DGlaze91's Blog

Atlanta Braves 2009 write up

By DGlaze91 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, March 05, 2009 11:55 PM   28 comments
Rotation: The Atlanta rotation will not be great, but will be good. Braves have many potential candidates to plug into the rotation, and consistency will be seen throughout the 5 man rotation/no dropoff after #3 starter. Jair Jurrjens was 3rd in ROY voting, and had an overall good season, but he will need to do a little more to establish himself as the ace of this rotation. The offseason moves to get Lowe and Vaszquez were good moves. Lowe is a solid veteran who, throughout his career has consistenly kept his ERA below 4 and has won 15+ games. Although 35, I don't see him to lose much of his stuff this season; he has had a great last few seasons with LA and Boston, and a move to a pitcher-friendly ballpark will help. Vaszquez is a strikeout machine; he had over 200 K's last season. Expect him to have as many this season, moving to a more pitcher friendly National League. If he can keep his ERA down, he will be a solid top 2 starter on this rotation. Kawakami and Campillo/Glavine will likely fill out the rotation. Not much is known about Kawakami, but he supposedly was dominant in the Japanese Leagues. We all know that the MLB is a whole new game, and he won't necessarily have as good numbers as he did in Asia. However, I do expect him to provide decent stats and win 10+ games, as well as below a 4.2-3 ERA for this team. Campillo was great for Atlanta in the first half of the season, but as he become more known, and hitters picked up on his stuff, his stats diminished in the last couple months of the year. However, I don't think every hitter will escape the nasty changeup he has. He will pitch solid innings for the Braves, whether it be as a starter or reliever. Glavine's a HOFer, but he's obviously lost most of his dominance during his prime years. He's not going to be the same pitcher as he was during his 2 Cy Young and 10 All-Star years, he will be a decent pitcher and contribute to this team, as long as he stays healthy. Look for Tim Hudson to play a small role down the stretch as he will return in August from Tommy John surgery
 
Bullpen: Atlanta's bullpen was bad last year, being among the league leaders in blown saves and runs earned. This is in a large part due to injuries. The Braves rotation this year, however will be much better. Mike Gonzalez has probably established himself as the closer of this team. He was out for alot of 07 and 08, but he is finally back to full health since recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will be a very good closer this season; he has some of the nastiest stuff, and his K/9 ratio is among the league leaders. Peter Moylan, before elbow surgery last season, was arguably the best multi-inning middle reliever in baseball, in my opinion. If healthy, he will return to his role this season and play a very large role for this team down the stretch. Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, and Raphael Soriano are solid late-inning relievers and will make big contributions to the team. If some of the more minor relievers, like Blaine Boyer and Royce Ring, can step up and have solid seasons, look for this team to have one of the better bullpens in the league.
 
Batting: McCann is the best offensive catcher in baseball, hands down. Expect him to hit .315+ with around 25-30 homers and 90-100 rbi. Chipper is getting old, and injury prone, but thats not hardly going to stop him from hitting at least .320 and be a solid 3 hitter in the lineup. Escobar is a rising star at SS who has pop and will likely hit 20+ HRs and hit around .300. The same can be said about Kelly Johnson and Casey Kotchman, who will hit .280-90 with 20+ home runs. Garrett Anderson is a veteran who has consistenly hit with good average and power. He will provide value for this team and produce when needed. He will likely platoon with Matt Diaz, who has consistently hit with high average in his career. I see him, however, in a more minor role, unless he moves to center. The real question that will determine the destiny of this team is the production of Jeff Francoeur. We saw this kid in his first couple seasons as a sparkplug and potential all-star, but has since dropped off and has not shown discipline at the plate. I cannot defend the kind of season he had last year: he basically imitated Andruw Jones stats (in his last couple seasons in Atlanta) last year, hitting a putrid .230. This year, I believe he dramatically improves (I mean, you can't do much worse than last season). I expect him to bring his average up at least 20-30 points, and be much more disciplined, not swinging at wild, high and outside fastballs, or curveballs in the dirt. He knows what issues he faces, and how he can adjust to become more mature at the plate. He won't have a breakout year, but this season will be a new beginning for him, as I see it.
 
