DrStrangelove's Blog

My Big 12 Predictions

By DrStrangelove | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, May 31, 2009 11:14 AM   11 comments
Although I like to play pretty much every conference in the country, the Big 12 is my region and what I specialize in. I try to get info from as many sources on the net as I can when evaluating these teams. And I know my informantion is usually pretty solid when several different sources from different areas tend to be in agreement about possible strengths or problem areas of a team. As opposed to independent sources that might be giving the wrong info about a team. I like to backup my info from several outlets who are seeing the same things with a team. I also do this during the season. And I save my info for reference on each team. Anyway, this is the way that I'm seeing the Big 12 as it stands now. Of course, injuries, suspensions or other problems can derail these predictions. But this is the way I see it after the Spring practices.:
 
Big 12 North
 
1.Colorado-From everything that I'm hearing the Buffs aren't hurting nearly as much on defense as people think. The back 7 has made some solid progress in the spring. And they've got some real horses on the D-Line, although it is a little thin. I think sophomore nosetackle Eugeen Goree could be a breakout player for the Buffs if they choose to go to a 3-4 and use him at that position. CU has by far the best offensive line in the Big 12 North. And will have a great running game behind it. Right now, the QB is still a little unsettled. Mainly because Tyler Hansen broke his thumb this spring. But in my opinion Hawkins really doesn't have a problem here. I think both of these QB's can perform behind this line. From everything that I'm hearing, Hawkins is very confident of what he has this year. This offense is going to be really good. And the Buffs get Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri at home this season. A HUGE advantage to have in the North Division. I heard Hawkins say in an interview this Spring that he thinks his team can go 10-2 this season. And knowing Hawkins like I do in interviews, he doesn't usually say off the cuff stuff like that. I think he knows he has something this year. And he's past due after the season he had last year where the Buffs had more starts lost to injury than any team in the country. I think they surprise this year.
 
2. Kansas-I think it's going to be close between Kansas and Colorado. But I like CU's schedule a bit more. And I'm afraid the Jayhawks loss of those outstanding linebackers are really going to hurt that defense this year. especially when they hit the road against some of those good offense like Texas Tech, Colorado, and Texas is capable of overpowering them like they did last season in Lawrence. Plus I'm hearing that their hurting a little more on the offensive line than what they anticipated. I really like Reesing, but he could have some problems with his blindside this season if they don't get their tackle issue ironed out. Plus, I really question whether this team can perform as well when the expectations are higher like they are this season.
 
3.Nebraska-This is nothing against the Huskers. Outside of OU, I personally like this team more than any other in the Big 12. But almost every year for the last 10 years or so this team has been overrated and overhyped by the media. And with just 11 starters back, this reminds me a lot of the 2007 team that was way overhyped with the same amount of starters coming back. Nebraska simply has too many holes to fill at WR, LB,the  right side of the offensive line, And most importantly QB. Plus road games at Va Tech, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas and Colorado...Plus, I may be the first one to say this, but I'm not sold on Pelini just yet. He still seems like the little bit of the volatile type to me. And I'm not sure how well he can coach if should get in some head games against some of the better coaches out there. Hey, I could be wrong. But I'm just not 100% sure either way about this guy after only one year on the job..
 
4.Missouri-This team is obviously going to take a fall. But I don't think they fall any worse than 4th. They look like they are going to put more emphasis on the running game this year. Which if successful could take a little pressure off of rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense lost alot. But they will have a pretty decent defensive line. Especially at defensive end, where they have alot of depth. This team still has much more team speed than the two teams below them. And with all but 4 of their games played in Missouri this season they have a chance to get back to a bowl despite the huge losses to graduations.
 
5.Kansas St.-KSU is in kind of the same situation as Missouri is. They lost a longtime QB. And they have questions on defense. They'll have to make a big move from their 117th ranking in total defense last season if they want to be competetive this year. They get Snyder back as head coach this year. But they were on the decline when he left the first time. So I don't know if he can raise this team from the ashes or not. Whatever the case, it may take him a couple years to sort out the mess that Prince made of the team. The Mildcats go to yet another defensive scheme this year. So there will more than likely be an adjustment period. But despite 15 starters returning, this will actually be a rebuilding year for Snyder, who inherits a team who has fallen even farther since he left.
 
6.Iowa St-The local cellar dweller of the North. This team should be improved on offense despite a new coach and new system. But the Clones have some real problems with their defense in almost every area. Plus the defense simply aren't athletic enough or has enough speed to be competetive.. So they have a lot of conditioning to do to get up to speed. The secondary got blistered in game after game last season. Because of their offense, the Cyclones could be a little bit of a dangerous team at home against the North Dvision teams. But I see another winless season on the road. This team has a long ways to go. Seems like I've been saying that for the last 20 years.
 
