Hey there sports fans Lets hope the success keeps going despite the ugly card.
ATS Record:
Week 1: 6-5 (unposted)
Week 2: 8-3-2 (unposted)
Week 3: 7-2 posted (11-3 overall), (2-1 posted straigt bets)
Straight Bets:
1/2 Unit: TB -1.5 (-110)
Not in love with any plays this week, this game looks like the best I can find. Rogers has not thrown an INT this year but his only road start so far was at Detroit. Not the same as that Tampa 2 & once they see the film from what the Cowboys did I'm hoping they give him some confusing looks. A takeaway and a ground game that eats clock could lead to a relatively easy win I hope.
1/2 Unit: DAL -10.5 (-104)
Again not the strongest play and I hate backing the Cowboys but this line was made for Washington action. Fade the public dog, and at this number, I'm just hoping for the best. This cover depends on Dallas' D more than anything. If they show up, a cover is possible.
1/2 Unit: PHI -3 (-104)
Hate this play. Hate this game. Philly just is playing so well, it's also rare to see a letdown on a night game, nobody likes to get shown up on national tv. If Philly shows up, I like what they do, the Bears can't collapse in the second half if they expect to hang with Philly. But that comes down to the Bears D being on the field all game, by the 4th they should be tired. Watch Philly's Blitz scemes vs. the bears O-line. That's the key matchup if the Bears wanna win, they must block for both Orton & the ground game.
The Rest...mixed up in small parlays for fun (+ $650 L2 weeks @ $50/week)
It should be noted that I actaully like all my dogs better but couldn't get a line or a price on any that I liked even for a 1/2 unit.
KC +9.5
If they run & score, they'll beat this spread. Just keep Denver's Offense on the sideline, control the clock. Denver coering depends on them stopping the run. I'll take the divisional home dog cus of the value in the high number as well.
HOU +7.5
Way too high a number. JAX has won once this yea & needed a last second FG just to win by 2. This play makes me nervous but HOU always plays them tough.
ARZ +3
I get this game at +3 b/c of how dumb ProLine is. I'll take it. I'm making good money betting against the Jets so far & don't see a reason why this is any different.
ATL +7
Similar to HOU in the sense that this is too big a number for divisional games with favourites who havent blown anybody out, and don't historically either. CAR has won both their games on last minute BS, you don't cover spreads like that. CAR is a good dog but a 7 point fav. No thanks. Be weary of Matt Ryan vs. that D if they show up though. That might make the difference for CAR if they do what Tampa did.
MIN +3.5
After backing TEN the first 3 weeks the public has finally caught on just in tie for the line to make no sense. That's b/c MIN matches up well. 2 smashmouth teams, good running, good stopping the run. This is the best matchup of the week. HUGE value in getting +3.5 in these games historically and from a matchup standpoint.
OAK +9
This is kinda a stay away game, kinda div. home dog play. SD is my fav team but not cus of what they've done this year. They're overvalued but who knows how OAK will show up.
Lean on BAL for Monday but no play for now...
BOL this week everyone