Greedybastard's Blog

Posted Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:18 PM

My favorite week of the NFL betting season

Week 2 is always my favorite week in the NFL as we have one game's worth of information, but the large majority of the betting public is already set on how they think each team is going to play for the whole season. Lets look back at last season, week 1. Tennessee beats Tampa by a million, then travels to Cleveland and gets whipped. Tampa goes to New Orleans in week 2 and thumps the Saints. Chicago beats GB in week 1 and then gets absolutely hammered in week 2. The Bills beat the Colts in week 1, and everyone fell in love with Rex and the boys in week 2. That didn't turn out too well. The 49ers had that Monday night prime time slot and looked like they may be the darlings that the Vikings were supposed to be. The following week they get absolutely mauled by the Steelers. The Vikings went home in week 2, and beat up the Lions. I could go on and on, but lets get to the picks.

Carolina looked mediocre to average at best in Denver on Thursday night. Fact of the matter is, they ran into a lathered up buzzsaw and ran out of gas in the heat and altitude. Chip Kelly once again made ice cream out of horse poo and almost made the 49ers look respectable. Now the Niners travel across the country on a short week to face a pissed off defense and potent offense. I'll take the team with ten days of prep time. I see more of the same of last year for San Fransisco and the Niners getting completely blown out. Carolina -13.5.

Man, the Lions looked awesome last week. Going on the r... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 10, 2016 10:18 AM

UTSA @ COLORADO STATE

Week 2 is always my favorite week of college and NFL football due to the over-reactions of what was seen in Week 1. Colorado State could not have looked worse, and on national TV no less. I will go ahead and take advantage of the public perception that this team is just straight dog crap. Bobo announced earlier in the week that Faton Bauta is going to start, which he should have done against Colorado. I like the running ability that he brings to the QB position. Teams have to play disciplined defense now with a running QB at the helm. Much less risk of crucial turnover with Stevens not in the lineup.

UTSA is going to bring a drastically different offensive approach to this game than what the Rams saw last week. This should play into the hands of the Rams. CSU cannot handle any type of offense that plays with pace. Now, they will be facing a pro-style offense, with much lesser talent than what they saw last week. CSU's secondary got absolutely man-handled last week, but this week, the talent level is much more in CSU's favor.

I look for this game to be a fairly even game for the first half, and then CSU pushing UTSA around in the second half. Early games in altitude always favor the home team, expecially when the talent is fairly comprable.

Look for heavy doses of the CSU run game early and often, with Bauta able to run and throw the ball to keep drives alive. Warm enough in Ft. Collins on Saturday to assist in the fatigue of the Roadrunners. CSU bounces b... [More]

Posted Wednesday, August 31, 2016 01:49 PM

Colorado/Colorado State

I mis-hit this one right off the tee over the summer by thinking the Rams were not going to start Nick Stevens in this game. Everything is pointing to a Nick Stevens start, and I am stuck with a Colorado State +9 ticket from earlier in the summer.

One of the main perspectives on the Colorado/Colorado State game is that both teams "suck," and since it is a rivalry game, it is best just to take the dog and most likely cash the ticket. This year, you can throw that strategy out the window. Both teams are still unimpressive, but for the first time in I don't know how long, there is a clear difference in talent level. This will easily be the worst Colorado State team that they have had in the last five years, and this will clearly be the best CU team that they have had in five years.

The word I am getting out of CSU is that Nick Stevens will start at QB. That right there tells me all I need to know about which side I want to be on. I hate being on the wrong side of the turnover margin, and backing Colorado State, and a QB who has a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible time, isn't in my bankroll's best interest.

One of the largest concerns for me if I am backing CSU is how are they going to move the ball. The loss of Higgins at WR is going to be huge. But the losses that I think hurt more are the losses of Joe Hansley and Kivon Cartwright. Both were never spectacular, but they always seemed to be in the right place at the right t... [More]

Posted Saturday, June 18, 2016 05:03 PM

Jason Day live bet +1200

Looks like he is getting it dialed in, and we know Dustin Johnson can't hold a lead in the latter rounds.

Posted Saturday, June 18, 2016 03:31 PM

The return of Tim Lincecum

These are not the two most potent offenses today, but the pitchers in this match up make me feel comfortable with a little more unconventional wager.

Angels/A's 12 runs or more +250

Doubtful to me that Timmy makes it more than five innings today. Even if he is on with his 90 MPH fastball, a guy coming off of hip surgery isn't going to go long innings.

