Even with the Les Miles’ notes ATS struggles in SEC play, sportsbooks are rooting for Mississippi State tonight.
Yet, four hours before kickoff, most books are refusing to move the number off of LSU -3.5, despite being heavy on the Tigers. The fear of big sharp money that would come if they went to -4 is the reason.
The MGM Mirage was very heavy LSU, before a significant bet came in on the Bulldogs +3.5 this afternoon.
“I wouldn’t characterize it as a sharp bet,” said MGM manager Jay Rood, “but it was a big bet.”
The sportsbook at Caesars is in the same boat, according senior analyst Todd Fuhrman.
“It’s fast and furious on LSU, but if we were to move it off of 3.5, sharps would come in,” said Fuhrman. “If it goes to 4, it’s likely because the public money didn’t slow down.”
The number did reach LSU -4 at multiple offshore books this afternoon, but as of 4 p.m. ET was back at -3.5 almost unanimously.
The total on the game is in a similar position, holding on the key number of 49. Rood says he’s seen a little action on the over, but nothing major.
Mississippi State starting left tackle James Carmon has been ruled out, and starting center Quentin Saulsberry is questionable.