HappyBreathNet's Blog
Posted Sunday, January 03, 2010 08:49 PM
Posted Wednesday, December 16, 2009 12:04 AM
Keeping it to against the spread bets from here on out. 8/8 in week 14. Our week 15 picks are now ready as well.
| |
WLT |
Pct |
Units |
Rank |
| ATS |
53-36-1 |
59.55% |
5100 |
1315 |
| O/U |
25-33-2 |
43.10% |
-5260 |
18599 |
| All Picks |
78-69-3 |
53.06% |
-160 |
9149 |
Posted Sunday, December 13, 2009 07:40 PM
Perfect week (8/8 ATS) brings us to 63% Against the Spread YTD -
Posted Wednesday, December 02, 2009 10:43 PM
| |
WLT |
Pct |
Units |
Rank |
| ATS |
44-31-1 |
58.67% |
3350 |
2269 |
| O/U |
25-33-2 |
43.10% |
-5260 |
18340 |
| All Picks |
69-64-3 |
51.88% |
-1910 |
14831 |
We've updated our YTD results for ATS through Week 12
Posted Wednesday, November 25, 2009 11:05 PM
We've made our
NFL week 12 free picks. There are six betworthy lines and four betworthy over unders. This causes a lower standard deviation and a
probability of a winning week of 68% even though the week has a modest 9.5% projected ROI.
Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2009 11:02 PM
We've posted our Free NFL Picks for Week 11. Our Projected ROI for Week Eleven is 16.7% on a total of 14 bet units.
The last few weeks haven't been great, but we're still at 61% YTD on our best bets and at 62/109 (57%) YTD on all bet units.
We've posted benchmarking comparisons to other oddsmakers and we've also posted comparisons to Brian Burke's NFL Probabilities.
As you can tell from the statistical analysis, we consider setting realistic expectations to be critical in undertaking any significant sports betting. Our requirements of our own system, and any valid system are:
* Results have a positive expectation value
* Results are in the same statistical population as expectations
So far our system of using the Adjusted Cumulative Distribution Function to make NFL bets meets both these criteri... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 12, 2009 03:20 AM
Our week ten picks are ready, and the lines are really favorable. Never before have we seen so many adjusted cumulative distribution functions above 60% (with raw z-statistics above 65%). The overall win probability for week ten is almost 70%. Compared with our season ROI of 8.6%, week 10's 13.9% projected ROI is especially attractive.
Posted Thursday, November 05, 2009 12:32 AM
We've made our NFL Handicapper's Week Nine Picks. We've also published our NFL oddsmakers probability distribution for week nine. We'd like to give props to another NFL oddsmaker offering free picks, Jaime at NFLPickles.com. He's running 70% ATS YTD (we're only running 60%). We do, however, have a larger sample size (53 / 89 bet units vs 19 / 27). We think, however, there is room for more than one oddsmaker in the sports bettors repetoire.
Posted Monday, November 02, 2009 12:28 AM
Week eight saw us go 7/9 on bet units, returning to the right side of the Expectation Value Probability Distribution for the season. We are now running 60% (53/89) for the season on bet units.
I know of at least two websites (mine and NFLPickles.com) that post absolutely free NFL picks with no membership required that consistently beat the spread. It got me wondering, why do most sports bettors still lose in the long run?
I avoided psycho-babble when I posted on Setting Realistic Expectations for Sports Betting, but now I have to resort to it. People want to feel responsible for their success. The ratio between the standard deviation and the expectation value is such that it is unlikely for an everyday Joe to make enough money to be more valuable that the entertainment he gets from making his own picks.
To illustrate, our system posts an ROI of 10 - 13%. If Joe Public bets $50 with our system, he can expect a $5.00 - $6.50 profit. If he used his... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:57 PM
Our NFL Handicappers Free Picks for Week Eight are now ready (they have been since last night). We actually post our NFL Free Picks every Wenesday, along with our Expectation Value Probability Distribution. If consensus among fellow handicappers and NFL statisticians means anything, week eight looks promising. The BOBB (Based on Brian Burke) model agrees with my model on all my bet units, as does NFLPickles.com. Jaime (Pickles) is the only free pick site I've found ahead of my 58% YTD performance on NFL Bet Units.
The system we've used for generating our BOBB picks (Based on Brian Burke, NY Times Fifth Down Blogger) is described in an article on Converting Probabilities to Pointspreads.
Posted Friday, October 23, 2009 08:11 PM
We reformatted our week seven free NFL picks page. We're thinking of doing our entire NFL Oddsmakers Free Picks site with the new format. Currently most of the pages (look at past week's picks) are still do the old format. Which do you prefer?
Other ideas for how to make our site more attractive / user-friendly?
Thanks,
Happy
Posted Sunday, October 18, 2009 10:18 PM
We were 8/11 on bet units (73%) and continue to hold 68% on best bets for the season (13/19 YTD). We're now running 60% YTD on bet units and have turned a profit five out of six weeks.
We did get shelled on our only best bet spread (we had two over under best bets which we won). We actually though Tennessee would put up a fight.
