Greedybastard's Blog

Posted Thursday, June 04, 2015 09:51 PM

Texas Trucks and Pocono

It seems like we are all in agreement that Pocono is going to come down to some sort of strategy play. There is a driver that I think will not only have a fast car, but I think can play any strategy that is needed to get the win.

88 to win 8/1

22 to win 11/1  - Another guy that should be quick, and he seems to have learned from BK how to do that "hyper-miling."

78 top 3 5/1 - Just not sure these guys actually have what it takes to close the deal.

14 top 3 25/1 - Got this one early in the week. His odds to win the race dropped from 90/1 to 45/1.

16 top 3 30/1 - This guy is picking up speed and playing the fuel mileage game of late.

Trucks - Most likely I am late to the party, but I am taking Reddick at 5/1, and I'll go Crafton at 3/1. This should most likely be the week that Erik Jones closes the deal since I have been on him over and over with no love.

Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 09:59 AM

Dover picks

Looks like the Gibbs teams have found that "extra bit of speed" that they said they were lacking.

Hamlin - My book left the odds up during practice yesterday, and I am not one to pass on a book's generosity. Got the 10/1, but just not the 20/1 like a few of you got.

Johnson  - Doesn't look like he has the speed, or the long run ability of Hamlin, but it is still Dover. 4/1

Bowyer top 3 - The truck and Infinity races came down to a long fuel run at the end, and I could see drivers like the 19, 15 and 88, and even the 14 doing something out of the ordinary to get to the front. 30/1

McMurray top 3 - This guy always seems to be lurking at the short tracks. He is another one where a strategy play may get him to the front. Don't think he has anything for the Gibbs boys, but a top 3 is not out of the question. 12/1.

Posted Sunday, May 03, 2015 11:01 AM

Plus money run lines 5/03

28-34 +$405

Parlays 3-7 +$607

Cubs -1.5 +125 - Looks like we could have a shootout with the total set at 10.5. I will take the better offense and arguably the better pitcher.

Padres -1.5 + 115 - I am assuming Tulo will sit since it is Sunday, and that is what he does. Kendrick will be lucky to get out of the 4th, like usual, and then in comes the Rockies bullpen, which has been overused on this trip. I'll also play the -2.5 when I get it. Might also play Padres to win by 4 or more when that comes out as well.

Posted Sunday, May 03, 2015 10:47 AM

Talladega Guesses

I love this race because of the huge odds and the opportunity to bet a few more drivers than normal.

43 - 55/1 $20.00

13 - 70/1 $10.00

1 - 25/1 $30.00

16- 25/1 $30.00

17 - 40/1 $20.00

22 - 12/1 $35.00

Let the chaos begin!

Posted Saturday, May 02, 2015 09:42 PM

Best strategy to bet if you think Floyd wins in under 12

I really don't see how this doesn't go the full 12, but I am on the following:

Mayweather wins in Round 1-6 +22/1 ($35.00)

Mayweather wins in Round 7-10 16/1 ($60.00)

Mayweather wins in Round 10-12 22/1 ($55.00)

Posted Monday, April 27, 2015 10:16 PM

Bulls live moneyline +225

Banking on a Bucks meltdown.

Posted Sunday, April 26, 2015 11:12 AM

Dogs and + money run lines 4/26

24-28 +$429

Parlays: 3-6 +$657

Nats -1.5 +140 -

Angels -1.5 +140

Rockies - 1.5 +155 - Don't think they get this game in today with the rain.

Astros + 136

Posted Wednesday, April 22, 2015 09:31 PM

Archie Bradley runline +175

I will continue to preach that this guy is the real deal until proven otherwise. Other than Prince Fielder, I do not think there is a player on the Rangers that can turn on Archie's fastball. Add in the fact that the Rangers have never seen him, and I think we have enough to get the W on the runline.

As long as he continues to locate with his pitches, he will continue to roll. Don't expect the ERA to edge above 2.00 tonight, which should get us to the W.

Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 06:03 PM

Underdogs 4/20

19-22 +$351

Parlays: 3-5 + $697

Cincy +102 - I'll continue to fade the Brewers until they make me pay, or they switch the manager out.

Minnesota +138  - Kyle Gibson's ERA against the Royals is absurd. Twins shouldn't need more than 3 tonight, but that is asking a lot nonetheless.

Parlay Rockies and Over: 40 to win 93

Posted Sunday, April 19, 2015 10:21 AM

Underdogs and + money run lines 4/19

18-19 +$376.00

Parlay: 3-5 + $697.00

Nice to be three games under in the record column, but over a $1,000.00 where it counts most. Two of the losses were games where a five run lead evaporated.

Mets -1.5 +115 - Harvey actually looks like he is capable of giving up hits, but I don't think this Marlins team will take advantage. Hopefully the Mets bullpen can get it together today.

Pirates - 1.5 +125 - I think things don't get right for the Brewers until a manager change. Won't be shocked if the Brewers score two runs again at the most. This team looks completely lost and uninterested.

Posted Saturday, April 18, 2015 12:46 PM

Underdogs and + money runlines 4/18

16-18 +$171

Parlays 2-5 +$180

Parlay: over Philly/Pitt/Colorado $100 to win $517

Mets runline +150

Yanks runline +150

Pirates runline +155

Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 08:51 PM

Archie Bradley +160

Better enjoy these fat numbers on Archie, because they will continue to drop as the world catches on that he is legit.

Big number against an anemic offense, don't mind if I do.

Posted Sunday, April 12, 2015 12:02 PM

Underdogs and + money runlines 4/12

9-11 -$9

Parlays 2-2 +$300

Took a beating with the Rockies finally losing yesterday.

Mets +104

Rockies/Cubs over 10 Even

Milwaukee -1.5 +170

Parlay - Mets ML/Rox over 10/Brewer run line  - $40 to win 400

Parlay Mets ML/Rox over 10/Chisox over 7.5 +105/Brewer Run line $40 to win $820

Posted Saturday, April 11, 2015 12:32 PM

Underdogs and + Money Runlines 4/11

7-9 +$131.00

Parlays 2-1 +$340

Colorado Rockies Run Line - +170 - Back to facing a right handed pitcher, and having Hundley behind the plate should equal a comfortable win for the Rockies. This team has paid me well so far this year, and looking to go 5-0 with them.

Colorado Rockies -2.5 +230

Parlay: Under Cincy/SD/Tex and Colorado -1.5 35 to win 623.

Posted Sunday, April 05, 2015 11:15 AM

Opening Day Underdogs and + Money runlines

Cubs -1.5 +190 - I could see the magical story of the Cubs starting off well tonight. I don't buy them as a legit contender, but I do thing Lester can keep the Cardinals in check. Lean to the over if it goes back to + money.

ChiSox +105 -  I think the team in Chicago that will surprise and turn heads isn't the Cubs, but the ChiSox. I'll take the plus money in this matchup and wait for Ventura to have a middle inning meltdown.

Cincinnati -1.5 - +175 - Cincy is a team that I see making a huge turnaround barring injury. Cueto, plus this offense, make a solid statement tomorrow.

Colorado +140 - I think I am one of the very few who thinks the Rox will actually be respectable. This offense will be a monster with the key pieces healthy. Once Tulo gets hurt, it'll be all down hill.

Good luck on the season to all. Especially to those that don't take favorites.

Posted Saturday, February 28, 2015 11:15 AM

Xfinity Atlanta

Harvick - 4/1

Larson 7/1

Not a fan of going against the 22, but Harvick owns this place and Larson is primed to win a bunch this year.

Posted Sunday, February 22, 2015 11:41 AM

The 500

Solid start to the season with a Duel win and an Xfinity win yesterday. Not happy with my numbers for today's race, but that is what happens when you wait.

88 - 6/1 - Horrible number, but I think he wins handily today.

