I don't hate the Dallas Mavericks. But i love fading them in certain spots. And if you were a bookie, you'd be up a decent amount on your ledger from the sheer volume of Dallas bettors this month.
Thats because the Mavericks, a notorious public team, are a pathetic 4-8 ATS in January.
Conversely, the Bucks are 8-4 ATS through twelve games this month.
Do your research and you will NOT LOVE the Mavericks. And you will end up LOVING the Bucks getting points tonight. Actually, i confess that i actually LOVE the Mavericks because this is one team i usually get a very good read on.
My original pick for this month's GOM was the Phoenix Suns when they host the Mavericks on Jan 28th for what will be the 2nd game on TNT''s Thursday night programming. I've been advised and reminded that the Suns do not win on this day.
The Bucks and Mavericks clashed at the Bradley Center early in the season. Dallas won SU by the score of 115-113 as a +1.5 underdog. Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS when revenging a home loss. This is a great situation for the Bucks tonight, agree?
Okay, so maybe you're not sold on a 18-24 team that have a lousy road record. Sure, the Bucks are 5-17 straight-up on the road; but they are 2 games above .500 against-the-spread at 12-10.
Still not sold on the Bucks? At the very least, i'd stay away from the Mavericks tonight. Mark Cuban is a happy man in Texas because his team is 13-7 straight-up inside the confines of American Airlines Center. Bags don't fly for free at AA and bags containing money certainly have not been padding Mavericks bettors' bankroll. Through twenty home games, Dallas is a pathetic 5-15 ATS.
Still want to bet on Dallas tonight? This trend should advise us that the Bucks seem to match-up well against the Mavericks: Bucks are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings against Dallas.
Situationally, this isn't just a great spot because the Bucks' youngsters have revenge on their mind. The Mavericks are coming off a long road trip that ended in New York where they blew-out the Knicks. This should be another sure-fire automatic win for the Mavs tonight, eh? The point is, the Mavs don't get up for these types of games. If there are trends that account for a good team playing down to the level of their opponent, these are it:
- Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Unload as much as you can on the Bucks tonight. Bring your money bags. Its on!
For the record:
550/500 Milwaukee Bucks +6½
550/500 Milwaukee Bucks (local line pending)
By the way. No 3/6/12 here. Most books opened this line at -7.5.
Line readers! You've got your wish.
BOL & cheers!