Greedybastard's Blog

Posted Thursday, September 25, 2014 10:13 PM

Week 5 NCAA

Another solid week last week to bring the total to 27-10-1 for the year. Two more underdogs on the money line with Rutgers and Iowa coming through. This week I am way behind on the line moves, so my absolute must play of Boston College will move to no action. Plenty of good money to be made this week though.

New Mexico moneyline +175 – Defense will be optional, I’ll take the home conference dog.

Penn State -10 – Still not understanding why these Penn State lines are so low. They have a stout defense, and Hackenberg is a solid game manager. Not to worry though, I will keep collecting on the Lions.  I really think this team has a solid chance to be undefeated heading into the MSU game.

Cal -14 – Colorado has to be one of the worst road teams in the nation. Jared Goff should be able to pick apart the Colorado defense, and I don’t see CU being able to keep up on the offensive end.

Washington +7.5 – The last couple of years, this game has been a slugfest. This year should be no different. Wanted to take the moneyline, but not certain the Huskies can close the deal.

UTSA -6 – UTSA will control the game with their defense, and their offense should be able to march up and down against the Owls.

Notre Dame – 10 – Too much talent for the Irish in this one. 31-10 Irish.

Nebraska /Illinois... [More]

Posted Friday, September 19, 2014 09:17 PM

Week 4 money

22-8 YTD and had another solid week last week with the Iowa State money line coming in. Underdogs have been solid so far, but there are a couple of favorites that I like this week.

Penn State -26.5 – Don’t see UMass scoring more than a field goal in this one.

Michigan -3.5 – Not getting all the love for Utah. Clobbering Fresno will end up meaning nothing this year since everyone will be doing it.

Colorado -9 – Altitude and warm weather will wear down Hawaii. Think the Buffs pull away in the 2nd half. Also like the over in this game as the Buffs will be pushing the pace. Line is down to 60, and I am hoping to get a better number closer to kickoff

East Carolina -2.5 - I'll continue to ride the Pirates gravy train. Solid offense that NC will not be able to stop.

Rutgers moneyline +200  - I like this Rutgers team. I think Ralph Friedgen will continue to get the offense going in the right direction, and this defense should be good enough to hold up.

Iowa moneyline +230 – Just a hunch, but I think the Hawks will keep this one tight.

... [More]

Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 11:48 PM

Week 3

16-5 through the first two weeks, with a 5-2 week 2, and another nice moneyline hit on Northern Illinois. I saw a ton of games that I liked, but I narrowed it down to the following:

Iowa State +12 – I don’t think the Iowa model of offense is going to work. Two QB’s and running backs rotating, won’t allow an offense to flow. No consistency, and lack of speed at any position on offense, will be the downfall of the Hawkeyes. Might be time to replace the coach as well.

The Cyclones stunned me with the effort that they put in versus KSU. At times, they actually looked like they had some talent. I think the speed on offense should be enough to keep them in the game. If the Cyclones limit the mistakes, I think they take this one.

Iowa State money line +330

East Carolina +10 – Looking for a bit of a letdown from Va. Tech. I think facing an uptempo, spread offense when you are in a possible letdown spot is a recipe for disaster.

Central Michigan Money line +170

South Carolina +7 – Wanted to take the moneyline, but I’ll take the home dog with the points. I think Texas A & M and East Carolina are bad matchups for most of the country, so I am not sold on SC being as bad as they look. Georgia would be best off playing uptempo, but I think this game turns into a grinder in the trenches. Won’t be shocked if SC pulls ou... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 03, 2014 12:51 PM

Week 2 - KSU vs. ISU

Solid Week 1 with an 11-3 record, and a couple of nice underdog moneyline wins with Temple, Rutgers and Colorado State getting it done. Week 2 is the toughest weekend to cap in my opinion because it is easy to label a team based off of the one week of action. There are teams that are not as good as they looked, and there are teams that are not as bad as they looked. I think for this week, I have found the team that is as bad as it looked, and the team that is as good as it looked.

