On 3: Major mismatch, Hooters and taking requests

1. If anyone can get a line on Presbyterian-Wake Forest, please bet my farm on the Demon Deacons.

Last year, BetPhoenix.com put up spreads on a few early games involving FCS teams, Ball State vs. New Hampshire, for example. But I don’t see Thursday’s Wake Forest game on the board anywhere. Maybe some North Carolina local will be offering it.

Hopefully, someone can find it, because you can feel good laying 40-plus with the Demon Deacons. Presbyterian is in its fourth and final year of transitioning into the FCS. The Blue Hose (great nickname) went 0-11 last season. This will be their first meeting with an FBS team.

Wake Forest is picked near the bottom of the ACC and has heard about it the entire offseason. They can name the score.
Nothing like locating a lock on a game no bettors can get down on.

If someone does get down on this game, I’d love to know what the number is.

2. I had my fantasy draft at Hooters the other day. I’m not a strip club guy; haven’t been to one in more than 10 years.

I'm not hating on dudes who frequent them, it’s just not my thing. But I’d definitely rather go to a strip club than Hooters. To me, the old dudes sitting around making crude comments about the waitresses at Hooters are the lowest common denominator. They use words like "cans" and "hiney." There were kids (which is another story) just a few booths over. Gross.

I got Drew Brees and Tony Romo in a quarterback-friendly league and it stil... [More]

Middle Tennessee starting QB out against Minnesota

Middle Tennessee starting quarterback Dwight Dasher will miss Thursday's opener against Minnesota amid an investigation of a $1,500 loan he received from an 80-year-old gambler.

Middle Tennessee opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but the line moved all the way to Minnesota -2 at some books.

Dasher allegedly used a check he stole from his roommate to secure the loan from Oliver Donnell, an 80-year-old VA hospital patient, who admits to a running a sports book in the past. BlueRaiders.com has been on top of the story from the beginning.

Dasher took the loan to play poker, lost and reportedly had not paid Donnell back by Aug. 26.

My guess is Donnell called the paper in an attempt to get Dasher to pay him back, not realizing what kind of publicity would occur. Dasher is an NFL prospect, most likely as an athlete than quarterback. He is expected to lead Middle Tennessee to a conference title.

By far, my favorite quote so far: "I don't want anyone prosecuted for any of this," Donnell told BlueRaiders.com. " ... I want that boy (Dasher) to go to the pros. That was an investment in a boy that could be a pro player and get all that money. I know Dwight is good (at playing poker), but I might be better. So I've got an investment in him."  

With Dasher out against Minnesota, the Blue Raiders will be l... [More]

Most overrated handicapping factor in all of sports

Home-field advantage is worth three points to the line.
 
That has to be the dumbest gambling cliché ever.

First of all, home-field advantage is the most overrated handicapping factor in every sport. And especially in college football, where road dogs were the best bet last season, covering 53.82 percent of the time. Overall, home teams-- favored or not--covered only 47.56 percent in 2009. Road teams cover more often than home teams. Period.

Secondly, why would you ever blindly apply a set value for home field? Basically, you’re saying the value of Tulane at home with its eight fans is comparable to a Thursday night game in Blacksburg, where the Hokie crowd might actually cause a few false starts and rattle the quarterback into a couple of game-changing turnovers. Dumb.

ESPN’s gambling writer Chad Millman had an interesting take on the value of home field advantage in his pay-per-view column this week. ESPN the Magazine surveyed 135 current players, asking them how much they believed home field is worth. The results, according to Millman, showed the average value to be 3.8. But the answers were all over the place, ranging from 0 to double-digits.

Millman also broke down what players said home field was worth by conference. The results were surprising and kind of ridiculous. The SEC, unsurprisingly, was No. 1. Home field in the SEC, according to the play... [More]

Vegas: Surprise team garnering sharp action

Sometimes I’ll get off the phone with an oddsmaker or book manager and think, ‘How is that guy beating me? He doesn’t know crap about football.’

Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Vegas, isn’t one of those guys. He knows his stuff. I chatted with Stoneback Thursday and was really surprised when he told me, out of all the season-wins future bets, freaking West Virginia was receiving the most action. Huh?

Stoneback said sharps originally bet over 8.5 wins for the Mountaineers, forcing him to bump it up to 9. “Now, of course, they’re betting the under,” Stoneback said.

To me, West Virginia is a tough team to figure out. They return 19 starters, including nine on defense and superback Noel
Devine. I know very little about their new QB Geno Smith, and the last thing I remember about the ‘Neers is Florida State pounding them in the Gator Bowl.

