Generally, for MNF or most primetime games, you can bet the favorite or underdog with confidence knowing that either the fave will win in blow-out fashion or the underdog will win straight-up. That means, FORGET THE SPREAD! That means, DON'T READ INTO THE F**KING LINE! That means, THE SPREAD DOES NOT MATTER!
Sorry for the bold, but i'm sure there are discussions out there that have these "line-readers" trying to decipher the spread any given week... that just cracks me up sometimes. I can agree that it is helpful to read into line movements and certain spreads but the point is -- just take a look at previous primetime matchups. Did the spread really mattered?
So... people. Please. Stop it with the "read the line" crap, okay? Especially when its Monday night.
I was leaning towards San Fran in this one but since this particular matchup of divisional rivals have a revenge factor to it, i'm afraid to bet against the Cardinals. Especially given the fact that these redbirds do play very well on the road and they're generally money in such spots. This defense can make things happen and could very well shut-down Gore and Coffee tonight.
On the offensive side i don't see how the 49ers 27th ranked pass defense can contain let alone stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin; and don't forget Steve Breaston -- he's no slouch either. There really isn't a lot of 5-10 corners that can matchup with Fitzgerald and Boldin. The absence of Nate Clements is probably a big part of why this 49ers pass defense is suffering. Dre Bly is still serviceable but i think he gets beat. Shawntae Spencer is 6-1 and have good speed and is a decent matchup at right corner. I'm sure he's the one that'll give Fitzgerald extra attention. But its not Fitzgerald's speed that he's concerned about -- its his technique.
Flip the field, i think Rogers-Cromartie can take care of Crabtree. He's actually taller than Crabtree and can actually play as a wide-out; he just doesn't have Crabtree-hands. Otherwise there really isn't much more the Cardinals DBs are really concerned with than when they had to face Favre and his trio of receivers.
And then we get to Alex Smith versus Kurt Warner. I could never understand how this guy flourished under Urban Meyer's spread offense and couldn't do jack-chit with the 49ers. And this year, the 49ers did some outfitting with new offensive coaches and coordinators. Surprisingly, its the 49ers defense that have improved. Pop Warner is playing hurt and he might be due for a bad outing, according to his "star chart" readings that is. But i think i've learned my lesson going against a pious man like Kurt Warner. I went against him last week and he certainly proved me wrong -- or it was just a case of the Vikings sucking at the wrong time or me and the right time for the Cardinals. Maybe it could be just my luck that when i support him this week and he does come out with a disappointing game. It sure wasn't his "lucky" day on September 13, 2009.
Over/Under -- i'm partial to the Under. This could be a defensive struggle of sorts if both sides can't run the ball. But i can also see the Over hit because both pass defenses suck, statistically speaking. But when i sense that one team might not be able to score enough to help the cause, i can't take the Over. Cardinals could possibly put up 27 points tonight. How much will the 49ers contribute? I say much less than 27 points.
For the record:
309/300 Arizona Cardinals -4 -103