GWarner27's Blog

***GWarner27's NCAA CF Futures Thread***

By GWarner27 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, July 28, 2008 04:35 PM   6 comments
Welcome to my futures thread, enter any info you'd like on any team you'd like so we can discuss as much as possible to make the most informed decision possible...

2007 record: 56-41-8 (57.7%) +22.127 units

...i'm hoping for an even better season this time around.

Here's my thoughts as i did a lot of thinking today at work perusing schedules of a few teams I had interest in (i have only looked quickly at o/u #s so far, but will look more later):

Cincinnati: I got losses @ OU, @ UConn, @ WVU, and @ Hawaii for a 9-4 record... That puts a lot of faith into the new QB Grutzka (sp?), but i think Head Coach Brian Kelly will do even better in his 2nd season at the helm
Colorado: I have wins over Colorado State, E. Wash, West Va, K-State, Iowa State, and Okie State. Losses to FSU, Texas, Kansas, Mizzou, aTm, and Nebraska. Coach Dan Hawkins will be whipping this team into shape, especially with the addition of Freshman RB Darrell Scott and QB Cody Hawkins has a year under his belt.
Michigan: Losses to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, & Ohio State. I really think this team will struggle but they have such an easy schedule with Utah, Miami (OH) and Toledo at home OOC that it makes it tough to take that under. I don't see how that offense can work without a quick QB, and Ricky Rod did struggle in his first year at WVU.
Notre Dame: After a terrible season last year i got them at 8-4 with losses @ Michigan State, @ UNC, @ BC, and @ USC. They could probably beat UNC and BC, but i think on the road they'll lose more than 50% of the time. Somehow they could go 10-2 with those 2 wins, but that's mainly because they play SDSU, Stanford, Navy, and Syracuse. I do expect Tenuta to help the D and Clausen to have a much better season in year 2.
Pittsburgh: Don't like the 'stache, but i think Bostick has a lot to show this year and they do have the RB in LeSean McCoy. I think they get to 8-4 with losses @ South Fla, @ Notre Dame, @ Cincy, and @ UConn. They could beat UConn on the road, but i'm a little worried about them playing WVU with redemption on the 'eers minds.
West Virginia: Without RR I think they'll struggle big time this season because he meant everything to that team. Slaton's gone and being replaced by Noel Devine, which should be similar but it's not everything. I have them at 7-5 with losses @ Colorado, vs. Auburn, @ Connecticut, @ Pitt, and @ South Florida, but the easy schedule will help them out to get to this number.
South Florida: I got them 9-3 with losses @ Central Florida, vs. Kansas,  and @ Cincy. They lose a few from the secondary, but Groethe returns and they still have the craziest coach in the land.
Texas A&M: I got them at 7-5 in Sherman's first year, but i honestly think it could be worse. I have losses vs. Miami (FL), @ Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, vs. Oklahoma, and @ Texas. I'm really unsure about how Sherman will do at the helm, and there's no way he can get the Ags as fired up for Texas as Coach Fran did, but we'll see.
Texas Tech: I got 8-4 with losses at home against Nebraska, @ KU, vs. Texas, and @ Oklahoma. I can't back that defense winning anything, but Graham Harrell and Crabtree should have a pretty good year on the other side of the ball.
Kansas: I got 8-4 with losses @ Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, vs. Texas, and vs. Mizzou. Yeah i got 'em losing their last 3 after coasting through an easy schedule, but i don't think Reesing nor Mangino will sneak up on anyone this season after their performance last season.
Nebraska: I didn't realize how much i respect Bo Pellini, but i got the 'Huskers at 9-3 with losses to Virginia Tech, Mizzou, and Oklahoma. Joe Ganz and Marlon Lucky should have great years, but it's all about the D and how they respond to the new coach.
Ohio State: 11-1. Only loss in the Rose Bowl to Southern Cal. Wins Big Ten easily and makes the National Championship because they lost early and won late.
Clemson: I can't explain it but i have them 12-0 even with Tommy Bowden heading the team. C.J. Spiller and James Davis should be great along with Cullen Harper heading the team. They lost a little but the D should be good and the ACC is weak. One game that worries me is the starter against 'Bama, and i guess so does the game in Tallahassee @ FSU.
Kansas State: Jordy Nelson is gone, Freeman had an awful 2nd half of the year, and we (Texas) aren't on the schedule. None are good things for the KSU win total, which i have them at 5-7 with 4-straight wins to start and then 7 losses in a row before finishing the season with a win over Iowa State.
Louisville: Not a fan of Kragthorpe, and the team morale has to be low with all the players getting arrested left and right. I got the Cards at 4-8, but they could beat Kentucky & K-State at home which would get them to 6-6. Not sure if that awful defense can do it though, and there's no Brian Brohm behind center.
Kentucky: Got them beating Louisville to start, which could go either way, but i have them beating awful teams in WKU & Norfolk before beating Middle TN State, Arkansas, & Vanderbilt for a 6-6 record that could easily be 5-7. No Woodson, Little seems to always get injured and i have no idea about that D.
Georgia: 10-2 with losses @LSU & @Auburn, but they could also lose to Florida (maybe even Arizona State) having that game right behind LSU whether they win or not. I have them at 10-2 or 9-3. Don't see 11-1 despite what should be a great team that gets plowed versus too tough of a schedule.
Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson's first year will be rough. No Tashard Choice, and not many wins. I got them beating Jacksonville State, Duke and Gardner-Webb, but i don't see them winning anywhere else with the QB as it is and Rashaun Grant being their only good offensive player? The D's good but they're out of Tenuta's hands, and I have them at 3-9 maybe 4-8 or even 5-7 if they can beat UVA and Miami (FL) at home.
Virginia: Opening loss vs. Southern Cal, and wins over Richmond, Duke, East Carolina and maybe at home vs. UNC. I got them 4-8 maybe even 3-9 with their tough schedule. Also could beat UConn on the road, but 5 wins maximum for Al Groh.

