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**THURSDAY'S LARGE WAGER & WRITEUP**

By DaExpert | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 15, 2009 09:51 AM   62 comments
1-1 YTD
 
Last Night Tulsa +10 Winner
 
Tonight:
 
Cincinnati has started off the year on fire!! 5-0 and literally dominating every game this team has played in. They get the job done behind the # 6 Passing attack. Tony Pike has been unreal this year throwng for 1492 yards and 13 TD's. What is so great about him is that he is extremely accurate completing 67.1% of his passes. Mardy Gilyard has been his main target and for good reason this guy is awesome!! This guy has 9 total td's on the year tied for 4th in the nation in scoring. He avgs 8 rec per game and has 166.6 yds all purpose. People there is no stopping this guy. Especially when Pike has all day to throw behind a line that ranks 4th in the nation in protecting the QB. Guys there isnt a team in CFB that can stop this potent passing attack. On Defense is where Cincy has suprised alot of people this year!! Despite returning only 1 starter this defense has been stout. They are #1 in the nation in sacks and tackles for a loss at 4.2 per game and 10 per game. Total yardage wise they rank 37th giving up 307 yds on avg. Another impressive stat about Cincy's is how they ranked 3rd in the nation with a turnover margn of 1.60
 
South Florida comes into this game on a high. They are 5-0 beating FSU and Syracuse along the way. Their offense has got the job done behind a solid running game. Star QB Matt Grothe was knocked for the year three games ago but Frosh QB BJ Daniels has picked up where he left off.  Daniels has thrown for 602 yds and 6 td's. He also has made plays on the ground leading the Bullls with 291 yds and 3 TDs. Daniels has shown in a couple games this year that he can get the job done. On Defense is where South Florida is most impressive. dominating weaker oppositon by creating turnovers. Last week they forced Syracuse into throwing 5 ints and forced 2 fumbles despite being outgained. Against FSU they forced 4 TO's by way of fumble en route to 17-7 vctory. So you see the Bulls defense is very opportunistic and that is why they have been so successful.
 
Tonight however for the BJ Daniels and the Bulls is where the fairy tale ends! South Florida has yet to see an offense as efficient as the Bearcats'. Tony Pike and Mr. Gilyard are gonna have a field day. Mike Williams last week for Syracuse caught 13 passes for 186 yds and two touchdowns and Bert Reed for FSU had similar success, tonight I expect Gilyard to do the same. If you dont turnover the ball against South Florida you can move the football which was proven by Ponder and Paulus. Both throwing for over 250 yds against this defense. On offense for South Florida BJ Daniels is gonna have his hands full. The Bearcats are gonna bring the heat and I dont think Daniels in his first Primetime game is up for the challenge. I see him getting sacked alot tonight by the nations #1 pass rush and turning over the football en route to a frustrating evening.
 
People dont overthink this one the Bearcats have proven themselves this year and they should win this one tonight on the road by a large margin. Tony Pike is way too accurate to turnover the football and USF Freshman QB BJ Daniels is gonna have his hands full with this Cincinnati pressure D. I'm going with the Bearcats tonight and I'm going with em LARGE.
 
Cincinnati -1.5------------LARGE
 
 
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Jayw23 says:
10/15/09 09:54AM
The reason Ponder and Paulus were able to put up those stats were because the S Fla defense shut down the run and made them 1 dimensional.  Also they both were playing from behind most of the game.  BOL with your pick
allboutmoney says:
10/15/09 09:55AM
GL -
D-Town says:
10/15/09 10:01AM
DWinner says:
10/15/09 10:03AM
I really like Cincy.  This is my GOY.  I will be playing this large as well.  GLTA.

 

STREET_SMART says:
10/15/09 10:05AM
youramoron says:
10/15/09 10:23AM
You are spot on...Cinn is the play but people you better grab it quick the line is moving up as we speak...

 

Good luck expert and nice write up.....

dolphins72 says:
10/15/09 10:32AM

I agree Jayw23!

It needs to be pointed out why something happened, not just that it happened. Syracuse was playing catchup and had no choice but to throw all-day. That will always mean somebody is going to have more yards than they typically would.

291 yards rushing by the QB in 3 games has got Cincy trying to play the entire field on def. Home field is above average for the Bulls. The Bulls have plenty of their own weapons on off. in this game as well.

The fans will be storming the field when the clock stops ticking!