Triggs looks like he should be more than capable of giving up a handful of runs, and also shouldn't get much past the 5th inning.

I've got one pitcher fresh off hip surgery, and one with a sky high WHIP.

I'll need some average/below average offenses to get to it, but I think this wager has a nice shot of hitting.



Posted Wednesday, June 15, 2016 08:50 PM

I think I found this year's Cinderella in the Championship odds

To preface this pick, I really do not believe that my pick has the ability to win the National Championship, but I do think if they roll through their schedule, we may have a media darling that crashes the final four.

Boise State is returning a huge chunk of returning starters on a potent offense. I do not see one team on their schedule that can contain them. I think all of the extra time given to practice for the Poinsetta Bowl last year was huge for Rypien’s progress. Add to that, the return of McNichols and Sperbeck, as well as 4 out of the 5 offensive lineman, and I think this team will absolutely maul people on offense.

On the defensive side, there will certainly be some holes on the defensive line. I think there will be enough returning starters at LB and in the secondary to make up for the lack of experience up front. I see a lot of shoot outs with this team as the defense will be a bit of a liability.

Looking over the schedule I see:

@ ULL – Win in a shoot out.

Washington State – Any time coach Leach is involved, you have to worry, but I see Boise in another shoot out, and more importantly, they pick up a win against the Pac 12. This will look mighty nice on the resume.

@Oregon State – This will be a one-sided affair. Another win over a Pac 12 bottom feeder, but a win over the Pac 12 nonetheless. Now with 2 wins over the Pac 12, people will start talking.

Utah State – Is Chucky Keeton still at USU? This ... [More]

Posted Saturday, April 02, 2016 12:17 PM

Martinsville Truck Race

Betus left the odds up during qualifying, so I am jumping on a couple of numbers while they are still there.

The Field +1200 - This has Ben Rhodes in it. Truck seems strong on the short runs.

Christopher Bell +2200 - Placed this earlier in the week, and looks like it is a donation to the book.

Larson - +650 - Once the tires go away on these trucks, I think he grinds his way to the front.

Good luck fellas.



Posted Sunday, February 28, 2016 11:05 AM

Atlanta picks

Barely pulled a profit from Daytona Speedweeks as I skipped Denny for the 500. (+$25.00)

On to Atlanta where everyone is stating that the track is going to be slick today. This track eats up tires, so we will need the guys who protect their equipment.

Played three prior to qualifying

Carl - (10/1) - Carl is one of the drivers who should benefit from using these cars instead of the car of tomorrow. He seems to love Atlanta, and it appears Gibbs has a step up on everyone. $55.00

Brad (8/1) - I most likely will be on Brad on every 1.5 mile track where the tire wear will be an issue. He always seems to keep his equipment in working order for the long haul. $50.00

Denny (7.5/1) - The king of keeping his tires for the end of the run. $60.00

Truex - (15/1) - Added him after practice. Another driver that seems to love a slick track where the tires fall off greatly. $50.00

Good luck fellas, hopefully the momentum keeps up from Daytona.

 



Posted Sunday, February 21, 2016 11:37 AM

Playing these odds on Junior anyways

3/1 on a restrictor plate track is insane, so call me crazy.

$150 - Junior 3/1

$75 Jimmie - 10/1

$75 - Logano - 9/1

No matter what, I'll leave Speedweeks on the plus side.



Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2016 09:50 PM

The Duels

Denny Hamlin is paying for all of us to participate in the rest of Speedweeks for free.

Duel 1 - Shocked to see the price on Junior. Thought it would be about 3/1 or less.

Junior - 4.5/1 ($50.00)

Chase - I think Junior would actually be content to push Chase to the win if given the opportunity. I think he will be the real deal right from the start. 9/1 ($30.00)

Kes - Having Logano in this race won't hurt, but I think the even bigger key is having Blaney with him. Blaney is a great pusher. He will not try to do anything to jeopardize a top spot, so I could easily see him sitting on Kes's butt the whole time. 7.5/1 ($30.00)

Duel 2 -

So far the only pick I like is Kenseth. With the Gibbs squad almost all together, I can see one of the three getting up front and staying. 5.5/1 ($30.00)

Let's repeat Saturday night fellas.



Posted Sunday, January 31, 2016 01:42 PM

Sprint Unlimited odds are up

Odds for the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 are up.

