Posted Thursday, January 27, 2011 04:18 AM
South Alabama heads back on the road (which hasn't been kind) after 4 days off. Collecting an 86-78 win over Florida Intl coupled with the only other Sunbelt victory over MiddleTennState 63-57 note that both are home victories. Troy from what I can tell does not like to play defense...at all. Although they did play well ATS vs. classier opp earlier in the year. Troy's pedestrian stroll through Sun Belt play has been marked by a split of contests with Western Kentucky and a 51-63 loss to MTSU.
Last year these teams played under 3 descending totals of 146-144-138. The average finish total in those meetings was 132 pts (139>132) I think this will bring value to number we get in this game especially in context to recent Offensive production vs. Defensive absence.
Troy (-4) won 2 out 3 last year against South Alabama (but they were competitive in each game). It is worth noting that South Alabama has quite a few familiar faces back from last season.....where as Troy has had some turnover. The cream of that turnover being UCF transfer Will Weathers 12ppg 6rpg 4apg (sat out last year but lookout....).
Sunbelt games usually have generously high totals to go Under. Although I do see this one being set in the lower end range. Looking to play Over estimated total of 138 (in reality it may be more like 141).