 
I'll be back later with my South predictions.
11 comments
comment Post A Comment
intel1 says:
05/31/09 02:26PM
Pair Of Buffs Leaving Colorado
Posted by John Taylor on May 31, 2009, 11:53 a.m.

"Wide receiver Josh Smith and tight end Ryan Wallace have decided to transfer from Colorado, the Boulder Daily Camera is reporting.

Smith is transferring to a school that offers a music major not available at Colorado; it’s believed Arizona State and USC are potential destinations as they both offer the program the receiver seeks.

ASU could indeed be the frontrunner as Smith recorded music with Sun Devils quarterback Samson Szakacsy in Phoenix last year.

Wallace, on the other hand, is transferring because he wants to be closer to his Bowling Green, Kentucky, home.  The Daily Camera reported that Wallace spent the 2008 season homesick, so his move doesn’t come as a surprise.

The loss of Smith is particularly devastating to Colorado as the receiver accounted for nearly 2,000 total yards in 2008."


Buff offense takes a hit. No comment posted from Hawkins.
bookieassassin says:
05/31/09 02:44PM
\

tech is one of my favorite teams to follow / bet on/against.........remember Leach is actually an ATTORNEY.(no mercy)......that just happens to be a damn good football coach....,many times uses (has admitted in interviews)  1st 1/2 as feeling out period > turns it loose in 2nd......all you 1/2 time players out there (ME !!)
DrStrangelove says:
06/01/09 11:25AM
I understand everything you are saying. And I've taken all of this into account. The bottom line with Colorado is they have the most impressive looking athletes in the Big 12 North on both sides of the ball. I realize that some of these players are young (much younger last season). But from everything that I've been hearing since the spring practices, they have performed much better than expected. Especially the new players in the defensive backfield. The front four on defense may not be the front four this year. Hawkins is seriously thinking about going with a 3 man front to better defense the Big 12 spread offenses. And from what I'm hearing, they'll have 3 very capable big bodies there. Granted, they can't afford to get any of these players hurt. But that only puts them in the same category of the rest of the Big 12 North teams.

This much I can tell you guys about Colorado. I believe they are better than Nebraska with a better group of athletes. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. They have a very fluid QB situation with two very capable QB's. They are about on even standings with Kansas. But CU gets them at home this season. That's why I give CU the slight nod. And Kansas has a very difficult schedule. From my Big 12 experiences with Colorado this much I can tell you guys. They are a low profile team that gets absolutely no hype by the media. That's probably why they've done so well in the past in winning the Big 12 North when they weren't supposed to. This team has always had better athletes than people think. And this year is a perfect example. I have found that when the Buffs are healthy and have a good running game they are a very good team. And they have those ingredients this year. The key is staying healthy. When RB Scott has been healthy he has played well for them. And physically Colorado can play and sometimes push around the big boys up front when healthy. Like a couple of years ago when they pushed around OU's defensive front around and upset them in Boulder. That same year they also beat Texas Tech on the road with the running game. Like I said, Hawkins has recruited every bit as well or better than Nebraska, and they have the athletes (15 returning starters) this year to get it done. A good running game by Colorado is usually bad news for the rest of the North. This has been the modus operandi for the last decade in that division. For CU it is just a matter of staying healthy.

I know alot has been made about the Colorado defense here. But nobody is talking about Nebraska's or Kansas. Both of those teams lose a ton of total tackles on both defenses, yet I'm not hearing anything about them struggling. I guess because Bo Pelini is a defensive coach that everybody assumes Nebraska is going to be improved on that side of the ball despite having only 5 starters back. And before we get too enamored with defense and North Division teams, lets keep in mind that Missouri gave up almost 27 ppg last season in winning the Big 12 North. And they lost at home to OSU, got killed on the road against Texas, and got throttled by OU on a neutral field. If you can call Kansas City a neutral field. It doesn't take nearly as much defense to win the North as you think. It just takes staying healthy and having a decent schedule, because there isn't a whole lot of difference between the top 3 or 4 teams in this division. With their schedule, Colorado is far from a stretch to win this division.