6 comments
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GWarner27 says:
07/28/08 04:35PM
Florida State: I got 6-6 with

no proven QB, despite good things being said about Christian Ponder.

All of the suspensions could hurt the team who starts with Western

Carolina & Chattanooga

before probably losing #3 at home against Wake Forest. I got them

winning at home against Colorado, but no other big wins and a loss at

Maryland.

Florida: 11-1 is my prediction.

Lone blemish is The Cocktail Party to Georgia, but they ahve LSU at

home which is a huge advantage, while also skipping Auburn this season.

Maybe @ TN could be another test due to last year's whipping, but i

think not with the rookie QB.

Arkansas: Don't like the coach,

and i don't like the team without Jones and McFadden. I got the Hogs at

4-8 with wins over Western Ill, ULM, Mississippi (because they're at

home against the old coach) n Tulane. They could win at Kentucky, but i

think 4-8 or 3-9 could make it a rough year for Coach Petrino...

Mississippi: I got 4-8 with the

loss @ arkansas, wins over UML, Vandy, Samford, & Memphis. Rough

first year, but there is a lot of talent on this team especially with

Texas transfer Jevan Snead running the team.

Wake Forest: I got 9-3 if they

lose at Florida State minus the suspended players, but i think 10-2 is

a real possibility for this team. They won me the most 

of any team last season, but i think they could drop 2 in a row to

Clemson at home and Maryland on the road because Maryland MUST PROTECT

THIS HOUSE.

Miami (FL): Don't know what to

make of this team, even tho i think the Defense will be good again

under Randy Shannon. The offense may struggle mightily, but i do have

them beating aTm again and losing at home to Wake and Virginia Tech.

Iffy wins may be the aTm game, but other than that they look okay to go

9-3 or maybe 8-4 if they lose to Central Florida in a possible upset.

Auburn: I got 11-1 with the

lone blemish a loss at home to Georgia. They skip Florida and i think

they beat LSU at home this season, but they do have Tennessee

immediately after the Tigers which could pose a problem. I think the

new offense will be good with Burns, and i don't see the defense losing

too much without Muschamp.

