David_Payne's Blog

Local book on LSU-Bama + Payneful picks

By David_Payne | View all Posts
Posted Friday, November 04, 2011 03:08 PM   1 comment
The betting action on LSU-Alabama on the local side of things appears to be mirroring the action in Vegas and offshore.

“The ticket count is higher on LSU but the money is pretty even at this point,” a local bookmaker who works out of Pennsylvania told me Friday.

That’s the story in Las Vegas, too, where the public is in love with LSU to an overwhelming extent, but books are hesitant to drop the spread. Alabama is around a 4.5 to 5-point favorite, with the majority of books on the lower side.

The Pennsylvania bookie was sticking with Tide -4.5 as of Friday as well.

“I anticipate being heavy LSU by kickoff, so I may get down to -4 by tomorrow afternoon, but we’ll see,” he said.

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Depending on the number you got, Stanford improved to 8-0 against the spread with its overtime win against USC.

The Cardinal’s ATS run to the start the season is second only to Kansas in 2007. The Jayhawks covered the spread in their first 10 games and finished 11-1 ATS.

I bet against Stanford last week, but was lucky enough to get +8, as posted here.

I only bring that up because it salvaged an 0-2-1 week in my Payneful Picks. I’d like to do better this week. Help me.

PAYNEFUL PICKS

Last week: 0-2-1. Season: a fading 15-11-1.

Stanford (-21) @ Oregon State

I know there are so many reasons not to back the Cardinal in this spot. They host Oregon next week and certainly have the full respect of oddsmakers, who have admitted to inflating the lines on Stanford.

But this is the worst line on the board to me.

Pick: Stanford -21

TCU (-19.5, 57.5) at Wyoming

Snow with a 22-mph cross wind is forecast in Laramie. Give me under 57.5, while it’s still out there.

Pick: Under 57.5

Army at Air Force (-17, 59)

Strong winds and rain is also expected in Colorado Springs, where Army visits without its starting quarterback.

Pick: Under 59
1 comment
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Josh_Nagel says:
11/06/11 11:04AM
Nothing like a clean sweep to get you back in the game. Nice job.
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