Posted Friday, December 07, 2012 07:30 PM
After a brief uptick in enthusiasm, the Jaguars are heading back down the sewer again. The overall attitude in the locker room is one of apathy and lethargy. This I know to be true.
This weekend we march out a streaky QB who is coming off a poor performance and will be without his 2 favorite targets (Cecil Shorts and Laurent Robinson). The RB will be Montell Owens who is a 28 yr. old emergency 4th stringer who has been earning a paycheck for his special teams contributions. Only 2 offensive line starters remain. Veteran center Brad Meester is hurting but will play because frankly, we don't have anyone else to hike the ball. (2 backup centers are on IR)
On the other side of the ball, we're already down 7 starters and have top cover corner Derek Cox iffy to play. Team captain Paul Podluszny has been unusually downbeat about getting "worn out" from the long, dismal season He's a trooper, but you can't keep busting your ass in vain forever.
Coach Mike Mularkey has been very subdued this week, almost defeatist. I think last week's loss at Buffalo really hit him hard. It was a game he wanted to show well in. It didn't happen.
This is a team as ready to lay down and die as I've ever seen. You need to be here to understand it.
For the bettor, the Jets are a perfectly fine team to take advantage of this week. Sanchez sounded very humble about his benching last week, and he has every opportunity to redeem himself against a Jax defense that can't pressure the ... [More]
Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 11:00 AM
New Mexico Lobos vs. New Mexico State Aggies.
First question : If these two teams secretly changed uniforms an hour before kickoff would anyone even notice ?
Second question : What correlation can you decipher from the numbers 14, 0, 0, 10, 7, 0, 7, and 3 ?
Answer 1 : Other than family and friends of the athletes, no.
Answer 2 : That is the offensive output of New Mexico for their last 8 road games. Think about it. That's 41 total points in 8 games.
Summary : NMST is bad but not NM bad. Colorado's head coach said "You people may laugh at us, but if we played New Mexico every week we'd be having the last laugh." Speaking of Colorado, NMST trounced Sacramento in their home opener, and Sacramento would go on to beat Colorado on the road the next week. NMST>Sac State>Colorado>New Mexico. I don't think 6.5 points is too much to lay in this one. One last thing : Did you notice that New Mexico got outgained by almost 600 total yards in last week's loss to Texas Tech ? 600 !
NM State -6.5
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 08:58 AM
I don't know why it took all week to see this one, but sometimes you're looking in all the wrong places.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 110/100
Titans ML 50/110
The Chargers looked like crap against a very bad, poorly coached Raider team. I thought out of the gates that SD is nothing better than a middling .500 team to begin with. Tennessee just got beatdown by one of the 5 best teams in the league and now will be rewarded with a big stepdown in talent and coaching with today's opponent.
What really tipped me off is how low this moneyline is compared to what the spread is. That's normally a sign of very little faith in the favorite's ability to win much less cover. Last week, I tagged the Lions a very weak favorite using this ML/ATS correlation and it paid off with an easy ATS win for St. Louis and a narrow miss on the ML.
Enough babbling, Good Luck to all.
Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 03:05 PM
5-1 +390Let's begin:Texas -9.5 (x2 220/200) I was waiting for this line to fall below 10 and I got it. What's up with the love of Ole Miss? I had to double check my research to confirm that Eli Manning, Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, and Mike Wallace weren't suiting up for Saturday's game. They are not. Ole Miss is back to being Ole Piss. First meaningful game for the Longhorns. You don't think they want to smack around an SEC opponent on the road to pad their non-conference resume ? Of course they do, and they've got the size,speed, and depth advantages all over the Rebels to do it. When Ole Miss' radio announcer says "I don't see a way how we can win this game, but we'll have fun trying," I believe it.
Arkansas +20 This is from a Las Vegas based oddsmaker from last Sunday "With (Arky QB) Tyler Wilson the line is 11, without him 14. Knowing how the public feels about these 2 teams, we'll err on the side of caution and start the line at 14." Everything you need to know about which side has all the value is included in that one sentence. When you side with the bettors over the linemakers, you lose more often than not.
Florida +3 I was going to waffle on this one until I heard the UT athletic department sent a memo to all students and ticket holders warning them not to storm the field after they win. This egg isn't going to hatch for the Volunteers. This is a 5-7 team from a year ago. Dickey/Dooley/Dingbat or whatever the hell the hillbilly coach's ... [More]
Posted Thursday, August 30, 2012 06:18 PM
SoCar/Vanderbilt Under 45.5 110/100
Lattimore will run wild, and Aaron Rodgers' little brother will be slinging it all over the field. That's all I've heard from the mainstream, anyways.
