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::: GMAC BOWL - TULSA vs BALL STATE :::

By Fpronk | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, January 06, 2009 12:55 PM

61 comments

Away: Ball State [9-3 ATS]
Home: Tulsa [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Ladd-Peebles Stadium

Weather: Game Forecast calls for rain (60%) and winds from 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/local/36618?lswe=36618&lwsa=WeatherLocalUndeclared&from=searchbox

Team Leaders:

Ball State:
Passing: Nate Davis (3442)
Rushing: MiQuale Lewis (1701)
Receiving: Briggs Orsbon (767)

Tulsa:
Passing: David Johnson (3866)
Rushing: Tarrion Adams (1316)
Receiving: Brennan Marion (1112)

What really concerns me here is the fact that Tulsa gives up 29 ppg. Sure, they score 47 per outing but have the played any decent defenses? Reminds me of Texas Tech...scored a lot of points, gave up a lot of points, won a lot of games, but when it came down to it and they played a good team with a good defense they lost. Same applies for Mizzou and Ok State. Texas only scored 24 points and nearly lost before scoring a game winning TD with 16 seconds left. I don't think Ball State's DEF should be overlooked. They have allowed only 18 ppg while scoring nearly 37 ppg.

Now, a concern I have for Ball State is the coaching situation. Will these kids play hard? Not care? What will their mind set be? Weather will also be a key factor when making a play ATS and the TOTAL. Which team will play better in these conditions? There has been major line movement for this game too, the opening line was Tulsa +3 and is now Ball State +3. Did the sharps come in early in this line or is the public so enamored with the high scoring Tulsa offense?

I believe Ball State has a better pass DEF and a run game that will be able to control the pace of play. After doing some initial research I also noticed that Tulsa gives up big plays both on the ground and through the air. With that said, my early lean is Ball State +3 and UNDER 74.

I am going to some more research before making my final play. Any input on either team is welcomed. Good Luck

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61 comments

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insatiable says:

01/06/09 12:57PM

richardtonsj says:

01/06/09 12:58PM

finally we agree on something Pronk!

Good luck man!

Tricky_Doomsday says:

01/06/09 01:02PM

HotRoute says:

01/06/09 01:06PM

gl on whatever you play tonight

landis1717 says:

01/06/09 01:16PM

looks like we're the minority on this one.

kltrd007 says:

01/06/09 01:25PM

GL Fronk

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:10PM

We're on opposite sides again tonight. All is good though.

Like I did last night with Ohio St, I think Ball St will get their points. But so will Tulsa. In any bowl matchup my theory really is what offense is better. Becase with the long rest and unmotivated play, you tend to see weak defense, sloppy play, etc. So, I like the team that can score points (Prob why I favor the over in these games as well which was disastrous early on),

I got it at 2 1/2, so to be honest, I don't think Tulsa needs a stop to win and cover. Because they will abolsutely not be stopped.

Brady Hoke being goen damages an already crippled Cardinal defense. Let's hope the fav can show up tonight and put their share of points on the board. Davis is a nice qb and Lewis is very elusive but don't discount Johnson and Adams. They will be more motivated following their conference disappointment and I think that they stay on the field longer and capitalize more often. Ball St will turn it over once, or twice and the coach may botch a decision to go/ not go on a 4th down and those possessions will be the difference.

Tulsa 48-31

Good Luck

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:18PM

I understand their defensive numbers look ok on paper but many of the MAC teams were down this year.

Buffalo scored 42 pts but were aided by many turnovers, so we won't pin that on the defense.

But Dan Lefevour threw for 345 yds on them, Drew Willy had 3 passing Td's, 250+ yds to a bad Dan Radaubaugh team in Miami (OH), 300 + yds to Schmitt and E Mich.

They also have a handful of 150 yds rushing allowed to MAC teams, not including over 250 yds rushing allowed to Indiana.

Listen, their defense is towards the top of that conference and doesn't necessarily deserve to be grouped with some of the others there but at the end of the day, I don't think they have the horses to keep up with Tulsa. And without Hoke, I don't think they'll have a plan either.

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:20PM

You were right, well done. I even started a thread this morning to tell you so.

Who's got 3 1/2? Just curious, maybe to take a look. Any buy up?

I as well think I am on the right side but that's why they play the games.

Good Luck

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:25PM

Sorry about the 3 1/2, saw in your writing you bought it. Used to seeing (-130), things like that.

Good Luck

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:28PM

We'll go back and forth because unfortunately you choose to be combative. Why would I take time, in a response post to list stats that oppose my play?

Come on guy. You do a good job posting and I am simply replying that I'm on the other side and here's why. But like last night, best of luck to you.

Go have a drink.

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:33PM

No worries, I don't mean to be a jerkoff either, obviously there is a ton of room for interpretation over the computer.

