Firebird27's Blog

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

By Firebird27 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, September 03, 2010 06:47 PM   87 comments
Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin's CFB ratings from the USA Today as a guide to calculating their own point spreads?  I used it last night on games where the difference was 7 points between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread.  I ended up 2-1

Flo Atl +14 won outright 32-31
Eastern Washington covered +28.5 against Nevada 49-24
North Dakota didn't cover +20 against Idaho 45-0

Tonight's play would have been Villanova +4.5 at Temple, but I didn't get a chance to get a wager down. 

I'll be updating my program week to week with Sagarin's ratings.  If anyone is interested in tailing this, let me know and I'll post some plays. 

PS  No I have not back tested this.  This is the first year I'm doing it. 



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Lippsman says:
09/07/10 09:53AM

Sagarin is very good.  But I would just use it as a basis to back your own capping, not using it as the sole thing to make wagers.

Ken Massey is also very good.  In fact I pay a bit more attention to Massey than Sagarin.

Firebird27 says:
09/07/10 10:13AM
Thanks!!  I appreciate the help.  I've seen you on the forums and your posts have always been on point.  May I add as a friend?
Lippsman says:
09/07/10 10:15AM

Sure thing.

Firebird27 says:
09/07/10 12:19PM
I skimmed over Ken Massey's site and I am impressed with the wealth of data at one's disposal.  Plus I like the links to other sites that provide even more data.  Thanks again!!
Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 12:41AM

Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.

Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings  and schedule strength and rank  Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia

After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank .  Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money

Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11

Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt  Schedule advantage after one game  and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.

Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.

Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out   by how many points  team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average  rating and so forth with team B.

Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.

I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.

Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.

Works for me!

 

 

 

 

Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 12:48AM
BYU +1.5 is another play for this system.
OrionSky says:
09/11/10 02:14AM
Very informative Wizer, thank you for explaining how to better use the numbers! I will be experimenting with this for sure.
Lippsman says:
09/11/10 08:49AM

Making your own lines is the way to go for sure. Keep posting here and show everone how you do.   Give more info on what you look for and how you do your formulas.

Great info.

BostonStrangler says:
09/11/10 01:25PM



thats what im talkin about Wizer...thats gold
Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 05:48PM

Thanks gentlemen, this will be the official site for these types of plays:

SUPERIOR SCHEDULED DOGS  

 

Firebird27 says:
09/11/10 06:16PM
Thanks for bumping this thread.  You mentioned, "Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start."  Isn't that Yards per point?

This week I have both Hawaii and BYU. 
Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 09:28PM

No its

80 - 65 = 15 divided by 4 = 3.75 ppg. The 80 and 65 is an example of the offensive total and defensive total of lets say 4 games. I use 4 games because I use a last 4 away game scenario for team A and the last 4 home games for team B.

You can only get this at the end of November for NFL because teams have usually played 12 games by that point and time of the season which allows you to go back 4 away games and/or 4 home games for each team. . This is where the predictability of the out come of a game can be enhanced using seperate home and away stats. Yards per point is a different calculation.

 

Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 09:31PM
Looks like BYU was a loser, thats okay because it will produce more winners than losers over the course of a season. Its a low volume high percentage system.
Wizerguy says:
09/11/10 09:31PM

Chime in with me anytime my friend.

Firebird27 says:
09/11/10 10:14PM


Thanks for the clarification in your previous post.  Can't win them all, just want to hit 60%.
Shepster says:
09/13/10 12:46AM

Wizerguy,

Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.

BostonStrangler says:
09/13/10 05:10PM
eyeing a few....
Wizerguy says:
09/14/10 08:03PM
Guys check Auburn vs Clemson out and look at the schedule/rank difference between these 2 .Even though Auburn is a 6 pt HomeFavorite.You can make them a +1 homedog with a 7 pt teaser. You would then have to find another team to put in your teaser that has the same type of numbers. It will work.

