FreedomAtStake's Blog

US, Antigua to miss another settlement deadline

By FreedomAtStake | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, June 04, 2008 11:21 AM   1 comment
The Canadian Press reported late yesterday that America and Antigua will once again fail to reach a settlement in their gambling dispute before the latest deadline of June 6.

According to the article, Antigua's legal representative, Mark Mandel, is quoted as saying, "I don't think there is any chance of an agreement by [Friday]".

It's hard to argue with that statement. He should know.

I'm not really all that disturbed by this latest setback, since the June 6 deadline was just the latest in a series of self-imposed deadlines that have all been missed. I am certain both sides will agree to push the deadline forward to another future arbitrary date - let's say August 15th - which will also be missed.

Looking into my crystal ball, I see the following sequence of events panning out...

After the next missed deadline, both sides will agree that the looming elections in America will sufficiently muddify the environment for negotiations to the point that the deadline will have to be pushed back once again until sometime in early 2009.

Which is most likely exactly what the American trade representatives want... to delay the negotiations until after the elections.

Why?

Well, I'm starting to think that maybe the US Trade representatives are kind of feeling they are in a no-win situation. They know that their position is legally indefensible and serves no purpose but to harm America's international business reputation. They also know that the current federal administration will never allow them to back down and do the right thing.

However...

In 2009 there will be a new federal administration in place. And even if it is a Republican-headed administration, it will likely have the common sense to adhere to international laws and treaties. A new administration would be able to back down from this fight without losing face.

So I believe that is the American plan. They want to delay this deal until next year. Then they will reluctantly agree to follow the WTO rulings and open up the market. But nothing before then.

There you have it. The future. Bet on it.

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lanastasis says:
06/06/08 03:19PM
Why do they even call it a deadline if they are never met without fear of consequence?

As for the US sobering up next year, that's a lot of wishful thinking. I wish I could feel that way but as we have learned with the online gambling climate in the US, the norm is to expect backward political decisions that adversely effect the industry.

Finally, McBush will never be president so that's a tiny bit of good news. Obama is a poker player so maybe he will be sympathetic to the cause. And Hillary has said she supports a funded study of the industry so if she somehow gets the VP nod, this could be good news.

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User: Freedom@Stake
Joined: July 1995
Location: Ireland
Team: Florida State Seminoles
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