I'm cool debating but you're throwing knifes a bit brother, haha. Every post I've got you attack for lack of something. Just dont pay attention to my typos next!

Good Luck Sir, potentially I can become your fade material!

redwally says:

01/06/09 02:35PM

BALL ST.+3 GLTA!!!

Roaddog30 says:

01/06/09 02:38PM

I've been a lot better in the NFL the last 6 weeks....college I was hurting until the last few bowl games went very well (Prior to Texas, of course) but the nfl has been amazing.

Going to hit Tenn a ton this weekend...

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 02:44PM

You seem like a good guy so I will debate this game once more. I am on the opposite side and like Tulsa. I bet them early at +1.5 last week and even added a little more at -2.5. Here is my analysis which I debated earlier.

I devalue a lot of Ball State's stats based upon the fact that they played

in the MAC and the MAC has recently proven to be ABSOLUTELY LOUSY this year.

The

four best teams in the MAC were Ball, Buffalo, Western Mich and Central Mich.

Buffalo was annihilated by UConn way worse than the 38-20 score

indicates. I don't know that I have ever seen a team turn the ball over 5 times

in the first half yet still win by such a large margin. UConn rushed for 358

yards a 7.3 yard per carry average while Buffalo managed just 10 first downs

(half of them during garbage time at the end of the game) and averaged just 1.3

yards per rush. Against Ball, Buffalo not only won by 18 points, but managed 18

first downs and 3.7 yards per carry.

Western Michigan was a complete

embarrassment (that's being nice) against Rice in their bowl game. They were down 38-0 before

scoring two meaningless touchdowns. They were out first downed 28-15 (most of

theirs came on their last two drives), averaged 3.2 yards per carry and they

allowed 320 yards passing. Against Ball, they averaged 4.9 yards per carry and

moved the ball in a hard fought 31-24 loss.

Central Michigan, a 7 point

favorite lost outright to Florida Atlantic out of the weak Sunbelt. FAU moved

the ball at will with 28 first downs and 466 yards. CM managed 20 first downs

against FAU and 27 FD's against Ball.

My point of all this is that Ball's

numbers were amassed against teams that have proven to be unworthy. The three

best MAC team they faced were embarrassed in bowl games. Western Mich failed to

cover by 21 and were actually 35 points behind the spread before two meaningless

TD's. Buffalo failed to cover by 11.5 even though UConn turned the ball over 5

times in the first half and Central Mich failed to cover by 10 and lost outright

as a strong favorite. The MAC couldn't have done much worse in these three

games. In all three bowl games, the opposing teams offensive and defensive

performances were better than Ball State's performance against the same three

teams.

All in all, I think Ball State was extremely overrated. They are

very reliant on RB Miquale Lewis while Tulsa has 5 backs averaging 5.8 yards or

more per carry and 4 WR's with at least 7 TD's. Tulsa averaged 565 yards per

game and Ball's undersized defensive line shouldn't put much pressure on Tulsa.

Now throw in that Ball's head coach, Brady Hoke, who specializes in

defensive schemes, resigned in mid-December to take the head job at SD State and

won't coach in today's game. That is HUGE! Ball State was on top of the world in

early December looking at the prospect of an undefeated season and a possible

BCS Bowl game or at least a bowl game on New Year's Day and now they have to

play in the GMAC Bowl without their head coach. Ouch!

I could be wrong,

but I am heavy on Tulsa!

tmpeus78 says:

01/06/09 02:51PM

Love the Under in this game! BOL tonight!

Too2Good says:

01/06/09 03:02PM

I'm with you Ball St. should keep this one close and finish out with a win

csp says:

01/06/09 03:07PM

I just wonder how much Ball St. be up for this game after to loss to Buff

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:09PM

You want to focus in on how Tulsa did against BCS teams but at least they played BCS teams. Please don't mitigate the fact that Ball State played the lowest ranked schedule in all of Division 1, which is further compounded by the fact that MAC teams have been atrocious in bowl games outside the MAC. When you get down to basics, Tulsa allowed just 3.9 yards per carry this season and Ball State allowed 4.3 yards per carry.

In their two legitimate games out of conference this year, Ball State allowed:

Indiana: 48 carries for 256 yards
Navy: 59 carries for 346 yards

In 5 games against legitimate competition (West Mich, Cental Mich, Buff, Indiana and Navy), Ball State allowed 28.2 points per game so why is the 28.7 points Tulsa allowed against BCS opponents alarming?

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:10PM

Also, isn't their concern that Ball lost their head coach 3 weeks ago and that their motivation is questionable after having their undefeated season and BCS Bowl Game hopes deflated?

BigZman says:

01/06/09 07:56PM

Nice post Fpronk!

I'm leaning Ball St +2.5.

This line has moved 5 points since it opened.

