EddieGordo's Blog

NFL Draft 2012 Props

By EddieGordo | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 07:23 AM   20 comments
All lines available at Sportsbook.com and Hollywood sportsbook.  Unfortunately all of these are capped @ $100 apiece right now, but if you pull some strings they will let you get bets down at both books (If you don't pull strings, they will not let you bet at both and cancel your action at one site).

Limits will increase to $500 on Draft Day so all of these that haven't moved too much I will bang again on Draft Day, provided Odds are still decent.   Here are bets that I've made and what the lines have moved to.  Unfortunately lines move VERY quick, so a lot of these are not available, but posting them anyway:

# Of QBs taken in Round 1.......Under 3.5 (-170)

This comes down to Brandon Weeden.  I have good info that says there is no way he cracks first round.  Assuming Luck/RG3/Tannehill only guys who go round one.  This has moved to -250 as of rignt now.


Who will be drafted first......Whitney Mercilus +115/Stephen Gilmore -130

Gilmore is shooting up draft boards and rumor has it he could easily be a top 10 pick.  Mercilus is lumped in with a group of pass rushers all of similar caliber (Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, Quinton Coples) the proliferation of which will certainly cause some of them to slide to mid 20's where I predict Mercilus ends up.   Gilmore moved to -160 last time I checked and it's currently off the board which is a good sign.  If it comes back, bang Gilmore.


Will Miami Dolphins select Tannehill First round?  Yes = -170/No +130

Browns aren't gonna take him 4.  They might try and trade up from 22 if he slides to like 11 or so, but that won't happen.  Dolphins need Tannehill to give the fans a bone.  They struck out on Peyton, Flynn, RG3 basically every possible decent QB they could have had this off-season.  Please don't tell me they are gonna enter next season with David Gerrard and Matt Moore as 1 and 2.  Dolphins need Tannehill as much as any team needs any player in this draft.  Wish I had gotten this at better value, but its gonna happen.  Will def be adding more to this on draft day.

Kendall Wright........Over pick 22.5 (-160)

Very deep WR draft.  Looks like Mike Floyd will still be around in the 15-20 range and NO_ONE is taking Wright over Floyd.  Hell Stephen Hill could go before Wright.  Only team I could see taking Wright is Bengals 21, if not he might slide to second round. 

Number of Running Backs taken in Round 1........Over 1.5
(+180)


Basically do you think Doug Martin goes round 1? I do.  Scouts love him and I think he goes to Broncos at pick 25.  This opened at +250 and is now at +130 meaning lot of smart action on the over.  Nice payout too. 


Will Tampa Bay select Trent Richards #5 overall?  No = -200

No they won't.  Because he's either going to Browns 4 or Rams will trade up to 4 to take him.  This opened at +115!!!!  Now at -300.  Crazy movement.

Over 3.5 WR/TEs taken in Round 1 (-200)
Blackmon and Floyd are locks.  Wright and Hill could sneak into end of round 1.  Fleener prob going end of round one.  Lot of juice to lay, but very good chance this hits.  Now at -350.

Who is drafted first.......Courtney Upshaw -250/ Nick Perry +170

Bit of a value flier here.  Scouts are unimpressed with Upshaw's athleticism and its looking like his stock is sinking.  Read MULTIPLE reports recently that he could sink to second round.  Perry's stock is rising, and he could go as high as 17 or so.  Good value here imo.

There was also a "Who goes first Luke Kuechly/Quinton Coples" with Kuechly at even money at one point, but I missed that one and they took it off the board.

They most likely will be adding some more in next few days....usually along the lines of "Will Big 12 have o/u 5.5 players drafted first round" which are usually pretty exploitable.  

Sorry that a lot of these lines have moved since I hit them, but I'm just offering advice and even though a lot of them are pretty juiced I am very confident that most will hit, as I always slaughter the draft.  Went 7 for 8 in Draft Props last year, all maxed, so hoping for another good year. 
20 comments
comment Post A Comment
wallstreetcappers says:
04/22/12 06:33PM
Why are you listing numbers you got when they arent current lines?


SupFresh says:
04/24/12 09:08PM
GL Eddie!

I wished I saw this thread earlier!
dytide says:
04/25/12 11:24PM
I like your Michael Floyd bet.


andy88c says:
04/25/12 11:25PM
watch out on the qb under 3.5 bet...nfl network (lombardi) is reporting that NE's 31 could very well be traded to cleveland or denver (interesting).
thisguyiswise says:
04/25/12 11:41PM
kalil 3rd pick -130

richardson not 4th overall pick +200
onTHEfritz says:
04/26/12 01:20AM
Kalil to be the 3rd pick is up to +105 
senbet says:
04/26/12 02:12AM
I like the Dolphin/Tannehill bet a lot.

Every mock draft I've seen has it that way.

Don't think the Dolphins can mess it up, unless some other team trades up for Tannehill which I don't see happening

It almost looks too good
gilligansisland says:
04/26/12 10:26AM

I think NE will trade one of it's first round picks but why would Denver take a qb in the first round?

gilligansisland says:
04/26/12 10:26AM
Good luck Eddie
GunShard says:
04/26/12 11:02AM
Nice bets.
phillyryder says:
04/26/12 03:57PM
"Under 5.5 Pac 10 players 1st round @ -150.......Luck/Kalil/ DeCastro/Martin/Fleener........anyone else?  Doubtful......Fleener might not even go first...."

What about Nick Perry? You suggested above you thought he could go as high as 17....

My book offered Under 6.5 @ -150 and I pounded that....
bigb650 says:
04/26/12 04:34PM
SEC players in the first round 10.5 -200 I am leaning over hardcore, but the juice is holding me back!
JackSmack says:
04/26/12 04:48PM
ive heard some chat here carolina might trade the #9 pick, gonna throw 25 bucks on it.
JackSmack says:
04/26/12 04:50PM
the trade the pick props are interesting, i mean if a #7 trades with a #4 then that is two winners. Im tempted to take a bunch of them, they are all +350 to +550
JerryWrasse says:
04/26/12 07:08PM

Dolphins management definitely struck out on Mannin. But I dont get why it is hard for people to think maybe the Dolphins didnt covet Flynn as badly as perceived. If Philbin made a big enough pitch they would of got him. And I think Tannehill does not go 8th. He'll be available but I lean Coples. 

BOL
JerryWrasse says:
04/26/12 07:44PM

Ive heard a lot of him falling but I dont see it and think a lot of the created perception of him is unfounded. I hear a lot of he is lazy or lacks production and I just dont see it. IMO the guy is the only elite de prospect. He may not go 10 but I dont think Tannehill goes 8. If Coples falls to 31 that means Ingram, Upshaw, and Perry go ahead of him. I think he is a far better prospect than any of those guys. Miami needs a pass rusher. In my eyes as the only elite one you take him and it allows you more freedom in later picks. Good chance i am wrong but the pick fits.  

A couple of things to consider he about Tannehill. He got Sherman fired. Ireland is in the BP mold and they like their qbs to meet certain criteria like being a 3 year starter and winning at least 23 games. The guy is far from that. Ireland is a guy who does deviate away from his plan. I would be shocked to see them make a very strong push for a another highly touted qb coming out next year. 
thisguyiswise says:
04/27/12 12:02AM

boom on this one
JackSmack says:
04/27/12 12:08AM
would have made a killing on those trade picks I was talking about
JerryWrasse says:
04/27/12 12:26AM
Congrats on the good night. You were right about Tannehill. 
senbet says:
04/27/12 07:12AM


Nice stuff.

the trade prop is especially true with the new capped rookie scale.

something to keep in mind next year
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