Taking USF on the ml +115.

GL all!

 

 

 

Crodies73 says:
10/15/09 10:42AM
Not for nothing but my local has it at .5 for -115. something isn't right.
puamaeole says:
10/15/09 10:51AM
Morning my Hawaiian Bradahs and Sistas!

Taking Cincinnati to night also but on a two team teaser(Bodog Sports).

Teased 7.0 points on the game +4 @ game/Over 42 total points (-130/100)

Good Luck Everyone!

mrmo says:
10/15/09 10:52AM
dolphins72 says:
10/15/09 11:03AM

Right!!!

You make a great post "but" you leave out a lot of info. Your post is usually biased on your play. That's cool if you want to mis-lead people that don't know any better.

No reason to get pissy just cause I filled in a couple of blanks for you. I think you have a real shot with Cincy. So happens I disagree with your choice and will take the USF ml +115 and maybe throw in a 7 point teaser USF +9.5 & under 55 1/2

gamblinfool says:
10/15/09 11:45AM
  GL EX.
kittsd says:
10/15/09 11:47AM
With you on CIN  
Supreme808 says:
10/15/09 11:48AM
This write up could be considered biased, but i think its just reasoning for his play.  Im gonna have to agree on expert on tonites game.  Cincy pulls away in third to win by double digit.  The only way i see Cincy losing, is by turnovers leading to scores for USF.  USF has yet to play a high offensive team like Cincy.  The bearcats are averaging 42 points a game and only allowing 14 points with a tougher SOS then USF.
imthatguy says:
10/15/09 11:55AM
with u expert. gl
BigEarl says:
10/15/09 12:01PM

So... Vegas is trying to trick everyone that pays attention to the spread?  And you are on to the scheme?  So those of us that catch fishy line movement have been set up this entire time by the line setters?  And they are cashing in on it tonight!  Thanks for the brilliant insight! 

BigEarl says:
10/15/09 12:02PM
DUH expert.
darnbuckeyes says:
10/15/09 12:04PM
bol
BigEarl says:
10/15/09 12:06PM
You might as well say "Dont pay attention to anything that does not support my pick." 

 

Like Rick Pitino... "Everything else that hear besides what I say is a lie".

 

Jayslevel says:
10/15/09 12:21PM
ALSO going large on CINNy

 

nice write up daexpert 

 

THE_EMPIRE says:
10/15/09 12:34PM
 Cinci

DaExpert

Johnnynumbers says:
10/15/09 12:47PM
Should be a great game...
phancard says:
10/15/09 02:34PM
I am with ya in this one, Cinci Rolls  .. I like Pike !!!

here are some trends



Thats all we need to know
phancard says:
10/15/09 02:35PM
Under as well 48.5 BOL
joewashington says:
10/15/09 02:58PM

Another point of view might ask how they threw for so many yards in spite of 7 turnovers???....That's 7 drives killed and they still threw for that many yards....

billyloco says:
10/15/09 01:09PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by dolphins72]

Right!!!

You make a great post "but" you leave out a lot of info. Your post is usually biased on your play. That's cool if you want to mis-lead people that don't know any better.

No reason to get pissy just cause I filled in a couple of blanks for you. I think you have a real shot with Cincy. So happens I disagree with your choice and will take the USF ml +115 and maybe throw in a 7 point teaser USF +9.5 & under 55 1/2

[/Quote]great fkn teaser!!!...
dolphins72 says:
10/15/09 02:04PM

Great minds think alike!

dolphins72 says:
10/15/09 05:30PM
Question - Is it true that the Bulls have won 2 straight against top 10 teams and 5 straight against top 25 teams? Also, heard they've never lost when the crowd is over 60k. Somebody smarter than me please answer that question....
gthing25 says:
10/15/09 03:20PM
Just curious.  Your post from the 13th you had a lean toward So. Florida.  Now I see you are on Cincinnati large.  What has happened that has swayed you to the Bearcats.
knucklesisalive says:
10/15/09 03:04PM
with you on CINCY....GL
yankees2k6 says:
10/15/09 05:18PM
yosemitesam says:
10/15/09 01:09PM

ESPN INSIDER

Scouts' Edge

Cincinnati offense vs. South Florida defense

• QB Tony Pike continues to lead the Bearcats' spread attack by making sound decisions, and Pike is doing a good job of getting the ball out quickly and spreading it around to multiple receivers. That has taken a lot of pressure off the offensive line on passing downs. South Florida's challenge will be taking away as many quick-hitting throws as possible, forcing Pike to hold the ball longer than he would like and giving its disruptive defensive line more time to get to Pike.

