David_Payne's Blog

College football betting bulletpoints

By David_Payne | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 02:59 PM   0 comments
Out of the nine teams that were 3-0 ATS heading into last week, only three made it to 4-0 ATS: Georgia Tech, Temple and Arkansas State. Navy was off and has a chance to go 4-0 ATS, along with Stanford and Rutgers, this week. Florida and Wisconsin are both 3-0-1. There are four 0-4 ATS teams: Penn State, North Carolina State, Central Michigan and Kent State.  College football’s elite teams pay off more consistently than the NFL’s elite. The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS (67.6%), with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number. The last 11 Super Bowl champs went a combined 103-70-3 ATS (58.5%). The last seven Super Bowl champs, starting with the Patriots’ second of back-to-back titles in 2005, are a mediocre 61-49 (55.4%).Louisiana-Lafayette ranks near the top in red-zone efficiency offense and near the bottom of red-zone efficiency defense. When betting totals, this is the No. 1 stat I consider.There have been some mammoth line-movements in college football this season. The Las Vegas Wynn is the first to market with their numbers that go up at 3 p.m. Vegas time Sunday. When sharp money arrives, Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn, doesn’t hesitate to move numbers quickly, sometimes jumping points at time, even across key numbers. For example, Avello opened Georgia Tech as a 6-point favorite at North Carolina State. By Monday, it was up to Georgia Tech -11 by Monday. But while these drastic early line moves are certainly eye-catching, it’s easy to overreact. As Caesars sportsbook analyst said, “It takes a lot less money to move these lines early than it does late.”
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