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GiLz #NCAAB ((12.31.12))

By GiLmo574 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, December 31, 2012 03:17 PM   0 comments

GiLz #NCAAB  ((12.31.12))
• Michigan State +6  =  [2U]
• Cincinnati +7 (-120)  =  [2U]
• New Mexico +5  =  [2U]
• Nevada +12.5
• Iowa +7
• Iowa/Indiana OVER 150
• St. Bonnies -5

’12-’13 *YTD* = 122-88 (58%) @ +49.20 unit$

> 29-7 [2U] plays

MICHIGAN STATE +6  =  I’m a sucker for getting Tom Izzo & Co. as a road +DOG throughout the years  -  they’ve covered there last 4 ATS @ Minnesota during Big 10 action, they’ve covered 11 of L13 -vs- Golden Gophers overall.  Michigan State has been hitting half of their shots L5 games played -vs- Minnesota a little above the 40% mark.  Most trends point in Minnesota’s direction for this matchup  -  and while they have the betters ATS record this year (7-4 MINN/3-7 MICH STATE) Coach Tubby Smith is 3-15 all-time -vs- Michigan State.  I do believe that the Spartans defense will set the tone & pace in this game…

CINCINNATI +7  =  Nothing more but Bearcats Basketball being in *BOUNCE BACK* mode after losing to New Mexico a few days back.  I look for this game to be an aggressive, scrappy all around game.  This is easily PITT’s 2nd biggest test of the year  -  besides there loss to Michigan earlier in the year.  Cincy’s last matchup, the loss to New Mexico, they had season lows in PPG and FG %  -  therefore, I think the bounce back sets in -vs- a conference foe.  I will admit that this is an oddball line which first caught my attention and flagged to back off… but the deeper I dug, the more I liked Cincy with the bounce back.  I bought the .5 and although I was comfortable with a 6/6.5 play, I didn’t mine purchasing the hook which has paid off for me this year.  Cincy hits the road for the first time in the past 3 games, but what’s encouraging is that they are 5-0 ATS the last 5 times this situation has came up - hitting the road after a home triple pack of games - and they are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall on the road.

NEW MEXICO +5  =  New Mexico as a +DOG – sign me up.  I failed to supprot the Lobo +DOG last outing -vs- Cincy, I only sided with them for a (1H) play.  You have 5-0 records pinned against one another; New Mexico 5-0 with 3+days of rest Saint Louis 5-0 L5 played.  But just like the earlier play with backing Cincy @ PITT, you have Saint Louis facing it’s toughest opponent to date… next inline you can argue Washington, which Saint Louis lost, or even the scrappy Broncos out in Santa Clara which they lost to their 2nd game of the year.  These Lobos do have a “lookahead” game on deck, -vs- UNLV, MWC game… but that’s not for another 10 days.  A nice little nuggest I uncovered is during Steve Alford’s stay @ New Mexico, since 2007, his team has only scored under 60 points 10 times.  His teams bounce back AVG PPG the following game = 76 PPG.  His motion offense (2out/3in) is a key component of course to the bounce back PPG, and if teams go zone defense then the zone offense has historically produced the same.

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User: GiLmo574
Joined: November 2008
Location: California
Team: Chicago Bears
Occupation: Management

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