• A review of the past two weeks of film suggests the Bearcats' offensive line has some vulnerability in protection, especially at the tackle position. This unit has surrendered only three sacks all season, but a lot of the credit belongs to Pike, whose quick decision making and underrated pocket mobility has prevented several would-be sacks. However, this problem could be exposed on Saturday because LT Jeff Linkenbach and RT Sam Griffin both struggle with speed off the edge and are going to have their hands full preventing a pair of explosive and athletic defensive ends in George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul from turning the corner.

• Part of Pike's success this season has been due to a strong group of receiving threats on the outside, led by WR Mardy Gilyard. This unit has done a good job of reading defenses on the fly, finding the open area and executing their hot reads when necessary. In addition, TE Ben Guidugli has developed into a solid receiving threat working the middle of the field. However, this unit is going to have to work extra hard Thursday night to find separation working against a stingy and quick Bulls secondary. CB Jerome Murphy displays excellent quickness and burst, so he will line up across from Gilyard as much as possible. In addition, FS Nate Allen possesses strong instincts and a wide range when roaming the middle of the field. Pike must be sure to keep tabs on him, especially when looking late between the hashes.

Key individual matchup

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike
vs.
South Florida FS Nate Allen

Pike has made excellent decisions throughout the season, throwing 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. However, he must be extra careful with his decisions down the middle of the field this week and be sure to look off Allen when he is aligned at the point of the defense. Allen does a tremendous job of reading quarterbacks' eyes and getting a quick break on the ball. Pike has also shown excellent poise in the pocket and does a good job of rush avoiding, but he must be sure to keep tabs on Allen when buying more time. Allen is extremely instinctive and disciplined in coverage, and he possesses the ball skills to make Pike pay on any late throws down the middle of the field.

South Florida defense vs. Cincinnati defense

• QB B.J. Daniels has stepped in nicely to replace Matt Grothe, who was lost for the year after suffering an ACL tear in Week 3. Daniels is more athletic than Grothe and a better runner, which has made the Bulls' rushing attack more dynamic. Offensive coordinator Mike Canales is doing a nice job of mixing up different runs by using dives to RBs Mike Ford and Moise Plancher or zone-read plays from the gun, and even sprinkling in the speed option with Daniels. In addition, the Bulls' offensive line is getting off the ball quickly and covering up defenders. Cincinnati's defense has been stingy defending the run, but will be tested both mentally and physically this week -- especially at the linebacker position. This unit will need to be patient reading their keys and be sure not to get caught out of position.

• Up front, the Bulls' offensive line has been up to par in protection. They have shown good communication, which has allowed them to play as a cohesive unit. This is a positive sign heading into Thursday night because they will be facing an aggressive Bearcats pass rush. Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is doing a nice job of masking who the fourth and fifth rushers are from their 3-4 front and OLB Walter Stewart has the speed and quickness to test LT Jeremiah Warren or RT Jacob Sims. However, the Bulls' front line will need to turn in their best showing to date to have success keeping Cincinnati out of the backfield and disrupting Daniels.

• When the Bearcats do dial up pressures, they must come under control and maintain gap integrity when doing so. If they fail to keep contain -- especially on the outside -- it will play right into Daniels' hands as a dual-threat quarterback. Daniels excels at breaking contain and creating with his feet to either buy more time or pick up yards by tucking and running. In addition, if Daniels is able to get on the perimeter it does not bode well for Cincinnati's secondary, which is going to have a tough time matching up and limiting separation from WR Carlton Mitchell, who possesses a rare combination of size and top-end speed.

Scouts' Edge

Cincinnati will be entering a hostile environment Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, which will play a big factor in the game's outcome. The Bulls have the personnel on defense to slow the Bearcats' high-powered attack. Their pass rush will keep Pike under pressure and their secondary has enough playmakers to cash in on any passes thrown up for grabs. However, Daniels' athleticism will give the Bulls' offense enough big-play opportunities -- both on the ground and through the air -- to pull off the home upset.

