Greedybastard's Blog

Posted Thursday, October 01, 2015 09:47 PM

Kenseth to win the Cup @ 5/1

Last weekend was solid with a three team underdog moneyline parlay hit in the NFL, and then hitting Kenseth in the race that afternoon. Thought I would take some of the winnings and unload on Kenseth to win the title. When it comes to the races left, these 1.5 milers are going to favor the 20 team. No reason to think Kenseth doesn't win either Kansas or Charlotte to get to the next round. Being strong at Talladega doesn't hurt either.

No reason to think Kenseth can't win Texas, and by then, it should really be down to the 20, 22, 48 and 11. I can't see him losing to any of those drivers at Homestead.

One huge wrinkle could be if the 4 wins this weekend. I am really thinking of adding the 4 for $100 and taking my chances. I think there are so many teams thinking that they can't let the 4 win this weekend that we see some serious strategy on the final run of the race. Everybody knows keeping the 4 out of victory lane this weekend guarantees a much easier path to the cup. I think the 20 team benefits the most from the 4 being knocked out.

Kenseth to win the Cup $250.00 to win $1,250.00


Posted Wednesday, September 16, 2015 10:44 PM

Colorado vs Colorado State

The Super Bowl has arrived for 'ol GreedyB. This is by far my favorite game to cap because I get to see a lot of these two teams both in games and practices. Being able to get a behind the scenes look at both teams usually plays out well when it comes to covering the spread.

In my opinion, this is going to be a one-sided affair, and it will go in favor of the Rams.

On the surface, this pick seems like a slam dunk, and I think it will be, but it'll take awhile for the Rams to take it to the Buffs.

For starters, I am going to rule out Rashard Higgins. High ankle sprains take too long to heal, and CSU will either play him, and he won't be effective, or they will do the wise thing, and sit him until conference play begins.

Next, Colorado State is going to rotate QBs. I usually hate this, and for this reason, I think CSU struggles early. However, I really think that Coleman Key will be the one that finishes the job for the Rams. He is a big kid with a huge arm. He is lacking in accuracy for the time being, but he is by far the most confident of the two QBs. Stevens is talented, but he misses way too many wide open passes.

Finally, there may still be a bit of a hangover for the Rams after last weekends ending with Minnesota. CSU lead the game for 40:40 and was pretty much in charge the whole game. Unfortunately they completely pissed down their leg when the stakes were highest. That was a physical game, and it took a toll, so again I... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 03, 2015 10:43 PM


Xfinity - Denny 5/1, Joey 4/1.

Cup - Denny 7.5/1 and Brad 9/1 - Same rules package as Kentucky, but more importantly, a track that just chews up tires. I think I have two of the best at saving their stuff. Thinking the 20 may be another solid pick. Wanted to get these two in prior to qualifying.

Posted Sunday, August 30, 2015 07:00 PM

Colorado at Hawaii

Shoulda, coulda, woulda. That is how I would sum up CU last season. As terrible as this team was, last year the Buffs had UCLA, Oregon State and Utah on the ropes, and found a way to choke the game away. The defense just could not find a way to get a stop.

Enter Jim Leavitt. I have sat in on multiple CU practices this summer, and the guy has been dominate in practices. I find it hard to believe that Macintyre is even the head coach. Leavitt runs the show, and most importantly he has made the point a couple of times that he will put the defense in the correct position to succeed. So far so good. I like the experience returning, and more importantly, I like the man in charge of the defense. Colorado will still get gashed by the likes of Oregon and USC, but a lot of the middle tier PAC 12 teams need to be on high alert.

The next thing that has stood out to me about this CU team is speed. I cannot remember the last year where I was able to say that I wasn't faster than half the team. CU's receiving corps is full of speedsters. I am really looking forward to this match up with Hawaii, because I see plenty of opportunity for the long ball. CUs O-line is much bigger, and most importantly much stronger than they have been in the past. I am looking for the Buffs O-line to push Hawaii all over the field. Not only will this give Sefo plenty of time to sit in the pocket and air it out, but I believe we are going to see a huge night for the CU running game.

