GiLmo574's Blog

Gilly feelin' a 'lil Philly today...

By GiLmo574 | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, August 30, 2011 03:17 PM   0 comments

Woke up this morning feelin' a 'lil Philly today.  So I ate me a huge bowl of fruity pebbles & then dug into today's game between the Reds & Phillies @ Great American Ballpark.

Bronson Arroyo enters today's game giving up the most HR's (34) in the majors + an ERA over 5 (5.02 - 5th worst in MLB) and he'll be facing a Phillies team who is in the top 5... wait.... sorry.

Bronson Arroyo faces a Phillies team who is in the top 10 in... wait a minute, sorry.... hmmm... yep, I am reading that correctly.... well, that's odd.

Bronson Arroyo faces a Phillies team who you would think is a top the leaderboard in Team Batting and ready to beat up on Bronson Arroyo... but check out where Philly stands in Team Batting (MLB/NL):

RUNS SCORED = 13th MLB/7th NL (587 runs)
BATTING AVG. = 16th MLB/9th NL (.254 avg)
HOME RUNS = 16th MLB/8th NL (125 HR's)
RUNS BATTED IN = 11th MLB/6th NL (572 RBI)
SLUGGING PCT. = 15th MLB/7th NL (.400 SLG)
OPS/On Base % + Slugging % = 15th MLB/7th NL (.724 OPS)

The Phillies rank no where in the Top 10 in the league in the greater stats for Team Batting and no where in the Top 5 in their own league, the National League. They've been hit with some injuries @ times and short DL stints, and Philly does tend to rest of their marque players during day games, but to think of Philly you think of their pitching AND their phenomenal line-up,which now includes all-star energized Hunter Pence. Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies... well, now, the Brewers enter the mix... but you think of those teams when you think about hitting. Red Sox, Yankees, & Brewers rank in the Top 10 in all major team batting stats and they rank in the Top 5 in the own league. But strange to think that the Phillies do not apply.

So, with all the statistical break downs, it look as if I'm ready to take the REDS on the +MONEY -vs- Roy Halladay and the Phillies . . . right??

Not a friggin' chance. Phillies all the friggin' way...

Phillies RL @ -115  [4U]
Phillies ALT RL -2.5 @ +150  [4U]
Phillies *TT OVER 4.5* @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 4* (1st 5) @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 8* (Game) @ +105  [4U]

Bronson Arroyo has been horrific in his career -vs- the Phillies, and he already got demolished once this year by the Phillies back on May 23rd. Here's his stat line he received during Philly's demolition:
= 2.2IP, 10H, 9ER, 2HR, -0.35 WHIP

Not everyday you see somebody with a negative WHIP - only those who get lit up in only a couple innings of work, which happened back on the 23rd of May.

Now, here's Arroyo's career stats in 9 games -vs- the Phillies:
W-L: 1-6
HR allowed:
IP average per start:
Opponent Batting AVG: .324 (highest -vs- any team)
*BAbip: .344
(highest -vs- any team)

*Definition of BAbip:
Batting Avg. on Balls in Plays (Hits - HR's)/(AB's - SO - HR + Sac Flies)

So, end result of my wagers shows me Being Philly Today.

Historically, for me anyways, I have not faired well backing Roy Halladay on a -RL but today I feel extremely confident in my plays backing the Phillies w/their bats -vs- Arroyo and Halladay's pitching -vs- the Reds bats who've scored 5 runs 5 times their past 22 games.

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User: GiLmo574
Joined: November 2008
Location: California
Team: Chicago Bears
Occupation: Management

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