Going back to some of the older rules packages, and I think this gives us an opportunity to get some of the old restrictor plate studs at some large odds.

Sprint Unlimited:

Junior - 6/1 (25.00)

Denny 15/1 (25.00)

Tony 20/1 (20.00)

Jamie Mac 25/1 (20.00)

Looking forward to this season. I really think Carl Edwards benefits from the new rules package. Also think the racing will be much better.



Posted Sunday, January 17, 2016 02:36 PM

Line for Carolina/Arizona is Panthers -4

FYI

Posted Saturday, November 21, 2015 03:40 PM

Colorado State at New Mexico

As a CSU fan, I looked at this game when I first saw the schedule and figured it would be a close game, which the Rams would end up winning. This was when I thought UNM was going to be a two or three win team.

Now that it is clear that the Lobos are at least decent. This game begins to get scary. Colorado State is easily one of the most undisciplined teams in the nation, and it shows with the turnovers and penalties. Turnovers and penalties have not been a part of CSU football in recent years, but this year, they are the key to a couple of losses.

Colorado State is usually decent against the triple option, but the triple option they usually go against has a slow QB (Air Force and New Mexico in previous years). This year, they go against a much quicker QB than normal in Lamar Jordan. If they end up seeing a lot more of Apodaca, then they will have to worry about a passing threat, which usually doesn't exist too much in this game.

Additionally, Pressley is going to put a ton of pressure on the CSU defense. What was a decent match up for the Rams, now has become quite tricky.

On offense, the Rams are starting to click much better than in the beginning of the season. I see UNMs defense as comparable to that of UNLV. Colorado State shredded UNLV last week, and I think they should be able to move the ball at will, but Nick Stevens has to be careful with the ball. Turning the ball over today will lead to a CSU loss.

New Mexico can win out a... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 31, 2015 11:08 AM

Interesting Underdog Moneylines today

Purdue +260 - Nebraska waits until they go on the road in conference to switch QBs. I think Purdue can control this game with the run. I am one who believes Tommy Armstrong was not the problem at Nebraska, but I will gladly fade this Fyfe guy.

Colorado State +140 - If CSU can limit the turnovers, which seems to be a big if, they can win this game. SDSU could easily win this game if they go through the air, but they will want to run and run, and I think that comes back to bite them today.

Georgia +130 - This is like the OU/Texas rivalry. The team that is supposed to win never does. Throw out the records and throw out what you think should happen. It is my understanding that Georgia's new QB cant throw the ball too well, so it will be interesting to see them move the ball.

NC State - +350 - I know Clemson is going to play a stinker of a game somewhere along the line. I'll take this sandwich spot as the game they lay an egg.

Miami +380 - Call it the cancer remission theory, or new coach theory, but I like the Canes in this spot. They still have the superior athletes to this Duke team. Tons of emotion spent by the Dukies last weekend, and the Canes could not have looked worse.



Posted Thursday, October 01, 2015 09:47 PM

Kenseth to win the Cup @ 5/1

Last weekend was solid with a three team underdog moneyline parlay hit in the NFL, and then hitting Kenseth in the race that afternoon. Thought I would take some of the winnings and unload on Kenseth to win the title. When it comes to the races left, these 1.5 milers are going to favor the 20 team. No reason to think Kenseth doesn't win either Kansas or Charlotte to get to the next round. Being strong at Talladega doesn't hurt either.

No reason to think Kenseth can't win Texas, and by then, it should really be down to the 20, 22, 48 and 11. I can't see him losing to any of those drivers at Homestead.

One huge wrinkle could be if the 4 wins this weekend. I am really thinking of adding the 4 for $100 and taking my chances. I think there are so many teams thinking that they can't let the 4 win this weekend that we see some serious strategy on the final run of the race. Everybody knows keeping the 4 out of victory lane this weekend guarantees a much easier path to the cup. I think the 20 team benefits the most from the 4 being knocked out.

Kenseth to win the Cup $250.00 to win $1,250.00

 



Posted Wednesday, September 16, 2015 10:44 PM

Colorado vs Colorado State

The Super Bowl has arrived for 'ol GreedyB. This is by far my favorite game to cap because I get to see a lot of these two teams both in games and practices. Being able to get a behind the scenes look at both teams usually plays out well when it comes to covering the spread.

In my opinion, this is going to be a one-sided affair, and it will go in favor of the Rams.