 

 

I will be searching

Wizerguy says:
09/14/10 08:52PM

Will do

BostonStrangler says:
09/14/10 10:33PM
MTSU @ Memphis looks interesting
Wizerguy says:
09/15/10 09:31AM

Yes, Memphis looks good

Memphis : Schedule (77 ) Rank  (22)

MTSU : (50) ( 190) ....

27 pt Differential 

________________  

Auburn (65)  (65)

Clemson (47) (200)

18 pt Difff

_______________

So lets play it safe and play the  2 Team 7pt Teaser:

 

Memphis +12 / Auburn +1   

                                

Wizerguy says:
09/15/10 09:36AM

Thanks bud, Yes I will look into AE 99 System. I did not recieve your PM

Firebird27 says:
09/15/10 11:43PM


Thanks for keeping this thread alive with a solid teaser pick.  I'm locked in a 6 pt teaser at Memphis +11.5, Auburn -1.5.
jaybosstein says:
09/16/10 12:41AM
Hey Wizerguy, I See You Use The Jeff Saragin Rating Too.  Looks Like You Do A Different Format Than I Do.  So What Do You Think About Thurs. NCAAF Game With Cincy/NC St.?  I Calculated My Numbers And I have Cincy getting Blown Out By NC State, Your Thoughts?
Wizerguy says:
09/16/10 08:58AM

Its still to early in the season for me to say ..yes NCState is going to blow out Cinn.

Cinn is listed # 78 on the chart with a 68 rating. If you look at thier Schedule # its 63.5 with a (99) Rank

NCState is listed # 41 on the chart with a 76.5 rating and a 57 Schedule and (142 )Rank

I would only be guessing on who would win and cover this game. The rating/schedule/rank numbers presented to me between these 2 teams does not fit my criteria as a play on either team

Now if NCState had a 76.5 rating and had an 85 Schedule # and was a +3 home dog with a (7)Rank.. Then I would be all over NCState. +3 because they were higher on the chart with a  20 pt superior schedule #.

Stay away form that game.In fact im staying away from all of them exept for some experimentation

jaybosstein says:
09/16/10 07:53PM
  Gotcha, Just Wanted To See Whats Going To Happen Tonight Anyway.
Wizerguy says:
09/16/10 08:02PM

jaybosstein says:
09/17/10 01:04AM

Well Wiz, Could've Had A Winner Tonight.  Who You Like Fri.?

I'm Going Home To Calculate These Numbers And See What's Good.

Wizerguy says:
09/17/10 09:03AM

Yep!   Thats okay the season's early. ill check Friday out

 

Wizerguy says:
09/17/10 09:11AM

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 

BostonStrangler says:
09/17/10 10:40AM



Hey Wizer...I sent you a covers e-mail about the nfl true points
Wizerguy says:
09/17/10 11:02PM

No, definetly not, if you look at the schedule # 65 -and Kansas # 67 its basicly telling you both teams play the same caliber of competition.The 16 differentia is not that great it means nothing. This is not a game I would put big money on. It was a test only...a failed test. No problem.

Now look at Auburns rank(93) and compare it to Clemsons rank (200).Now that is a big differece 107.The important nuber to look at is the Schedule #

 

Wizerguy says:
09/17/10 11:07PM

Dont worry guys when you see my NCAA posted plays.

If there is a Superior Scheduled Dog. You will know it by my stake on he game and the explanation of the play.

Another few weeks my friends...NFL also .But the numbers will be different. A 30 pt difference in Rank is huge in the NFL. 16 is not a big diff.

Wizerguy says:
09/18/10 10:42PM

There was one prblem with that play

OSU= No defense. Sorry guys but its still to early.

However, I see my teaser play is still alive

 

Memphis +12/Auburn +1

C'mon Auburn win this game

Wizerguy says:
09/18/10 11:03PM

Memphis +12/Auburn +1  

Have to follow the dog system. We converted Auburn the med priced favorite to a home dog. Memphis cashed with the dog system.  Still early in the season. Lets keep it alive. It only gets better the more games played.