Tennessee: I got 7-5 with the

new QB in Jonathan Crompton with losses @ UCLA (big travel and first

game against new regime), vs. UF, @ Auburn, @ UGA, and @ SC. Iffy wins

don't really exist unless they turn the ball over a lot against

Mississippi State at home, but i could see 8-4 if they steal the first

one in LA.

Arizona State: Erickson did a

great job last year, but Rudy Carpenter's bitch ass is still there.

Torain is gone, which'll hurt the team. I like the defense enough to

put them at 10-2 with losses to Georgia & Southern Cal and that may

be it. Finishing up @ Arizona and the Ducks coming in to Tempe could

result in at worst 8-4 i think.

Boston College: I don't know

how they replace Matt Ryan, and also one of East Providence, RI's

finest Jamie Silva at SS. The team will struggle i think behind an

unproven QB (i don't even know who's starting) to a 6-6 record. I see

them losing 3 at home (including one to UCF) but they have a couple of

locked in W's over Kent State & URI. They could even go 5-7 with a

loss to Notre Dame in the Catholicism bowl.


that's all i've got for now...


good luck

GWarner27 says:
07/28/08 04:37PM
...fuck. Cross out everything about UCF because Kevin Smith is no longer there. I thought he came back, but now i see he's on the Lions

...good luck reading that, i think my hands are gonna fall off
GWarner27 says:
07/28/08 10:10PM


thanks for the response, d.

...Cincy was my 3rd-ranked team last year, financially, after Wake Forest and Missouri
GWarner27 says:
08/02/08 01:57AM
thanks for the love bustin'... Mizzou was my #2 team last year (financially), and I really think they'll do well this year despite maybe my 'Horns giving them a game. I will look more into schedules tonight, and that will include those darn Tigers.

here's what i would play according to my leans (lines from vegasinsider):
CIN 9-4 vs. o/u 7: OVER
CU 6-6 vs. o/u 5.5: OVER
MICH 7-5 vs. o/u 8: UNDER
ND 8-4 vs. o/u 7: OVER
PITT 8-4 vs. o/u 6.5: OVER
WVU 7-5 vs. o/u 9.5: UNDER
SF 8-4 vs. o/u 9: UNDER
aTm 7-5 vs. o/u 7: PUSH
TTU 8-4 vs. o/u 9: UNDER
KU 8-4 vs. o/u 8: PUSH
NEB 9-3 vs. o/u 8: OVER
tOSU 11-1 vs. o/u 10: OVER
CLEM 12-0 vs. o/u 9: OVER
KSU 5-7 vs. o/u 6.5: UNDER
LOU 4-8 vs. o/u 6.5: UNDER
UK 6-6 vs. o/u 6.5: UNDER
UGA 10-2 vs. o/u  9: OVER
GT 3-9 vs. o/u 5.5: UNDER
UVA 4-8 vs. o/u 4.5: UNDER
FSU 6-6 vs. o/u 8.5: UNDER
UF 11-1 vs. o/u 10: OVER
ARK 4-8 vs. o/u 6: UNDER
MISS 4-8 vs. o/u 5.5: UNDER
WFU 9-3 vs. o/u 8: OVER
MIA (FL) 9-3 vs. o/u 7: OVER
AUB 11-1 vs. o/u 9: OVER
TENN 7-5 vs. o/u 8.5: UNDER
ASU 10-2 vs. o/u 8.5: OVER
BC 6-6 vs. o/u 7: UNDER

best looking:
CIN o7, PITT o6.5, WVU u9.5, CLEM o9, KSU u6.5, LOU u6.5, GT u5.5, FSU u8.5, ARK u6, MISS u5.5, MIA (FL) o7, AUB o9, TENN u8.5, ASU o8.5

...still a lot more to look at though
GWarner27 says:
08/30/08 12:09PM
adding:
Auburn OVER 9 Wins (-130): 5.652 units
It was down to this or ASU, but i think Auburn has the best advantage so i'm gonna lay the -130 after BetEd took this off the boards...

good luck
GWYNN8 says:
08/30/08 12:32PM
gl this year
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User: GWarner27
Joined: August 2007
Location: Rhode Island
Team: Texas Longhorns
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