Davidscott40's Blog

Posted Wednesday, May 19, 2010 07:45 AM

Would we profit simply FADING the public everytime ?

Let's face it, we all know the books profit OVERALL against us.  By gathering insights from Logans interviews, we also know that books PROFIT THE MOST from TEASER and PARLAY bets.  They love them (except NFL 2team 6pt teasers...according to Logans).
   I always wondered though, do books also profit overall on strictly STRAIGHT action, beyond the juice ?  Periodically I see on the 'match up' page on covers for a game (along with the game thread) a TRIFECTA OF CONSENSUS.  The Public, Cover's Experts, and thread posters.. ALL over 75-80% on the same side.  Upon seeing that, I automatically take the other side, AND IT PAYS $ much more often than not.  It's just a simple reminder, ...most of us are doomed to lose in the end.
   What if we simply faded the Public on every bet ?  Would we profit ?  To do so, Books would have to profit BEYOND the 10% juice they get on the overall straight action.  Wouldn't we kill to know if that actually happens (and what the ACTUAL % overall profit is on the straight action).  I realize that line movement greatly complicates matters here, but fading the Public 'trending' on a game would also apply. 
   Is any of this information READILY available ?  I would like any help / insights that would provide 'data' on how well books do on straight action.  The answers could create its own 'system'. 
   Being selective on our plays and... [More]

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User: Davidscott40
Joined: August 2009
Location: Virgin Islands USA
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Occupation: Management

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