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Posted Friday, August 28, 2015 10:29 AM

Season long Western Kentucky over thread

With a new baby boy in the house, and a job that keeps me away at least 50 hours a week, I am going to have to pick my spots quite carefully this season, and I believe this thread will be the easiest and most low maintenance way to make a profit. Each week I will be taking the WKU over, and I will be getting it right as it comes out. I will not wait for better numbers, and I will not flinch if they go into the 80s. This team is explosive on offense, and atrocious on defense. That previous sentence will be the basis of all of my capping on these totals. In my opinion, this is a recipe for overs covering in the 3rd quarter left and right. My goal for this thread will be conservative (+$500.00), but incredibly attainable.

Week 1 - @Vandy - Over 65 $110.00 to win $100.00

Here's to a profitable season.

Posted Saturday, August 01, 2015 11:25 AM


Iowa: I think tonight is the night for Suarez. 6/1 and Chase Eliott 6/1. Erik Jones has to start in the back, so I will see if his odds move once everyone figures that out. I'm guessing the 54 and 22 will be in the mix, but I like Suarez a ton tonight.

Pocono: Grabbed Truex and Kurt early at 7/1 apiece, so it looks like I might have bought a little low. Adding the 22 once the odds are up, and most likely will have to unload on the 4.

Looking to bounce back from a bad week last week. Hard to remember the last week where I was pretty much out of the running from the start.

Posted Tuesday, July 21, 2015 08:51 PM

The Mudsummer Classic

Always one of my favorite races to watch.

Austin Dillon 3/1 - Think he wins this thing fairly handily.

Erik Jones 7.5/1 - Can't remember the last time I actually got good odds on this guy in a truck race. Think he can be competitive, and maybe pull off the win.

One Indy pick so far for Sunday - Jimmie 7/1 - That number is way too high for a guy who always gets around this place well. I think this particular package is going to favor Hendrick and Stewart-Haas in a big way. You can increase the drag all you want, but the cars with the most power under the hood should dominate this thing. Cars may be closer together, but the 4 and 48 should be the class of the field. Only thing that concerns me will be the strategists doing things out of sequence and possibly pulling one off.

Xfinity cars are also using some sort of drag package this weekend as well. Probably going to have to see what happens in all of the practices to see what comes of this new setup.

Posted Thursday, July 16, 2015 10:39 PM

New Hampshire Weekend


Kyle +225, Brad +250  - Same drill as last week. Not much profit to be made, but there is opportunity nonetheless. I don't see how one of these two doesn't win.


18 - 10/1 - This has to be the last week at double digits. He said it himself, the way to get into the Chase is to lead the most laps and win. Extra seat time in the Xfinity race is always a plus at a track like this.

41 - 10/1 - Back to the regular rules package, and Kurt has easily been one of the top two or three cars on a weekly basis. Like Kurt on the short tracks as well.

11 - 12/1 - Another guy in the Xfinity race with the ability to get around the short tracks.

19 - 20/1 - Pretty sure I wasted my money on this one, but I can see him pull something out of his backside.

2 and 22 should be strong, but I think the four I took will have much lower odds on Sunday morning. 15 and 42 to finish top 3 may be worth a look as well.

Posted Thursday, July 09, 2015 10:27 PM

Kentucky Weekend

Been looking forward to this race for awhile. I think we get back to some decent racing instead of this single file garbage we've been seeing of late.

Another reason I am really looking forward to this weekend, is that I think I have this one pegged pretty solidly. This is Brad Kesolowski's race on Saturday night. You take away the advantage that the 4, 41 and 48 have over the rest of the field, and you do it a track that BK owns. Not sure what it is about the bumps on this track, but he knows how to navigate them. On top of that, look at where BK's odds opened. He hasn't been under 10/1 on the 1.5 mile tracks since the opening weeks. He's looked incredibly unimpressive over the last couple of weeks and he has relatively low odds for this upcoming race. He is running the Infinity race as well, so he is going to get the extra seat time and the Sprint Cup guys aren't getting any seat time with the weather. I'll take the 8/1.

