Firebird's Week 5 leans

YTD 45-46 (-38.2 units)

Miami-OH +3
Northwestern -5.5
Vanderbilt +7.5
Illinois +18
BYU -6
Colorado St +33.5
Toledo -3
USC -11
New Mexico +14.5
Maryland -7.5

SMU/TCU Over Rally!

Quick Pick 6 and a huge kick return!  Let's get some points!

My only Saturday CFB play

FAU -8.5 against North Texas.  Write up copy/pasted from the sportsnetwork dot com.

Florida Atlantic will look to continue its dominance over North Texas, when the Owls host the Mean Green this Saturday in the Sun Belt Conference opener for both schools.

The Owls grabbed a thrilling, 44-40 decision over North Texas this past season and now have won all six matchups against the Mean Green.

The 2010 campaign has gotten off to a rough start for coach Todd Dodge and his Mean Green. North Texas has dropped its first three matchups this year and dating back to last season, they have suffered seven consecutive losses. North Texas opened the year with a 35-10 loss on the road against Clemson, and followed that with a heartbreaking, 32-31 setback to Rice at home. It got worse this past weekend, as the Mean Green were blanked by Army, 24-0.

The Owls were not in action this past weekend, but so far Florida Atlantic has performed well. In the team's opener, the Owls went to UAB and left with a thrilling, 32-31 victory. In their second contest, the Owls traveled to Detroit to take on Michigan State at Ford Field. FAU fought hard, but by the final whistle, the Owls were on the wrong end of a 30-17 decision.

The winless start for North Texas has plenty to do with the ineffectiveness of an offense that is posting just 13.7 ppg. This unit after three games has posted just five touchdowns, but has committed seven t... [More]

Week 3 Leans

No picks yet...just early leans.  More number crunching and trend analysis required.

Kentucky - 24 
ECU +17.5
Illinois -7.5

Week 1 Picks Sagarin Style

I am using the Sagarin ratings each week to come up with matchups that present a positive expectation.  I used it last night on FAU vs UAB game.  My criteria is that the difference between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread, which is the difference between the team's ratings, must be 7 points to make the bet.  This is my first year trying this system out, so I'm starting out with small wagers and using Labby to manage the bankroll.  I have not back tested it.  I don't wager on every game that qualifies.  There are other games that qualify.  If you are interested in knowing what they are, I'll post them.  BOL

3) BET ID=321978587 Parlay (6 Teams) 09/02/10 13:07 ET bet 4.00 to win 160.00 Result: Pending FloridaAtl 32
UAB 31 09/02/10(20:00 ET)
FloridaAtl +14 MiamiOhio
Florida 09/04/10(12:05 ET)
... [More]