Overall the Braves aren't expected to win the division, and probably won't, but expect them to post a solid record and compete down the stretch. If the Atlanta can avoid the kind of injuries they faced last year, they may have an outside shot at a Wild Card berth, or even possibly a division title, if everything goes right. Right now, however, I see Atlanta competing, but missing the playoffs in the last couple weeks of the season
 
Projected record: 85-77
 
28 comments
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glyde69 says:
03/06/09 01:03AM
DGlaze91 says:
03/06/09 01:30AM
Projected rotation:

 

1. Derek Lowe: 16-9, 3.7 ERA

2. Javier Vazquez: 14-12, 3.9 ERA, 210 Ks

3. Jair Jurrjens: 15-10, 3.8 ERA

4. Kenshin Kawakami: 11-8, 4.1 ERA

5. Tom Glavine: 10-7, 3.8 ERA

 

Projected Lineup:

 

1. Yunel Escobar: .305, 19 HR, 69 RBI

2. Kelly Johnson: .287, 20 HR, 76 RBI

3. Chipper Jones: .322, 18 HR, 80 RBI

4. Brian McCann: .317, 27 HR, 96 RBI

5. Casey Kotchman: .279, 21 HR, 82 RBI

6. Garret Anderson: .276, 14 HR, 59 RBI

    Matt Diaz: .287, 9 HR, 48 RBI

7. Jeff Francoeur: .263, 18 HR, 77 RBI

8. Josh Anderson: .274, 7 HR, 56 RBI

9. Pitcher

 

 

boberts427 says:
03/06/09 01:49AM
ATL should be a + money team for the year
arsenal588 says:
03/06/09 02:33AM
Now I understand why you took Boston Under 95 wins. You feel biased/confident enough to think Atlanta wins 85 games in a division where they are a DISTANT 4th, but Boston only gets 90 in a division where they've been near the top the past few years?? You're in for a real long season, no one even wanted to go play in Atl this year.
johnnymo says:
03/06/09 08:43AM
Two words - Tommy Hanson!
davisz says:
03/06/09 10:40AM
Arsenal588: Despite his bias, he seem to struck a nerve with you when he says the BoSox will under achieve. High hopes? Maybe. But the Braves are in it every year just about, so I expect this season to be the same.

Also, they are clearly not a "distant 4th". I would say they are a close 2nd, at worst.

DGlaze91 says:
03/06/09 07:07PM

Get real, dude. Your putting your own damn bias into this. Boston didn't have a productive offseason, and did nothing for themselves to help their case for '09. I know Boston will be good, and should make the playoffs, but getting 95 wins with no Manny and a not great rotation is out of reach considering they play in the toughest division in baseball..This is a Braves preview thread, not a bash the thread poster because I didnt like his prediction thread. Take your trash out of here

DGlaze91 says:
03/06/09 07:10PM
Oh, and "distant 4th"?? Your crazy. Maybe if your looking at last years' final standings. In case you didn't know, Florida traded away 2 of their most talented young players, Mike Jacobs, and Scott Olson. They have little talent after Hanley Ramirez. The Braves will surpass them this year with ease
myerlansky says:
03/06/09 07:38PM
Personally I think the Braves come in 4th in the NL East (78-84)
GameHunter says:
03/06/09 08:27PM


I respect your write up and opinion and appreciate your insight but disagree with your insight on the Marlins, particularly if you think Mike Jacobs and Scott Olson were two of their most talented players. Mike Jacob is mediocre at best. Yes, a novice will look at the fact that he hit 32 HR's and drove in 93 runs but outside of those two stats, he doesn't even deserve to be a major leaguer. To begin with, he is possible the worst fielding first baseman in baseball. Offensively he had greater than a 3:1 K:BB ratio for the second year in a row and had a horrendous .247 average and pathetic .299 OBP last year. In addition, he can't hit left handed pitching (.218 last season). At best he is a decent platoon player in the American League, where he belongs at DH. The Fish have a solid prospect in Gaby Sanchez who can easily replace Jacobs at first.

Scott Olson is a decent pitcher but far from a star. His strikeout rate declined for the 3rd straight year and he has lost 3 mph on his fastball. He was aided last season by an incredible BABIP of .262 so when you consider the season before his BABIP was .354, he is a serious contender for major regression this season. He was also the recipinet of outstanding defensive support from a mediocre defensive team as his DERA was almost a run higher than his ERA. He will be decent for the Nats, but he is far from a star. Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad are much better young prospects than the hot headed Olson.

