Fpronk's Blog

Posted Thursday, January 15, 2009 12:39 PM



Away:  Cleveland [26-10 ATS]
Home:  Chicago [17-22 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: United Center

The Cavs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 5.0 - 10.5. The Bulls on the other hand are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 and are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are also 2-50 at home following a SU win this year.


The Cavs are playing on 2 days rest and the Bulls had to travel back late last night after their big win in Toronto for tonight's game. The Cavs are 6-2 ATS on 2 days rest averaging 108.6 ppg while giving up only 90.6. Cleveland DEF is key in tonight's match up. If they are able to hold the Bulls to under 93 points they will win this game SU and get the ATS Cover. Look for the Cavs to win this game by 12 or more.


With the Cavs playing as hot as they are ATS and SU its hard not to play them tonight given the facts mentioned above. Good Luck!


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Posted Wednesday, January 14, 2009 10:28 AM

::: Wednesday College Hoops - 3 Big Plays :::

Maryland @ Miami

Miami plays 8-9 players at least 15-20 minutes each. Their rotation of players in and out of the game will be too much for Maryland to handle. Look for McClinton to have a big game.



Syracuse @ Georgetown

Syracuse consistently plays Georgetown tough year in and year out winnning the last 8 of 10 by 6.5 points. Syracuse is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in the last 4 as underdogs. Giving them 6 points is too many in this match up.   Syracuse +6


Wake Forest @ Boston College

Wake Forest will not be overlooking BC tonight as many of you will be thinking. Wake is well awate that BC beat NC and will be ready to dominate this game and give Clemson something to think about on Saturday.

Jeff Teague is one of the best players in the country and will be ready to play tonight. Look for another 30 point performance from this kid as he has great range. The Deacons are big up front and will control the boards and this will be the difference in the game.

Wake Forest -4

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Posted Tuesday, January 13, 2009 01:34 PM

::: Tuesday NBA - Cleveland @ Memphis :::

Cleveland looks to keep pace with Orlando, Boston, and LA as the only 30 win teams in the league. The Cleveland Cavs have not fared as well on the road as they have at home but they are still 10-6 away from the Q. Cleveland has won five straight over Memphis, who have lost three in a row and 11 of 13. Their last win over the Cavs came in 2005 when they beat the Cavs 113-106. The Grizzlies lost 103-82 to Toronto on Saturday and it marked the fifth time in six games they've been held below 90 points. The Cavs will keep this team under 90 points one more time and should be able to score close to 100.

The Grizzlies are 2-3 ATS on two days rest averging 88.6 ppg and allowing nearly 101. However, the Cavs, on 3 days rest the Cavs are 3-0 ATS this year scoring 98.7 ppg while allowing just 80.7 per game. And they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when playing on three days rest.

CAVS -8.5


Posted Thursday, January 08, 2009 12:49 PM

::: BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - What's the Best Play? :::

Everyone and their brother on Florida minus the points. I read a lot about the Sooners getting blown out from Florida backers and it being a close game from OU backers.

Most everyone on these boards felt the same about Texas and Ohio State...and many here feel the same about Florida rolling OU. I'll be honest and say I have no allegiance to either school and I am actually leaning towards Florida.

Then I asked  myself, "Why do I like Florida? Maybe I like Florida because they pounded my Buckeyes just like LSU pounded OSU and and now I think the SEC is better then everyone else.  Geez, even Ole Miss beat Tech. I think, “Wow, Florida will run the Sooners right back to Oklahoma.”  Then, Bama who lost by 11 to the Gators got embarrassed by the only undefeated team in the country. How good is Bama? "


Then there is the Heisman data that some posted in the games thread...I'll admit I don't have time to verify but it looks abou right.


Heisman winners are a combined 2-9 in bowl games involving No. 1 vs. No. 2.


In bowl games between No. 1 vs. No. 2 in The Associated Press poll, Heisman winners are 2-7.


In national title games involving teams ranked 1-2 in the... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 06, 2009 12:55 PM


Away:  Ball State [9-3 ATS]
Home:  Tulsa [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Ladd-Peebles Stadium

Weather: Game Forecast calls for rain (60%) and winds from 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.


Team Leaders:

Ball State:
Passing: Nate Davis (3442)
Rushing: MiQuale Lewis (1701)
Receiving: Briggs Orsbon (767)

Passing: David Johnson (3866)
Rushing: Tarrion Adams (1316)
Receiving: Brennan Marion (1112)


What really concerns me here is the fact that Tulsa gives up 29 ppg. Sure, they score 47 per outing but have the played any decent defenses? Reminds me of Texas Tech...scored a lot of points, gave up a lot of points, won a lot of games, but when it came down to it and they played a good team with a good defense they lost. Same applies for Mizzou and Ok State. Texas only scored 24 points and nearly lost before scoring a game winning TD with 16 seconds left. I don't think Ball State's DEF should be overlooked. They have allowed only 18 ppg while scoring nearly 37 ppg.