48- 9/1 - Possible overreaction to the Duels, but it looks like he has a bad fast car. Hard to tell since the majority of the fast cars were in the other Duel.

4 - 12/1 - This will depend on whether or not he drops to the back to just ride around. I think he needs to stay near the front, even in the early stages of the race.

16 top 3 - 10/1 - Ever notice this guy is always lurking at the 500? Don't think he has the team to get him to the front, but I think he can linger around the top spots long enough to maybe pull off a top 3 finish.

42 top 3 10/1 - I think he wins multiple races this season, but not today. He will be in the mix just about every weekend in my opinion. Kyle Busch being out is going to open the door for this kid in both series.

Might look at one or two more top 3's, but I am set on the 88 winning today.

Posted Saturday, February 21, 2015 10:03 AM

Xfinity Series

Plus money after the Duels, now looking to make a huge splash. Big names in this race means big numbers on other drivers.

Brian Scott 20/1

Regan Smith 10/1 - I don't get why his numbers are always high in these plate races.

Field - 12/1 - Relying on Mike Wallace to bring this one home.

Good luck on the season boys!

Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2015 10:46 PM

The Duels

Duel I - I was surprised to see the 88 at 6/1. Starting in the back means nothing in a race like this when there is plenty of room to move. I'll take the 88 and 20 at 6/1 in the first race. I get the two strongest cars and the two best plate racers.

Duel II - 78 and 11 - Don't quite get the low odds for Carl, but it helps me get a better number. Carl is playing the "better teammate" card, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him push the 11 to the win. Truex looked strong in the Unlimited, and I think he has a good chance tomorrow. 78 at 10/1 and 11 at 5/1 look solid.

Posted Saturday, January 03, 2015 11:27 AM

Conference Moneyline Dogs 2015

With the new year, the time for hitting conference moneyline dogs has come. Todays card is ugly.

Seton Hall +290

Air Force +110

TCU +130

St Louis +240

St Joes +180

Posted Thursday, September 25, 2014 10:13 PM

Week 5 NCAA

Another solid week last week to bring the total to 27-10-1 for the year. Two more underdogs on the money line with Rutgers and Iowa coming through. This week I am way behind on the line moves, so my absolute must play of Boston College will move to no action. Plenty of good money to be made this week though.

New Mexico moneyline +175 – Defense will be optional, I’ll take the home conference dog.

Penn State -10 – Still not understanding why these Penn State lines are so low. They have a stout defense, and Hackenberg is a solid game manager. Not to worry though, I will keep collecting on the Lions.  I really think this team has a solid chance to be undefeated heading into the MSU game.

Cal -14 – Colorado has to be one of the worst road teams in the nation. Jared Goff should be able to pick apart the Colorado defense, and I don’t see CU being able to keep up on the offensive end.

Washington +7.5 – The last couple of years, this game has been a slugfest. This year should be no different. Wanted to take the moneyline, but not certain the Huskies can close the deal.

UTSA -6 – UTSA will control the game with their defense, and their offense should be able to march up and down against the Owls.

Notre Dame – 10 – Too much talent for the Irish in this one. 31-10 Irish.

Nebraska /Illinois... [More]

Posted Friday, September 19, 2014 09:17 PM

Week 4 money

22-8 YTD and had another solid week last week with the Iowa State money line coming in. Underdogs have been solid so far, but there are a couple of favorites that I like this week.

Penn State -26.5 – Don’t see UMass scoring more than a field goal in this one.

Michigan -3.5 – Not getting all the love for Utah. Clobbering Fresno will end up meaning nothing this year since everyone will be doing it.

Colorado -9 – Altitude and warm weather will wear down Hawaii. Think the Buffs pull away in the 2nd half. Also like the over in this game as the Buffs will be pushing the pace. Line is down to 60, and I am hoping to get a better number closer to kickoff

East Carolina -2.5 - I'll continue to ride the Pirates gravy train. Solid offense that NC will not be able to stop.

