DogCaller's Blog

Point Spread Dog System for NBA and NHL

By DogCaller | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, December 09, 2008 04:08 PM

31 comments

Hello Forum...I sure like some of the threads already going in here, and I figured I'd throw my own simple system to go along...

I made a simple discovery some time ago. I assigned a number value to each team based on the same idea that everyone's name adds up to a certain number, and that number represents the value of that individual in certain regards. Ever heard the saying that "That team just has that other team's number?". I think it's true to a certain extent. I found that the team that simply has the lower number value in their total name when added up, is usually the favorite on the line around 70% of the time. I found that they will win as a dog against the spread at least 60% of the time. So, I will post the lower number dog teams, and we will see what the results are. If there's enough interest in time, I will post the value of each team, so you can do it yourself without any assistance. I use Pro-Line odds as the bench mark, as the line is always stable, and we don't need to get involved in line movements, and such. Here goes...

Today's Games...

NBA

ATLANTA +7.5

ORLANDO +4.5

SACRAMENTO +12.5

NHL

NY ISLANDERS +1.5

CALGARY +.05

LA KINGS +.05

Yesterday went 2-1, day before 4-0, etc...etc.

Cheers!

DogCaller

Report Abuse

31 comments

Post A Comment

DogCaller says:

12/10/08 10:36AM

Yesterday's Results... NBA 2-1 NHL 1-2. Does work better overall on the NBA.

Once again most of the lower numbered teams are favored in the NBA tonight.

NBA Dec 10

Indiana +5.5

Charlotte +11.5

Phoenix +9.5

NHL

New Jersey Devils... +.05

Boston +.05

Calgary +1.5

Saint Louis +1.5

allbees says:

12/10/08 11:55AM

What does that mean exactly?

Tomspeople says:

12/10/08 01:24PM

How many games did you test this for...

DogCaller says:

12/10/08 02:08PM

allbees..

It just means that some names when put to numbers add up a different number. For instance tonight Charlotte is the Underdog, and their name total when added up is ten less then New Orleans. It's like a=1 b=2 etc, then add them up, and you get a total. So, Charlotte is a lower numbered team Underdog, and playing them will net you a win a bit over 60% of the time. Tomspeople..I've checked out HUNDREDS of games, and the average is just over 60% winning percentage. It's been that way for years. There were days of course when they all went south, so It's a plug along sort of system, for about ten percent profit on all your plays in the long haul. I never played it that much, because I am impatient and greedy, but I'm changing!...LOL.

I still find it very odd, that the lower numbered teams are so often the favorite on any line, and nearly every sport...go figure !??! There has got to be something to it. I think I will go back for the last month, and put up the stats on lowered numbered teams being the favorite, at least for basketball just to show the forum what I'm talking about...

Cheers!

DogCaller

Diamondjake says:

12/10/08 02:41PM

Toms, does this make sense to you?

stringpicker says:

12/10/08 02:53PM

Ha Ha I am betting on Indianapolis...not Indy!

unohuim says:

12/10/08 05:28PM

wild..so nothing based on the game itself.?

bol

DogCaller says:

12/10/08 06:11PM

Well, unohuim, Nothing based on the game itself...no. If games were that predictable, you wouldn't need any systems or structured guidelines whatsoever. Maybe stay away from the truly lousy teams at the very bottom of the leagues, but we know even they can pull off upsets once in a while...

Anyways, legend has it that a guy came up with a similar system years ago, back in the '20's and 30's for baseball, and his family still owns quite a hunk of Vegas...

Proof will be in the pudding.

Cheers!

kenyonlv says:

12/30/08 10:16PM

The thing about it is it never changes ... week after week, year after year, you would always pick the same team. So who does your system pick on Celtics/Lakers? Supersonics to Thunder threw a new wrinkle in, but other then that it doesn't change. Do you just use mascot name or city or both?

kenyonlv says:

12/31/08 01:03AM

I agree it's pretty friging funny, but with as much thought and effort I put into my system, I know I will have a hard time keeping up with one that picks the same team till eternity based on some kind of numerology. But hey what can you do ... I look forward to the >60% clip, I can toss my system, use this, and soon I'll own a bigger chunk of Vegas compared to what I have now.

usakangy says:

01/03/09 12:49PM

gasman33 says:

01/03/09 01:10PM

....if its a winner system

....Lets give him a chance...

.... I have heard of stupider "sytems".....

please back test it for us to evaluate....

.....

gasman33 says:

01/03/09 01:11PM

....but be does have 5 black star rating....

.....hit above 60% and we are all ears...

usakangy says:

01/04/09 12:31PM

I will just say this. Some methods of picking teams are just off-the-wall. However, I have never discredited anyone for trying and I won't start now. It is just funny the ideas people come up with, and with all fairness to the original poster, if the system works and has a proven track record, then why not?? After all, we are in this for a common goal.

