HappyKane's Blog

05/03 NBA - Got a very good read on the Spurs/Suns series: the Suns will win it.

By HappyKane | View all Posts
Posted Monday, May 03, 2010 02:54 PM   30 comments
10u 4-4 *** GAME OF THE MONTH ***
5u 16-3 *** GAME OF THE WEEK ***
3u 27-29 *** PICK OF THE DAY ***
1&2u 115-131
YTD +$2010
 
Monday's POD:
 
306/300 Phoenix Suns -4 -102
 
Top 5 reasons why the Suns will win the Western Conference Semifinal:
 
1) Amar'e Stoudemire versus Tim Duncan and/or DeJuan Blair. Tim Duncan needs to be the x-factor for the Spurs to advance. In the previous series, Dirk Nowitzki actually out-played Tim Duncan in terms of scoring. Tim Duncan and his key sub, Dejuan Blair, will have to outscore Amar'e to keep pace with the Suns 1st ranked offense. Star powers will shine and i don't see the Spurs' defense hindering Amar'e in this round.
 
2) Perimeter shooting can't be underestimated for this matchup. Jared Dudley -- the best 3-point shooter in the league could really put the Spurs in the dust if he stays hot shooting the trey. The Spurs' duo 3-point threats right now are Manu and George Hill. Matt Bonner does not take that kind of shot in the play-offs and Tony Parker would rather drive and slash. Unlike the Spurs, the Suns have 5 guys that can get hot any time shooting 3-pointers. The Spurs don't have that lock-down guard defense anymore like  when they had with Bruce Bowen but they still have a respectable perimeter defense. The Suns will out-score the Spurs in more ways than one but the 3-point shooting differential could be crucial.
 
3) Suns have the better bench. Tony Parker is the bright spot for the Spurs and thats about it. Parker needs to shine in more than just the 4th quarter to keep up with the Suns' bench scoring. I don't think i have to expand on this so i'll save my breath.
 
4) The Suns defense isn't that bad, folks. The Suns' FG defense is ranked 11th while the Spurs' FG defense is ranked 12th; thats as even as it gets. The Suns bench actually play pretty good defense. And that FG defense could get better because of Robin Lopez's presence.
 
5) Because my mojo charts say so. The same charts that told me that the Spurs would win the series over the Mavericks.
 
I'll put a few bills on the Suns series price at -125.
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30 comments
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nbafan88 says:
05/03/10 02:57PM
good luck HK

If JRich doesn't hit his outside jumpers this series is going to be over fast. Amare is overrated.
nbafan88 says:
05/03/10 03:00PM
who the heck is gonna guard Blair off the bench?
HappyKane says:
05/03/10 03:02PM

Admunson

Could be a wash. We'll see. Blair is pretty good at missing point-blank shots when he's not on his A-game.

special__k says:
05/03/10 03:03PM
I think we see a little Lopez in this series 
special__k says:
05/03/10 03:03PM
BOL HK
nbafan88 says:
05/03/10 03:05PM


i just dont see the suns winning in san antonio
sairjordan23 says:
05/03/10 03:10PM
nbafan88 why dont you think they can win in San Antonio, Over the past 4 times they have met them in the playoffs 3 times they have won there.
nurich says:
05/03/10 03:11PM
I like it HAPPYKANE..even more PHO game 1 FH -2

On Portland serie PHOENIX:

Lost FH by 1 GAME 1 @home
won FH by 13 GAME 2

@home
won FH by 27 GAME 3 @

PORTLAND
Lost FH by 4 GAME 4 @PORTLAND
won FH by 10 GAME 5 @ home
won FH by 12 GAME 6 @PORTLAND

Against

SAN ANTONIO:(Regular Season)

won FH by 15 GAME 1 @Home
won FH by 3 GAME 2 @ San Antonio
won FH by 9 GAME 3 @ Home

In 2008 Playoff PHO lost to San antonio 4-1. On that serie:

PHO won GAME 1 FH by 8

@SA
PHO won GAME 5 FH by 5

@SA
PHO lost GAME 3 FH by -12 @PHO
PHO won GAME 4 FH by 23 @ PHO
PHO

lost GAME 4 FH by 9 @SA

Also

during regular season PHOENIX has a record of 28-10-3 on the first half

winning by more tha 2 point.

