Firebird27's Blog

Posted Thursday, September 08, 2011 10:42 AM

Week 1 Plays

All plays 1 unit

Saints +4.5
Saints Under 47.5
Ravens -2
Vikings +8.5
Dolphins Under 45.5


Posted Tuesday, September 28, 2010 01:44 PM

Firebird's Week 5 leans

YTD 45-46 (-38.2 units)

Miami-OH +3
Northwestern -5.5
Vanderbilt +7.5
Illinois +18
BYU -6
Colorado St +33.5
Toledo -3
USC -11
New Mexico +14.5
Maryland -7.5




Posted Tuesday, September 28, 2010 01:08 PM

Firebird's Week 4 leans

Leans are based on Dudley YPP system.

Sides:
Falcons -7 vs Niners (I got this one at -4 in prior to Week 3 games).
Panthers +13.5 at Saints (Waiting for this to move over the key #)
Jets -5 at Bills (Jets "should" win by 10!)

Totals:
Panthers/Saints Under 44.5
Jets/Bills Over 37 (will wait for a weather forecast)


Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 09:55 PM

SMU/TCU Over Rally!

Quick Pick 6 and a huge kick return!  Let's get some points!


Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 12:05 PM

My only Saturday CFB play

FAU -8.5 against North Texas.  Write up copy/pasted from the sportsnetwork dot com.

Florida Atlantic will look to continue its dominance over North Texas, when the Owls host the Mean Green this Saturday in the Sun Belt Conference opener for both schools.

The Owls grabbed a thrilling, 44-40 decision over North Texas this past season and now have won all six matchups against the Mean Green.

The 2010 campaign has gotten off to a rough start for coach Todd Dodge and his Mean Green. North Texas has dropped its first three matchups this year and dating back to last season, they have suffered seven consecutive losses. North Texas opened the year with a 35-10 loss on the road against Clemson, and followed that with a heartbreaking, 32-31 setback to Rice at home. It got worse this past weekend, as the Mean Green were blanked by Army, 24-0.

The Owls were not in action this past weekend, but so far Florida Atlantic has performed well. In the team's opener, the Owls went to UAB and left with a thrilling, 32-31 victory. In their second contest, the Owls traveled to Detroit to take on Michigan State at Ford Field. FAU fought hard, but by the final whistle, the Owls were on the wrong end of a 30-17 decision.

The winless start for North Texas has plenty to do with the ineffectiveness of an offense that is posting just 13.7 ppg. This unit after three games has posted just five touchdowns, but has committed seven t... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:01 PM

Cardinals this weekend

Cubs swept the Cards in St Louis.  Cards come to Chicago looking for revenge.  Cards have Wainwright on the bump going for his 20th win.  Gorzelany for the Cubs and the wind will be blowing out.

Cards are the pick!


Posted Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:30 AM

Week 3 Totals play

Det/Minn 42 over 5 units

NO/Atl 50 under 2.5 units


Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 04:06 PM

Week 3 Leans

No picks yet...just early leans.  More number crunching and trend analysis required.

Kentucky - 24 
ECU +17.5
Illinois -7.5







Posted Friday, September 10, 2010 07:09 PM

Falcons vs Steelers Help

I see that the Falcons are getting over 60% (some are as high as 70%!) of the action, yet the line as moved from Falcons -2.5 to -1.5 (some as low as -1)

Would this be a reverse line move? 

Thoughts?


Posted Wednesday, September 08, 2010 01:02 AM

Firebird's 2010 Fantasy Squad

Last year's edition went all the way to the championship game only to see my entire starting team on the bench in week 16.  I guess that's what happens when you draft Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark as your top 4 picks.  I didn't plan it that way, just sorta fell into my lap. 

The 2010 team below

QB Tony Romo, Alex Smith
RB Arian Foster, Ricky Williams, Chester Taylor
WR Miles Austin, Michael Crabtree, Jacoby Jones, Roy Williams
TE Jermichel Finley, Martellus Bennett
K Ryan Longwell, Sebastian Janikowski
Def 49ers

Prediction:  8-5 regular season and bounced in the first round of the playoffs.  What say you?