We could even take the ages of the head coaches and pick the winner based on the elder of the two head coaches or pick the winner based on how many times that head coach has been fired. If it works, so be it.

usakangy says:

01/04/09 12:37PM

I used to think LIONS, were always better than TIGERS and BEARS. OH MY! Boy, was I wrong! Especially this year! But you get the point. I admit, it is unique way to pick teams, but as I said before, if the original poster can back test this for a few seasons in each sport to get a gauge..... Also think about this, in a season where there are so many games, like NBA or NHL, any team CAN beat any other team on a given day. Just my thoughts. Hope the backtesting produces the 60% results.

kenyonlv says:

01/04/09 09:23PM

I have never heard of a easier system to backtest ... all we need is the method, which is why I asked last week. I'm anxious to put an end to this thread.

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 10:12AM

I said in one post I'd love to hear any system suggestion and I would run some numbers against it and back test it. "No idea too off the wall" I thought. I stand corrected. Backtest this with any teams record against each team (reversing ATS W/L of course with whether they have a larger or small numerology rating - oh man I am trying to hard to be serious).

Okay so tacked on to the end of this post is your numerology chart (thank good for the "countif" function). And because I nearly pissed myself laughing at your expense here is the record for the Timberwolves using this system from the start of the 2000 season until yesterday

Timberwolves: Win 338...........Losses 357

Using this system you can never bet on the Magic (lowest score) and must always bet on 76er's, which spelled out is the highest score. I don't know who you play if the Spurs and Nuggets play (same score).

Anyways, moving on....

163 T I M B E R W O L V E S

100 W i z a r d s
121 W a r r i o r s
143 T r a i l b l a z e r s
90 T h u n d e r
158 S u p e r s o n i c s
73 S u n s
93 S p u r s
204 S e v e n t y s i x e r s
91 R o c k e t s
107 R a p t o r s
112 P i s t o n s
62 P a c e r s
93 N u g g e t s
58 N e t s
101 M a v e r i c k s
33 M a g i c
66 L a k e r s
67 K n i c k s
60 K i n g s
63 J a z z
99 H o r n e t s
34 H e a t
62 H a w k s
131 G r i z z l i e s
98 C l i p p e r s
71 C e l t i c s
90 C a v a l i e r s
66 B u l l s
56 B u c k s
62 B o b c a t s

kenyonlv says:

01/12/09 03:36PM

No Dodge you did it all wrong ... he said the total team name so I assume you have to include the city as well. LOL

You know you don't need to add up the letters to test ... just look at all the matchups (Atl vs Bos, Atl vs Cha, etc) and see how many have a > 60% edge when they are the dog. If you go back far enough (include enough games) I guarantee you will find none. It's all a joke, but it illustrates the desire we all have for a magic system.

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 05:17PM

Sorry you are totally right - laughing must have got in the way.

In fact I totally botched it. I guess I just thought wow, I could make a system that told me to bet on the team where the starting center whose car had the lower gas mileage than the opposing team's center .... well you get my point, it’s totally arbitrary. I think I responded for comic value rather than science.

Regardless, it doesn't matter whatsoever. So always play Magic gotcha and never play 76'ers. And how do I figure out the gas mileage on the cars that all the leagues centers own?

Patriotsfan1 - Thanks for pointing out the error - kudos. Everyone else I apologize for the error.

For some more totally arbitrary plays:

For totals less than 200 played in the month of January, play the under on Thurs and Mon and the over on Sunday for inter divisional games only.

Record since 2000 season

Day-Total-O/U

Thursday total<200 12-24
Monday total<200 30-46
Sunday total<200 28-16

(I hope you know I am joking here - you will get killed on those arbitary plays in the long run. But if you like numerology, the calendar plays will be a big hit.)

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 05:25PM

Kenyonlv...you are right. But there is no fun in that analysis. But, if you are curious, here are the best ATS RECORDS (note NOT PLAYS just RECORDS)

Spurs at home to Warriors: 13-2

Spurs at home to Jazz: 15-4

Trailblazers at home to Lakers: 12-2

Seventysixers at home to Raptors: 3-13

Celtics at home to Magic: 13-3

Lakers at home to Nuggets: 14-4

Hornets at home to Heat: 12-3

Suns at home to Trailblazers: 13-4

Wizards at home to Heat: 4-13

Bulls at home to Pistons: 5-14

Celtics at home to Grizzlies: 0-8

Magic at home to Nuggets: 8-0

Supersonics at home to Bucks: 8-0

Timberwolves at home to Hornets: 2-10

Seventysixers at home to Celtics: 4-12

Rockets at home to Suns: 4-12

Knicks at home to Celtics: 4-12

Hawks at home to Wizards: 4-12

Raptors at home to Pacers: 12-4

Warriors at home to Trailblazers: 12-4

Nets at home to Bulls: 12-4

Warriors at home to Mavericks: 13-5

NOTE These are ATS records and have NOTHING to do with numerology. :-)

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 05:28PM

Fekk ..nice formatting sorry.....