Prediction: Bulls 35, Bearcats 30

 

HOPE THIS HELPS YOU GUYS WITH A BETTER DECISION

GOOD LUCK WHICH EVER WAY YOU GO!

yosemitesam says:
10/15/09 01:31PM
I don't agree with it either, I am playing the UNDER.

 

Game will be in low 20s for the winner.

 

24-20 or 24-17..something like that...don't know which way to lean on SIDE yet..i dont see how Cinci just scores at will here or USF scores at will on Cinci..i am hoping for PUNTING and FIELD POSITION...but TURNOVERS will be EVIDENT! I see USF has been racking them up..i hope they keep getting them on Cinci in their red zone

dixonbets says:
10/15/09 05:19PM
I have to agree with ya on Cincy.  Also my largest wager of the year.  Thinking of adding more after your write up
kimats says:
10/15/09 03:14PM
nice write up!

    G.L- EX

       

kaplan says:
10/15/09 01:38PM
1. Syracuse                        79

2. Fla. State                      108

3. Western Kentucky         120

4. Wofford                         1AA

5. Charleston Southern       1AA

 

These are the defenses that USF has faced so far. Notice that Syracuse is the highest ranked.

 

lonetreejj says:
10/15/09 05:17PM

well you had me there until the part about drivin off the Pier into the "Ocean"......  everybody knows that its the gulf on that side.

I mean the homosexual love triangle with the gambler, the star player and the coach.... the payoff....  all very believable. 

But I do agree that USF will get the W.  

 

 

 

BULLDAWGZUS says:
10/15/09 02:57PM
What you all left out.  South Florida - Thursday night.  Wow.  Everyone on Cinci? 

 

Inside info.  Cincy flew in last early last night and hit the Tampa scene.  The lights, the glam.  Word on the street is several of them could be seen boozing it up at the Green Iguana with a certain former Cincinnati native.  A one Charlie Hustle.  Hmmm.  A little 'Fishy' indeed.

 

Now, I don't know if my source is overexagerating the exact order of events, but word is Gilyard could be seen taking body shots off old man Rose's hairy chest.  Hmmm...Fishy.

 

Well, this all sounded 'fishy' too me also, so I made a few calls.  Come to find out, they WERE at the Green iguana last night.  But, that's not the kicker.  Afterwards, the all headed to the Pier in St Pete and dove off the top rail into the freezing ocean.  Now, luckily, everyone was accouted for.  HOWEVER, my source(who I can not name).  Said a few of the core players for Cincy came up with a bad throat cold this morning. 

 

Now, as if that wasn't enough.  After the body shot experience in which the players left and went to the pier.  Old cincy native Charlie Hustle was scene speeding off due west.  My source, followed him until he arrived at the Tampa Holiday Inn express.  Pete quickly hopped out of the 97 VW Jetta and took the elevator to the 7th floor.  My source, who once again I cannot name, stated he too took the elevator and stepped out onto the same floor as Pete.  My source turned left while Pete turned right.  Hiding around the corner, my source peeked and saw Pete knocking on room 703. 

 

Well, after a moment, he heard Pete talking and then saw him reach into his pocket.  What did he pull out?  Well, my source said it was a wad of bills, at least 2 inches thick.  My source then began stumbling around the corner, attempting to look drunk, until he passed into view of Pete's companion at the door.  Who was it?  Well, none other than Cincy coach Brian Kelly!

 

So, the sickness, the body shots, the PeteRose/BKelly visit.  Hmmm....I say, forget the points....I'll take

 

South Florida -  MONEY LINE!!!!

 

like I say, this is all hear say from a source I can't name

cag787 says:
10/15/09 12:55PM
like the pick! BOL
LetEMride says:
10/15/09 03:39PM
i dont doubt that players went out but its a big game and both teams are undefeated.

the players are young guys, they can party and wake up ready to play some ball.


target_9 says:
10/15/09 04:49PM
GL tonight!!!!
jmilrod says:
10/15/09 02:20PM
Cincy's gonna roll

 

 

CINCY USF

pele_187 says:
10/15/09 05:57PM
Cincy needs this more than the Big East needs someone to represent that conference.  With Cincy -3
lightsout2184 says:
10/15/09 03:46PM

 

how are people quick to jump on the dawg when 56 percent of the money is on cinci ml and 80 percent of the spread money is on cinci. initially the majority of the money on the ml was on south florida but as the general public keeps betting its swung way towards cinci. if vegas wanted even money and to collect the juice they would have set this game at like -5. obviously this line was set way too low. ur right the nebraska game is very similar but the money was a lot more even compared to this game. bol

unless changed my plays tonight are south florida 2 units under in the game parlayed with the under in the dodgers game 1 unit

lightsout2184 says:
10/15/09 03:14PM

i have a feeling cinci is gonna get upset. my heart wants to bet on cinci but once researching it and watching the line i might have to go with south florida. Bj Daniels is legit. he is a dual threat qb and was ranked number 8 for qbs in his recruiting class. cincis defensive cordinator last year is now south floridas. he knows cincis offense like the back of his hand.