 

 

Wizerguy says:
09/18/10 05:22PM
Oregon State -20....   No test here
Wizerguy says:
09/20/10 04:35PM

do my best

Wizerguy says:
09/21/10 12:30AM

Nice job Boss. I see a few on the radar myself. Even though N.Carolina has these guys still susp. Take a look at the 30pt Schedule advantage for NC @ Rutgers.Its at a PK. Add 7 to NC for the teaser. Memphis looks good. keep In touch.

Wizerguy says:
09/21/10 11:44PM

It would be a play for me, However, it is better when the underdog has at least a 10pt advantage in schedule # and is higher on the chart .As the season progresses, these numbers become stronger. This is where you can find value in the underdog because oddsmakers undervalue that team and the media etc have overhyped tha Favorite.

Perfect example of this was last year ( I have all the weekly charts from the past 5 years and this dog system is close to 100% ATS )

Oklahoma @ Miami U. Oct 3,2009. Miami played an (82.5) Schedule( #1 Rank.)Oklahoma came in overhyped even after thier star QB went down. Miami one the game 21-20 as an 8pt home dog. Those plays are bankroll boosters for sure.

The number you really want to concentrate on is the schedule #..not the rank. Although the rank#  is important, the schedule # is that teams opponent or caliber of competition plus or minus the 3 pt for home field advantage, or home field disadvantage with the road team..The rank refers to the schedule itself. ie 3rd toughest schedule in the ncaa as a whole or the 123rd toughest (or in this case the easiest) in the NCAA

Things are a bit more different in NFL . Check The NFL ratings and look at Pittsburghs numbers and compare it to thier opponent this week, T.Bay .Pitt has a 7 pt advantage in schedule # and #8 rank vs T.Bay's # 31 rank.  Big difference when a n NFL team has a 5-8 point advantage in schedule and advantage in rank #.

In this case Pitt is the fav. I have seen Dogs with Pitts rating numbers and position on the chart (higher on the chart). Those plays are bankroll builders.

I even like Pitt -2.5 this week. TBay is a fraud,and with Pitts defense will expose them with that soft #. They will smother TBays pedestrian offense. You can tell just by looking at the chart that Pitt is a superior scheduled favorite with a soilid defense and TB is a ( oh wow..look at Tampa bay now) fraud

Wizerguy says:
09/21/10 11:46PM
Miami won the game...not one
Wizerguy says:
09/22/10 08:59AM

Looks solid,

Dont' forget to add HFA to the home team and always round off to the nearest whole number

LL 63.5 +3 = 66.5

MTS  57

Yes LL +9.5 solid, check some defensive stats for that home team.

Nice work

Wizerguy says:
09/25/10 08:37PM

 

Wizerguy says:
09/25/10 08:39PM

You could have picked those games Flat which is one of the variables of the system which I call:

Superior Scheduled Favorite

Wizerguy says:
09/23/10 12:32AM

V.Tech +3 / N. Carolina +5.5

This is the type of play Im talking about. Check both teams Schedule # and Rank #

Wizerguy says:
09/26/10 07:52AM

Dude, dont worry I know what the schedule # means.

Wizerguy says:
09/26/10 07:53AM

Yes!

Wizerguy says:
09/26/10 07:54AM

Check your PM..

Wizerguy says:
09/27/10 11:18PM

The reason I keep a summary of each weeks ratings is that toward the last quarter of both seasons (NFL/NCAA) you can go back to each teams Home/Away opponents ratings and retain an average as to what type of caliber each taem is playing at Home and on the road.

Once you have that average, you then have to find out by how many points each teams margin of victory is over thier average opponents rating in order to make a line on the game.