I know it´s playoff time but i´m

sure phoenix will come strong this first game and more specific FH.

Good Luck

sairjordan23 says:
05/03/10 03:11PM

And that is the past 4 series they have atleast 1 road win in 3 of the series played

 

Ice4Blood says:
05/03/10 03:14PM

i think i like it... been mulling over this bet for a few days...

threw a little bit on the ML parlayed with Orlando tomorrow... still might toss something on the series...

Gold_Rush says:
05/03/10 03:47PM
I also like the Suns tonight, I will lay the points 
kaponofor3 says:
05/03/10 03:55PM
Great stats, nurich


littlemats says:
05/03/10 04:16PM
Suns
HUNG_ says:
05/03/10 05:54PM

SUNS   

 

 

 

Hungry11 says:
05/03/10 05:56PM
thx for posting, just played the suns
Ools says:
05/03/10 06:01PM

that can't be the best counter arguement against San Antonio...Blair?? This isn't the University of Pittsburgh

backdooor_cover says:
05/03/10 06:52PM
agree - i put 1 unit to win 575 that the Suns win in 6.
3BallBomber says:
05/03/10 06:58PM
BOL hk
MoneyShot says:
05/03/10 07:15PM

Mr.Kane, good to see you u.  I am a fan of Nash (kid canada) and am a fan of the Suns and i was really sad over the years when they got far or were predicted to go far in the playoffs but lost to the Spurs or the Mavs or whatever..  I just dont think their style ( i wish i was wrong) can translate to the playoffs. the slow pace half court style is usually what wins in the playoffs, the spurs have owned nashes suns over the years and nash is not healthy either. i think the spurs will win in 6 or 7 games...     Dudley is not the best 3 point shooter in the league by the way.. not in the regular season anyway.. but he has shot the 3 extremely well and he is at the top of the list.

GL to you Kane, i wish u the best and even thoughthe suns are the small favorite, i have to disagree with you on this series. I think the spurs will grind it out..It will be a close one though. 

Orangemen44 says:
05/03/10 07:15PM
BOL
ratherBgambling says:
05/03/10 07:36PM
rod_steel says:
05/03/10 07:49PM
theclaw says:
05/03/10 08:03PM
bob696969 says:
05/03/10 08:11PM
HappyKane, gotta say I agree with you on this.... all my friends are drinking the spurs kool-aid, thinking the old spurs are back, but I feel they looked alot better defensively than they are because the Mavs were not a good shooting team (contrary to popular belief), as analyzed by theclaw .....

.... BUT my only concern is that nash looked worn out by the end of the portland series.  hopefully the days off did him some good, and Gentry is able to play dragic atleast 20-25 minutes a game for the first 3 or 4 games of the series and keep nash to about about 32 minutes or less.....


808Tunda says:
05/03/10 08:12PM
glewis461 says:
05/03/10 08:34PM

Just my opinion, but I think you may be underestimating Blair.  I think DeJuan may be the key to the Spurs winning this series.  The kid has been tough this year, and this series is going to be his coming out party.  Spurs are just tougher physically and mentally than the Suns.  I am not playing this game tonight, but I think the spurs will win the series.  BOL.

702underdog says:
05/03/10 08:41PM
BOL Kane...Im with you all the way on the Suns
HappyKane says:
05/04/10 11:50AM

306/300 Phoenix Suns -4 -102 *** POD *** 

 

10u 4-4 *** GAME OF THE MONTH ***

5u 16-3 *** GAME OF THE WEEK ***

3u 28-29 *** PICK OF THE DAY ***

1&2u 115-131

YTD +$2310

MoneyShot says:
05/04/10 01:54PM

well done,  suns pulled it off.

Brocknroll says:
05/05/10 02:35AM
 You are not going to lose the Suns series bet HK.  My money and my heart are both in full agreement.  This will probably go the distance, but this is the year that Phoenix gets the monkey off their back.  
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User: HappyKane
Joined: October 2003
Location: Nevada
Team: Chicago Bears
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