Rutgers moneyline +200  - I like this Rutgers team. I think Ralph Friedgen will continue to get the offense going in the right direction, and this defense should be good enough to hold up.

Iowa moneyline +230 – Just a hunch, but I think the Hawks will keep this one tight.

... [More]

Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 11:48 PM

Week 3

16-5 through the first two weeks, with a 5-2 week 2, and another nice moneyline hit on Northern Illinois. I saw a ton of games that I liked, but I narrowed it down to the following:

Iowa State +12 – I don’t think the Iowa model of offense is going to work. Two QB’s and running backs rotating, won’t allow an offense to flow. No consistency, and lack of speed at any position on offense, will be the downfall of the Hawkeyes. Might be time to replace the coach as well.

The Cyclones stunned me with the effort that they put in versus KSU. At times, they actually looked like they had some talent. I think the speed on offense should be enough to keep them in the game. If the Cyclones limit the mistakes, I think they take this one.

Iowa State money line +330

East Carolina +10 – Looking for a bit of a letdown from Va. Tech. I think facing an uptempo, spread offense when you are in a possible letdown spot is a recipe for disaster.

Central Michigan Money line +170

South Carolina +7 – Wanted to take the moneyline, but I’ll take the home dog with the points. I think Texas A & M and East Carolina are bad matchups for most of the country, so I am not sold on SC being as bad as they look. Georgia would be best off playing uptempo, but I think this game turns into a grinder in the trenches. Won’t be shocked if SC pulls ou... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 03, 2014 12:51 PM

Week 2 - KSU vs. ISU

Solid Week 1 with an 11-3 record, and a couple of nice underdog moneyline wins with Temple, Rutgers and Colorado State getting it done. Week 2 is the toughest weekend to cap in my opinion because it is easy to label a team based off of the one week of action. There are teams that are not as good as they looked, and there are teams that are not as bad as they looked. I think for this week, I have found the team that is as bad as it looked, and the team that is as good as it looked.

Iowa State once again appears to be a bad team, and this upcoming matchup with Kansas State is a really bad one for the Cyclones. It appears that the weakness of the Clones is their run defense. Now they have KSU coming in, fresh off of 51 rush attempts in their last game. What also intrigues me about Kansas State is the fact that they actually put up a ton of pass attempts last week. This is almost becoming a balanced offense. I think with this newfound "balance," KSU will get their standard four and five yard rushes, but they will break this game wide open with their passing attack. Tyler Lockett was too quiet last week. I think this week he gets behind the ISU secondary a couple of times with the play action attack.

Once KSU gets into the lead, I see no way that ISU can get back into this one. Sam Richardson just can’t move the ball down the field consistently. If you subtract the 48 yard pass to Lazard, Richardson had 19 compl... [More]

Posted Saturday, August 09, 2014 02:37 PM

Colorado vs. Colorado State

One of my favorite scenarios on display with the Rams and Buffaloes in week 1. CSU got the extra practice time after the season with their bowl appearance in December. Not only that, but they pulled off a miracle which only boosts the confidence.  CU on the other hand, had yet another dismal season, and the move to the Pac-12 is looking worse and worse by the season. Although the Rams are losing a ton on the O-Line, I think they bring in enough talent on that line to offset some of the losses. The return of Garrett Grayson, Kivon Cartwright, and Rashard Higgins should help the offense through the air, and the addition of Dee Hart at Running Back is huge for CSU. He brings a big, nasty presence to the Rams running game, and I think it will help CSU keep control of the ball. He isn't technically the starter, but I think he ends up as the number 1 when all is said and done.

Even though the Rams are losing talent up front on defense also, they are not losing the leadership of Max Morgan. He keys the defense, and if healthy, he will help the Rams D keep some of these lower octane offenses from running up big numbers. The linebackers and the secondary are experienced, and they should be much improved from last year.

On the CU side of things, the one threat that always scared me to death in these CU/CSU games is now gone. Paul Richardson absolutely torched the Rams with his speed, and it didn’t hurt that the ... [More]

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