Firebird27's Blog

Week 1 Picks Sagarin Style

By Firebird27 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, September 04, 2010 01:42 AM   8 comments
I am using the Sagarin ratings each week to come up with matchups that present a positive expectation.  I used it last night on FAU vs UAB game.  My criteria is that the difference between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread, which is the difference between the team's ratings, must be 7 points to make the bet.  This is my first year trying this system out, so I'm starting out with small wagers and using Labby to manage the bankroll.  I have not back tested it.  I don't wager on every game that qualifies.  There are other games that qualify.  If you are interested in knowing what they are, I'll post them.  BOL

3) BET ID=321978587
Parlay (6 Teams) 09/02/10 13:07 ET
bet 4.00 to win 160.00 Result: Pending
FloridaAtl 32
UAB 31 		09/02/10(20:00 ET)
FloridaAtl +14
MiamiOhio
Florida 		09/04/10(12:05 ET)
Florida -36.5
NorthTexas
Clemson 		09/04/10(15:35 ET)
Clemson -24.5
SMU
TexasTech 		09/05/10(15:35 ET)
TexasTech -13.5
Tulsa
EastCarolina 		09/05/10(14:05 ET)
EastCarolina +8
WashingtonU
BYU 		09/04/10(19:05 ET)
BYU -2






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mws says:
09/04/10 01:54AM
gratefulvol says:
09/04/10 01:58AM


GL and Hope it works! 
sheeze says:
09/04/10 02:13AM
danestyles says:
09/04/10 03:59AM
You will have a very difficult time finding a Vegas line that differs from the Sagarin spread by more than 7 points after week 4.

The first 4 weeks of the season there isn't enough data available for Sagarin's rankings to be relevant.  What you will discover is that after week 4 the Vegas line becomes nearly identical to the Sagarin spread for the rest of the season.

LVSC uses Sagarin to set the lines, and nearly anyone who handicaps CFB checks the Sagarin spread for any weird lines that stand out.

Sagarin is the standard for everybody, and you won't find any significant advantages this way.  You'd be better off following the statistics and using the numbers to determine which teams are improving as the season goes on. 

For instance, if there is a team that is known for being weak against the pass, yet you notice that by week 7 they are consistently allowing less and less passing yards, then maybe betting on that team as a 14.5 home dog is a smart play.

Sagarin will only tell you what happened in the past; when betting CFB you are trying to predict the future.

D

D
drudatt108 says:
09/04/10 04:41AM
ApocalypseLater says:
09/04/10 05:12AM

on the one hand, i like all of those plays... but on the other hand, unless i am missing something, you are using Sagarin's end of year ratings for the past season... because Sagarin does not do his ratings until after the first weekend of games...

again, i may be wrong about this, but i don't think so... so tread lightly!

Firebird27 says:
09/04/10 11:57AM


Thanks for the info. I will keep that in mind.  I am aware that as the season goes along lines get sharper.  The ratings I used are for this year.  If Here are the links for this year and last year ratings and they are different. 

2010
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

2009
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

I want to incorporate other means as you suggested D to cap games and am more than willing to listen to any insights you or anyone else on the forums has to better do this.
Firebird27 says:
09/06/10 12:27PM
No parlay card winner this time. Florida played uncharacteristically bad and Texas Tech let down in the 4th quarter allowing SMU a backdoor cover. However 4-2 is a winning record, just not a winning bet.

Picking all games with 7 point or greater Saragin differential comes to 11-10 ATS (52%). At 10 point or greater Sagarin differential comes to 9-5 ATS (64%).

This is by no means the sole measure to cap games. I created an Access database to track this all season. If anyone out there has tools and methods they use to cap games and would like to share them, I am interested.

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