 

 

Wizerguy says:
09/29/10 09:43AM

Michigan-10.5

Miami -3

Vandy +-37.5

 

 10 pt Teaser -----> Miami +6.5 / Mich +.05 / Vandy +17.5

Wizerguy says:
10/03/10 10:08PM

If you guys check my NCAA post from Oct 2 I actuall took Vandy out and installed Ohio St. Sorry I didnt post it here

Wizerguy says:
10/27/10 10:41PM

Here we go guys!!!!

$$agarins Underdog Game of the Year $$

PITTSBURGH STEELERS  +1       50 unit play  

 

Wizerguy says:
11/06/10 03:17AM

\

Its panning. However, just havent seen to many plays out there this year. I will post them here once I see a play Lipps. Pitt Steelers was a nice play, but the intangable (TO) cost me the game. Had a couple Superior Scheduled Favorites a few weeks back in the NFL. Indy when they played KC and Det. when they played Stl.

Wizerguy says:
12/08/10 01:56PM

2 plays that fit my system:

2 Team 7 pt TeaserTeaser:

Raiders +12/Clevland +8.5

Flat play on:

Clevland +1.5

 

slc5610 says:
10/04/10 02:37PM
good stuff.

how did you do this past weekend? (Oct 2nd)
hoody says:
12/08/10 07:22PM

Wizer

I think you got to good picks there , I think they both got a shot at winning straight up.

johnnyflynn says:
09/18/10 05:45PM
Great stuff Wizerguy.  GL on OSU
Lippsman says:
10/30/10 10:46AM
So how is this doing so far ?  It doesn't look like many picks are being posted.
Lippsman says:
11/03/10 06:14PM
So I'm guessing it's not panning out as expected ?
Lippsman says:
09/29/10 06:44PM

Do you just look at putting the teams in parlays ? 

Firebird is correct about the Miami comment.   When you cross the 0, you really kill the effectiveness of a teaser. 

Keep posting those picks.

Lippsman says:
09/29/10 06:49PM

Wizer, do you play the games as singles also or just parlays ?

Firebird is correct about his teaser comment.  When you cross the 0 it reall kills the effectiveness of a teaser.

How many plays a week do you usually get in college foots ?

Thanks

CallMeBruce says:
11/04/10 12:07AM


I think because the Head Coach of Marshall was the OC for WV for a number of years was the real reason Mar had a chance to win, 

panic1013 says:
09/18/10 02:33AM

So the play is auburn because their schedule is significantly more difficult? 

Thanks!
BostonStrangler says:
09/21/10 07:37AM
sweet  nice job boys
BostonStrangler says:
09/20/10 10:56PM
eyeing this one for next week:

Memphis= Rating: 60 (117th)  Schedule: 69 (50th)
UTEP=      Rating: 61 (112th)  Schedule: 48 (201st)

UTEP opened -7...75% of bets coming in on UTEP (according to sbrodds.com), line currently sits at 10.5

similar ratings but Memphis schedule 21 pts better and 151 spots better
BostonStrangler says:
09/18/10 05:36PM


ore st: 78 rating (35th), 89 schedule (3rd)
louis: 65 rating (93rd), 59 schedule (129)

got it
BostonStrangler says:
09/26/10 01:19AM


teaser 7:  UNC+7/memphis +17.5

another winning bet here
BostonStrangler says:
10/28/10 04:32PM



Huge ratings difference

BostonStrangler says:
10/09/10 08:50AM
im going through todays slate shortly....anything lookin' juicy?
BostonStrangler says:
10/09/10 11:11AM
see a couple: temple, texas tech, tenn, colo st, memphis(again), bowling green, unc
HECTAR says:
09/26/10 05:48AM

No the schedule number has no bearing on todays game.  All it means is the level of competiton you play all year.  Take a team like Western Kentucky, haven't won in 20 plus games but their schedule # could be 1 if they had to play Ohio St and Bosie St their last 2 games

jcook says:
09/26/10 06:04PM
im sorry for the lack of knowledge...just started following sagarin...why is it important to keep a running summary of each weeks sagarins ratings?
jcook says:
09/21/10 10:42AM
ive been following this trying to make sense of it also..

so would pitt be a play on thurs at +3 homedog
35.) pitt schudule (71.64) rank (37)

38.) miami schedule (69.69) rank (48)

so even though pitt has better credentials as far as the ratings go, they are a home dog
Firebird27 says:
09/21/10 01:55AM
Just a few I noticed...