BK 8/1

Kyle - 14/1 - Another guy running the Infinity race getting some crazy odds.

24 - 18/1 - Now his odds are just getting plain silly.

Practice will tell us a lot, so I am hoping that we at least get one round in.

Friday night - Taking BK and KB. Decent profit to be made if BK wins, and marginal profit, but profit nonetheless if KB wins.

Posted Thursday, June 04, 2015 09:51 PM

Texas Trucks and Pocono

It seems like we are all in agreement that Pocono is going to come down to some sort of strategy play. There is a driver that I think will not only have a fast car, but I think can play any strategy that is needed to get the win.

88 to win 8/1

22 to win 11/1  - Another guy that should be quick, and he seems to have learned from BK how to do that "hyper-miling."

78 top 3 5/1 - Just not sure these guys actually have what it takes to close the deal.

14 top 3 25/1 - Got this one early in the week. His odds to win the race dropped from 90/1 to 45/1.

16 top 3 30/1 - This guy is picking up speed and playing the fuel mileage game of late.

Trucks - Most likely I am late to the party, but I am taking Reddick at 5/1, and I'll go Crafton at 3/1. This should most likely be the week that Erik Jones closes the deal since I have been on him over and over with no love.

Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 09:59 AM

Dover picks

Looks like the Gibbs teams have found that "extra bit of speed" that they said they were lacking.

Hamlin - My book left the odds up during practice yesterday, and I am not one to pass on a book's generosity. Got the 10/1, but just not the 20/1 like a few of you got.

Johnson  - Doesn't look like he has the speed, or the long run ability of Hamlin, but it is still Dover. 4/1

Bowyer top 3 - The truck and Infinity races came down to a long fuel run at the end, and I could see drivers like the 19, 15 and 88, and even the 14 doing something out of the ordinary to get to the front. 30/1

McMurray top 3 - This guy always seems to be lurking at the short tracks. He is another one where a strategy play may get him to the front. Don't think he has anything for the Gibbs boys, but a top 3 is not out of the question. 12/1.

Posted Sunday, May 03, 2015 11:01 AM

Plus money run lines 5/03

28-34 +$405

Parlays 3-7 +$607

Cubs -1.5 +125 - Looks like we could have a shootout with the total set at 10.5. I will take the better offense and arguably the better pitcher.

Padres -1.5 + 115 - I am assuming Tulo will sit since it is Sunday, and that is what he does. Kendrick will be lucky to get out of the 4th, like usual, and then in comes the Rockies bullpen, which has been overused on this trip. I'll also play the -2.5 when I get it. Might also play Padres to win by 4 or more when that comes out as well.

Posted Sunday, May 03, 2015 10:47 AM

Talladega Guesses

I love this race because of the huge odds and the opportunity to bet a few more drivers than normal.

43 - 55/1 $20.00

13 - 70/1 $10.00

1 - 25/1 $30.00

16- 25/1 $30.00

17 - 40/1 $20.00

22 - 12/1 $35.00

Let the chaos begin!

Posted Saturday, May 02, 2015 09:42 PM

Best strategy to bet if you think Floyd wins in under 12

I really don't see how this doesn't go the full 12, but I am on the following:

Mayweather wins in Round 1-6 +22/1 ($35.00)

Mayweather wins in Round 7-10 16/1 ($60.00)

Mayweather wins in Round 10-12 22/1 ($55.00)

Posted Monday, April 27, 2015 10:16 PM

Bulls live moneyline +225

Banking on a Bucks meltdown.

Posted Sunday, April 26, 2015 11:12 AM

Dogs and + money run lines 4/26

24-28 +$429

Parlays: 3-6 +$657

Nats -1.5 +140 -

Angels -1.5 +140

Rockies - 1.5 +155 - Don't think they get this game in today with the rain.

