HOBO-BILL's Blog

CAPPERS BEWARE

By HOBO-BILL | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:46 AM   13 comments

IA syndrome…(Irrational Analysis)

What is this you might ask?  Well, it’s basically over-looking small details in the pursuit of an answer that you want.  Irrational analysis.  This pertains to capping a sporting event in a dangerous and sometimes unavoidable manner.

What happens is you may see an event, a line or an enticing number out there that looks really good to you and you will begin your research.  In the back of your mind you already have this pick “locked” and you are now looking for details to support your un-persuaded pick.  What will happen in your pursuit of self support is that you will overlook small or even large details that do not support you “lock” and may even totally disregard an item that any other person would “for sure” catch and reconsider.  The end is result most times is exactly what you looked over or did not consider.  Sometimes Lady Luck has a hand in it, but there is nothing you can do about her…..

I have been a victim of this myself in the past but have learned to check all aspects of a game in as much detail as I know how and to play the devil’s advocate to myself.  A “no-bet” decision is as fruitful as a “bet” decision in my book.  Many of you in the forum I know are very good cappers and probably have experienced this before, but for those who are new to the field, beware.

Remembering that there is no such thing as a sure bet and knowing that if you lay-off a bet, even for the smallest stat or detail; you may not win any money, but you sure won’t lose any.  That, in essence, is a sure bet.  Sort of like abstinence…..

Have fun with your capping, do it well, and make money my friends……

13 comments
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tmpeus78 says:
02/09/10 11:52AM
MrTTL says:
02/09/10 12:14PM
I always enjoy reading what you post Hobo.Thanks man
MrTTL says:
02/09/10 12:16PM
P.S.... your favorite athlete.. LMFBO
Spitfire15 says:
02/09/10 01:47PM
I do this all the time.  Can't make up my mind on an o/u but subconsciously I want something to push me onto the over, so I go out looking for something to sway me, ignoring under trends.  LA is 5-3 to the OVER on the 3rd game of a 5 game road trip?  I'm on the OVER!

HOBO-BILL says:
02/10/10 08:29AM
HOBO-BILL says:
02/11/10 10:40AM
powerade says:
02/11/10 10:59AM

   well said.....my main problem hands down along with money management....

When I just look at lines and thing each game out for a few minutes and make picks, I win.....but usually after being smart and doing that for 2 weeks I beging to look at stats and details and over analyze and then have 2 losing weeks worse than my winning weeks lol.

 good post

twoheart says:
02/11/10 11:42AM
Good stuff. Sometimes the best bet is one not placed!
MyNameIsEarl says:
02/11/10 09:08PM

 Great Reminder......

I have been fighting this more recently, should take a few days off......sort of a cousin of  "Paralysis by Analysis" .

HOBO-BILL says:
02/12/10 04:22AM
HOBO-BILL says:
02/12/10 12:28PM

ridgeway says:
02/12/10 12:32PM
Ap1Bfreetorun says:
02/12/10 01:17PM
Good post.  It is so easy to find reasons to support your preformed opinion. 
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User: HOBO-BILL
Joined: February 2010
Location: Hong Kong
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