Now, a concern I have for Ball State is the coaching situation. Will these kids play hard? Not care? What will their mind set be? Weather will also be a key factor w... [More]

Posted Monday, January 05, 2009 04:45 PM

*** Fiesta Bowl - Why Ohio State Wins ***

I've been busy researching this game and being a Buckeye fan I didn't want to risk wagering against the Buckeye's and cheering for Texas under my breath. However, I did some research on both teams. DEF, SOS, Conference play, etc. Both teams are solid...Texas a better passing team but a weaker DEF. Ohio State a better rushing team with a better DEF. I read a lot about how good Texas's defense is and how they are underrated, so I wanted to see if that was true. I found out that few teams actually ran the ball against the Long Horns. One team in particular did so quite well. Below is a copy of my post from the games thread....   "Just to let everyone know, Baylor has a Freshman QB of their own named ROBERT GRIFFIN. He ran for over 100 yards on this same Texas DEF just a few weeks back and the don't have a running back anywhere close to as dominant as Beanie Wells. Listen to me folks...I know I am a HOMER but this is crucial information on how and why the Buckeyes cover this game. They are going to pound the ball, run trick plays, and embarrass Texas. Texas won't know what's coming and will look completely lost.   I guess another question you can ask yourself is can the Buckeyes D slow down Colt McCoy. Sure, this kid is a good QB but the Buckeyes have very good linebackers and corners...come on, admit that "The" Ohio State University is one of the better breeders of NFL players. These Seniors aren't overlooking this game for the NFL as someone mentioned... [More]

Posted Friday, December 26, 2008 12:18 PM

::: FAU vs. Central Michigan - Motor City Bowl :::

Central Michigan is essentially playing a home game tonight and FAU will have very few fans at Ford Field for this game. Florida Atlantic has lost four of its last six road games, and their two wins were by a combined five points. They have been unimpressive away from Florida and I don’t think that they are going to show up in this one. Florida Atlantic is a nice story under Howard Schnellenberger, but they are not as good as most of the teams that Central Michigan has faced, and their terrible defense that has allowed 29.3 points and a whopping 401.5 total yards per game makes for a nightmarish match up vs. someone as talented and versatile as Dan LeFevour.


I don't see this game being a shoot out either...sure FAU will get a couple scores but struggle scoring on the road...I understand Central Michigan doesn't have the greatest DEF but they have played a better schedule than FAU and this will be evident tonight. FAU is averaging  a little over 13 ppg on the road so I don't see them putting up more than 24 points here. Due to the proximity to Central Michigan and for the fact they have played on this field in the past I am treating this as a home game for the Chippewa’s were they are averaging about 24 ppg, but this porous FAU DEF will probably give up 35 - 41 points.



Central Michigan -7 Under 69... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 07, 2008 01:24 PM

My response to my Stalker.... :)

You can read his entry in the Baltimore/Washington thread... http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=65&sub=100304895 Not sure why he posted it here but if you're bored you can read it if you want.   My response....   I deleted one post before the game started....the lakers over...I didnt bet it and deleted it THAT NIGHT...I'm sorry oh holy one...MR RSI..I didnt know that was against the rules when I signed up. I must have missed it in the rule book.   This is too funny that you spend all morning writing about me and my plays....   Yes, I am 39 and I am a immature SOB. Who really cares? Oh, you do... again...   Now you talk about 18 year old kids and post counts. You sound like my 9 year old niece. I bet my dad can kick your dads ass...   I have anger management issues... I can be a prick but I don't bash other peoples plays. I may argue or disagree with someone but I have never and will never bash a pick. The only time I am an ahole is when I have to, well, I dont have to but rather I choose to defend myself from fools like you.  I think most people will agree that you have real issues and its kinda creepy they way you're stalking me.   My RSI rating that you like to talk about is shitty, yes...I see you are the man on wagerline. With your 22 red stars!! I make picks in there for the hell of it in the beginning of the week. I don't do any reseach but I randomly make... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 26, 2008 03:31 PM

:: NCAAB Wednesday Winning Plays ::

Hey all, I am on vacation and don't have much time for a write up but these are the games that I feel have the best chance of being winners today.