Iowa State once again appears to be a bad team, and this upcoming matchup with Kansas State is a really bad one for the Cyclones. It appears that the weakness of the Clones is their run defense. Now they have KSU coming in, fresh off of 51 rush attempts in their last game. What also intrigues me about Kansas State is the fact that they actually put up a ton of pass attempts last week. This is almost becoming a balanced offense. I think with this newfound "balance," KSU will get their standard four and five yard rushes, but they will break this game wide open with their passing attack. Tyler Lockett was too quiet last week. I think this week he gets behind the ISU secondary a couple of times with the play action attack.

Once KSU gets into the lead, I see no way that ISU can get back into this one. Sam Richardson just can’t move the ball down the field consistently. If you subtract the 48 yard pass to Lazard, Richardson had 19 compl... [More]

Posted Saturday, August 09, 2014 02:37 PM

Colorado vs. Colorado State

One of my favorite scenarios on display with the Rams and Buffaloes in week 1. CSU got the extra practice time after the season with their bowl appearance in December. Not only that, but they pulled off a miracle which only boosts the confidence.  CU on the other hand, had yet another dismal season, and the move to the Pac-12 is looking worse and worse by the season. Although the Rams are losing a ton on the O-Line, I think they bring in enough talent on that line to offset some of the losses. The return of Garrett Grayson, Kivon Cartwright, and Rashard Higgins should help the offense through the air, and the addition of Dee Hart at Running Back is huge for CSU. He brings a big, nasty presence to the Rams running game, and I think it will help CSU keep control of the ball. He isn't technically the starter, but I think he ends up as the number 1 when all is said and done.

Even though the Rams are losing talent up front on defense also, they are not losing the leadership of Max Morgan. He keys the defense, and if healthy, he will help the Rams D keep some of these lower octane offenses from running up big numbers. The linebackers and the secondary are experienced, and they should be much improved from last year.

On the CU side of things, the one threat that always scared me to death in these CU/CSU games is now gone. Paul Richardson absolutely torched the Rams with his speed, and it didn’t hurt that the ... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 01:08 PM

2014 Joe Gibbs Racing Thread

Think there is money to be made by just focusing on a team that appears to be heading for a great season in Nwide and Cup.

Daytona Nationwide

Kyle 3/1 $25.00

Matt 5/1 $20.00



Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 11:43 AM

Underdog Moneylines for 1/18

2-4 last week and still managed + 40 on the day.

Georgia ML +150 - Can you say Arkansas letdown?

Missouri State + 500

Fairfield + 275

South Carolina + 105

NC Greensboro + 270

Chattanooga + 255

FSU + 185

BC +575



Posted Saturday, January 11, 2014 11:09 AM

Shaping up to be a nice underdog moneyline day

North Carolina +330 - When this team plays poorly, they play really poorly, but they have wins over Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky.

South Carolina +115 - Frank has this team playing well, and I like a conference home dog any time I can get one.

Troy +260 - Why not.

South Dakota +180 - DU tends to have a ton of trouble on the road, and I can easily see a poor shooting loss for the pioneers today.

Temple +260 - Looking for a Memphis letdown. Probably a donation to the book.

Over 170 OU/ISU - This is going to be a shootout. These teams also have a crazy record in favor of the over throughout the years.

Good luck today gentlemen.



Posted Tuesday, November 05, 2013 11:02 PM

Warriors/Wolves over

This is going to be an entertaining game from start to finish tomorrow night. The Wolves are going to be a sleeper team in the West, and I think they can match the Warriors bucket for bucket. I am looking for Minnesota to get off to another hot first quarter start, and for the Warriors to shoot themselves back into it throughout the game. I think this thing sails over 208.5.

Posted Sunday, November 03, 2013 04:27 PM

Minnesota Twolves Moneyline

This Timberwolves team is going to be a money maker this year. I'll take what I think is the better lineup. +140 is a nice price for a team that has the better starting lineup, and a much better bench.

Posted Sunday, March 24, 2013 11:31 AM

California - Lets go JGR part III

+150.00 on the season.

Yesterday's race seemed to indicate that the top was going to be the preffered line. There are a couple of guys who I think are very good in this scenario.

Kasey Kahne 10/1 $70.00 - One of the best at riding in the high line.

Kenseth - 7/1 $50.00 - To me, he is the best of the best right now.

