GunShard's Blog

Posted Sunday, February 03, 2013 11:56 PM

My personal rules on sports gambling.

Feel free to agree or disagree.

I been gambling since 2009, my personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Money management. Bet less than 4% of your total current bankroll per bet. Be discipline.
2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be a compulsive gambler by betting because it's your favorite team or for the action.
3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. Be unbiased.
4. Do your research by watching game footage, use trends and statistics on division rivals only.
5. Never bet on heavily juiced/vig lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
6. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
7. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
8. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
9. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games. Sportsbooks know this and favorites the home team.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the ... [More]

Posted Sunday, July 15, 2012 05:24 AM

How to be a Pro Gambler.

Do you have an edge at sports betting?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH-aCkLkpOI

NFL half-point value calculation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9wIWhx7940

Correlated parlays
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4ECjV8BOyU

Understanding teaser bets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ

Moneyline parlays on big favorites
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHfDPriLoKI

Knowing where public money is moving is also useful:
http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/Consensus-Main.aspx



Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 04:27 AM

How to be a good gambler.

1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at.
2. Bankroll management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field advantage tend to win games, especially in football.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action or just because it's your favorite team.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams. Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.

If you are extremely impulsive and egotistical. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".



Posted Saturday, November 05, 2011 05:46 PM

Week 9 Play: San Francisco -4

My record for this season:
Straight bets: 3-0 ATS
2 team 6 point teaser: 0-2 ATS
(From a different internet forum)

-3.5 if you got the line earlier this week.

1. The Redskins are missing key players from injuries.
Their best running back Tim Hightower is not playing.
Their best wide receiver Santana Moss is not playing.

2. The 49ers best pass rushing line against the Redskins poor offensive line, John Beck was sacked 9 times last week against the Bills.
49ers pass rushers this season: Aldon Smith 6.5 sacks, Justin Smith 4.5 sacks, Ahmad Brooks 4.0 sacks.

3. 49ers have a 6-0 ATS record while the Redskins have a 3-4 ATS record. The 49ers are on a 5-0 winning streak, the Redskins are on a 0-3 losing streak.

4. The Redskins have a QB problem between Rex Grossman 55.76% Comp / 6 TD / 9 INT and John Beck 58.82% Comp / 1 TD / 3 INT.
49ers have the better QB in Alex Smith 63.19% Comp / 9 TD / 2 INT.

5. Even though Redskins have home advantage. The grass outdoor stadium of the Redskins is the same as the grass outdoor stadium of the 49ers.

Posted Wednesday, September 07, 2011 07:30 PM

My NFL 2011 money line plays.

This is my 3rd season capping. Since I'm average at ATS, I'll make SU plays.

My own important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.

#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines and value accordingly.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.

Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:

1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment cha... [More]

Posted Saturday, August 06, 2011 03:27 AM

Total Quarterback Rating

This is something I saw on ESPN.
This is a better system than the old passer rating because QBR adds the real life game factors to the QB.
A scale from 0 to 100. 100 being the best, 0 being the worst.

Top 10 Quarterbacks based on this new rating.

1. Tom Brady 76.0
2. Peyton Manning 69.5
3. Matt Ryan 68.6
4. Aaron Rodgers 67.9
5. Michael Vick 66.6
6. Drew Brees 65.9
7. Eli Manning 64.3
8. Josh Freeman 63.5
9. Phillip Rivers 63.2
10. Ben Roethlisberger 59.8

Michael Vick had the perfect game @ the Redskins in the 2010 season. 99.8 QBR rating.

Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 05:04 AM

The NFL should air classic NFL games during the offseason.

Since the NFL has money problems. Why not air classic showing of the NFL, one episode a week from March to August on networks like CBS, NBC and FOX? This should help increase revenue.

Games like the Patriots vs the Giants super bowl game or the recent amazing comeback with the Eagles vs the Giants?

They should air the best of Monday night football, the 2003 Colts vs Bucs game or the 1994 Chiefs vs Broncos, Elway vs Montana for example.

Posted Monday, February 07, 2011 06:03 AM

Fade the player picture on this site, when it comes to the Super Bowl.

About the sports betting site Intertops.com

This is either a coincidence or the bookies are using manipulation that helps them make profit.

In the 2009 Super Bowl, Colts vs Saints. The picture of Peyton Manning was used as the "Sportsbook" icon on the front page of Intertops. Peyton Manning and the Colts lost.

And for this 2010 Super Bowl, Packers vs Steelers. The picture of Big Ben was used as the "Sportsbook" icon on the front page of Intertops. Big Ben and the Steelers lost.


Also in the 2009 regular season. The picture of Peyton Manning was used for the first part of the season, but after the dominating win of the Colts defeating the Rams by multiple touchdown. The picture of Tom Brady was used after wards for the rest of the season.

Intertops must have lost a lot of money on that Colts vs Rams game.

I should keep track of this each year.

If you think about it, TV commercials, especially movie trailers, use manipulation all the time to get you to buy their products.

Posted Monday, August 16, 2010 02:38 PM

Never bet the preseason or Week 1 of the NFL season

Here are betting rules that I follow:

#1. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#2. Weather such as rain, snow and wind usually make the team with the best offense wins.

#3. Home advantage, especially in a dome stadium. Will make the home team more likely to win because of the stadium crowd noise.

#4. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Bet what you need to bet and know when to quit.

#5. Future bets seem to be easier to win than ATS and ML bets.

#6. Pay attention to injuries to important players, most of the time can effect the outcome of a game.

#7. NFL teams after the Bye, especially favorites, will have a high chance of winning.

#8. Do as much research as possible.

#9. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! So you should have an account in multiple books.

#10 I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. Many say that the first few weeks of regular season is a guessing game.

#11. There should not be dramatical difference between your stakes. Don't place 2 unit on Game-A, 10 Unit on Game-B and 40 Unit then Game-C.

#12. Patience &... [More]

Posted Monday, November 16, 2009 09:11 AM

There are Warning Signs that can prevent losses

When the Saints fought the Falcons, the Falcons melted through the Saints defense with ease. So did the Dolphins in the first half. This factor should have made people avoid the Rams game.

The Raiders vs Eagles game from weeks ago could have been avoided. Knowing that the Raiders are experts at covering the spread as the large point spread underdog. They have an awful QB and offense, but thier defense is average and enough to stop certain teams.

Someone tell me the warning sign for the Cowboys vs Packers game, what gave the Packers the advantage? I thought the Cowboys can beat easily because of the Packers weak offensive line.

The Colts lost key players, which made the Patriots dominate the game and cover the spread. Except for the last minute, almost lost the spread.

The Chargers beat the Giants because of Giants injuries, the week before the Giants lost to the Cardinals because of injuries to key players. Eli Manning doesn't seem to throw the ball well when injured.

The Bears barely beat the Steelers because Troy Polomalu was injured for several weeks and was not playing, he is a key player to stop the Bears offense.

Vikings beat the Packers twice, Dolphins beat the Jets twice and possibly the Ravens will beat the Browns twice. When the first divisional game they encounter for the first time and dominate. They will dominate the second time. As long both QBs are the same from before.[More]