On the surface, this pick seems like a slam dunk, and I think it will be, but it'll take awhile for the Rams to take it to the Buffs.

For starters, I am going to rule out Rashard Higgins. High ankle sprains take too long to heal, and CSU will either play him, and he won't be effective, or they will do the wise thing, and sit him until conference play begins.

Next, Colorado State is going to rotate QBs. I usually hate this, and for this reason, I think CSU struggles early. However, I really think that Coleman Key will be the one that finishes the job for the Rams. He is a big kid with a huge arm. He is lacking in accuracy for the time being, but he is by far the most confident of the two QBs. Stevens is talented, but he misses way too many wide open passes.

Finally, there may still be a bit of a hangover for the Rams after last weekends ending with Minnesota. CSU lead the game for 40:40 and was pretty much in charge the whole game. Unfortunately they completely pissed down their leg when the stakes were highest. That was a physical game, and it took a toll, so again I... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 03, 2015 10:43 PM

Darlington

Xfinity - Denny 5/1, Joey 4/1.

Cup - Denny 7.5/1 and Brad 9/1 - Same rules package as Kentucky, but more importantly, a track that just chews up tires. I think I have two of the best at saving their stuff. Thinking the 20 may be another solid pick. Wanted to get these two in prior to qualifying.



Posted Sunday, August 30, 2015 07:00 PM

Colorado at Hawaii

Shoulda, coulda, woulda. That is how I would sum up CU last season. As terrible as this team was, last year the Buffs had UCLA, Oregon State and Utah on the ropes, and found a way to choke the game away. The defense just could not find a way to get a stop.

Enter Jim Leavitt. I have sat in on multiple CU practices this summer, and the guy has been dominate in practices. I find it hard to believe that Macintyre is even the head coach. Leavitt runs the show, and most importantly he has made the point a couple of times that he will put the defense in the correct position to succeed. So far so good. I like the experience returning, and more importantly, I like the man in charge of the defense. Colorado will still get gashed by the likes of Oregon and USC, but a lot of the middle tier PAC 12 teams need to be on high alert.

The next thing that has stood out to me about this CU team is speed. I cannot remember the last year where I was able to say that I wasn't faster than half the team. CU's receiving corps is full of speedsters. I am really looking forward to this match up with Hawaii, because I see plenty of opportunity for the long ball. CUs O-line is much bigger, and most importantly much stronger than they have been in the past. I am looking for the Buffs O-line to push Hawaii all over the field. Not only will this give Sefo plenty of time to sit in the pocket and air it out, but I believe we are going to see a huge night for the CU running game.

<... [More]

Posted Friday, August 28, 2015 10:29 AM

Season long Western Kentucky over thread

With a new baby boy in the house, and a job that keeps me away at least 50 hours a week, I am going to have to pick my spots quite carefully this season, and I believe this thread will be the easiest and most low maintenance way to make a profit. Each week I will be taking the WKU over, and I will be getting it right as it comes out. I will not wait for better numbers, and I will not flinch if they go into the 80s. This team is explosive on offense, and atrocious on defense. That previous sentence will be the basis of all of my capping on these totals. In my opinion, this is a recipe for overs covering in the 3rd quarter left and right. My goal for this thread will be conservative (+$500.00), but incredibly attainable.

Week 1 - @Vandy - Over 65 $110.00 to win $100.00

Here's to a profitable season.



Posted Saturday, August 01, 2015 11:25 AM

Iowa/Pocono

Iowa: I think tonight is the night for Suarez. 6/1 and Chase Eliott 6/1. Erik Jones has to start in the back, so I will see if his odds move once everyone figures that out. I'm guessing the 54 and 22 will be in the mix, but I like Suarez a ton tonight.

Pocono: Grabbed Truex and Kurt early at 7/1 apiece, so it looks like I might have bought a little low. Adding the 22 once the odds are up, and most likely will have to unload on the 4.

Looking to bounce back from a bad week last week. Hard to remember the last week where I was pretty much out of the running from the start.



Posted Tuesday, July 21, 2015 08:51 PM

The Mudsummer Classic

Always one of my favorite races to watch.

Austin Dillon 3/1 - Think he wins this thing fairly handily.

Erik Jones 7.5/1 - Can't remember the last time I actually got good odds on this guy in a truck race. Think he can be competitive, and maybe pull off the win.