These 2 teams committed 7 turnovers combined last year and still managed just 24 total points. Like it or not, the defenses will be the better side of the ball regardless who's on offense.
Single unit play to start the season. Have fun and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 05:23 PM
They're getting only +110 against one of the most heavily bet pitchers in the bigs who has never started a game in this stadium. The D-backs have been scoring runs lately (22 in 3 games at a pitcher's park) while the Nats have won 6 straight over the bottom feeding Dolphins and Oilers.
Hmm... Strasburg at an easy -120, or Cahill and the Diamondback bunch at a paltry +110 ?
I'll bet Arizona +110
Posted Sunday, August 05, 2012 09:55 AM
With a bet on the Baltimore Orioles today.
The Rays offense is so bad, they got no hit in batting practice this morning.
The Rays offense is so bad, they're thinking of letting the pitcher hit and scratching the DH.
The Rays offense is so bad, they held a father-son whiffle ball game and the kids threw a shutout.
The Rays offense is so bad, Padre fans won't even watch them.
The Rays offense is so bad, Jack Cust applied for the 1B job and under qualifications he wrote "better than Pena."
Posted Thursday, June 09, 2011 01:15 PM
-130 seems awfully cheap to back a shutdown starter like Romero against the pitiful Royals. However, his numbers balloon during the day this season (1-3, 4.97 ERA) while Hochevar's improves. The Royals have a lot of good right handed bats, and they are hitting .275 vs. LHP at home this year.
I'll take the anti-obvious route on this one and back the Royals +120
Good Luck on all your bets.
Posted Friday, November 12, 2010 08:36 AM
The system is easy, the research takes some time. Basically, for the month of November, I'm looking for disparities between opposing teams' top 7 scorers of a year ago. The more who return, the stronger that team will be early in the season. There must be a difference of at least 3 players between the two teams to make it a play. The larger the difference, the larger the play.
So far, the system is 3-1. For today Friday 10/12 : 6 plays
Virginia Commonwealth -19.5 2*
New Mexico State PK 2*
Nevada-Las Vegas -20.5 2*
Iona +3 1*
Chattanooga +22 1*
Pepperdine +7.5 1*
Good Luck to all
Posted Friday, October 15, 2010 09:52 AM
A fade of Indiana in this spot. Similar situation as last year, when the Hoosiers go balls to the wall in back to back games vs. Big 10 powerhouses Michigan and Ohio State, then fall flat on their faces in the next game.
So far, they've followed suit, losing a gut wrenching game to Michigan, then getting physically manhandled by the Buckeyes. Last year, in this spot, Indy goes to Virginia and lays down like a dying dog 47-7.
This year, they are at home and Arky State is not a Virginia. But, the Red Wolves actually average more yards per game (413-406) than the high scoring Hoosiers. Both teams are bad defensively, period.
I got this line on Wednesday @ +12.5, it is now showing as low as +10 at some books, after opening at 14. Obviously, a few other bettors are thinking like I am in this otherwise non-descript, non-conference game.
Good Luck to all regardless of your choices.
Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 09:26 AM
W-L 3-3 +330
In The Bank $1330
Jags arise from the ashes last week and stun the defenseless Colts. Good for them, bad for my bank account.
Lots of opinions on the side on this game, but I love the total. I said before week one, that Jacksonville and their pitiful pass defense would hold a lot of value to the over this year. So far, 3-1 to the over.
Today, however, is a good day to expect a slow,conservative, clock killing game plan from both teams. As long as turnovers and special team scores don't get in the way (see Miami/NE last Monday) this game stays well under the number.
Today, we get the exact same number (40.5) as we got in week one between Jax and Denver. That game eeked over the total by 0.5, this one won't come close. No way the winner reaches 20.
Jaguars/Bills Under 40.5 550/500
Posted Sunday, October 03, 2010 10:50 AM
Start = $1000
W-L = 3-2 + 440
In the Bank = $1440
Rolling along with the worst team in the NFL, and making a profit every week on the way.
Today, under most circumstances, the home dog Jaguars would look like good value at getting better than a TD. But, I'm not biting.
How are you going to back a team with the NFL's worst pass defense against the Colts ? How can we expect a QB (Garrard) coming off the 2 worst games of his career to suddenly mend his broken confidence ?