BYU    Rating 73.78 (52), 79 Schedule (5)
Nevada Rating 80.13 (25), 62 Schedule (115)

BYU +5.5

Colorado State Rating 57.22 (147), 74 Schedule (23)
Idaho          Rating 68.58 (75),  59 Schedule (138)

Colorado State +7

North Carolina Rating 72.41 (58), 82 Scheudle (3)
Rutgers        Rating 73.33 (53), 52 Schedule (178)

Pk'em

San Diego State Rating 70.4 (80), 51 Schedule (182)
Utah State      Rating 61.15 (108), 72 Schedule (36)

Utah State +7.5
Firebird27 says:
09/17/10 01:59PM


Just so I understand the pick according to the Sagarin numbers:

Southern Miss
Rating 70.1 (67.09 + 3.01 for HF)
Sched Rating 65
Sched Rank 87

Kansas
Rating 70.45
Sched Rating 67
Sched Rank (71)

The Sched Rank difference of 16 is what jumps off the page.  Is that one of the factors in taking Kansas +6 tonight?
Firebird27 says:
09/22/10 03:01PM
ULL D dominated Arkansas St on the ground holding them to 18 yards on 19 carries, however, got burned for 438 yards through the air.  Ark St is more of a passing team.  Ark St gained 184 of those passing yards once they were down 31-7 going into the 4th quarter.

ULL D did force 3 turnovers and got 10 points off them, however,
ULL D is suspect against the big play allowing TD of 65 yards. 

I don't like ULL special teams.  ULL Kicker missed a FG and had one blocked in the 4th quarter.  Ark St turned those momentum swings into 2 4th qtr TDs.

Middle Tenn St won't have Dasher at QB.  He is still suspended.  Their QBs have struggled in losses to a bad Minnesota team and a very bad Memphis team.  Middle Tenn St running game avg 2 yards per carry against Memphis.

Keys for ULL:

Stop the run
Force MTSU QBs to beat you
Force Turnovers on D
Don't let up in the 4th Qtr
Firebird27 says:
09/22/10 12:17AM
Here's another one...

Louisiana-Lafayette Rating 63.77 (111), Schedule 68 (59)
Middle Tenn St       Rating 56.93 (135), Schedule 55 (159)

Louisiana-Lafayette at Home +2.5

This looks like a good one for a teaser.
Firebird27 says:
09/29/10 01:57PM
Like the Vandy pick even without the additional 10 points.  Michigan winning SU over Indiana is highly probable.  Miami and +6.5 makes me nervous, would like to see that go over the key #.

BOL
Firebird27 says:
11/11/10 12:02PM
Teasing ECU +8.5 and North Carolina +10
jaybosstein says:
09/23/10 11:10PM
So Wiz, Who Do You Like In The TCU/SMU Game Fri.?

Even Though My Numbers Projected A Pitt Win, I Was Wondering If You Had Any Additional Info. On This System Finding Underdogs Cuz The System Is Always Going To Spit Out The Favs Winning?

jaybosstein says:
09/17/10 10:24PM
  My Numbers Told Me Southern Miss. & California
jaybosstein says:
09/17/10 10:25PM
  My Numbers Told Me Southern Miss. & California
jaybosstein says:
09/18/10 11:39PM
Man, Wish I Would've Seen This Before I Put In The Bet.  The Play Told Me That Auburn Should've Covered, Maybe You Could Put Me On Game About This Dog System!
JFISH says:
09/18/10 11:43PM

WIZER, anything for the NFL tomorrow, shoot me a message would love to shoot around a few games back and forth...

JFISH says:
09/26/10 03:44AM
could anyone please let me have a copy of the Sargarin week 1 NFL ratings. Thanks alot
JFISH says:
10/30/10 02:43AM
wizer you gonna play the ML to??
JFISH says:
09/29/10 10:34PM
love this stuff wizer. Great job buddy. always looking for an angle.
JFISH says:
10/09/10 11:40AM
i love TEN, just way to many points
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