Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 02:59 PM
Out of the nine teams that were 3-0 ATS heading into last week, only three made it to 4-0 ATS: Georgia Tech, Temple and Arkansas State. Navy was off and has a chance to go 4-0 ATS, along with Stanford and Rutgers, this week. Florida and Wisconsin are both 3-0-1. There are four 0-4 ATS teams: Penn State, North Carolina State, Central Michigan and Kent State. College football’s elite teams pay off more consistently than the NFL’s elite. The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS (67.6%), with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number. The last 11 Super Bowl champs went a combined 103-70-3 ATS (58.5%). The last seven Super Bowl champs, starting with the Patriots’ second of back-to-back titles in 2005, are a mediocre 61-49 (55.4%).Louisiana-Lafayette ranks near the top in red-zone efficiency offense and near the bottom of red-zone efficiency defense. When betting totals, this is the No. 1 stat I consider.There have been some mammoth line-movements in college football this season. The Las Vegas Wynn is the first to market with their numbers that go up at 3 p.m. Vegas time Sunday. When sharp money arrives, Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn, doesn’t hesitate to move numbers quickly, sometimes jumping points at time, even across key numbers. For example, Avello opened Georgia Tech as a 6-point favorite at North Carolina State. By Monday, it was up to Georgia Tech -11 by Monday. But while these drastic early line moves are certainly ey... [More]
Posted Thursday, September 15, 2011 04:23 PM
Even with the Les Miles’ notes ATS struggles in SEC play, sportsbooks are rooting for Mississippi State tonight.
Yet, four hours before kickoff, most books are refusing to move the number off of LSU -3.5, despite being heavy on the Tigers. The fear of big sharp money that would come if they went to -4 is the reason.
The MGM Mirage was very heavy LSU, before a significant bet came in on the Bulldogs +3.5 this afternoon.
“I wouldn’t characterize it as a sharp bet,” said MGM manager Jay Rood, “but it was a big bet.”
The sportsbook at Caesars is in the same boat, according senior analyst Todd Fuhrman.
“It’s fast and furious on LSU, but if we were to move it off of 3.5, sharps would come in,” said Fuhrman. “If it goes to 4, it’s likely because the public money didn’t slow down.”
The number did reach LSU -4 at multiple offshore books this afternoon, but as of 4 p.m. ET was back at -3.5 almost unanimously.
The total on the game is in a similar position, holding on the key number of 49. Rood says he’s seen a little action on the over, but nothing major.
Mississippi State starting left tackle James Carmon has been ruled out, and starting center Quentin Saulsberry is questionable.
Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 02:16 AM
Pac-12 miscommunication over the final score of the Utah-Southern Cal game took two hours to correct and cost some Las Vegas sportsbooks big bucks.
USC, favored by 8 ½ over the visiting Utes, blocked a potential tying field goal on the game’s final play. Torin Harris returned the blocked kick for a touchdown as time expired, which made the final score 23-14 in favor of the Trojans.
But USC flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct on the play, after the bench entered the field before the play was over. Nearly everyone, including the official scorer, thought the touchdown had been nullified. The final score was posted at USC 17, Utah 14.
Two hours later, however, the Pac-12 released the following statement from the conference’s officiating coordinator Tony Corrente:
“The final play of the game between USC and Utah was ruled properly and the touchdown did stand. There was a miscommunication between the officials and the press box that led to the confusion about the final score. We will make the appropriate adjustments to improve communication between on field officials and press box personnel so that we avoid any scoring issues in the future.”
For some Vegas sportsbooks, it was too little, too late. The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, for example, paid Utah bettors for the first two hours after the game, before the ruling was made.
It cost the Hilton a big chunk of the “five-figure” handle that it took on the game, after it elected to pay USC tic... [More]
Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 04:32 PM
My favorite types of gambling stories are the ones that provide some insight on the individual sweats, and there were plenty of sweaty gamblers on Saturday.
For example, imagine having a big parlay come down to Michigan +3.5. Well, Covers.com writer Josh Nagel did. His little little 6-teamer
paid a nifty $2,080, thanks to the Wolverines' heroics ... err ... Notre Dame's atrocious defense.
Anyway, you can send your pics and screenshots of your winning wagers to our Twitter feed, @CoversSports
. I'll be posting them on the blog.
I'm really hoping to see tickets from folks who bet on Utah and went to bed thinking they had won only to wake up to a loss.
I had Utah, and my book ruled no action. I bet there were some horror stories, though, and I'm glad I wasn't a customer service rep Sunday.
Here's the official statement from the Pac-12 on the Utah-USC ending:
"The final play of the game between USC and Utah was ruled properly and the touchdown did stand. There was a miscommunication between the officials and the press box that led to the confusion about the final score. We will make the appropriate adjustments to improve communication between on field officials and press box personnel so that we avoid any scoring issues in the future. -- Tony Corrente, Pac-12 Officiating Coordinator:"
Why it took two hours to correct the "miscommunication"... [More]
Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 12:37 PM
On Sunday, one of Las Vegas’ independent odds services actually sent out a suggested line of Auburn -1 against Mississippi State.
The Las Vegas Wynn, generally the first Nevada book to post weekly college numbers, opened Mississippi State at -1, around 3 p.m. ET, Sunday. By nightfall, the Bulldogs were laying 7 in Vegas and offshore.
Clearly, if you gauged the opening line on public perception, it was way off. Auburn needed an onside kick and two late touchdowns to survive against Utah State; Mississippi State put up a record offensive performance in drubbing lowly Memphis.
Surely, the Wynn had to expect Mississippi State money when they opened the Bulldogs as tiny favorites. It’s enough to make me hesitant to bet on MSU, which is unquestionably the more experienced, better team.
Remember, books that held off posting numbers until later on Sunday or on Monday opened Mississippi State as a 6- or 7-point favorite. It stayed that way early in the week. But some Auburn money came in on Thursday night, dropping the line down to as low as 5.5 at some books as of Friday morning. So most shops have seen more Auburn money right now. Interesting, at least to me.
Saturday Morning Capping on Twitter
From 10 a.m. to noon ET on Saturdays, I fill the @CoverSports Twitter feed
with as much handicapping info about the early games as possible.
We usually get a pretty good exchange of informati... [More]