DiscoD69's Blog

@theDisco - Week 4

By DiscoD69 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, September 27, 2008 03:25 PM   18 comments
Hey there sports fans  Lets hope the success keeps going despite the ugly card.
 
ATS Record: 
Week 1: 6-5 (unposted)
Week 2: 8-3-2 (unposted)
Week 3: 7-2 posted (11-3 overall), (2-1 posted straigt bets)
 
Straight Bets:
 
1/2 Unit: TB -1.5 (-110)
Not in love with any plays this week, this game looks like the best I can find. Rogers has not thrown an INT this year but his only road start so far was at Detroit. Not the same as that Tampa 2 & once they see the film from what the Cowboys did I'm hoping they give him some confusing looks. A takeaway and a ground game that eats clock could lead to a relatively easy win I hope.
 
1/2 Unit: DAL -10.5 (-104)
Again not the strongest play and I hate backing the Cowboys but this line was made for Washington action. Fade the public dog, and at this number, I'm just hoping for the best. This cover depends on Dallas' D more than anything. If they show up, a cover is possible.
 
1/2 Unit: PHI -3 (-104)
Hate this play. Hate this game. Philly just is playing so well, it's also rare to see a letdown on a night game, nobody likes to get shown up on national tv. If Philly shows up, I like what they do, the Bears can't collapse in the second half if they expect to hang with Philly. But that comes down to the Bears D being on the field all game, by the 4th they should be tired. Watch Philly's Blitz scemes vs. the bears O-line. That's the key matchup if the Bears wanna win, they must block for both Orton & the ground game.
 
The Rest...mixed up in small parlays for fun (+ $650 L2 weeks @ $50/week)
 
It should be noted that I actaully like all my dogs better but couldn't get a line or a price on any that I liked even for a 1/2 unit.
 
KC +9.5
If they run & score, they'll beat this spread. Just keep Denver's Offense on the sideline, control the clock. Denver coering depends on them stopping the run. I'll take the divisional home dog cus of the value in the high number as well.
 
HOU +7.5
Way too high a number. JAX has won once this yea & needed a last second FG just to win by 2. This play makes me nervous but HOU always plays them tough.
 
ARZ +3
I get this game at +3 b/c of how dumb ProLine is. I'll take it. I'm making good money betting against the Jets so far & don't see a reason why this is any different.
 
ATL +7
Similar to HOU in the sense that this is too big a number for divisional games with favourites who havent blown anybody out, and don't historically either. CAR has won both their games on last minute BS, you don't cover spreads like that. CAR is a good dog but a 7 point fav. No thanks. Be weary of Matt Ryan vs. that D if they show up though. That might make the difference for CAR if they do what Tampa did.
 
MIN +3.5
After backing TEN the first 3 weeks the public has finally caught on just in tie for the line to make no sense. That's b/c MIN matches up well. 2 smashmouth teams, good running, good stopping the run. This is the best matchup of the week. HUGE value in getting +3.5 in these games historically and from a matchup standpoint.
 
OAK +9
This is kinda a stay away game, kinda div. home dog play. SD is my fav team but not cus of what they've done this year. They're overvalued but who knows how OAK will show up.
 
Lean on BAL for Monday but no play for now...
 
BOL this week everyone 
18 comments
comment Post A Comment
dopalicous says:
09/27/08 03:29PM
gl
DiscoD69 says:
09/27/08 04:10PM
Ty Dopalicous

 

Hoping the Dogs Bark

DiscoD69 says:
09/27/08 07:07PM
Adding:

 

1/2 Unit: ARZ +1 (-102)

1/2 Unit: MIN +3 (+105)

 

I'm adding these additional straight bets because I'm more of a dog player and all my other straight bets were the only favs I had this week. Even though I get ARZ +3, I'm backing them at +1 hoping they win SU.

 

MIN for reasons above, and at plus juice I'm gonna bank on their run D, and offensive line.

 

Again, BOL this week

 

DiscoD69 says:
09/27/08 07:57PM
Thoughts from the forum?
Cyrax says:
09/27/08 08:51PM
The KC+9.5 looks pretty good so far...  
DiscoD69 says:
09/27/08 08:58PM

 

Yea, and with so much action on DEN, yet the line not moving to 10, makes me feel like the books are backing the Cheifs. As I said above all they have to do run effectively to have a chance

 

UglyKidJoe says:
09/27/08 09:39PM
dude.......you know whats up..................its SF +5
DiscoD69 says:
09/27/08 10:19PM

I forgot to post this game

Adding:

SF +6.5 One of the best plays this week and it's not a straight bet because I can't get it at over 4 now, and even then with at least -115. fuck that,  much more value in 2.5 points in the NFL, especially with teams that can score and have any combination of numbers by games end. I do like the Saints, but of the teams that will be on the field SF is much more balanced all over. This is actually a good matchup but with the Saints banged up there is a lot of value in catching almost a TD.

Thanks for reminding me Joe

PS - I did not play BUF/STL as every week so far I would have been on the Rams, yet every week I've stayed away from them ..tomorrow is no different

BOL this week

DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 12:49AM
Anybody got anything good for MNF?

 

lwright36 says:
09/28/08 12:59AM
can I be your book ? 

 

Would even cut you a break on juice with those picks

DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 01:01AM
you could just send me money if you want

 

DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 01:04AM

Feel free to give some reasons for your distaste

lwright36 says:
09/28/08 01:05AM
Sure, here you go.  Free money

 

N.O. -4

Atl/Car over 39

N.O./San Fran under 48

 

 

DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 01:08AM
No oppinion on the totals.

 

I've already given you stuff in your thread about the Saints.

 

I mean what makes you say you don't like whatever which one of my plays. I love breaking down the action.

 

lwright36 says:
09/28/08 01:12AM
Be careful with Minn +3.5

 

Tenn at home is a freaking monster.   Titans secoondary is just as good as D-line....this one will be about turnovers.....one turnover likely loses this game.

 

Remember the name Titans Courtland Finnegan......easy probowler this year, in fact may just be in the discussion for best DB in the league....wathced film on him.....as good as it gets.....

DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 01:22AM
I completely understand what you're saying. I'm no starnger to the Titans D as they are my fantasy stud so far.

 

I have been careful with Minny, I've been careful for the last two weeks and still made a ton of money, cut my units in half and spread em out a little.

 

I'm not in love with that play but I do really like the value...not to mention what I said about the public's understanding of how good this team is and for whatever reason the line doesn't reflect that sentiment.

 

MIN +3.5

lwright36 says:
09/28/08 01:31AM
cool, suggest playing it small. it really is a coin flip, a turnover is huge in this game  
DiscoD69 says:
09/28/08 01:47AM

You said it all....value in a coin flip game usually decided by a FG if I get it at +3.5

Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: DiscoD69
Joined: March 2006
Location: Canada
Team: San Diego Chargers
Occupation:

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories

Advertisement