Even more disappointing was the Seahawks loss (even though our model had Arizona, we would have taken a loss for a model on this one). On the whole the model continues to meet expectations. YTD ROI is 114% (expectation value 110.4%).
Now that we have a better understanding of how to convert from a pointspread to a moneyline, we may begin posting some odds picks in future weeks (or we may just keep it simple).
...
[More]
Posted Saturday, October 17, 2009 01:05 AM
I've seen many people attempt to answer the question, "How do I convert a point-spread to a money-line?" (or conversely, "How do I convert a money-line to a point-spread?" The answers I've seen given have been unequivocally bad; but that’s because the correct answer is not simple, and people like simple answers.
To understand that a simple plug-and-play formula won’t do the trick, just check out the lines at your favorite sportsbook. I checked betus.com at 8:00 PM on the 16th of October and found the following lines:
St. Louis +9.5 -110 (pointts) or +400 (moneyline)
Jacksonville -9.5 -110 (pointts) or -500 (moneyline)
Buffalo +9.5 -110 (pointts) or +350 (moneyline)
NY Jets -9.5 -110 (pointts) or -450 (moneyline)
From this it is clear that there is more involved than simply knowing the point-spread to determine the moneyline (or more than just knowing the odds to determine th... [More]
Posted Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09:21 PM
We've updated our NFL Free Picks Results vs Expectation Values to include Week five results.
We’ve also now posted our NFL week six free picks which include five (5) bet worthy Week 6 NFL lines and three (3) bet worthy NFL Week Six over unders. There are three best bets (Ten +9.5, over 47 in NO vs NYG, and Under 37 in WAS vs KC). The expectation value distribution has return to a near normal distribution but the predicted ROI of 106.6% is the lowest of the season. Don't be too discouraged though; this is in part just because we've become more conservative in using an adjusted cumulative distribution function as our odds of winning each event.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During Week Five we were 64% on bet unit... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 08, 2009 01:03 AM
We've finished our week 5 picks ( http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_five_nfl_analysis.html ). We have a non-normal distribution in our expectation this week because there were three strong best bets and only two single bets.
Best bets included Minnesota to cover the -9.5 spread, Houston +5.5, and Under 40.5 in the Buffalo vs Cleveland Game.
We were more conservative in our Cumulative Distribution Function this week (probably why only five betworthy events), including the confidence in the calculation (instead of only the delta).
Posted Friday, October 02, 2009 06:46 PM
We have made our week four picks. We have quite a bit of analysis that we won't post here, but here is the summary:
Best bets (2 units each)
Baltimore +1 vs New England, Chicago to cover the spread (CHI-10), and over (45) in the Monday night game.
Other bets (1 unit each)
SD +6.5 vs Pittsburgh, Min -3.5 vs GB, Under (37.5) in the SF vs Stl game, Under (44) in the Ind vs Sea game, and over (45) in the NYJ vs NO game.
http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_four_picks.html
We made these picks on Wednesday. If there has been a lot of movement in the line, we'll normally skip the pick.
Posted Friday, October 02, 2009 06:30 PM
Parlay betting can be exciting, but is it a smart bet? The simple answer is that it’s irrelevant. Parlay betting essentially multiplies your action. This means that if you’re a winning player, you’ll win more and if you’re a losing player, you’ll lose more. It does increase the standard of deviation which makes it a riskier bet but potentially more lucrative. Over the long haul it won’t make a winner lose and it won’t make a losing player win.
The simplest way to envision how parlay betting multiplies your action is to imagine a two event parlay where you lay ten dollars down. The casino sees this as one certain bet and one conditional bet. If the first event goes in your favor, you lay $19 down on the second event. If the 1st event doesn’t go in your favor, you do not bet on the 2nd event.
Again simplifying, suppose you win the 1st event 50% of the time. On average you will lay $9.50 down on the 2nd event. This means that your $10 bet got $19.50 worth of action. A three team parlay would get $28.53 in action, four teams would get $37.10, etc.
If you are winning 50% of your bets, this increase in action increases your losses. A 10% juice casino could expect to earn $0.50 off a single $10 wager with you. A four team parlay would give them $1.85.
On the other hand, if you are a winning player, increasing your action can increase your win rate (but also increases the variability). If you are winning 57% of your wagers, a $10 straight bet has a posi... [More]
Posted Friday, October 02, 2009 06:24 PM
Psychologists and gaming experts have estimated that only about one out of every one hundred gamblers are profitable. So why do the other 99 keep gambling? There are many reasons but as statisticians we’re going to focus on one so that we can avoid falling into the same trap.
Ignoring the psycho-babble that says losing makes people feel more alive, we believe that people continue to lose because they believe they’re winning. This is primarily because of the high standard of deviation and the low delta needed to make or break the typical sports better. (Most, if not all, popular gambling relies on the standard of deviation to fool losers into believing they can win).
In order to avoid falling into the same trap, we have to be able to set realistic expectations and then analyze our actual results to determine if they are in the same statistical population as our expectations. If every casino that had a losing day shut down, there would be no casinos. If every loser never had a winning day, there would be very few losers. We have to use statistics to determine whether we truly have a positive expectation.
[More]
Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2009 02:58 AM