One Indy pick so far for Sunday - Jimmie 7/1 - That number is way too high for a guy who always gets around this place well. I think this particular package is going to favor Hendrick and Stewart-Haas in a big way. You can increase the drag all you want, but the cars with the most power under the hood should dominate this thing. Cars may be closer together, but the 4 and 48 should be the class of the field. Only thing that concerns me will be the strategists doing things out of sequence and possibly pulling one off.

Xfinity cars are also using some sort of drag package this weekend as well. Probably going to have to see what happens in all of the practices to see what comes of this new setup.



Posted Thursday, July 16, 2015 10:39 PM

New Hampshire Weekend

Xfinity:

Kyle +225, Brad +250  - Same drill as last week. Not much profit to be made, but there is opportunity nonetheless. I don't see how one of these two doesn't win.

Cup:

18 - 10/1 - This has to be the last week at double digits. He said it himself, the way to get into the Chase is to lead the most laps and win. Extra seat time in the Xfinity race is always a plus at a track like this.

41 - 10/1 - Back to the regular rules package, and Kurt has easily been one of the top two or three cars on a weekly basis. Like Kurt on the short tracks as well.

11 - 12/1 - Another guy in the Xfinity race with the ability to get around the short tracks.

19 - 20/1 - Pretty sure I wasted my money on this one, but I can see him pull something out of his backside.

2 and 22 should be strong, but I think the four I took will have much lower odds on Sunday morning. 15 and 42 to finish top 3 may be worth a look as well.



Posted Thursday, July 09, 2015 10:27 PM

Kentucky Weekend

Been looking forward to this race for awhile. I think we get back to some decent racing instead of this single file garbage we've been seeing of late.

Another reason I am really looking forward to this weekend, is that I think I have this one pegged pretty solidly. This is Brad Kesolowski's race on Saturday night. You take away the advantage that the 4, 41 and 48 have over the rest of the field, and you do it a track that BK owns. Not sure what it is about the bumps on this track, but he knows how to navigate them. On top of that, look at where BK's odds opened. He hasn't been under 10/1 on the 1.5 mile tracks since the opening weeks. He's looked incredibly unimpressive over the last couple of weeks and he has relatively low odds for this upcoming race. He is running the Infinity race as well, so he is going to get the extra seat time and the Sprint Cup guys aren't getting any seat time with the weather. I'll take the 8/1.

BK 8/1

Kyle - 14/1 - Another guy running the Infinity race getting some crazy odds.

24 - 18/1 - Now his odds are just getting plain silly.

Practice will tell us a lot, so I am hoping that we at least get one round in.

Friday night - Taking BK and KB. Decent profit to be made if BK wins, and marginal profit, but profit nonetheless if KB wins.



Posted Thursday, June 04, 2015 09:51 PM

Texas Trucks and Pocono

It seems like we are all in agreement that Pocono is going to come down to some sort of strategy play. There is a driver that I think will not only have a fast car, but I think can play any strategy that is needed to get the win.

88 to win 8/1

22 to win 11/1  - Another guy that should be quick, and he seems to have learned from BK how to do that "hyper-miling."

78 top 3 5/1 - Just not sure these guys actually have what it takes to close the deal.

14 top 3 25/1 - Got this one early in the week. His odds to win the race dropped from 90/1 to 45/1.

16 top 3 30/1 - This guy is picking up speed and playing the fuel mileage game of late.

Trucks - Most likely I am late to the party, but I am taking Reddick at 5/1, and I'll go Crafton at 3/1. This should most likely be the week that Erik Jones closes the deal since I have been on him over and over with no love.



Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 09:59 AM

Dover picks

Looks like the Gibbs teams have found that "extra bit of speed" that they said they were lacking.

Hamlin - My book left the odds up during practice yesterday, and I am not one to pass on a book's generosity. Got the 10/1, but just not the 20/1 like a few of you got.

Johnson  - Doesn't look like he has the speed, or the long run ability of Hamlin, but it is still Dover. 4/1

Bowyer top 3 - The truck and Infinity races came down to a long fuel run at the end, and I could see drivers like the 19, 15 and 88, and even the 14 doing something out of the ordinary to get to the front. 30/1

McMurray top 3 - This guy always seems to be lurking at the short tracks. He is another one where a strategy play may get him to the front. Don't think he has anything for the Gibbs boys, but a top 3 is not out of the question. 12/1.



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