Macwestie1 says:

01/06/09 06:28PM

actionjaxon22 says:

01/06/09 05:21PM

Wizerguy says:

01/06/09 03:40PM

Fpronk..some people just dont want to see the other side of the coin...You make some valid points. My figures show Ball State to win outright.

Wizerguy says:

01/06/09 03:44PM

Ever play football?....I have, their motivation is

...you play to win the game...in the National spotlite

Wizerguy says:

01/06/09 03:47PM

My Brother was reading your thread...he says you sound just like me.....debating games is a passion

Wizerguy says:

01/06/09 03:30PM

Like your style Fpronkie

Wizerguy says:

01/06/09 03:33PM

Sharps bet dogs also

Wizerguy says:

01/07/09 02:34PM

I was on Ball State to Fpronk.These idoits on here!!!

What can I say. Ball State gave up.Those announcers were saying Davis is going to the NFL? Yeah right the guys a loser

Sorry about the loss

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:40PM

We see this differently. How much does Ball State want to be here? They were undefeated looking at the prospect of an undefeated season and a possible New Year's day game and a possible BCS spot and making history going undefeated. They were 15.5 point favorites over a mediocre Buffalo team and lost 42-24. That's the same Buffalo team that was obliterated by UConn and despite 5 first half turnovers, UConn still won 38-20 and rushed for 358 yards. Now Ball finds themselves without their head coach playing in a low level bowl game. What's their motivation? ZILCH!

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:33PM

This argument here makes no sense. The Big 12 has been horrible in bowl games this year and I believe they are 1-3 ATS. Missouri was life and death as a huge favorite over Big 10 Northwestern. Oklahoma State was beaten handily by Oregon. Texas Tech was run off the field by Ole Miss. If anything, by looking at conferences, one could say the Big 12 was the play against last night.

The Big 10 was 2-3 ATS before last night and the losses were all against highly regarded teams.

Now with regard to the MAC, it's not that the MAC teams all lost. They were totally dominated in all 3 bowl games this year yet Buffalo beat Ball by 18 and CMich was within a TD.

Ball had the lowest strength of schedule in Division 1!

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:24PM

Please don't forget that the 63-7 win last year was over a MAC team, Bowling Green and now they face another MAC team on a field they have played on before.

Marrion is questionable. Not sure where you read doubtful. Please share as that is something to note, but 4 players caught 7 TD's or more this season for Tulsa so it's not like they don't have depth.

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:49PM

I would post the link but I don't think Covers allows other links posted in the main forum. Both teams rank at the bottom of SoS and Ball State is 120th (last) while Tulsa is 119th. That was before the bowls started. After seeing the results of the 3 MAC teams, it has been further emphasized.

I would appreciate if you can tell me where you got an injury update on Marion as I see hims a questionable.

Ball State could win. It's just a game. You asked for debate and I gave you debate.

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:52PM

Looks like you joined the party late. I responded to Pronk's point. Regarding Tulsa, he stated "what's their motivation ...NONE...ZERO....ZILCH!" My response was that if Pronk thinks Tulsa has ZILCH for motivation, then where does that leave Ball State? I think your comment should be aimed at him.

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:45PM

wrong again...Ohio State was one of my biggest bets of the CFB season and was listed days ago in my thread.

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 03:59PM

With all due respect, motivation is huge in bowl games. When teams are looking at lofty goals like national championships and BCS games late in the season and fall short, they often come in with a lack of focus and somewhat flat. It's a solid angle.

Two games I bet using that angle were Northwestern against Missouri and Utah against Alabama.

You can't tell me Alabama came in with motivation and focus after thinking they would be playing for a national championship just week ago. If they played with the focus and resolve they used in their effort against Florida in early December, they never would've been steamrolled by Utah.

GameHunter says:

01/06/09 04:00PM

thanks

Like I said, it's just a game and one of us could win by 5 TD's but I appreciate the debate.

stuartFL says:

01/06/09 05:08PM

Offensive coordinator Stan Parrish is the new head man and interim coaches are actually 16-9 ATS in bowl games

If we recall last years West Virginia game (7 1/2 pt dogs) to Oklahoma after Rich Rodriguez abandoned the team for Michigan.... West Virginia pounded Oklahoma 48-28.

donny07 says:

01/06/09 06:20PM

ball st under

agent0 says:

01/06/09 03:30PM

so pissed at the weather forecast - i was waiting weeks to unload on this over. ive watched several tulsa games over the past few years - and also a lot of ball st this year. this game would have soared over unless both teams were really extra rusty in qtr 1...now with the weather, i suppose you have to play the under. im off the total now..

