12/14 NFL: A MNF service announcement/question: When was the last time the spread really mattered?

Generally, for MNF or most primetime games, you can bet the favorite or underdog with confidence knowing that either the fave will win in blow-out fashion or the underdog will win straight-up. That means, FORGET THE SPREAD! That means, DON'T READ INTO THE F**KING LINE! That means, THE SPREAD DOES NOT MATTER!   Sorry for the bold, but i'm sure there are discussions out there that have these "line-readers" trying to decipher the spread any given week... that just cracks me up sometimes. I can agree that it is helpful to read into line movements and certain spreads but the point is -- just take a look at previous primetime matchups. Did the spread really mattered?   So... people. Please. Stop it with the "read the line" crap, okay? Especially when its Monday night.   I was leaning towards San Fran in this one but since this particular matchup of divisional rivals have a revenge factor to it, i'm afraid to bet against the Cardinals. Especially given the fact that these redbirds do play very well on the road and they're generally money in such spots. This defense can make things happen and could very well shut-down Gore and Coffee tonight.   On the offensive side i don't see how the 49ers 27th ranked pass defense can contain let alone stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin; and don't forget Steve Breaston -- he's no slouch either. There really isn't a lot of 5-10 corners that can matchup with Fitzgerald and Boldin... [More]

11/02 NFL: MNF - Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

4-3 on Sunday.   5 units GOW 4-1 3 units POD 4-5 1 & 2 units 16-11 YTD +$1136   For some reason, MNF games have been really easy for me to read.   So, its no wonder i've reserved the best for last -- again.   My GAME OF THE WEEK:   505/500 New Orleans Saints -11½ -101   People are going to talk about the past. You can read it, you can hear it and you can see it, if you have the internet and a television, that is.   Lets talk about the future.   My top 4 reasons why the Saints will win and cover the spread tonight:   1) The only thing any handicapper needs to know about MNF is that the better team will usually win; even if that team is an underdog. Its only logic right? And if that team is going to win, they might as well cover the spread. Just take a look at this year's previous Monday night games and you'll find some examples.   And yes, sometimes the underdog is the better team. We all know who is the superior team tonight.   The key to beating the Saints is really simple -- outscore 'em. But on the field, its a whole different story. There is no defense in the league that can stop a very good offense. The Saints have proved this over and over, from week to week. The only way the Saints lose this game is if Brees and company will have a let-down or a sub-par game. According to my player [power] rankings, i don't see that happening.   I'll even venture to s... [More]

10/26 MNF: Love the Over 37 tonight and i'll wait to see if Ditka likes the Redskins or not.

4-3 yesterday. Still reelin' & kickin' from that Dolphins defensive meltdown. Dolphins +6.5 was lookin' good  until the pick-6 but i guess the books get "unlucky" also, sometimes.   Da Bears. What an awful pick; just so wrong on many levels. Now we (Bears fans) will need Green Bay to destroy the Vikings come November 1st. Ho-hum.   5 units GOW 4-1 3 units POD 3-4 1 & 2 units 12-9 YTD +$1008   3-units MNF play:   321/300 Eagles/Redskins Over 37 -107   Write-up: BecauseWussieman's card stinks.   Leaning on taking the points for a small play on the side but i'll wait until The King of MNF speaks.   Bio & ephemerides readings below.   PHILADELPHIA EAGLES OFFENSE:   QB B-Donovan McNabb; RB C-Brian Westbrook; RB C+LeSean McCoy; FB B+Leonard Weaver; WR C-DeSean Jackson; WR C-Jeremy Maclin; WR B+Jason Avant; TE C+Brent Celek; RT C-Winston Justice; RG B-Max Jean-Gilles; C B-Jamaal Jackson; LG B-Nick Cole; LT B-Jason Peters   PHILADELPHIA EAGLES DEFENSE:   DE CChris Clemons; DT A+Mike Patterson; DT C-Brodrick Bunkley; DE C-Trent Cole; LB B+Chris Gocong; LB B+Jeremiah Trotter; LB C+Akeem Jordan; CB C+Asante Samuel; CB B+Sheldon Brown; SS B+Quintin Mikell; FS AMacho Harris   WASHINGTON REDSKINS OFFENSE:   QB C-Jason Campbell; RB B+Clinton Portis; RB C+Ladell Betts; FB A+Mike Sellers; WR C-Santana Moss; WR C+Malcolm... [More]

10/19 MNF: Broncos @ Chargers - As if we need more proof that the Broncos' defense is for real.

