Season win totals update & Payneful Picks

The Las Vegas Hilton posted season win totals on select college football teams on July 24. Using those numbers, here are this season’s biggest overachievers and the biggest underachievers.

Oklahoma State and Penn State are the only two teams to have eclipsed their season win total at this point. The 9-0 Cowboys went over their projected 8.5 wins with last week’s win over Kansas State The beleaguered Nittany Lions (8-1) went over their projected total of 7.5 by beating Illinois on Nov. 5.

Arkansas (8.5), Southern Cal (7.5), Michigan State (7.5 -120o), Michigan (7 -130o) and Auburn (6 -155o) can go over their total Saturday.

On the other side, Oregon State (6.5, -130u), Texas A&M (8.5 -120u), Florida State (9.5 -130o), West Virginia (9.5 -140u) and Missouri (7.5 -120o) will not reach their season win totals.

Maybe A&M and Mizzou will have better luck in the SEC.
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Overachieving Payneful Picks

Last week: 3-0. Season: a surging 18-11-1.

Army vs. Rutgers
Game will be played at Yankee Stadium, where it’s expected to windy with 25 mph gusts. Rutgers is unstable at quarterback, and so is Army, which will be without starter Trent Steelman for a third straight week. Scarlet Knights lead the nation in red-zone defense.
Pick: Under 49

Auburn ... [More]

Local book on LSU-Bama + Payneful picks

The betting action on LSU-Alabama on the local side of things appears to be mirroring the action in Vegas and offshore.

“The ticket count is higher on LSU but the money is pretty even at this point,” a local bookmaker who works out of Pennsylvania told me Friday.

That’s the story in Las Vegas, too, where the public is in love with LSU to an overwhelming extent, but books are hesitant to drop the spread. Alabama is around a 4.5 to 5-point favorite, with the majority of books on the lower side.

The Pennsylvania bookie was sticking with Tide -4.5 as of Friday as well.

“I anticipate being heavy LSU by kickoff, so I may get down to -4 by tomorrow afternoon, but we’ll see,” he said.

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Depending on the number you got, Stanford improved to 8-0 against the spread with its overtime win against USC.

The Cardinal’s ATS run to the start the season is second only to Kansas in 2007. The Jayhawks covered the spread in their first 10 games and finished 11-1 ATS.

I bet against Stanford last week, but was lucky enough to get +8, as posted here.

I only bring that up because it salvaged an 0-2-1 week in my Payneful Picks. I’d like to do better this week. Help me.

PAYNEFUL PICKS

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