DJFritsch's Blog

DJF NFL Week 13 Picks + Indy/Det mini-write-up

By DJFritsch | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, December 01, 2012 04:16 PM   2 comments
As always, you can find me on Twitter @DJFritsch and my brief picks podcast can be heard at djfritsch.com.

Last week was literally the worst betting week I’ve ever had.  I was especially crushed by the Tennessee pick over Jacksonville that I specifically wrote about here on Covers.  I’m making far fewer plays this week, and those are listed below one of my favorite plays of the week, Indianapolis getting 6.5 points at Detroit:  

- Detroit’s coming off crushing emotional losses to both Green Bay and Houston, the latter of which basically saw their playoff hopes snuffed out, whereas Indy’s in the thick of the AFC playoff race, having won 5 of their last 6.  Detroit also has to face Green Bay again next week, so there’s also some look-ahead potential.  Detroit is already one of the most undisciplined teams in the league, so with these factors in play, I expect more than a couple bonehead plays from them on Sunday.

- Indy’s defense, while banged up, has been doing a good job of bending-but-not-breaking in recent weeks: excluding the bloodbath at New England two weeks ago, they‘ve given up less than 14 points a game over their last 5.  I don’t expect them to hold Detroit’s offense to 14, but I don’t see them being overwhelmed, either.

Seahawks +3.5 (2 units)
6-pt teaser: Jets +1, Under 43 (1 unit)
Colts +6.5 (1 unit)
6-pt teaser: Jaguars +12, over 38 (1 unit)
Buccaneers +7.5 (1 unit)
6-pt teaser: Ravens -1, over 29 (1 unit)
2 comments
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DJFritsch says:
12/01/12 06:34PM


Oh, I agree to an extent.  I think there's a perception that Indy's is one of the worst defenses in the league, and my point above was that I don't necessarily think Detroit will just roll over them at will.
BJaRz says:
12/01/12 09:47PM

Perception or reality?

1.4% INT rate - Rank 32
5.9% Sack rate - Rank 20
0.2% Fumble rate - Rank 31
4.8 yd/run - Rank 29
62.5% passer completion - Rank 18
7.8 net yd/pass - Rank 27
5.9 yd/play - Rank 25

All with a SOS of 28.

When adjusted for strength of schedule:
#21 ranked yd/point
#30 ranked yd/play
#30 ranked net yd/pass
#28 ranked yd/run
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