I've listened to what the Jaguars have had to say this week, and I don't hear any confidence at all. This is usually the biggest game of the year for Jacksonville, but it's awfully quiet around here.
You need some offensive firepower to play with Indy, and the Jags just don't have it. If sharps bet this line down from 9 to 7.5, it was based solely on the big home underdog autoplay. It's not because they did their due diligence. For starters, the Jags are a horrible home side, covering only 4 of the last 18 in Jacksonville.
Easy One Colts - 7.5 110/100
Posted Sunday, September 26, 2010 10:41 AM
Start : $1000
Record 2-2 +340
In the Bank : $1340
The Jags to win bets lose, but I still cash with the higher rated Over the total for the 2nd straight week.
MJD and Rashard Jennings will get plenty of carries today. The Jags want to play ball control offense against this team. They essentially don't have a backup QB after losing McCown for the season last week, so they will not want Garrard spending too much time in the pocket or scrambling.
I look for Philly to be a bit conservative out of the box as well, not wanting to make things too complex for Vick. Lots of LeSean McCoy.
I lean towards the home favorite for this game in the hot (90 degrees) conditions at Everbank Field, but I'm going to go a bit contrarian on the official pick, which will be :
Jacksonville/Philadelphia UNDER 21.5 (E) for the 1st half 100/100
Jax has 10 total 1st half pts. in the 1st 2 games, Philly has 24 (21 of them against Detroit) Look for this low scoring 1st half trend to continue today.
Posted Sunday, September 19, 2010 09:28 AM
Start = $1000
Last Week = 1-0 Jax/Denver O40.5 330/300
In the Bank = $1300
It took Denver and Jax 29 minutes to figure out they could beat each other over the top with the vertical passing game, but once they did, points came quickly and the over total wins by a half point.
Today, on to the West Coast which was a house of horrors for the Jags last year, losing a pair of games to Seattle and San Fran by a combined 61-3. Coach Del Rio was quick to let the public know that the team remembers last year's West Coast disasters as if they happened yesterday and that they will be a sharper mentally prepared squad this time around.
The Jags pass defense was better at the line, recording 3 sacks (they had only 14 all last year) but predictably bad in the secondary. After both starting safeties of a year ago were cut after the final preseason game, starting CB Cox was benched in the 4th qtr. of last week's game. Jacksonville's defensive back depth is among the worst in the league, and what makes it worse is that veteran CB Rashean Mathis is the only guy who could find a starting gig on any other NFL team.
So where do we go this week ? To the well again, because the Jags continue to hold very good value to the over, because of their increased attention to their own vertical passing game, and their complete inability to prevent opponents to slice their defense up thru the air as well.
The lines : Jax opened as an 8 pt.... [More]
Posted Sunday, September 12, 2010 09:37 AM
I will give one weekly selection on the hometown team in an effort to give some insight on the team I'm most familiar with.
The Jags have a reputation of being tough on defense and conservative on offense. But with coach Jack Del Rio on the hot seat in his 7th season, changes are in store.
The Jags will open up the offense and much will rest in the hands of embattled QB David Garrard, who is in jeopardy of losing his position if improvement isn't evident soon. I don't think Garrard is good enough to be an impact QB in this league, but he's promised to be more aggressive throwing to targets, rather than throwing the ball away or scrambling.
The Jags may wind up with the NFL's worst pass defense by a long shot. They were dead last in sacks last year with a pitiful 14, and their secondary is so bad, they cut both of last year's starting safeties just one week ago.
Denver's pass defense is not much better. The drop off in the secondary from veteran Champ Bailey to the rest is enormous.
I see a game in which even with two ordinary offenses, yards through the air will come easily. The game time temp will approach 100 degrees with not much air flow. The defenses are really likely to wear out in the 2nd half.
The total opened at 42.5, dropped to as low as 39.5, and currently sits at 40.5
To start the season with a $1000 bankroll betting on the Jags, we'll begin with a 3 unit bomb on:
Jacksonville/Denver OVER ... [More]
Posted Wednesday, June 09, 2010 04:31 PM
one day after seeing Stephen Strasburg ?
Will the baseballs suddenly appear to be the size of softballs ?
Will his fastball look like a change-up ?
Will the Pirates be hungry to save face ?
I think so.
The Nationals have won the first game in a series 11 times this season. They have gone on to lose 10 of 11 game twos. So much for momentum. Let's ride the Pirate ship @ +135 tonite. Good Luck on all your picks.
