For those that aren't interested in reading a memoir, here are my plays for Wednesday:
1650/1500 San Antonio Spurs -1 -110
550/500 Rockets/Thunder Over 205½ -110
315/300 Atlanta Hawks -1 -105
250/200 Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline -125
105/100 Toronto Raptors +2½ -105
3 of the plays have not been officially wagered on yet but for recordkeeping purposes, i'll just go with those lines. The Spurs play will count under the GOM tab.
This is one of those rare days when my mind is clear and i seem to have a great read on some of these games. I'm seeing several clear-cut matchups and i feel i can go 5-0. Today will be one of those rare days i'm going to invest a few bills on a 4 & 5-team parlay.
Covers.com have these front-page articles called "what bettors need to know: {insert road team @ home team}". Add a touch of rudimentary journalism, they're nice reads but the numbers, stats and trends are things you should already know if you've been watching the games/scoreboard or do your research.
If i could make a compelling write-up on why i like a certain side or total, my article would definitely have to include such numbers, stats and trends and situations and injuries associated between the teams. In the end, its still a coin toss for most bettors; a guess on the outcomes of the player versus player matchups. Do you have faith in George Hill, Manu & Tim Duncan to keep rolling or do you supplant your faith in Derek Fisher, Kobe & Pau Gasol? What are the relevent situations and injuries: revenge? -- how will the absence of Tony Parker & Andrew Bynum affect each team?
The best pizza in the United States is in Chicago (Google: Great Lakes Pizza). Their secret: they prepare their crust one day in advance in a limited batch. Part of their secret ingredient is a custom made wood-fired brick oven but the gust of their success is: knowledge & preparation.
The best economists & succesful options traders are molded in the same way that great pizza is made: knowledge & astute anticipation of the market. Know what you need to know and be prepared. A successful trader has his timing down; and so does a profitable sports handicapper.
At the end of November of 2009, i began posting my leans on my big plays 1 month in advance; these are the games-of-the-month and games-of-the-week candidates. One month into the season i know pretty much all i needed to know about each team in the league. The leans become weaker or stronger plays depending on the situations, injuries and prevailing trends that arise throughout the month. Most of the time the play stands as the original notion of the lean was based on scheduling and matchups.
Two months ago, i couldn't do all of this bantering w/o sounding like an idiot if my big plays weren't falling into place like i expected. But since my nickel and dime plays are hitting at a 71% rate, i can let those numbers speak for themselves.
Two years ago, i would get stoned to death for explaining why i like a certain side or total beyond the confounds of stats and trends. Two years ago i would be crucified and scolded for posting nonesense about biorhythms and ephemerides.
For 3 years now i've been developing a
player rating system. I call it 'mojo' -- skill combined with luck. You've heard the game commentators mention this word, yeah?
This is the timing in my handicapping arsenal. Yeah, we all know that the Philadelphia 76ers suck. But if you pull the trigger on 'em at the right time, they'll go into the toughest place to play on Sundays and upset the Toronto Raptors. Yeah, we all know that the Milwaukee Bucks are really great against-the-spread and if you put stock into 'em at the right time, they'll go into Denver in the worst possible situation (back-to-back game for the Bucks & revenge -- Denver lost to Milwaukee in a previous meeting) and blow-out the home team. We all know why the Washington Wizards are an under machine; particularly so after the trades -- so why not ride a certain trend if the particular matchup favors that trend?
Today my game-of-the-week is the Over in the Rockets/Thunder game. We all know the Rockets have no defense and all they want to do is run because that is the Aaron Brooks modus operandum. I had this game circled 3 weeks ago, at the beginning of the month. The situation that has developed may have actually strengthened my lean. The Thunder came off a close loss against the Spurs 2 days ago. Now, i doubt Durant will be able to put up 40-plus points again -- but the Thunder have plenty of young guns that will be scoring at will against this weak Rockets defense.
The Rockets are 34-35 on the Over-Under so thats why timing is essential. The Rockets have good mojo right now. They'll continue to shoot well; even against a tough Thunder defense.
To be cont'd...