Spurs at home to Warriors: 13-2
Spurs at home to Jazz: 15-4
Trailblazers at home to Lakers: 12-2
Seventysixers at home to Raptors: 3-13
Celtics at home to Magic: 13-3
Lakers at home to Nuggets: 14-4
Hornets at home to Heat: 12-3
Suns at home to Trailblazers: 13-4
Wizards at home to Heat: 4-13
Bulls at home to Pistons: 5-14
Celtics at home to Grizzlies: 0-8
Magic at home to Nuggets: 8-0
Supersonics at home to Bucks: 8-0
Timberwolves at home to Hornets: 2-10
Seventysixers at home to Celtics: 4-12
Rockets at home to Suns: 4-12
Knicks at home to Celtics: 4-12
Hawks at home to Wizards: 4-12
Raptors at home to Pacers: 12-4
Warriors at home to Trailblazers: 12-4
Nets at home to Bulls: 12-4
Warriors at home to Mavericks: 13-5

kenyonlv says:

01/12/09 05:54PM

Yes, ATS spreads is what we want to look at, now you can apply the numerolgy to see if it is on the winning sides. LOL

Interesting records, that is why I said "if" you go back enough games, cuz I knew there would be differences > 60% in the short run, and with some teams only playing twice in a year it may take quite a few years to even out. Btw what time span is this??? I notice you have the Supersonics so it's probably more then one year.

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 05:59PM

How about YOU do the numerology analysis this time :-) and decide if city name is included :-)

ATS record is from 2000 - 2008 seasons (inclusive) sorted by the absolute value between ATS W/L.

Redlad says:

01/13/09 05:37AM

Dogcaller,

Please check your into a mental hospital. This is the craziest system I ever heard of. Why not just always bet the most fierce animal name. Lions=== well there goes that idea.

DogCaller says:

03/24/09 11:41PM

Ha Ha Ha! You guys have been talking about this for so long, and I didn't even notice...been so long since I've been in here. Anyways it's not at all like you think. I had to develop a hundred various mathematical formulaes to get it profitable, and the most important thing is the date...Now chew on that for a while...LOL Too bad there's no way to browse to my original threads anymore when I called 56 out of the first 60 hockey games I posted correctly, and not missing on a Dog winner in the first two weeks either...Then proclaim I need professional help...you venom spitting idiots.

Cheers!

DogCaller says:

03/24/09 11:52PM

Well, go back to Jan 2007 and take a look...

Lippsman says:

03/25/09 08:31AM

Over two years ago.

. So how have they done the past couple of months ?

Lippsman says:

03/24/09 11:44PM

So where have the picks been for the past couple of months ?

And if you search hard enough the threads are still here. Bump them if you can

dodgethis says:

01/12/09 07:50PM

Well be careful here in calling out the disparity. I am dealing with 899 possible game combinations 31 teams x 29 teams = 899. (NOTE: Supersonics and Thunder are in my database hence 31 teams - any one of which could play any of the other 29 teams (since Supersonics and Thunder never coexisted its 29 not 30))

My point being, there are 22 team playing team combinations with an ATS disparity of 8 or higher. That's it. So 2% of the combinations. That sounds like a pretty predictable number normal in a distribution. So really, all I have done is cherry picked the outliers.

For all I know the "numerology" works with these 22. Me, I am looking up vehicle mileage.

kenyonlv says:

01/12/09 11:31PM

Well there you have it folks ... the DogCaller system has been shot down and is just a smoldering "hunk" in the desert. I guess the guy that got so rich knew which 2 games out of 100 to play and with 1230 games/yr that leaves 25 games/yr to bet (assuming the numerolgy part does indeed work on all 22 pairs.) But with such a strong system he probably bet 100k a game, and with no losers (60 to 70% winners just doesn't cut it, might as well say the system is 100%) he's up 2.5M/yr and did this for say 25 years. That means 62.5M profit before taxes, which back in say the 70's might have bought a gas station size "hunk" on the strip.

Oh, I forgot ... it works on the NHL too. Dohhhhhh, .. it all sounds feasible to me now. LET'S ROLL !!!

kenyonlv says:

01/12/09 07:26PM

Good job, a little more disparity then I imagined over 8 seasons. Nah, I'll pass on the numerolgy part, but I WILL look into what kinda of cars all the centers drive. Finding out the mpg will be the easy part. I think we are on the right path to soon owning a "hunk" of Vegas.

Add your response:	You must be logged in to post a comment. Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.

Profile

User:	DogCaller
Joined:	January 2007
Location:	Canada
Team:
Occupation:

DogCaller's Blog

Point Spread Dog System for NBA and NHL

Profile

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories