IAMKING's Blog

RL versus ML - schools of thought

By IAMKING | View all Posts
Posted Monday, June 01, 2009 10:30 PM   9 comments
I am curious as to what the different opinions are on playing the run line rather than the money line, if anyone has any statistics that can support their strategy or opinion. I understand the differences in the type of bet and the amount of juice, just wondering for those who often bet the run line, what guidelines do follow as far as % of your side bets are RL and why. Any feedback is appreciated.
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VegasMaxx says:
06/01/09 10:33PM
I look for +140 or higher on AL teams with high totals.  9.5 and up.
King_Victorious says:
06/01/09 10:37PM
i have no clue if these numbers are correct just spit balling here..33% of the games finish by 1 run 66% finish by 2 or more so u got to be on the right side if the game finishes more then 1 run.. so 66% chance of 1 or more runs then u got a 50/50 shot of picking the winner so 33% plus u have to have a record over 45%
VegasMaxx says:
06/01/09 10:40PM

Probability of MOV of 1
6.5 27.27%
7.0 31.66%
7.5 33.25%
8.0 27.18%
8.5 28.23%
9.0 27.47%
9.5 26.56%
10.0 26.46%
10.5 26.18%
11.0 25.78%
11.5 23.17%
12.0 17.48%
12.5 25.00%
Total 27.57%
VegasMaxx says:
06/01/09 10:41PM
Play the 12 spot
khoiquach says:
06/01/09 11:15PM
I don't know the answer, man.
ML is a lot safer than RL, I don't remember how many time they won by 1 run and I just kicking my head.
But the odd is really good, +230 or more, so I couldn't resist.
If you think they can win, just take the risk.

Got Astro ML and RL and CWS RL won tonight.
Thought Astro won by 1 and CWS not even gonna make it! But homers late in the game won BIG!



YEEEEAAAAAA!

Let's complete the sweep with LAD and SEA! All RL, too!

GL to us!


Johnnypicks says:
06/01/09 11:18PM
chi sox explode for 4 in the b8...good hit...but took till the b8
IAMKING says:
06/01/09 11:23PM
VegasMaxx

Thanks for the feedback -very concise and to the point, and makes logical sense.

 

VegasMaxx says:
06/01/09 11:40PM
No problem.  Twins at home last year were runline world beaters.  Too busy playing poker this year to do the research but you could probably find a list of the best runline teams this year pretty easy
gfoss59 says:
06/02/09 01:19AM
Yes, the overall team splits are on Covers, for example.

I've actually begun some careful studies of certain pitchers, teams, situations --

e.g., C.C. Sabathia a pretty good proposition runline.

(of his wins in 0809, more than 90 percent were runline covers. with the improved odds, that means you get a much higher yield. i picked him on the moneyline vs. Cleveland, for example.)

If you're interested, drop me a note. we can do some of the work together.

Cheers.

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User: IAMKING
Joined: December 2008
Location: Ohio
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
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