The Antigua Sun reported this week that the Antiguan government is expecting a settlement proposal from America regarding their bitter WTO trade dispute, and that proposal is scheduled to arrive by the end of this month.

According to the article, this proposal is planned to address not only the sanctions arising from the arbitration ruling in December, but will also the main base of contention between the countries, which is that America is not acting in good faith by disallowing foreign countries access to the American online gambling market.

The end-of-March deadline explains Antigua's recent saber-rattling. As F@S reported last week, Antigua has been ramping up its rhetoric surrounding this issue, and has been gathering support from the American entertainment industry to have this matter settled.

Whether or not the US actually makes a proposal in the next few days remains to be seen. In my little experience following international trade disputes, I have noticed one commonality: delays.

However, if the US does make a proposal, things will get very interesting.

For one thing, we can't expect the US to roll over and agree to allow online gambling. Yes, that would be the right thing to do, but nothing about this situation (or the current US administration in general) would lead anybody to believe America will handle any situation the sensible way.

But I digress...

Regardless, the question becomes: Other than an open market, exactly what else could America offer that would be acceptable to Antigua?

Money? Well, everybody loves money, and I imagine the Antiguan government is no different. However, a monetary settlement would be a slap in the face to Antigua's gaming industry, which funded this expensive lawsuit.

So it would have to be a LOT of money. More than the $20M arbitration decision, I would think. After all, it would not only have to please the industry, but it would also have to protect the Antiguan economy, which would be greatly damaged if Antigua decided to pull out of the American market - which I would assume would be a major stipulation.

And let's not forget the fact that Congress would probably have to approve that payment, which is probably unlikely.

Finally, let's not forget about the EU and Canada, who are both watching this matter closely. Yes, they pulled out of the dispute with a settlement back in December, but the EU has recently started investigating the matter again.

So any dispute would have to close the door in a way that doesn't allow the EU to jam its foot in there and ask for a similar and proportionally larger settlement.

This is going to be very interesting.