Hamlin - 7/1 $50.00 - He knows how to save the tires on tracks where the give up is so substantial.

Junior - 15/1 $40.00 - Another that can just sit up top and set sail.

Bowyer and Kes worry me a bit because this could be a fuel mileage race, but I think I have the winner listed. Good luck fellas.



Posted Thursday, March 14, 2013 10:53 PM

Bristol- Let's go JGR Part II

+$390.00 on the season, thanks to Matt Kenseth.

On to Bristol where I think we see the usual suspects at the front of the field.

Kyle +700 $60.00 - He's going to break through at some pont.

Kes +700 $50.00

Kenseth + 1200 $40.00

Concrete Carl 1200 $40.00

Denny - Pass for now.

Let's hope we can all hit again this week.



Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 02:51 PM

Las Vegas Sunday - Lets go JGR

Gibbs cars definitely have the new car figured out. I think this race will be a display of Gibbs drivers and power.

Kyle +700 $50

Denny - 10-1 $40 - One week ago Denny was criticizing NASCAR and the new style of car, and I can see him winning this week. Post race interview could be entertaining.

Kenseth - 15-1 $40 - There is way too much value in a driver who usually does well on the 1.5 mile tracks.

Looks like we are all on Kyle, so I hope he comes through for us. Hopefully fuel mileage stays out of the equation today. I chose to pass on Brad K., and I am really hoping it doesn't come back to bite me.



Posted Saturday, March 09, 2013 02:44 PM

Las Vegas Saturday

+0.00 for the season. Giving back all of my Saturday winnings on Sunday so far.

I think the Nationwide race is going to be the Kyle Busch show again like last week, but I'll add some insurance.

Kyle +250 $60

Kes +500 $35

Bayne +900 $25

Good luck this weekend gentlemen.



Posted Saturday, March 02, 2013 11:59 AM

Phoenix Weekend

Ended up +0.00 after a decent early start to the Daytona Weekend.

Nationwide:

Following the herd and taking Harvick +600, and adding Kyle +350 and Kes +800.

Cup:

The odds got a little out of control on the top guys, so my only pick so far is Bowyer at +2500. Will watch practice and see who is strong. Leaning Kyle, Tony and Jeff G. Good luck this weekend gentlemen.



Posted Monday, February 18, 2013 05:41 PM

Daytona 500

After catching a fair amount of practice and the Shooutout over the weekend, I think it is becoming clearer who the cars to beat are going to be for the Duels and the 500.

No odds yet for the Duels, but I will be on the 20, 14 and 29. The 20 dominated the early practices, and the 20, 14, and 29 dominated in the Shootout. I am guessing that they will be strong in the Duels, and will get a solid starting spot for the 500, so I will get in now.

Kenseth 12-1 50 to win 600. As soon as he signed with Gibbs, I thought that he would win the 500 with the 11 pushing.

Harvick 10-1 45 to win 450. Possibly a slight over-reaction to the Shootout, but he controlled that race and his car was strong on the top and bottom.

Stewart 12-1 40 to win 480

I'll wait to see what happens in the Duels to see if I need to add anyone else, but at this point, I don't see a longshot or anyone else really having a car/driver that can work past these three. Good luck, and here's to a NASCAR season with plus money.



Posted Thursday, August 30, 2012 09:50 PM

Kickoff Weekend Underdogs and underdog moneylines

Starting off with Thursday

Washington State +13 - Coach Leach should have enough up his sleeve to keep this within 13

UNLV +9.5 - In the battle of two bad teams, I will take the home dog. Strange things can happen in Vegas when the Rebels are dogs.

WSU Moneyline +400 - Small wager on all of the Coach Leach hype.

UNLV +280

Good luck to all this college season. Hope it is profitable to all.



Posted Tuesday, December 27, 2011 07:37 PM

12/27 Underdog Moneyline

1-0 on the underdog moneylines with New Orleans last night.

Tonight Minnesota +210 looks good. I liked what I saw from them against OKC, and I expect more of the same tonight. The culture is changing for the better in Minny. I'll take the better offense in this match up.



