This is a really tough week. Hope to bounce back from last week and get back on track
ATS Record:
Week 1: 6-5 (unposted)
Week 2: 8-3-2 (unposted)
Week 3: 7-2 posted (11-3 overall), (2-1 posted straigt bets)
Week 4: 4-7 (overall), (1-4 straight bets)
Straight Bets:
1/2 Unit: TEN -2.5 (-107)
With both teams playing well. This is a situation play mostly. BAL is 0-4 L4 after MNF and that matches up with the fact that Flacco is coing off a physical divisional game, and has a short week to study the film of the best D in the league. The same goes for recovery time for the rest of the Ravens as the Titans are also VERY physical. I think Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the NFL so I expect the Titans to both show up & be well prepared.
1/2 Unit: TB +3 (+110)
This is cut & dry. Run all over the Broncos, do your best to shut em down. Tampa is playing well & have the tools needed to win on the road (well coached, solid D & running game). That combination also doesn't match up with Denver so I do like the Bucs in this spot.
*Key Trends: (ATS)
TB 3-0 L3 on Grass (DEN 1-3)
DEN 1-3 L4 as fav. (6-18 L3 seasons)
DEN 0-1 as home fav. of 3 or less (1-5 L3 seasons)
DEN 0-2 after div.
DEN 0-2 when the total is between 42.5-49 (1-12 L3 seasons)
1/2 Unit: NE -3.5 (+108)
A game where I'm throwing all stats & trends out the door and hoping that there is value in less than a TD. Hoping that the Pats Schemed on their bye and get their D back on track. 'fingers crossed'
1/2 Unit: ARZ -2 (-107)
Trap game. I get it at +3 on ProLine so figure it out for yourself. The key I think is that the Bills should be 2-2 & they travel West for the second straight week and play a hungry team. Book it.
The Rest: (Mixed in parlays for fun, and doing quite well)
HOU +4.5
Divisional Dog @ more than a FG (and more than 4 which is another key #) Both teams playing poorly but this is also the Texans' home opener. If they show up, they win or at least keep it close enough
MIA +7.5
Tough spot for the chargers who make the long flight to play 1:00 after crossing 3 time zones. Also, the Fins have had two weeks to plan for a D that is both banged up and allowing yards all over. 7.5 is way too many.
CAR -9.5
Not much interest except that the Chiefs rank 27th overall on offence in YPG. In the redzone, they convert TD's only 54% of the time while the Panthers' D is allowing only a 22% conversion rate. That is a huge advantage if it keeps up and if yards are hard to come by for the Cheifs, settling for FG's might make the difference between a beat and a cover. Be weary of CAR penalty issues playing spoiler on that cover.
WAS +6
No explanation. Don't really like either side. Weary of injuries...but, divisional dog on the rise vs. a banged up Philly squad.
DET +5.5
Divisional home dog. Again don't like either side. much a stay away game but I'm just hoping the Lions took the bye to address the run D. If they did, they will hang tough.
SEA +7.5
Everyone knows how bad SEA is and their trends etc. Yea we know. but, lets remember that those trends reflect a SEA team asked to cover spreads on the road, some times large, or at the very least as a small dog. I'll bank that most were not even close to more than a TD...and they get their much needed recievers back, and have had the bye to prepare.
CIN +17.5
Book this one. Even if Dallas covers, the line is just awsome
JAX -3.5
PIT is much too banged up. If they can't run (no RB's) & Ben gets sacked all day, how will they hang with a steadily improving, very tough & physical Jags team. (Also coming off a very physical game)
MIN +3.5
Don't usually like playing MNF, especially this early. But if Minny Runs well (& they should) then they can control the clock and score somewhat easily. On the flip side, sometimes NO will move the ball, sometimes they won't. That won't be enought to cover
BOL all
Feedback is much appreciated, aggreed or disagreed with the picks