DENVER +3.5-------------HUGE
As the Chargers' rushing attack flounders (8/16/0 vs. Pittsburgh two weeks ago), Philip Rivers is providing most of the offense for the Chargers - vs. Pittsburgh he threw for 21/36 yielding 254 yards, three TDs and zero interceptions; during week three he tossed 18/33 for 303 yards, zero TDs and zero interceptions vs. Miami. To date, Rivers is 88/150 for 1245 yards, six TDs and three interceptions (he's rushed for 7/15/1 this year). As usual, Antonio Gates leads the team in targets (35) and receptions (24/349/2). Vincent Jackson is the top WR with 29 for 20/373/2; Chris Chambers continues to see balls even though he's not catching many (22 targets for 6/69/1), and Darren Sproles is the reliable receiver out of the back field with 22 targets for 15/197/1 to date.
Denver's pass D is currently fifth in the NFL allowing just 171.8 net passing yards per game, with just two passing TDs given up over five games vs. six interceptions generated. The Broncos are second in the league with 16 sacks to their credit - the Chargers are in the middle of the NFL range with 10 sacks allowed to date. Most recently, the Broncos held Tom Brady to 19/33 for 209 net yards, two TDs and zero interceptions in their 20-17 victory over New England. This team is 5-0 and the defense is a big part of the reason they are undefeated entering week six.
Rivers has been carrying the load for the Chargers this year, but he's got a tough customer to deal with on Monday night when divisional rival Denver comes calling.
Kyle Orton has been one of the pleasant surprises of the year at QB - with 104/165 fir 1236 yards, seven TDs and only one interception thrown. During the last two weeks, Brandon Marshall (17 targets for 12/155/3) has come to the forefront of the attack, while Eddie Royal has regained some touches (21 targets for 12/106/0 during that time span). Jabar Gaffney is also contributing regularly with 12 targets for 7/69/0 during the last two weeks. Orton has posted 35/48 for 330 yards, two TDs and one interception vs. New England last week and 20/29 for 243 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions vs. Dallas over the most recent two games. The Broncos are red-hot entering week six, friends.
The Chargers' pass D handed over 27/34 for 320 net yards, three TDs and generated zero interceptions in their most recent game (vs. Pittsburgh in week four). To date, the team is 12th in the NFL averaging 214.8 net yards allowed per game, with six TDs allowed and four interceptions generated so far this year. They are tied for 27th in the NFL with just six sacks this year, though - overall, the San Diego pass D is mediocre, and they come into this game cold.
Orton and company are on fire and they hold an edge over their divisional rivals this week.
Knowshon Moreno shouldered the load for the Broncos last week (Correll Buckhalter was out with an ankle injury) and Moreno did well in the featured role, with 21/88/0 rushing and 4/36/0 receiving - he went over 100 yards combined on 25 touches of the ball. To date, Moreno has 81/337/1 rushing and 8/69/1 receiving.
The Chargers come into this Monday Night Football game ranked 27th in the NFL averaging 151 rushing yards allowed per game, with six rushing scores handed over during the first four games (they were on bye last week). Pittsburgh hit up the Chargers for 36/177/2 back in week four; Miami posted 31/149/1 rushing against these guys during week three. As you can see, the defensive front is not a team strength for San Diego.
Moreno and company average 4.6 yards per rush and 139 yards per game so far during 2009 - they should equal or better that mark against the soft Chargers this week.
The Chargers have a major problem with their rushing attack. They enter week six averaging 2.7 yards per carry over the first four games played (that's worst in the NFL), and they only manage 53.8 rushing yards per game so far. LaDainian Tomlinson was horrid against the Steelers two weeks ago, crawling to 7/15/0 rushing with 1/-1/0 receiving - Darren Sproles had one catch for 16 yards during the game. Ouch. Tomlinson is currently 68th among all fantasy backs with 20/70/1 rushing and 2/0/0 receiving to his credit. Sproles has been the better option, with 37/90/1 rushing and 15/197/1 receiving. But neither guy has been impressive.
The Broncos held New England's stable of backs to 27/96/0 rushing last week, and held Dallas to 25/74/1 two weeks ago. To date they are sixth in the NFL averaging 81 rushing yards allowed per game, with just two rushing TDs given up so far (during five games played). The Broncos are stout in this phase of the game.
The Chargers' rushing attack is faltering, while the Bronco's rush D is among the league's best. This is a bad matchup for the home team.
Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored in this matchup. San Diego is obviously not the Chargers of years past and Denver will get an easy W in front of national audience.
DENVER-----HUGE!!!!!!!