So what information are these wise guys going on that makes West Virginia such a popular bet? Going by their schedule, WVU has only a four games in which I’d consider them a lock to win: vs. Coastal Carolina, at Marshall, vs. UNLV, at Louisville. To get to nine wins, they’ll have to win five of the following eight games: vs. Maryland, at LSU, vs. South Florida, vs. Syracuse, at UConn, vs. Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh and vs. Rutgers.

They’ll be an underdog at LSU and Pittsburgh and maybe UConn. I doubt they’ll be more than a touchdown favorite against
Maryland, S... [More]

Top 25 preseason poll = instant spread inflation

USA Today’s preseason coaches’ poll was released Friday. That means there are at least a dozen teams that already seriously overrated.
 
The top 10 teams are generally pretty solid, but there have been some top-5 duds recently. Oklahoma, last year, comes to mind. I’m not convinced that even if Sam Bradford had played all season if the Sooners were a top-5 team last year. They ended at 8-5 and unranked.

In 2005, Tennessee and Michigan were preseason No. 3 and 4 respectively. Neither finished ranked. But overall, the top 5 is
generally solid. But you can completely ignore Nos. 15 through 25. The majority of those teams won’t be there in the end.

DP’s initial thoughts on the coaches’ poll
1. Alabama – Won’t win it all.
2. Ohio State – Underrated.
3. Florida – Will lose at least two games in the regular season.
4. Texas – Will run the table in the Big 12.
5. Boise State – Overrated.
6. Virginia Tech – Will beat Boise State.
7. TCU – May go undefeated, but not one of best two teams.
8. Oklahoma – A year away from contending for national title again.   
9. Nebraska – Do not believe in QB Lee. Most overrated team in poll.
10. Iowa – Game of the Year may be Ohio State at Iowa Nov. 20.
11. Oregon – Can’t shake visions of being dominated by Ohio State in Rose Bowl.
12. Wisconsin – Love the Badgers. Big Ten is brutal this year.
13. Miami (Fla.) – Hope they’re not good, but afraid they are.
14. Penn S... [More]

Thanks to Favre, the next 2 days will suck

Get ready to get blasted with Brett Favre retirement coverage, for a third freaking time.

I’m not sure it’s worth it. I’m not sure I can withstand the hour-long specials and the talk-radio debate on whether he’s really done or not. It was boring the first time, way worse the second time and the third will be sheer torture. Even as a Saints fan, I actually think I’d rather have him return, just to put off the agony of the coverage.

Yes, I realize I could just watch something else, but what? It’s August. I feel the urge to rev up for football season with ESPN and NFL Network. Guess what’s on those channels right now: ESPN has a SportsCenter special on Brett Favre, followed by NFL Live. NFL Network is going over a Brett Favre timeline. I’m choosing to watch last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl between Rutgers and Central Florida.

Even if we do survive the barrage of Favre coverage, the annoying rumors of his possible return will be going across the bottom of the ticker for at least the next two seasons. It’s enough to make me drink.

Since we’re going to have to endure the coverage, it seems like we ought to be able to figure out a way to make some money off it. Will projected starter Tavaris Jackson get more snaps in the preseason, adding value to the Vikings? Will Adrian Peterson see more touches, maybe even a Wildcat package? Is there value in betting the overs in the season-win totals for the other NFC North teams?

Touchdown, Rutgers!... [More]

Which conference transfer will win its new league first?

In case you’re just tuning in, Utah is headed to the Pac-10, along with Colorado. Nebraska is going to the Big Ten, and Boise State will join the Mountain West next season.

Boise State, in my opinion, will enter the MWC as the favorite. The Broncos beat MWC champ TCU in last year’s Fiesta Bowl and are poised for another big year. They’ve got 20 starters back this season. 20.  Plus, the Mountain West will take a step back with the loss of Utah. But, with that said, I don’t think the Broncos stroll on in and dominate the league by any means.

The gap between the WAC and the MWC is far wider than the jump from the MWC to the Pac-10. And it’s certainly bigger than any perceived difference between the Big 12 and Pac-10 or Big 12 and Big Ten. Translation -- Boise State is going to be in a lot more close games than it’s experienced in the WAC. Eventually, the Broncos have to cool off.

As for the Big 12 defectors, I’m not buying the Huskers’ chances of reaching the Rose Bowl, until they get a better-than-average quarterback in the program. They just got a commitment from hot-shot quarterback recruit Bubba Starling. Just because his name is so awesome, I’m hoping he’s the guy. But until Bubba proves himself, I just can’t see the Huskers grinding their way through the Big Ten

Colorado has even less chance. I’ve probably watched six or seven Buff... [More]