 

I took tulsa with u last night parlayed it with the under. but bol tonight.

sinochpum says:
10/15/09 05:23PM
yesterday i was on tulsa too.. and today im with you on cinn. but dammit my book got it at -2. but ill take that cause i can see cincy winning by a td.
madrice1 says:
10/15/09 05:44PM
ebbottom says:
10/15/09 03:41PM
no one should be betting large on this game unless they need the money tomorrow......BOL anyway i got cincy -2
LBCWeasie says:
10/15/09 03:08PM
gbjork50 says:
10/15/09 01:01PM
good luck...still on the fence with this one
DOVJAK says:
10/15/09 12:52PM
mojo10 says:
10/15/09 02:14PM
Havent heard anyone talk about weather. Saw 30% chance of rain. Anyone in south Tampa? I'm on cincy & think some rain would actually help. USF corners would be 2 steps behind instead of just one
mojo10 says:
10/15/09 02:03PM

 

jrhdgolf9 says:
10/15/09 02:30PM
Bearcats roll tonight, Gilyard has his homeboys on the way over now, Bulls will hang tough early but turnovers will kill them late.

 

Cincy (Big)

peterorgan333 says:
10/15/09 04:03PM
love the pick

on same side

cin.

SportSavant says:
10/15/09 03:51PM
Expert-really good write up for tonight's game.  I would also mention that South Florida has had a pattern the last few years of starting the season really hot, only to have a mid season lapse and finish the season in a disappointing manner.  They have reached very high rankings in each of the last 2 seasons only to fizzle out in the end.  If senior QB Matt Grothe were playing, I would treat them as a live dog in this matchup.  However, the most important bottom line factor for this game tonight is that you simply cannot ask a freshman QB BJ Daniels to lead them to victory and outduel Tony Pike.  The home crowd, their momentum, and their great defense can keep them in this game for a long time, but eventually a very well coached, experienced (offensively), and savvy Bearcat team will prevail.  They will not be able to rely on 5+ turnovers in this contest.

Good points made by both sides, but I gotta say that the weird line movement is a classic case of Vegas mind fu**ing the crap out of people.  I don't think this is the type of game that comes down to 3 points or less.

Good luck to all, whatever your side.
Supreme808 says:
10/15/09 04:21PM
Well whoever wins will by one posession.  Im hoping its CINCY.  So USF if you reading this, "TURNOVER TURNOVER TURNOVER PLEASE"
footballss2009 says:
10/15/09 01:45PM
FLORIDA IS HOT LIKE HELL NOW, WHAT U TALKING ABT GAME WILL BE LOW 20s?
puamaeole says:
10/15/09 04:01PM
has anyone ever played Bodog Live? (Betting on different plays during the game)
scottcovers says:
10/15/09 03:08PM
DAEXPERT

 

Props for last night, couldn't leave a post on your page, gave you props on mine. 

 

 

Local, got to take the USF ML Parlaying it with the under 49.5

 

 

bwolf421 says:
10/15/09 04:23PM
I like Cincinatti in a close one.

 

The key factor in this game is no Matt Grothe, the badass senior QB is out. South Floridas defensive ends will probably disrupt Cincys pasisng game, but i dont think that will be enough. Now lets look at key wins for both teams.

 

South Florida

@ #18 Florida State 17 - 7

@ Syracuse 34 - 20

 

They also have only given up 7 points this season at home, albeit to questionable competition. ( Wofford, Charleston Southern)

 

Cincinatti

@ Rutgers 47 - 15

No other games really stood out for the bearcats.

 

This one should be a good game but i think Bearcats get the win straight up in a nailbiter.

jimmywins1 says:
10/15/09 03:42PM
im with you. watch the freshman choke in a big game
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Team: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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