WinsNow999 says:

01/06/09 08:30PM

BALL STATE +3.5

UNDER 74

Smart plays Fpronk Good luck

Mine are as following =

Tulsa - 2.5 3 units

Ball St. + 3 2 units

UNDER 71 2 Units

BrassStones says:

01/06/09 05:47PM

Tulsa O Coordinator Malzhan will be coaching tonight. The game plan for Tulsa was already put into place when Malzhan was hired, except for a few tweaks here and there up till kickoff. Coach Malzhan himself said he has been waking up focusing on the GMAC BOWL every morning and afternoon, then recruiting for AU at night. I am sure this isn't going to be much of a distraction for Tulsa.

Tulsa also held ARK to 50 yds rushing or so this year. ARK had the 2nd best RB YPG at 107.2 only behind GA's Moreno at 107.7, both in the top 15 in the country, so BSU RB isn't all that to them. If it wasn't for a 95+ yd kickoff return by Dennis Johnson late in the game, Tulsa would have most likely beaten ARK. Also, ARK a few more FG's than a Bobby Petrino ran offense would have liked. Of course Tulsa has a few ARK kids who might have been up for the return to ARK coupled with Coach Malzhan's return to Fayetteville, but I am thinking all these players want to knock off a top 25 team team in BSU from the sorry ass MAC who do not belong in the TOP 30!

Umass24 says:

01/07/09 01:11PM

YEAH ONCE AGAIN......MAC BLOWS UP....just like you......blowjob queen.......

Factor says:

01/06/09 05:16PM

Love the teaser tonight.. Ball St. +10 and under 80..

Good luck on your play and good debate with lots of info that left me totally confused on who I liked now.. Great

searcat says:

01/06/09 03:16PM

MAC is badddd this year......0-3 vs SunBelt this year
Central Michigan was a joke against Rice

Ball State with Nate David is still sport caster's darling.

But, that's why they play the game...............

GoldjaBoy says:

01/06/09 05:22PM

GoldjaBoy says:

01/07/09 03:50PM

OK you guys done pissing back and forth?

We can cap these games into next week, Get a decent read on them too. ONE THING is for sure.

WE NEVER KNOW WHO IS REALLY GOING TO SHOW UP.

Andre Ware made a comment last night . he said teams are different coming off the long lay off.

He makes a great point. The bowl games have displayed this.

GoldjaBoy says:

01/06/09 06:12PM

kltrd007 says:

01/07/09 12:46AM

Good call on the under Fpronk

jeremyr says:

01/06/09 06:59PM

weather.com says it wont rain until 10 or so and the wind wont be that bad til later. anyone else hear otherwise of have any other info??

The_Pij says:

01/06/09 03:34PM

Jan 06 08:07 PM
Jan 06 08:07 PM

INTERNET /

-1

Jan 06 03:27 PM

CFB
CFB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[265] BALL STATE +3-110
[266] TOTAL u72½-110
(BALL STATE vrs TULSA)

100 /

260

JJ_Hiawatha says:

01/06/09 03:40PM

BOL Fpronk, I like the play

Sho-nuff says:

01/06/09 04:03PM

against you on this one!
BOL my friend...

Ice4Blood says:

01/06/09 05:23PM

read through some of this thread, but skipped the last half, so sorry if i repeat something that has been brought up already...

1) comparing this game to a Tx Tech/Ol Miss situation makes no sense... Ball St is no juggernaut of a defensive team... Ball St is, in fact, no better defensively than Tulsa...

2) you say "who has Tulsa played"... does this question not need to be thrown in the direction of Ball St? their two "quality wins" this year came against CMich and WMich... might want to review the performances of those teams in their Bowl games... particularly the ass-whooping put on WMich by Rice... a team that Tulsa throttled 63-28 this year...

3) saying the Ball St running game is better than Tulsa's is unfounded... both teams are pass-first teams, and both have underrated RBs... but Tulsa has a more athletic pro-style RB in Tarion Adams, and a bigger offensive line operating out of that spread offense... Adams will find the running lanes wide open...

i think the problem with your analysis is not accounting for the fact that Ball St has played absolutely nobody... this is still a MAC team playing against a CUSA team, and we've all seen what both of those conferences have done... i think Tulsa rolls... in a big way!

Ice4Blood says:

01/07/09 05:24AM

troublein2 says:

01/06/09 06:53PM

that info cant be right

troublein2 says:

01/06/09 06:52PM

wher u get that info nmd

-GC- says:

01/06/09 03:27PM

NMD143 says:

01/06/09 06:38PM

Sacks Allowed by Ball St. = 4

Sacks Allowed by Tulsa = 36

Sacks by Ball St. = 83

Sacks by Tulsa = 11

Roaddog30 says:

01/07/09 03:56PM

Good Bowl Season Pronk.

Good Luck the rest of the way.

RedDog54 says:

01/07/09 04:50PM

Fuck the idiots Fpronk! You can't win em all.

BOL in the future!

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