Texas -11

Richmond -3.5

Cleveland State -5

Eastern Washington +15

Northern Colorado +1.5

Good Luck on your plays!!


Posted Monday, November 24, 2008 06:57 PM

::: Packers @ Saints Monday Night Football :::

Green Bay's last two losses were against Tennessee and Minnesota. The Titans put up 170+ rushing yards and the Vikings put over 200 yards. New Orleans averages 91 ypg on the ground.

New Orleans receivers are banged up and will have to depend on Colston (what have you done for me lately), Shockey (he hasn't done much since coming back), and Lance Moore who has been the lone standout on this NO team. Green Bay is 3rd in the league against the pass and should be able to handle the receiving threat of the Saints as long as the D-Line contains run.
The OVER seems like the logical play but if you're on GB don't you want their DEF to step up? I can see GB posting 27-34 but then you need 20-27 from New Orleans in order for the over to hit that big number. GB has only gone over this posted over twice...once @ Minn in a loss and the other time @ Detroit in a blow out. The Minnesota game was 48 until Adrian Peterson ran in a 30 yard TD with 2:30 left. In the Detroit game GB had to late picks that help drive up the Total.
I'm not sure I have a play on the TOTAL at this moment but these stats make me slight lean on the UNDER. Two high scoring offenses don't always lead to shoot outs.

Posted Sunday, November 23, 2008 05:05 PM

::: Colts @ Chargers :::

At home San Diego is a different dog, especially on prime time TV. You have to remember that when they played Buffalo they went cross country, then the flew out of the country to play NO...thats two tough games back to back for any NFL team to play.
They beat a good Patriots team, a good Jets team, and lost their opener to the Panthers. If anyone remembers that game it was a time expiring TD for Carolina. :ast week the Chargers played the best DEF in the NFL and their own DEF played well...holding PITT to 11 points...and a near victory. This team could easily be 7-3.
The Chargers are not getting any credit....so, I'll take them minus the points.
San Diego Super Chargers -2.5

Posted Friday, November 21, 2008 04:20 PM

TECH TECH @ OKLAHOMA...Am I the only who feels this way?

Doesn't anyone smell a rat? OK was giving 7 points to Texas and lost SU. Now, the books are giving TECH +7...hmmm... and look what happened...the PUBLIC is all over the TECH +7. I couldn't agree more with most that TECH has looked awesome...they are a well oiled machine. The offensive line is big and protects Graham Harrell well. But why +7 and not +3.5??
Personally, I think a lot of big money came in on OK at -6/-6.5 when the line opened and enough small wagers are on the other side to keep it at 7.

Posted Friday, November 21, 2008 12:44 PM

::: Friday NCAAF -- Buffalo @ Bowling Green :::

Away:  Buffalo [6-3 ATS]
Home:  Bowling Green [6-3 ATS]

Game Time: 6:00 PM
Stadium: Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/17/07 - BGREN 31 vs. BUFF 17
09/09/06 - BUFF 40 vs. BGREN 48
10/15/05 - BGREN 27 vs. BUFF 7

6 - 4 (60%) this week on Football.  9-4 (69%) overall (includes Teasers and Parlays)

I've watched both these teams play this year and really like the way Buffalo has been playing as of late. In the Akron game they gave up a late TD w/ 23 sec. left that sent the game to OT, but they held the Zips to 17 to points up till that point and Akron was averaging almost 30 points a game at home (none of which went to OT).

James Starks is the man...what more can I say about this kid? I think the Bulls run game will be the deciding factor tonight and I see this kid having a big night and the Bulls eat the clock and keeps BG's offense on the bench.

I don't see both teams scoring 30+ points tonight unless it gets to OT, but I'll take my chances that doesn't happend. Everyone will be on the MAC over but I think the total will be close to the posted number of 55. 27-20 or 24-20..weather should not be a factor tonight but it will be very cold.   Because I think the total will be close I also like the 7 point teaser here...Buffalo +11.5 and UNDER 62.5 I don't have a play on the UNDER yet because I am waiting for it to get close to... [More]

Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 11:22 AM


I am undecided on this game but what concerns me the most is how anyone thinks Cincinnati will score 17 points against a PITTBURGH DEFENSE that allows just 15 points a game. In their losses at home this year to the COLTS and GIANTS Pittsburgh gave up 24 and 21 points respectively...but we can all agree CINCI's offense is not even close to these two teams.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has yet to throw TD on the road and I think that task gets a little harder in front of a hostile crowd in PITTSBURGH. PITT’s def allows just 67 rushing ypg which means they will need to throw the ball. Here comes another problem...Cinci has allowed a league leading 38 sacks and last week against Philly Fitzpatrick was sacked 8 times. When Pittsburgh and Cincinnati played earlier this year Fitzpatrick was sacked 7 times. I don't see the pressure letting up tonight...we can probably expect to see a ton of pressure and 4-5 sacks.

So, now the question becomes how many points can the Steelers put up...Well, we all now how much the Steelers love to play hard nosed, grind it out football....run, run, run, pass. I don't expect high scoring game and everyone seems to be on the OVER, but if Cinci can't get into the endzone and are limited to FG's then Pittsburgh needs to put up at least 25 points in order to cover. IMO Cinci doesn't score more than 13 points to night and would be lu... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 18, 2008 03:25 PM


When I first started looking at this game I thought…wow, for a crap MAC game this is a hard game to cap. But then I dove into it a little deeper.


First, you have a NIU team that’s coming off an OT loss at home. I had NUI in that game because I was fooled by their DEF stats. Sure, they came back and sent the game to OT but they had no chance in this game. They got extremely lucky and if they hadn’t been at home probably wouldn’t have gotten as close as they did. But, in this NIU/CM game what, or shall I say who, was the deciding factor in that game? Dan LeFevour…he through for 188 yards and 2 TD’s, but more importantly he ran for 121 yards and 2 TDs. As a team, CM ran for over 244 yards.


Then I looked at the game Kent State game last week.  Kent got off to a great start against TEMPLE going up 21-3 only to let Temple and Adam DiMichele get back into that game. DiMichelle had 3 TD passes over 30 yards (1 of them 51 yds).  These three big plays helped Temple, the preseason favorite to win the MAC East, stay in a game they should have lost by at least 10. Julian Edelman and Eugene Jarvis rushed for 59 times for over 325 yards in this game. Kent State controlled the clock for over 36 minutes, went 8 for 15 on 3rd conversions, and had 27 first downs compared to 16. NIU gave up 4.9 yards a carry but also let Central Michigan convert 9 of 1... [More]

Posted Monday, November 17, 2008 11:22 AM

Browns vs Bills MNF

I have finally realized no matter how much I look at game it really doesn't matter. The players don't have control of the outcome...the refs do...each week there are bad calls that go both ways...some effect the outcome and some don't but we are all just guessing and hoping to be on the opposite side of the bad calls.
I hope I got it right tonight...a winner is always nice.

My Pick:
Browns +5.5
Under 41.5


Posted Sunday, November 16, 2008 10:21 PM


Read this article....they admit TD should have counted. We got ripped off.

Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2008 12:25 PM

$$$ Thursday Night Football Winner and O/U - Central Michigan @ NIU $$$

How good is NIU's DEF? Sure not all their competion as been steller but NIU is allowing 9 points a game at home...that's good DEF no mater who you're playing. Central Michigan on the other hand is averaging approx. 27 points a game on the road...downside...they give up about 35 points on the road and NIU scores 30 at home.

NIU has played 4 night games (7pm or later start) this year and lost them all...this accounts for all four of their losses.  Now, all these games were on the road and all of them against stiff competion...even though TENN is playing like crap tthis year they are still a SEC school with highly recruited players who can play....who's fault is it they gave up on their season? Anyway, NIU lost 3 of 4 of those games by a total of 11 points.
Lost at MINN 27-31
Lost at WESTERN MICH 26-29
Lost at TENN 9-13
Lost at BALL 14-45
NIU runs, controls the tempo, 12th man, national tv, and wins their first night game of the season at home.
NIU -3
Under 49.5

Posted Monday, November 10, 2008 12:25 AM

$$$ San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals MNF $$$

This Monday Night match up is different than most others because these two teams do not play in front of a national audience too often. San Fran is definately outmatched here and this is a game AZ should win fairly easily and if the don't win my a significant margin this team will be disappointed.
Arizona's run DEF should be able to slow down Gore and force San Fran to throw the ball. On the other side, AZ's run game might have found the back they need in Hightower to balance this already dangerous offense. I see AZ winning the game by at least 14. I'm gonna keep an eye on this game and do a little more analysis so check back for my final play or give your opinion.
Early lean AZ  -9.5 and Over 47

Posted Thursday, November 06, 2008 10:57 AM

$$$ Browns vs. Broncos Winner and O/U $$$

Browns Stadium will be rockin' for the NFL's first Thursday Night match up and let's not forget Brady Quinn's first start as a Brown. The Browns have scored 62 points in their last two home games against the Ravens # 2 DEF and the Giants # 3 DEF. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 2-8 in their last 10 SU and 1-6 ATS the spread in their last 7 road games and 3 - 12 ATS in their last 15. The Broncos have also given up 74 points in their last two road games. The Browns should be able to establish the run and create a passing attack. Braylon finally steps up and starts making catches now that his QB is in.


I am going with the Browns -3 and over 46. I think the OVER will be decided more by how many points Cleveland scores as I don’t know if Denver will capable of scoring more than 17 tonight.


:: Prediction ::


Browns 34

Denver 17


Browns -3




... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 05, 2008 01:28 PM

$$$ Wednesday Night MAC WINNER and O/U $$$

Both teams haven't played since October 25 but I think this will benefit Ball State more because they are playing at home and this is a nationally televised game that will allow Ball State to show they are for real. The Cardnial offense should control this game and cover by 10 or more.   Nate Davis is 50-for-73 for 624 yards and six TDs with no interceptions in two games versus NIU. He threw for 326 yards and two scores in Ball State's 27-21 win over the NIU last year on the road. MiQuale Lewis will also play well in this game, espcially coming off a game where he was held to under 100 yards rushing for the first time in 7 games. Look for a 100yd plus game here.   Ball State has played well defensively of late, allowing 23 total points in their last three games. They're allowing an average of 15.5 ppg and 13th-fewest in the nation. I understand the argument that NIU allows 13.6 ppg but the Cardinal offense will have to many weapons at home. This game is a mismatch and that's why the line is where it is...NIU has not beat a ranked team since 2003 and they I look forward to that trend continuing tonight. I strongly believe the line moves down because Joe Public starts taking NIU today.

Currently 52% of the money is on Ball State with the line at Ball State -9.5. I don't expect much more public money to be on Ball State and the line should continue drop to around -8.5 or -8.

:: Prediction ::

Ball Stat... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 04, 2008 06:10 PM


This is another example where recent game trends don't matter too much. In the previous 10 games played Miami has always been the favorite. This is the first game in the last 10 where Buffalo is the favorite and there is a reason why they will cover this spread. They have a dominate running game and a solid QB. Buffalo needs this game if they want to continue contending for the MAC East Title. I like Buffalo - 9 here but I am unsure about the O/U but I just noticed BetEd moved the number to 51. I bought the Under up to 51.5.
Cincinnati is averaging 17 points on the road and on the flip side Buffalo is scoring around 30 at home. Miami doesn't have a Boo Jackson like OU that will put the team on his shoulders and put up points.
Buffalo - 9
Under 51.5

Posted Monday, November 03, 2008 10:41 AM

Steelers vs Skins MNF

I believe the last time the Steelers played a regular season game in Washington, Bubby Brister was the QB for the Steelers and the game was played at RFK. I would throw out any trends relating to where the game is played and look at the match up this year.
Pittsburgh, has much as I hate them (Browns fan), has the #1 DEF in the league. Giving up just 236 yards a game and just 71 on the ground. Washington's offense is set up around Clinton Portis and the running game. If they are not able to run the ball well and are forced to pass Campbell will struggle and throw picks to Polamalu and Bryant McFadden.
You can also to expect this to cause Campbell to get sacked 3-4 times by Harrison and Woodley who have a combined 16 sacks. Washington on the other hand as just 10 sacks as a team. The pressure will not be the same for Big Ben and the Steelers. The return for Willie Parker should also be a big boost for this already dangerous offense. Not betting the O/U but early lean is on UNDER. Don't be surpised if the Steelers win here by 10.
Pick:    Steelers +2

Posted Friday, October 31, 2008 11:33 AM

$$$ Browns/Ravens Winner and O/U $$$

Cleveland is a good money maker at home going 77% as the home chalk since 2004. If you watched the game in Balt you would know it was the Browns lack luster play that lost that game in Baltimore. DA completed just 14 of his 37 passes for 125 yards, 1TD, and 3 INT's one for a TD. I don't expect to see the same in this revenge game. Since that game DA has thrown 5 TD's and just 1 INT. Flaaco was 13/19 for 129 yards, NO TD's, and 2 INT's.

Browns: - 1.5 and OVER 36

Posted Thursday, October 30, 2008 11:37 AM


  UNDER 63.5 looking like the play.   Key Factors for UNDER

Rain (80%) and wind (15-17mph) expected all day on Saturday.

Under 5 -2 in last 7.


@ California (Schedule)
Saturday, November 1, 2008

Event Day Forecast for Nov. 1

Daytime High:62°F
Overnight Low:53°F
Probability of Precipitation: 80%
Wind: From the South at 17 mph
... [More]

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