 

 

DrStrangelove says:
06/01/09 11:37AM
I don't like that Josh Smith is leaving the team. And he COULD be missed. I say could because Smith was demoted and dropped down the team's depth chart during the spring. That tells me one of two things. Either Smith has totally lost his enthusiasm for the game. Or he's getting beat out by some WR's who are performing better. From what I understand, Marquis Simas has surpassed him in that "X" WR position. So you can draw your own conclusions there. The only thing that I hate about his leaving is they lose some of depth at WR. And CU may not be quite the long ball threat without him. One thing I DO know. The Buffs are going to a more vertical passing game this season to compliment their running game. So the long ball threat may be there more than people think if these defenses start keying on the CU running game too much. Which I think is going to happen. The Buffs running game is going to cause a few nightmares for opposing defensive coordinators. Especially with RB Scott now healthy. And I understand that he had an outstanding spring in catching balls coming out of the backfield. Which makes him a double threat.
bookieassassin says:
06/02/09 12:07PM
these boys are right Strangelove ........are you crazy ? ...colorado ? ...hehe
funny since you posted.....
* lose most explosive player.......off ANEMIC offense /point production team.........who just happens to be main reason their best player ( rb Scott > nephew of Smith).....was there to begin  with....to say for sure  it will have NO effect........on the production of 19 year old Scott > silly
*lose only senior on OL (RG devin head).....
* in strange move > hawkins will coach WR....almost 70 year old mentor (name?)....to coach LB's > for one year only
* col st game moved to SUN.....so now quick turnaround  > FRIDAY game at toledo
* now only have around 73 scholarships .....and will possibly face sanctions.......(either self imposed or other..)
DrStrangelove says:
06/02/09 01:15PM
The chemistry of this team is the main problem. I still think they more than have the personnel to get it done. But if Hawkins can't make believers out of them they could finish as low as 5th in their division. Nebraska and Kansas are having the same kinds of problems putting their teams together. But they aren't having any coach/player defections. So I'll grant you that the incident with WR Smith does concern me. And that DID happen after I posted this. We still 3 months before the season kicks off. Let's see how things go this summer before we jump to any quick conclusions with Colorado. I still think Nebraska is getting too much love by the media despite losing 11 starters including their playmaking QB and WR's. Kansas is my second pick in this thread. But they'll move up to first if I keep hearing some bad news about the Buffs. Like I said at the beginning of this thread, injuries, suspensions and other problems can derail these picks. I'm not a hard-headed capper. If I don't like what I see I'm pretty flexible. I'll get off of a team in a heartbeat.
GWarner27 says:
06/02/09 07:05PM
fuck Josh Smith.

...major reason Darrell Scott went to CU instead of Texas, and now he's leaving CU the year after
DrStrangelove says:
06/02/09 08:38PM
Big 12 South Predictions

 

1.Texas-The Horns are the obvious choice here for two reasons. They have the easier schedule than OU. And they don't lose as many key components from last season. I also think that Texas probably has a little more overall depth than OU this season. And another big element to this team will be the second year of DC Muschamp's defense. Last season, as good of a scoring defense as they were, they weren't able to produce many turnovers (a Big 12 low 6 int's and 16 TO's). So any kind of improvement there (which I expect after a strong spring by their DB's) and they will be very tough again on that side of the ball. And from what I am hearing, Texas may not miss a beat on the D-Line. If DE Sergio Kindle dominates in the games like he did in the Spring practices, then the Horns won't miss Orakpo. This is a team that doesn't have many weaknesses. The offensive rushing game will be the only concern. It looks like they might be going to some I-Formation sets this season with more of a power running game. But they still need somebody to step forward. If there is anything that could be their achilles heel on offense it would be this position. As far as their national title aspirations go, the one thing that could go against them is their easy schedule. I've never seen any team win the BCS title with this easy of a schedule.

 

2 (tie).Oklahoma-The big question with OU will be the rebuilt offensive line. And so far most of the news that i've been hearing coming out of Norman concerning the line hasn't been good. Between players quitting or being dismissed, OU right now is down to just 8 healthy offensive lineman. And many of them have barely played a down of division 1 football. So once you get back the starting 5, which I think is going to be pretty good, the falloff is pretty big. OU CANNOT afford any more departures or injuries. I would officially call them thin on the O-Line. And after the graduation of their starting WR's OU is also thin at that position. So much so that they've had to move RB Moses Madu to slot receiver. So they can't afford any injuries there either. Then the Sooners also lose their two outstanding safeties Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes. These are the only departures from the defense, which should be very strong this year. But those ARE big shoes to fill. The main concerns for OU this season is staying healthy and negotiating a tough Big 12 schedule. It is very close between Texas and OU. But history tells me that when Texas is this good, it's usually bad news for OU. But we'll see.

