St.  And Ohio ran for 130 vs Ball St average of 230 which I have no explanation for.
Last year H2H Ohio put up 223 yards rushing and Miami put up 14 on 20 attempts.  That's less than a yards per attempt.
As long as the weather remains wet and raining I will be playing the under 53 and Ohio -9 but I will wait until later in the day to confirm with the weather.
Ohio 31-14.


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Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 04:18 PM

Min vs GB sack question - 5 or 6 total sacks???

Different websites show different information regarding the number of sacks in that game.  Some sites show 5 and others show 6.
Even the nfl.com boxscore website only has 2 sacks credited to Minn defensive players(Allen for 1 and Winfield for 1) yet have Rodgers as being sacked 3 times for a loss of 22 yards on the same page.
Does anyone have the proper number of sacks for this game?
Pinnacle is claiming that there was only 5 sacks and screwing me out of a large wager on the over.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011111400/2011/REG10/vikings@packers#menu=highlights&tab=analyze
In the defense section only 2 sacks were credited to Minn defensive players but..
Under Net yards passing you will see Net Yards Passing162Net Yards Passing266Times Sacked (Number-Yards)3 - 28Times Sacked (Number-Yards)3 - 22
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Posted Monday, November 07, 2011 06:50 PM

Tonight's insights - Bears at Eagles

Great spot for the Bears tonight.  Week off to prepare Cutler and the defense vs Vick.  Cutler does need all the help he can get.  Blowout win by the Eagles leads to the public inflated line.  
Both teams defenses are close to the top for least amount of rushing attempts/game and Chi is the highest in pass attempts/game.  Cutler is a sack machine and I think the Bears defense gets after Vick tonight.  I think we see some nice blitzing schemes from Chicago tonight.  Babin for Phi should get Cutler twice and Cole is back and has gotten a sack in every game he has played so he should get 1 sack.  I think each side gets 3 sacks or more.
Sacks O5 @-131  4 units
I also think the Bears will cause 2 fumbles by Vick trying to escape the pressure they put on him.
I think this game will be won by the defenses.  Meaning a low scoring game.  Hopefully Chi can cause a few turnovers and capitalize on them.  I see this as a 24-20 type game hopefully for Chicago with a lot of 3 and out's.  Give Peppers and Urlacher an extra week to prepare and I think they cause a lot of trouble for the opposing offense.
Total Under 47.5 @-114  2 unitsBears ML @+334  1 unitBears +10.5 @-146  2 units (Even if Cutler shits the bed I really don't think the Bears can lose by more than 10 on MNF after a bye week. So I'm willing to pay the extra juice)Bears TT O17.5 @-114  2 units (Think Hester has 1 magical runback ... [More]

Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 04:18 PM

Why all the love for KC?

They've won their last 3 yes.  But let's look at those 3 more in depth.
Oak.  W28-0.  Looks like they dominated but No McFadden and no Campbell.  By no means is Campbell great but Palmer and Boller in for that game and gave up 6 int's.  2 of those returned for td's.  KC scored 14 offensive points.  Equal rushing and passing yards for both teams.  Cassel threw 15/30 for 161 yards and 2 int's vs a team that averages over 250 yards/game.  Not that impressive a win considering who was playing for Oak.  I believe had McFadden not gotten hurt and Campbell was in this game would have been a loss for KC.
IND W28-24.  Colts are right now the worst in the league.  Andrew Luck future winners.  Painter is brutal and so is Indy's defense.  KC barely squeaked out a win.  They did come back from 17-0 which is impressive but it was against a really really bad team.   Had this comeback been vs almost anyone else I would put a lot more faith into the KC offense.  
MIN W22-17.  McNabb at the helm for the Vikings.  Not a terrible game for KC as they put up about the norm as to what MIN gives up for rushing and passing and Cassel did not give anything away.  But it was still McNabb and he did throw 1 int in the redzone that KC turned into a fg.  Succop also hit 2 50+ yard fg's.  This game could have been a very different score had McNabb not thrown that int when he did and had Su... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 02, 2011 12:01 AM

4 games really cost me today GT, LSU, Baylor, Nebraska

 on that stupid fumble when GT should have taken a knee to end the game. -$500.

Back door cover in LSU game.  -$500.

RG3 throws his first int of the year and Kansas St scores 10 in the 4th to Baylor 0 to win.  -$500.   This one hurt the most as it was the only loser in an 8 game parlay for $11k.

Nebraska calls a meaningless timeout on the 1 yard line with 12 secs left down by 31 in order to run a qb draw up the middle that fails miserably.  lose on my 2nd Half O28. -$500.

They never seem to go my way.  All my wins were in convincing fashion.  Tex, Aub, Clem, Ala, Wisc and a couple of overs that hit by 3rd quarter.

Could have been a stellar day but turns out to be a negative day.

Hope some nfl plays will go my way tomorrow.




Posted Saturday, October 01, 2011 11:41 PM

Nebraska calls timeout with 12 seconds left..and...

down by a ton so the only people it affects are the over/under 28 2nd half.

they run a horrible qb draw behind the left guard.  Terrible.  Why call timeout if that is the best play you can come up with?  not to mention they started in I formation and had 2 RB's sweeping to the left and only 1 defender on that side.  They ran the qb option over and over up the field gaining yards each time and now they try and sneak the qb up the middle??  It doesn't make sense.  




Posted Monday, August 15, 2011 03:06 PM

Favorite play is KC TT O3.5 -127

Royals do well against righties especially at home.

And did I forget that it is Burnett...ERA over 7 in past 3, around 5 in night and away games.  8 of the last 10 when Burnett starts the opposing team has scored at least 4 runs.  The last time a team has not scored 4 was at the end of June.

I don't expect KC to win so they should get 9 innings of at bat but hopefully he will give up 4 by the end of the 6th.






Posted Saturday, August 13, 2011 02:51 PM

New strategy- single afternoon games and sunday nights

When there is only 1 afternoon game like today with LAA/Tor, I will be betting against whatever the public is betting as it is almost always wrong.  Don't care who it is or anything about it I am just going to start betting the opposite for this 1 game.

Sunday nights are hitting the unders like crazy as well.  16-8.  




Posted Thursday, July 21, 2011 03:16 PM

Had SD O7 just bought U10, smart?

Had SD O7 -143 for $900/600 and just bought U10 -112 for $800/700.

Also have SD for $200/300

My thinking is that should the total hit 7, 8, 9 or 10 I win.  If it's U7 then I saved my ass on my original wager and if it's 11 or over then I only lose $200.

I love playing live under wagers when I already have the over and a ton of runs are scored in the first or second inning.  It's rare that the team or teams continue to put up crazy numbers.




Posted Tuesday, July 19, 2011 06:51 PM

Tuesday picks - keep that train rollin..

45-32  +21.46 units since July 9th
All wagers 1 unit unless noted.
Bos ML -116Bos O5 -120Bos O10 -124SD U7 -116Mil U9.5 -122SF U6.5 -110Oak U9.5 -128Tor O7 -115 2 unitsTB ML +101TB O8.5 -110Min O7 -122 2 unitsStL O7.5 -130Phi ML -145Was O4 -116 2 units Col U9 -115



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Posted Monday, July 18, 2011 12:59 PM

Monday day and night games +15.24 units in 10 days

39-28  +15.24 units   Since July 9th
Clev/Min  G1  Huff/SwarzakMin ML -136Min RL +146O8.5 -125Huff is good for 5 in 5.Almost 95 degrees in Min should mean the ball goes far.Swarzak pitching really well.  But should give up 2 or 3.Min is 12-4 game 1 after winning last game.Orlando and Sizemore are out.I see this game 6-3 or 6-4.

NYY/TB  Burnett/CobbNYY ML -130O8.5 -112At home Cobb is 3-0 over.  Burnett is his last 10 vs TB has hit 9 or more 9 times.Burnett will give up a bunch but against TB his numbers are actually not bad.  Longoria is the only guy with great numbers against him.  Most are batting .169 to .250 with most of them around .200.Yankees have never faced Cobb but they are patient hitters so it will only take to the 3rd before they start to figure him out if they don't in the 1st.I see it at least 5-4 but more likely 7-4.

Bos/Bal  Wakefield/BergesonBos ML -121Bos TTO5 -110Most people will think that Boston players will be tired after last night then having to fly to Baltimore.  I don't.You never know what your going to get with Wakefield but you do with Bergeson.  He has a home ERA of 8.19.   Against Boston at home Boston has scored at least 6 runs in each of the 4 games.  Berg is also 0-4 at home and his team is 0-5.  HIs team is 1-8 with him starting.  Now they face the powerhouse that is the Red Sox.

Was/Hou  Marquis/LylesWas ML -110Marquis starts an... [More]

Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 01:07 PM

Sunday Sunday Sunday

Mets O8  
CWS
Tor O9.5
StL  2 units
O8.5
Cle  2 units
Pit  2 units
Min
Mil
SF  2 units
O5.5
Oak
O6.5
LAD
Tex



Posted Saturday, July 16, 2011 01:03 PM

Saturday picks

YTD  24-17-1  +9.35 units

Won 2 units with Tex last night but did not post so I did not count it.
2 days ago won 3 units on 2 over plays.

Today's plays
LAA G1 1st H pick -125  2 units
In 8 of Cahill's last 10 starts by the half way point they were losing.
One of those they were tied.
Weaver has a tendency to give up 1 or less in the first half.  As long as the Angels can get 2 before half this bet should be golden.
The only thing that scares me is that last year Weaver lost all 3 starts in Oakland.

NYY/Tor U8.5 -125
CC is stellar on fire right now and is really good on the road and day games and so is Romero at home and day games.
Yankees bats are asleep right now.
Stats for Tor batters vs CC are brutal.  Stats for NY batters vs Romero are better but not by much.
Wanted to take the Jays ML as well but I can't take a side and the under and I felt more confident in the under.

Fla/CHC  Cubs and O8.5  -108 and -115   0.5 units each
Vazquez away and day game stats suck.
Zambrano last 7 starts against Fla have been W/O.
Both teams hitting really well against righties right now.
I see a 5-4 or 6-4 Cubs win.







Posted Thursday, July 14, 2011 11:46 AM

Vargas at Home

Anyone noticed that Vargas at home has been just sick.
Last 6 games at home he has pitched a shutout in 4 of them.
In 3 of them he went 9 innings in the other he went 7.
The other 2 he gave up 5 in 7 innings and 6 in 3 innings to the yanks.

Texas tonight has the batting power the yanks do.  So does Vargas shut them down or get lit up?




Posted Thursday, July 14, 2011 11:32 AM

THURS PICK - +6.35 units

YTD 22-17-1  +6.35 units
Mil/Col O8.5  -107  2 unitsGallardo/UbaldoHitters averaging above .300 against opposing pitcher.Back at home for Colorado where O/U is 26-17Ryan Braun should be back in the lineup.Gallardo away has 4.69 ERA and has allowed 9 of his 13 hr's in 9 starts.  Much worse on the road than at home.  Over is 7-2 away.Ubaldo at home is 6.24 ERA and has allowed 7 of his 8 hr's in 9 starts.  Much worse at home than on the road.  Over is 6-2 home.Mil Over is 8-2 last 10.None of Gallardo starts against Colorado have gone under.Both starts for Ubaldo at home against the brewers have gone over.Gallardo tends to go good game bad game good game bad game..last game was good... and he also pitched 123 pitches.
NYY/Tor  O9.5  -104Colon/ReyesFirst off JoJo blows.  Yanks have been hitting lefties at .271 recently which is much better than against righties.Toronto over at home is 24-17.  Toronto bats hitting really well last 10 at .283 and .296 against righties.I think JoJo gives up 6 in 5 innings tonight.  Was going to play Yanks ML and RL but it's possible the Jays score 4-5 runs as well so just over for me.








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Posted Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:15 PM

Under backers so damn lucky

Pence throws a perfect ball home to get Bautista out.
Walden grabs a ball with his bare hand to throw out Castro.
That's 2+ runs that could and should have scored.




Posted Tuesday, July 12, 2011 12:36 PM

Is the roof open or closed for the ASG?

Billdogg found a link stating that Dale Scott is the home plate ump which is great for us over backers.

Does anyone have a link if the roof will be open at all during the game?




Posted Sunday, July 10, 2011 12:00 PM

SUNDAY PICKS YTD 15-9-1 +7.42 units

TOR/CLE U9.5 -159Waiting for more betting to come in on the over before I play it though.  Over 70% of wagers are on the over.  Toronto has never faced Carrasco and neither has any Tor player.  Cecil has been consistent in giving up 3-5 runs per outing but against Clev he dominates.  They are hitting 9 for 63 or .143 against him.  4 of those hits coming from Asdrubal.  They have a meager 2 rbi.  Interesting as well is that between these 2 teams the total of 9 hits like 50% of games.Carrasco gave up 6 last game and hopefully he bounces back like he did when he gave up 6 to texas for a shutout.
TB/NYY O7 -134Shields and CC both great pitchers.  Both being playing well last 3 and good during day and home/away stats.CC gets ridiculous run support 6.95.  Over is 14-5 for him.  5 starters today have really good numbers against him.  Average just over .300.  Those 5 guys have 20 rbi in 100 AB against CC.  If each get 4 AB today then average should be 4 runs scored.Granderson blows against shields .086 but Jeter Posada Cano are all over .300.Shields totals have hit 7 or more in 8 of his last 10 against the yankees.  At ny it is 4-0.  
OAK/TEX  Tex RL & TT O4.5Cahill has been ridiculously good vs Tex but how do I not go with the team that is just on fire.  Would have played O9 but Oak is .197 vs lefties the last 10 games.  They cannot hit lefties.  Tex is .339 against righties. &nb... [More]

Posted Saturday, July 09, 2011 01:07 PM

Sat picks +3.74 units

7-4-1   +3.74 units
Just gonna post my first play for the early game.
TB/NYY O8.5 -108  
I really see this game as a 5-4 game.  Looked at batting averages for players against the opposing pitchers and nothing impressed me except for Cano and Longoria.  Upton blows against Burnett.  Posada blows against Price.  
Price away stats and Burnett home stats are worse than their overall and close to 4 ERA each.   Both pitchers give up crazy stolen bases for day games.
But the biggest reason I am taking over is because for TT wagering the lines were TB TT O4 -120  NYY TT O4 -120.This tells me Vegas thinks both teams will get 4 each.  



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Posted Friday, July 08, 2011 12:02 PM

First day of picks with reasons

YTD 0-0  0 units
ATL ML  +155ATL O6.5 -122NYY U9.5 -130TEX U8.5 -111MIN TT O3.5 -110  2unitsMIN O8.5 -105DET O9.5 -106DET ML -108MIL O8 -111STL O7.5 -115LAD U6.5 +107LAA U7 -103SF U6.5 +107
Each 1 unit unless otherwise stated and yes I know I play too many games.
Atl & over 6.5 - Atl have been hitting bats well.  Only once in the past 10 games have they scored under 4 runs and that time they scored 3.  They also have good stats against Doc.  7 of Doc's last games have gone over.  I see this game either 4-3 or 5-3 and hopefully for Atl but if not I push.
NYY U9.5 - the only batter who has substantial AB's against opp pitcher is Damon who is out.  Both pitchers are pitching great right now and hopefully will continue that trend.  I see 8 in this game but bought the half in case it goes 4-4.
Tex U8.5 - 2 good under pitchers and spirits will be down in texas.  Many players will be unmotivated to play.  Hamilton is out.  RIP Shannon Stone.
MIN O8.5 & TT O3.5 - Blackburn and Floyd have been getting spanked recently.  Both teams have seen these pitchers considerably and have hit them well.  Expect a high scoring affair.  Min has averaged over 6 runs in the past 7 games.  The last 8 games Floyd has pitched against Min the Twins have scored at least 4 runs in that game.  
DET & O9.5 - Davies stinks.  Det has lit him up in the past.  Porcello in a bit of ... [More]

Posted Thursday, July 07, 2011 10:30 AM

Helton, Tulo, Gonzalez...all out??

Who is going to get any runs for Colorado.  Are they conceding this game before it starts?

I know Nicasio gets tons of run support but I looked up his last 6 starts and in those game 17 of 37 runs were by the big 3 above and 17 of 36 rbi were by them as well.  Half of his run support are by these guys.

Nicasio away ERA is 7.47.  He has given up 20 hits and 13 runs in just under 16 innings and has a .353 OBP.

Just looked and McCann and Hinske are out.  Levels the output just a bit.







Posted Monday, July 04, 2011 04:02 PM

Too many people in here don't understand

It's supposed to be a forum to help all of us beat the books!

Not ego's to be better than someone else in here.

There is no need to bash anyone in here for their picks.

It's all about us beating them not us beating us.

Please remember that..



Posted Saturday, June 11, 2011 08:38 PM

Anyone notice how often..

Anyone notice how often the infielders are attempting to turn a double play that they are no longer touching second base when catching the ball before throwing it to first.

Just happened in the TB/Bal game by Andino in the 5th inning.  His back foot was 2 feet off the bag when he caught the ball to try and turn the double play.  I mean it wasn't even close.  I saw it in real time plain as day   then it slow motion it was really bad how early he took his foot off the bag before catching the ball.

I am the only one that noticed?






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