Posted Tuesday, June 08, 2010 01:06 PM
Lost in the Stephen Strasburg madness is the fact that one can get Seattle's King Felix Hernandez at plus money for the first time in 15 starts dating back to last year.
His price in his previous 5 starts vs. Texas have been -205, -140, -178, -127, and -118. Tonite he is + 110 against Colby Lewis.
The total is set at 8.5 despite the fact the two starter ERA's combine to less than 7 on the year.
You had to pay juice to play veteran Cliff Lee last night, but King Felix comes with a 10% discount.
Is there great value in the King tonite ? or is the linemaker telling us that his crown has fallen ?
Posted Saturday, June 05, 2010 09:14 AM
Some good albeit risky choices out there on a Saturday, including Cleveland,Toronto, and Arizona.
However,I'll put most of my monies on the San Diego Padres.
If you don't realize that SD is playing much better ball right now than Philadelphia, then you get a zero on your homework assignment. Even in last night's loss, the Pods outhit Philly 10-6. If these guys were seeing the ball that well off Halladay, Moyer's pitches will look like Little League material.
SD is 3-0 in Garland's last 3 starts, Philly 0-3 in Moyer's last 3.
Philly still hasn't scored more than 3 runs in 12 straight games.
SD's road record is equal to Philly's home mark of 14-10
Simply put, the line is wrong, and we have a public team being favored in a spot they shouldn't be. Take the Fathers and take the money and run.
San Diego Padres 100/125
Posted Saturday, May 29, 2010 08:53 AM
is in Canada today.
8 unders in 9 home plate gigs this year
64.3 % strikes called (#1 among MLB umps)
3.13 K's to 1 BB (again #1)
Average of 5.2 runs scored in 9 games
Toronto/Balty UNDER 9 2unit play
Posted Friday, April 30, 2010 08:58 AM
After 3 weeks of the regular season, the home teams are 32-12 (73%) on Fridays. But don't tell the Dodgers.
Posted Wednesday, April 28, 2010 11:06 PM
The most exciting and entertaining team the NHL has seen since Gretzky's Oilers are gone before these playoffs have really even started. In spite of carrying the play for 7 games, and outshooting the opponent by more than a 2:1 margin, the fact that Montreal happened to be better at one position, and one only, means the wrong team plays on. This is where the NHL begins losing interest at a time they should be gaining it. If nothing else, this should be all the evidence needed to insure that in the future, the 4 best teams need to receive a 1st round bye. After all, what's the point of the regular season if this is what will happen to the flagbearers of the league ?
Posted Friday, April 16, 2010 01:02 PM
Okay so I'm a Florida homer and love my Rays and Marlins. I'm looking for a reason to back the Fish, but after a little bit of research, I think I'll pass.
For what it's worth :
Roy Halladay's stats when making his 3rd start of the season for the last 6 years (all as a Blue Jay)
IP : 49
Hits : 39
Runs : 5
ERA : 0.92
Record : 6-0
Complete Games : 4
Number of games allowing more than 1 Run : 0
Posted Friday, April 16, 2010 10:55 AM
Exhibit A : Believe it or not, the KC Royals are a .500 team (17-17) in games started by Zack Grienke since the beginning of last season. A combination of poor run support (2.5 RPG) and bullpen blowups are primarily responsible for this unexpectedly bad number when playing with a Cy Young winner on the hill.
Exhibit B : The Royals have been either leading or tied for the lead after 5 innings in 24 of those 34 games. (70%) (21-10-3)
Summary : If you like the Royals today, you can improve your odds of success by 20% by betting them for 1st 5 innings only.
Posted Sunday, April 04, 2010 05:07 PM
Winners of 4 of their last 6, playing a dead team with only 5 members of the opening night lineup on the roster. Nets lost all 3 meetings this year, the last 2 by a combined 6 points, and that was back when NJ couldn't compete with the Phoenix Mercury.
Revenge and Redemption for the Nets !
Posted Tuesday, March 30, 2010 05:36 PM
Did you know that over the last 5 days, underdogs are 21-11 ATS in the NBA ?
And who's laying points tonite I ask ?
The reeling Rockets, the 27-47 Pacers, the "wake us up when the playoffs are here" Suns, the offensively challenged Bucks, and the young Thunder on the road. This hardly impressive hit list is laying an average of 7 points per game.
I'm playing lazy tonite and blindly betting the dogs across the board, 1 unit each. Bet smarter not harder. Good Luck to all.
I'm thinking 3-2 is as good as done