Posted Sunday, December 25, 2011 11:28 AM

A couple picks for Xmas

Bulls -4.5 - No BYnum, no Odom, an aging Fisher, and a banged up Kobe, and no Phil Jackson makes me like the Bulls today. I also really like the addition of Rip Hamilton for the Bulls. It will take a little pressure off of D Rose.

Under 189 Heat/Mavs - It is Xmas day, unders or no play for me.

Under 195.5 Magic/Thunder -  Missed the 197 I wanted, but I think these two teams are more than capable of putting together a couple solid minutes of bricks.

Very small play on Knicks/Celts Under 191.5

Good luck with your NBA season.



Posted Sunday, December 04, 2011 11:57 AM

Underdog Moneylines 12/4

UNLV +125

Baylor +120

Dayton +130

UNLV/Baylor Parlay

UNLV/Baylor/Dayton Parlay

GLTA



Posted Saturday, September 24, 2011 12:06 PM

Colorado State at Utah State

Procrastinated and got a line that wasn't as good as it could have been, but it will end up not making a difference. Colorado State will bring its slow and predictable offense to the table, and again they will be missing Michael Sisson from their defense. It was obvious that he was sorely missed last weekend against the running game of CU. Colorado State practically needed a miracle to beat New Mexico on the road and they managed a whopping 14 points against one of the worst teams in the nation. CSU brought another 14 point performance against another poor defense last weekend. I see another 14-17 point performance tonight against Utah State, and I don't see how that keeps them in the game much past the 2nd quarter. Utah State's large O-line is going to push CSU all over the field, and I see the Aggies scoring well into the 30's against a much smaller and slower CSU defense. Another bad road loss for the Rams is upcoming tonight. 38-17 Aggies. Take Utah State -10 and enjoy teh easy money.

Utah State -10

Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 11:27 AM

Colorado vs Colorado State

Colorado State will be without Micahael Sisson and I think that is going to really hurt them defensively.

Colorado State was lucky to win in week one, and looked less than impressive in week two. They take a large step up in competition today against CU. I am not saying CU is awesome, but they are better than New Mexico and Northern Colorado.

CU's offensive line will wear down the smaller CSU D-line, and CU's speeed at WR is going to cause a big problem. I think Paul Richardson has a huge game for CU today.

Colorado State's running game will go back to being anemic, and I see CU winning this game easily. I'll gladly lay -7 today on the Buffs.

CU - 7 -BIG



Posted Saturday, September 10, 2011 11:24 AM

underdog moneylines Sept. 10

C. Michigan +305

Colorado +200 - This game has been circled for the Buffs since the day after the Cal game last year. Make or break time for CU. Funny things tend to happen at altitude.

Kansas +165

Wisky over 58

Houston over 64.5

Va Tech over 64.5



Posted Saturday, August 13, 2011 12:29 PM

Colorado State at New Mexico

I got a number that I feel comfortable with laying on CSU. The first thing that stood out to me when I took a look at this game is the fact that New Mexico has scored a total of 21 total points in game 1 over the last 5 years. Yes they have played some good teams in that span, but they have had horrible statistics to match the poor totals. It just shows an overall lack of preperation to start the season.

Next, Mike Locksley is still the coach at New Mexico. He brings a 2-22 record back for the 2011-2012 season. I saw a quote somewhere that stated he has had more lawsuits against him than victories. I don't believe his team wants to play for him, and given the inability of the Lobos to score, I can easily see them putting up no more than 14 points in this game. 6 returning starters on the offense will not help their cause either.

Although CSU is horrible on the road, I believe this is a good bet on Colorado State because they have a QB that will pick NM apart, they have a much improved running game to keep the Lobos on their heels, and most importantly, the players of CSU love Steve Fairchild, and he is on the hot seat. I believe the 8 returning starters on offense can only help their cause. This game means everything to CSU's season.

Pete Thomas has done nothing but improve over the summer. He is stronger and more accurate than last season, and he absolutely torched UNM last season. I look for more of the same this sea... [More]

Posted Sunday, May 29, 2011 12:29 PM

Coca Cola 600

Carl +500 - Noticed this number has dropped to +300 in some placed.  75 to win 375

Kenseth +1000 - Same chassis as the Texas car. That turned out pretty well. 50 to win 500

Good luck gentlemen



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