Posted Saturday, September 04, 2010 01:42 AM

Week 1 Picks Sagarin Style

I am using the Sagarin ratings each week to come up with matchups that present a positive expectation.  I used it last night on FAU vs UAB game.  My criteria is that the difference between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread, which is the difference between the team's ratings, must be 7 points to make the bet.  This is my first year trying this system out, so I'm starting out with small wagers and using Labby to manage the bankroll.  I have not back tested it.  I don't wager on every game that qualifies.  There are other games that qualify.  If you are interested in knowing what they are, I'll post them.  BOL

3) BET ID=321978587 Parlay (6 Teams) 09/02/10 13:07 ET bet 4.00 to win 160.00 Result: Pending FloridaAtl 32
UAB 31 09/02/10(20:00 ET)
FloridaAtl +14 MiamiOhio
Florida 09/04/10(12:05 ET)
... [More]

Posted Friday, September 03, 2010 06:47 PM

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin's CFB ratings from the USA Today as a guide to calculating their own point spreads?  I used it last night on games where the difference was 7 points between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread.  I ended up 2-1

Flo Atl +14 won outright 32-31
Eastern Washington covered +28.5 against Nevada 49-24
North Dakota didn't cover +20 against Idaho 45-0

Tonight's play would have been Villanova +4.5 at Temple, but I didn't get a chance to get a wager down. 

I'll be updating my program week to week with Sagarin's ratings.  If anyone is interested in tailing this, let me know and I'll post some plays. 

PS  No I have not back tested this.  This is the first year I'm doing it. 





Posted Friday, January 08, 2010 07:51 PM

Firebird27's NBA Friday Picks

Heat +9.5
Cavs ML -160

14-10 Up 12.4 Units


Posted Tuesday, January 05, 2010 07:27 PM

Firebird's NBA Tuesday Play

Bobcats -3.5 vs the Bulls.  Bulls are 0-6 SU and ATS in the 2nd of BB games this year.


Posted Wednesday, December 23, 2009 02:16 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/23

Rockets +11.5 @ Magic

Record to date 10-6 Up 9.5 Units


Posted Tuesday, December 22, 2009 08:08 PM

Saints/Bucs Total Play Lean

I'm leaning the Under in the Saints/Bucs game which is at 49.5. 

I have a totals system that I use based purely on the final scores from each team's last 3 games to figure out the total for the upcoming game. 

I've capped it at 39!

Thoughts??


Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:42 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/16

Utah -4 to win 3.5 units




Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2009 10:16 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/15

I know...I'm late again

Lakers -6 to win 3 units

Pistons +7.5 to win 3 units

Record to date 9-2 up 33 units


Posted Monday, December 14, 2009 09:26 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/14

Wizards +4.5 to win 3 units

Record to Date:  8-2 Up 30 units


Posted Wednesday, December 09, 2009 10:01 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/9

I know, this is really way late.  Been a crazy, busy night.

My plays for the night:

Blazers -2 to win 3.6 units 
Warriors +4.5 to win 10 units
Warriors -1.5 to win 10units
Warriors +3 to win 5 units

Record to Date:  8-2 Up 30 units






Posted Sunday, December 06, 2009 04:14 PM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/7

Blazers -1.5 @ Knicks

Record 4-1 Up 9 units


Posted Saturday, December 05, 2009 11:54 AM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/5

Magic -5.5 @ Warriors

Record 3-1 Up 8 units


Posted Wednesday, December 02, 2009 08:04 AM

Firebird27's NBA Play for 12/2

The Pacers chase on the west coast continues...

Pacers +5.5 8.5 units to win 5.0 units

I started the NBA late this year.

record to date: 2-1 Up 3 units


Posted Tuesday, December 01, 2009 11:29 PM

Heat Backers Thread

Sorry for the late post.  Been a busy night, but I did manage to squeeze in a late game

Mia +10 5.1 units to win 3 units.

60-50 halftime so far so good...


Posted Tuesday, December 01, 2009 01:58 AM

More NBA Selections

Selections upcoming...

Heat +10 1.7 units - win 2.0 units



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