3-2 yesterday.   5 units GOW 2-1 3 units POD 3-3 1 & 2 units 9-7 YTD +$356   Monday night in Southern Cali:   560/500 Denver Broncos +3½ -112 *** GAME OF THE WEEK ***   Write-up: Like money?Take the better team with the better defense.?   Chargers coming off a bye-week. Huge edge for Norv Turner, a master tactitian, yes - no? I don't think so.   Two things we already know: 1) this Broncos O-line is pretty good; 2) this Chargers rush defense is pretty bad. If the Broncos can contain Shawne Merriman, who is under-performing this year, the Broncos trio of tailbacks should have a decisive advantage over Tomlinson and Sproles.   Red-zone defense is where it'll matter most. I'll bank on the team that have only allowed 4 TD's over 5 games versus San Diego's 12 TD's allowed.   The 3rd-down percentages is also a glaring difference. Broncos only allowing 28% 3rd-down conversions; Chargers allowing 49%.   Broncos defense have produced 16 sacks through 5 games; Chargers defense looks pale in comparison with just 6 sacks.   Turnover margin: Broncos +6, Chargers +1.   For some games, the stats doesn't dictate the winner. But for this matchup, i think it'd be unhealthy to one's bankroll to ignore the stats.   Biorhythms & ephemerides readings below.   DENVER BRONCOS OFFENSE:   QB B- Kyle Orton; RB A Knowshon Moreno; RB B+ La... [More]

Saved the best for last. NY Jets @ Miami Dolphins: my game of the week.

4-2 on Sunday but lost my big bets. Didn't have a $500 play yesterday so this one is it. My game of the week is...   545/500 Miami Dolphins +3 -115     Introducing the #1 rush defense & #1 rush offense:   Thanks to the Steelers' defense for allowing the Lions' Kevin Smith and Daunte Culpepper to scramble for a combined 97 yards and a cummulative team rushing for over 100 yards, the Miami Dolphins are now the #1 rush defense in the league. Thats a stingy 61 rushing yards per game. After four games, the Dolphins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher nor any team to rush for 100 yards.   This Dolphins 3-4 defense was built to stop the run and they've done it well. There is great depth at the nose-tackle position and their linebackers provide excellent support at the line of scrimmage. Theres not much room to run north-south let alone sideways against this top-ranked run D.   That is saying lot after four games; four games against 3 playoff caliber teams with [former] prodigious rushing attacks. Insert former because the Colts and Chargers rush offense have been lackluster so far this season. And no disrespect to Buffalo wherewithal Marshawn Lynch is not to be underestimated.   No need to dabble much on the offensive part. Ronnie Brown is a stud and Ricky Williams is surprisingly still serviceable. Both are 5 yards or better per carry. And things will only get better when you have Bill Parcells runn... [More]

Master versus student, Ryan Grant versus Adrian Peterson. My take on tonight's MNF.

Medium play on the home team tonight:   315/300 Minnesota Vikings -4½ -105     Packers Offense:   QB A+ Aaron Rodgers; RB C Ryan Grant; FB C- John Kuhn; WR C- Donald Driver; WR C- Greg Jennings; WR C-/D- Jordy Nelson; WR B+ James Jones; TE B+ Donald Lee; TE C- Jermichael Finley; RT C- Allen Barbre; RG B- Josh Sitton; C C- Jason Spitz; LG B-/C+ T.J. Lang; LT C+ Daryn Colledge   Packers Defense:   NT A-/B+ Ryan Pickett; DE C- Johnny Jolly; DE C- Cullen Jenkins; LB A Aaron Kampman; LB C- A.J. Hawk; LB C+ Nick Barnett; LB C+ Brady Poppinga; CB B- Charles Woodson; SS C+ Matt Giordano; FS B+ Nick Collins; CB B- Clay Matthews   Vikings Offense:   QB C+ Brett Favre; RB C- Adrian Peterson; RB C+ Chester Taylor; FB B- Naufahu Tahi; WR B- Bernard Berrian; WR C- Sidney Rice; WR B+ Percy Harvin; TE A-/B+ Visanthe Shiancoe; TE C- Jimmy Kleinsasser; RT A-/B+ Phil Loadholt; RG B+ Anthony Herrera; C B- John Sullivan; LG B+ Steve Hutchinson; LT C Bryant McKinnie   Vikings Defense:   DT C- Pat Williams; DT C- Kevin Williams; DE B+ Ray Edwards; DE C- Jared Allen; LB C Chad Greenway; LB B- Jasper Brinkley; LB B- Ben Leber; CB B- Antoine Winfield; SS B+ Tyrell Johnson; FS C+ Madieu Williams; CB C+ Cedric Griffin... [More]