 

2. (tie) OSU-I believe OSU will be the real deal this year. They lost to the Big 3 in the South last season (OU, Texas & TT). But I have a pretty strong feeling that this is going to change this season. They get 2 out of 3 of the big dogs at home this year. And OSU can be very tough in Stillwater. This team doesn't have many weaknesses or big question marks. The only point of concern is the defensive line. But there are a few things that make me think they will be better, maybe much better there this year. The return from injury of one of the nations top recruits in 2006 Richetti Jones after a long recovery from breaking his hip, appears again to be in top form. And JC transfer Chris Donaldson, a bigtime run stuffer, suffered from injuries almost all of last season. He's back and 100% healthy he had a great spring. So if these guys grow up fast in new DC Bill Young's defense, this team could be very tough given how many points they can put up on anybody. A very dangerous team this season who is very capable of beating Texas on their home field if the Horns don't bring their "A" game. Keep in mind that Texas only beat OSU 28-24 in Austin last season. So this game could have even bigger implications than the Red River Shootout. If OSU beats Texas, even if they lose to OU in Norman, there is a good chance they would go to the Big 12 Title game anyway. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if this should happen.

 

4.Texas Tech- TT will have 4 questions to answer this season. QB, DB, kicker, and finding a pass rush. I believe the kicker position alone could cost them a game this season. Remember when Leach was so desperate that he picked a kicker out of the stands last year? Will that kid had a terrible spring shanking kicks. So now the job is wide open again. TT had two of the best db's in the league last season. So they will be pretty green back there too in an offensive minded league. That's the bad news. The good news is Leach is one of the best coaches in the country at developing young players. But I do expect them to struggle early. And their early game against Texas in Austin may not be pretty. Especially since Texas has revenge in mind for that game. But I don't think we are going to see that much of a dropoff on offense. Taylor Potts is taking over the starting job at QB with playing time in 15 games under his belt and passing for almost 700 yards.. And he is stronger than Harrell with a stronger arm. So this team could be a bigtime deep threat this year despite the departure of Crabtree. I think what will happen with TT is they'll revert back to their old ways. They'll continue to be a great home team, but they will struggle on the road. 

 

 

5.Baylor- Baylor has 18 starters back along with both kickers. So we know they can only improve. They'll need to replace a couple very good tackles off of the offensive line. That may not be easy since one of those players was Jason Smith, who went number two in the NFL draft. But I expect Briles to open up the playbook a little more this season after Big 12 teams started to key on Griffin a little more and he had less success toward the end of the season than he did in the first half. But they retain all of their skill players. So in the second year of his system I expect them to be sharper. The big reason I didn't put Baylor ahead of Texas tech is because the Bears still have much to prove. Baylor has lost 19 straight games to ranked teams. And are only 2-45 against ranked teams in the history of the Big 12. Let's take this team one baby step at a time. I want to see them beat a ranked foe first, and then get to 6 wins to become bowl eligible. Then we can talk about them surpassing Tech.

 

6.Texas A&M-I look for the Aggies to maybe take a step back on offense with having to repace Goodsen, who skipped his senior season to go to the NFL. And they also had a ton of O-LIne injuries during the spring. And this team only averaged 88 ypg rushing last season. So there are way too many question marks right now on that side of the ball. I look for the Aggies defense to be improved. But that's not saying alot considering how badly they got burned last season by these high octane Big 12 offenses. But I think their DL and secondary are going to be much improved this year. This team still has a ways to go. But they might have a pretty bright future. They had a top 30 recruiting class this year and were number 3 behind only Texas and OU. So the players are coming. It's just a matter of how good of a coach Sherman is. One thing I know this season is they have a pretty easy early season schedule. So this young team could be much improved by the time they get into Big 12 play.

TRAIN69 says:
06/02/09 09:02PM
any reason to think Col St keeps it close vs Colorado to open the season???
DrStrangelove says:
06/02/09 09:45PM
I think the game will be a struggle for Col St. For one thing, they'll be breaking in a new QB . And they lose All MWC RB Garret Johnson. Along with their good TE Sperry. That's alot of offense lost. So whichever QB starts for the Buffs, it will still be a big QB advantage for the Buffs. Plus CSU also has to rebuild their DL and LB corp. And they'll be facing the best OL in the Big 12 North. Another big mismatch. I guess it all depends on the line. But CSU lost by 21 points as 11 point dogs last season. And I'm sure they'll be at least a couple TD dogs this year. This game is usually close. But unless Colorado continues to have problems with player and coach defections or some other unforseen problems in this offseason, they shouldn't have many problems disposing of CSU. The question is what kind of line are we going to see. Anything over 2 TD's and you start getting into iffy territory.
QBoption says:
06/06/09 06:26PM

for the most part i completely agree but, dont underestimate CU's DEF @ home, they have been known to upset...

Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: DrStrangelove
Joined: August 2008
Location: United States
Team:
Occupation: Degenerate

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories

Advertisement