The Fish also have a young stud in Cameron Maybin in the OF, who is one of the top prospects in the NL. With Dan Uggla, Ramirez, Cantu, Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida, the Fish have a offense. Matt Lindstrom, Leo Nunez, Jose Ceda and others can give them a decent pen also so the Fish definitely cannot be dismissed this season.
suedon70 says:
03/06/09 08:39PM
Liked the write-up!

 

I'm a Braves fan, and I hope they bounce back and have a good season....plus keep their rotation healthy....

DGlaze91 says:
03/06/09 08:57PM

I completely respect your opinion and write up of Florida and thank you for your insight, and I never said Florida would be a bad team this season. I disagree, however, with your analysis of jacobs and Olson. Jacobs, having 20+ HRs and 90+ RBI is a solid season in my opinion. His statistics are very similar to those of Ryan Howard, who hits for power, but strikes out all the time and hits for low average. He was the power source for Florida last year, and his absence will leave a big hole in the middle of the order for Florida.

Olson, at times last season, was dominant. I remember he flirted with a no-no a couple times last year. He was streaky, but he definitely has potential. He would be the definite 3 starter for Florida this season hadn't they traded him.

As for their current roster, no player really sticks out to me other than Hanley, and maybe Nolasco. Their rotation is seriously in question. Johnson is a potential all-star, but he may suffer long-term effects from his Tommy John surgery. After Johnson and Nolasco, it really is a crapshoot. Volstad had a very bad season and, although young and will get better, I don't see this season as his breakout year.

Florida has a ton of kids, like Maybin, that will be good in a couple years; but thats the thing, a couple years. Most of Florida's prospects are 1-2-3 years away from becoming solid major leaguers. Right now, however, they are just kids and are likely to not all break out at the same time.

JONTHYN says:
03/06/09 09:17PM
I think you coulda at least MENTIONED Garrett...I think he'll be a tremendous factor for them this year, definitely won't be sharing time with anyone by 1/4 of the season...maybe with Diaz the first 2 months.
GameHunter says:
03/06/09 09:44PM
DGlaze-

All in good fun and debate.

You say Volstad had a very bad season???? He was 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA. He was outstanding. In 12 of his 14 starts he allowed 3 earned runs or less. he allowed just 3 HR's in 84 innings. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Between the majors and minors the pst two years, he has allowed just 15 HR's in 344 innings. Compare that to Olson who had an ERA of 4.19 with 30 HR's allowed in 201 innings. There is no doubt in my mind I would rather have Volstad.

We completely disagree on Jacobs. Jacobs hit .247 with a .299 OBP%. I am not sure how you can compare that with Howard who has OBP% the last 3 seasons of .425, .392 and .339. In addition, Howard is a respectable glove at 1B and Jacobs is rated as the worst fielding 1B in the majors over the last 3 seasons. Uggla, Cantu and Ross were all much more productive than Jacobs last year. In addition, you are underrating how bad Jacobs glove and range is. He costs the Marlins several games each year and on +/- rating rates a -49 the past 3 seasons, which is atrocious.

I am not saying I love the Marlins, but they could be a surpise this year and I think the loss of Jacobs is a huge blessing and Olson would've been a solid 3rd or 4th starter but Andrew Miller has more upside and could turn out to be a solid replacement.
JONTHYN says:
03/06/09 10:04PM
GameHunter: I'm not tryin to kick off a battle or anything...but it 100% seems like you love the Marlins. In the same way I overvalue lame-ass Padre middle infielders....you seem to be taking the ceiling of A LOT of Marlins...and, honestly, Andrew Miller has ALWAYS been overrated. He seriously reminds me of Brien Taylor in the early 90's....and that's a VERY bad thing.
GameHunter says:
03/06/09 10:13PM


With due respect, I am not overrating the Marlins. I am not even saying they are better than the Braves. I am saying they cannot be dismissed and that Jacobs and Olson are hardly bad losses. I haven't formulated my final opinion on them, but they do have upside. Johnson, Nolasco and Volstad are all solid and their offense has some punch.
DGlaze91 says:
03/06/09 10:18PM
Thanks for those numbers Game. I don't know why I thought Volstad was so bad. From what I saw of him he didn't look that great to me. I also didn't realize the major difference in OBP for Jacobs and Howard. I should have done more research in making my statistical judgments. I however will stand by my opinion that Jacobs and Olson's losses will be felt this season, and that Florida wont be a very good team (at least not as good as the Braves), but I'm not ruling out the possibility that Florida could very well be a decent team and have a .500+ record
JONTHYN says:
03/06/09 10:19PM
I DO agree with that...talent is looming in Florida, and Jacobs WAS gonna be a stud, but the jury's still out on that one...I think the Royals would be better off playing Shealy at first, but I'm just a scrub....so...

I can't concede with Olsen though, I think the kid had that pure talent that BELONGS in Florida. If the Marl's are gonna lean on young pitching, why not stack it up 80ft high and increase your chances you'll pull a few aces outta there? know what I mean?

GameHunter says:
03/06/09 10:40PM


In my opinion, Jacobs is not much better than a replacement player. I

rather have a player who hits .270 with a .358 OBP and 15 HR and 69

RBI's. like Lyle Overbay ten times before I'd touch Jacobs.


I think Olson is decent and a solid 3rd or 4th starter but he is

replaceable...but it comes down to one fact...the Marlins were having a

fire sale to dump payroll. 

arsenal588 says:
03/07/09 01:07AM
I'm not trying to bash your thread but obviously you took the time to seriously preview the Braves this year and no doubt I respect that- lots of good points and insight, but I just think it's more of an optimism than a real possibility.  Also, I have no bias being a Red Sox fan because I am highly critical of any weak link on their team, i.e. LUGO, man, he is just inept at the plate most of the time. But I mean, once again, you are saying that Jacobs and Olson are going to be the downfall of a Marlins team who gets rid of stars all the time, they seemed to do OK without Cabrera last year and he was more valuable than Jacobs and Olson combined.
JONTHYN says:
03/08/09 02:47AM

Ahhhhh! Now THERE'S a damn good point, I hadn't even thought of that. If they got by ok without Cabrera, they should have ZERO troubles without Jacobs. Props to ya arsenal

PossumJenkins says:
03/08/09 06:26AM
Good dialogue here - nice write-up, Glaze.  The Greek has Atlanta's total wins set at 83 1/2 (with the 10 cent juice on the over and under) - I'm not saying they have a 180 degree turnaround year from last year, but I do like the Over on that total. 

 

Great discussion, none-the-less

DGlaze91 says:
03/08/09 03:01PM

dude, you must not have fully read my write-up. This is what I said about him:

"Garrett Anderson is a veteran who has consistenly hit with good average and power. He will provide value for this team and produce when needed."

DGlaze91 says:
03/08/09 03:03PM

thank you, sir.  I agree Atlanta won't have a Rays type turnaround season but will definitely improve from last year.

gjoey823 says:
03/08/09 03:16PM

 

you are crazy... we are so happy to get rid of olson and jacobs... olson is a head case and average at best... why do you think they traded him within the division? maybe because they don't mind facing him one bit... omg and jacobs is a horid defensive player that bats .250... guys like that aren't going to get you in the playoffs... cantu will take his place.. he's much better... braves will finish in either 4th or 5th

 

DGlaze91 says:
03/08/09 07:15PM

 

dude your crazy!! so you mean to tell me Atlanta could finish BEHIND the Nationals? That's a joke. Give me a plausible and unbiased explanation as to why you believe Atlanta will finish behind the Marlins AND Nationals..

And where have you been this offseason? Florida did absolutely nothing to improve their team, whereas the Braves got 3 solid players that will make big contributions to the team.

Philly215 says:
03/08/09 08:20PM
All I know is the Phillies owned the Braves last year, look for more of the same this year. And the Marlins also traded away their closer, Gregg, but I think they will be at about the same level of competitivness as they were last year in the league. For me its between the Phillies and Mets for first, Marlins and Braves will battle for 3rd with the Nats in last again.
pucku27 says:
03/09/09 12:06AM
LETS GOOOOOOOOO    BRAVES  
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