Astros + 136

Posted Wednesday, April 22, 2015 09:31 PM

Archie Bradley runline +175

I will continue to preach that this guy is the real deal until proven otherwise. Other than Prince Fielder, I do not think there is a player on the Rangers that can turn on Archie's fastball. Add in the fact that the Rangers have never seen him, and I think we have enough to get the W on the runline.

As long as he continues to locate with his pitches, he will continue to roll. Don't expect the ERA to edge above 2.00 tonight, which should get us to the W.

Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 06:03 PM

Underdogs 4/20

19-22 +$351

Parlays: 3-5 + $697

Cincy +102 - I'll continue to fade the Brewers until they make me pay, or they switch the manager out.

Minnesota +138  - Kyle Gibson's ERA against the Royals is absurd. Twins shouldn't need more than 3 tonight, but that is asking a lot nonetheless.

Parlay Rockies and Over: 40 to win 93

Posted Sunday, April 19, 2015 10:21 AM

Underdogs and + money run lines 4/19

18-19 +$376.00

Parlay: 3-5 + $697.00

Nice to be three games under in the record column, but over a $1,000.00 where it counts most. Two of the losses were games where a five run lead evaporated.

Mets -1.5 +115 - Harvey actually looks like he is capable of giving up hits, but I don't think this Marlins team will take advantage. Hopefully the Mets bullpen can get it together today.

Pirates - 1.5 +125 - I think things don't get right for the Brewers until a manager change. Won't be shocked if the Brewers score two runs again at the most. This team looks completely lost and uninterested.

Posted Saturday, April 18, 2015 12:46 PM

Underdogs and + money runlines 4/18

16-18 +$171

Parlays 2-5 +$180

Parlay: over Philly/Pitt/Colorado $100 to win $517

Mets runline +150

Yanks runline +150

Pirates runline +155

Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 08:51 PM

Archie Bradley +160

Better enjoy these fat numbers on Archie, because they will continue to drop as the world catches on that he is legit.

Big number against an anemic offense, don't mind if I do.

Posted Sunday, April 12, 2015 12:02 PM

Underdogs and + money runlines 4/12

9-11 -$9

Parlays 2-2 +$300

Took a beating with the Rockies finally losing yesterday.

Mets +104

Rockies/Cubs over 10 Even

Milwaukee -1.5 +170

Parlay - Mets ML/Rox over 10/Brewer run line  - $40 to win 400

Parlay Mets ML/Rox over 10/Chisox over 7.5 +105/Brewer Run line $40 to win $820

Posted Saturday, April 11, 2015 12:32 PM

Underdogs and + Money Runlines 4/11

7-9 +$131.00

Parlays 2-1 +$340

Colorado Rockies Run Line - +170 - Back to facing a right handed pitcher, and having Hundley behind the plate should equal a comfortable win for the Rockies. This team has paid me well so far this year, and looking to go 5-0 with them.

Colorado Rockies -2.5 +230

Parlay: Under Cincy/SD/Tex and Colorado -1.5 35 to win 623.

Posted Sunday, April 05, 2015 11:15 AM

Opening Day Underdogs and + Money runlines

Cubs -1.5 +190 - I could see the magical story of the Cubs starting off well tonight. I don't buy them as a legit contender, but I do thing Lester can keep the Cardinals in check. Lean to the over if it goes back to + money.

ChiSox +105 -  I think the team in Chicago that will surprise and turn heads isn't the Cubs, but the ChiSox. I'll take the plus money in this matchup and wait for Ventura to have a middle inning meltdown.

Cincinnati -1.5 - +175 - Cincy is a team that I see making a huge turnaround barring injury. Cueto, plus this offense, make a solid statement tomorrow.

Colorado +140 - I think I am one of the very few who thinks the Rox will actually be respectable. This offense will be a monster with the key pieces healthy. Once Tulo gets hurt, it'll be all down hill.

Good luck on the season to all. Especially to those that don't take favorites.

Posted Saturday, February 28, 2015 11:15 AM

Xfinity Atlanta

Harvick - 4/1

Larson 7/1

Not a fan of going against the 22, but Harvick owns this place and Larson is primed to win a bunch this year.

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